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000
FXUS61 KBOX 290227
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1026 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A backdoor cold front begins to drop S over E/NE MA. Ahead of this
front on Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop,
especially across western MA and CT. Expecting rain late Sunday
night through Memorial Day, heavy at times, with the chance of
thunderstorms. With tropical moisture streaming north from Tropical
Depression Number 2, there is a potential threat for localized flash
flooding. A renewed strong to severe weather threat is possible over
interior New England late Monday. Dry conditions with warm
afternoons follow Tuesday into Wednesday.  Unsettled weather may return
by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

1025 pm update...

Still very mild late this evening with temps mainly in the 70s to even
the lower 80s in Boston. Main story overnight will be a backdoor
cold front that will slip south into north central and northeast MA
by daybreak.  This will allow cooler marine air to work into this
region allowing low temps to drop to between 60 and 65 by daybreak.
Meanwhile, portions of western Ma and northern CT will see overnight
lows mainly in the upper 60s to near 70.

Despite some elevated instability, not much forcing for
precipitation overnight.  Can not rule out a brief spot shower/t-
storm but that vast majority of the night will remain dry.  Patchy
fog may develop in the typically prone locations and may end up a
bit more widespread across northeast MA behind the backdoor cold
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...

Cooler conditions push into N/E MA associated with a backdoor cold
front as shower and thunderstorm activity emerges across the S/W
interior. Two airmasses to contend with as there is some trickiness
in nailing down specifically where the dividing line will set up
especially with respect to temperature forecasts.

With confidence, behind the backdoor cold front cooler conditions
will prevail with NE flow and low clouds. A definite chill to the
air as it will be roughly some 20 degrees cooler than the day prior
with highs around 70 degrees.

S/W, warmer conditions with highs close to 90, especially in the
lower CT River Valley. Likely scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity with increasing S winds ahead of a strong synoptic
disturbance over the Great Lakes Region. Despite continued mid to
upper level ridging and limited upper level support, albeit
weakening, slightly stronger shear coupled with robust instability
throughout the entire atmospheric layer up to the equilibrium level
yields the potential for strong thunderstorms over N/W interior
portions of MA and CT. Storms have the potential for producing heavy
rain, perhaps even gusty winds and small hail considering the CAPE
and shear profiles. But again, missing the upper level support, much
of the forcing confined to the low to mid levels, especially more so
wherever the increasing S flow converges with high terrain in areas
of high instability. This coinciding with SPC`s Day 2 outlook of a
general thunder risk.

One final note concerning the thunderstorm threat, consensus of
models have some drier air working N along with the increasing S
winds ahead of the tropical moist plume for Sunday night into
Monday. Timing uncertain, it could throw a wrench in the entire cog-
wheel process of convection, pushing the focus area of activity
further N/W outside of MA and CT. Will watch this closely, but aside
the consensus of overall guidance has a potential threat for N/W
portions of CT and MA.

Sunday Night into Monday...

With convection concluding into the evening hours, becoming dry,
focus of attention shifts towards a moderate to heavy rainfall event
developing late overnight and continuing through Monday as moisture
associated with Tropical Depression 2 streams N ahead of a series of
trailing cold fronts associated with a synoptic trough disturbance
sweeping W to E.

Focus is upon areas of deep layer lift, specifically where the right
entrance region of the upper level jet aligns with mid level vortex
energy out ahead of the deamplifying trough pattern, and with
convergent low to mid level forcing along and ahead of an initial
sweeping pre-frontal boundary. This with a deep-layer SW to NE
training environment of warm-moist tropical-origin airmass with
precipitable waters up to around 2-inches, near-record highest for
the end of May looking at atmospheric sounding climatologies. H85
dewpoints in excess of 10C, mixing ratios above 12 g/kg, and some
elevated instability.

In all, and per a consensus of the guidance, expect a sweeping band
of moderate to heavy rainfall, W to E, with embedded thunderstorm
activity. There is perhaps some model forecast struggle with amounts
and location of heavy rainfall / localized flooding, given the
uncertainty as to how fast the cold front will sweep S New England
and subsequent time in which the tropical-origin moist plume
environment will be over any one region. But aside, the overall take-
away is that there is a flash flood potential especially for urban
centers should tropical-origin rains stream SW to NE over any one
area for a prolonged period of time, transitioning through the
period from early Monday morning into evening W to E. Keep in mind
this is quite an infrequent event for this time of year.

Now as this activity moves out, there is still the mid to upper
level synoptic trough disturbance and accompanying surface cold
front ahead of which partial clearing is forecast in wake of a pre-
frontal boundary and tropical moisture. A rebound in instability
beneath stronger W/SW flow and subsequent shear, SPC Day 3 forecast
has a marginal threat mainly N/W of S New England for strong to
severe thunderstorms with threats of heavy rain, strong to
damaging winds, and small hail. Timing is an issue as to how
quickly tropical- origin activity will exit to the E and the
atmosphere over W New England can rebound and destabilize. During
the late afternoon and towards evening, it is quite possible that
thunderstorm activity could enter W New England. Something to
watch out

Monday Night...

Convective activity withers with the lack of diurnal heating. The
associated cold front weakening sweeps SE across S New England
behind which W/NW follows pushing into the region much cooler and
drier air, while shunting tropical moisture out to sea. Will see
lows drop back into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Mainly dry with above normal temperatures Tue/Wed
* Unsettled weather may return toward next weekend

Details...

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Dry weather with above normal afternoon highs are anticipated
away from the immediate coast. Dewpoints mainly from 55 to 60, so
it will still feel humid.

Thursday into Saturday...

Forecast confidence remains rather low for this time frame.
Increasing humidity with south winds ahead of an approaching cold
front, especially Friday into Saturday. Timing this front remains
one of the biggest challenges. Showers, and perhaps a few
thunderstorms, possible. Way too early to try to narrow down the
timing, although afternoon and evening hours would be
climatologically favored. Kept just a chance for measurable
rainfall in the forecast, until the details become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Overnight...Moderate to high confidence.  Mainly VFR but may see
some patchy fog resulting in some MVFR conditions after midnight.
Also, backdoor cold front may allow a deck of 1000 to 1500 foot
stratus and perhaps some fog to slide into Northeast MA including
Boston near 12z.

Sunday...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back NE across E/NE MA with MVFR/IFR cig and vsby impacts.
Towards the SW of this wind shift, SCT SHRA/TSRA expected with
TEMPO MVFR/IFR impacts and possible 20-40 kt gusts. Focus around
midday into afternoon. S winds overall for those areas S/SW of the
NE wind shift.

Sunday Night into Monday...Moderate Confidence.

MVFR/IFR as RA/+RA with possible TSRA sweep W to E through the
day. Cig and vsby impacts with strong S winds gusting 20 to 25
kts. For those areas W that clear out earlier, there is the
potential for additional SHRA/TSRA activity late in the day. Low
confidence with respect to impacts/outcomes.

KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.  Mainly VFR overnight
but probably will see low end MVFR CIGS arrive near 12z behind the
backdoor cold front.

KBDL TAF...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

High confidence VFR. Low probability for MVFR in isolated showers
or thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...High confidence.

S/SW winds prevailing with gusts up around 20 kts and seas holding
below 5 feet through Sunday evening over the S waters. Some
visibility restrictions with mist or patchy fog not out of the
question with warm-moist air streaming over the cooler waters.
Whereas the E waters winds will shift out of the NE briefly
tonight and through Sunday before reverting back out of the S/SW.

Late Sunday night into Monday will see tropical moisture associated
with TD 2 yield rain, locally heavy at times, along with the
chance of thunderstorms across all waters. Likely visibility
restrictions in accordance with rain, along with mist or fog
forecast. Pronounced S/SW winds ahead of the front with gusts up
to 25 kts look to yield seas of 5 to 6 feet Monday into Monday
evening. Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

All this activity clears out late into Monday night as a cold
front sweeps the waters behind which winds back out of the W.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Tuesday...High confidence. Lingering 5 foot swell possible across
our southern waters , but should diminish by late Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence. Relatively tranquil
boating weather. Increasing east winds Thursday could lead to some
rough seas across the outermost coastal waters Thursday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for today, Saturday May 28...

Boston...          92 Tied (also set in 1931)
Providence...      91 set in 1931
Hartford...        93 Tied (also set in 1977)
Worcester...       89 New Record (previously 88 in 1929, 1911)
Milton/Blue Hill...91 New Record(previously 90 in 1929)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ004>007-
     009>018-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>005.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Frank/Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell
CLIMATE...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282346
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
746 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Any isolated shower or thunderstorm diminishes overnight as a
backdoor cold front begins to drop S over E/NE MA. Ahead of this
front on Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop,
especially across western MA and CT. Expecting rain late Sunday
night through Memorial Day, heavy at times, with the chance of
thunderstorms. With tropical moisture streaming north from
Tropical Depression Number 2, there is a potential threat for
localized flash flooding. A renewed strong to severe weather
threat is possible over interior New England late Monday. Dry
conditions with warm afternoons follow Tuesday into Wednesday.
Unsettled weather may return by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 pm update...

With sunset approaching fast, losing the large instability
generated in the heat and humidity this afternoon. Showers
diminishing. Mainly brought the forecast for the next few hours
back in line with observed trends.

Otherwise, some record-highs either tied or broken, please see the
climate discussion below. Highs well into the 90s.

Tonight...

While overwhelmingly quiet there are two areas of concern: the first
being potential remnant convection, the second low clouds and
possible visibility issues per mist/fog N and E as a backdoor cold
front sulks S into E/NE MA. Otherwise a mild night with lows in the
60s.

With any remnant convection should it persist after sunset, activity
moves E/SE with the mean wind across E/SE portions of New England.
Diurnal heating has concluded beneath the mid to upper level ridge
resulting in the boundary layer to decouple as it cools. Yet despite
there is still some elevated instability to work with especially if
a parcel were to be lifted above the boundary layer inversion. If
any convection should continue, a heavy rain and/or lightning threat
is considered.

With regards to the backdoor cold front, winds back out of the NE
behind which cooler air follows. Across a previous moist environment
with dewpoints well into the 60s, likely to contend with low clouds
and some visibility restrictions with mist / fog as was the case
upstream last night over Maine. Quite possible visibilities could
fall at or lower than 1 to 2 miles. Something to watch closely
during the overnight hours as there would be subsequent travel
impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...

Cooler conditions push into N/E MA associated with a backdoor cold
front as shower and thunderstorm activity emerges across the S/W
interior. Two airmasses to contend with as there is some trickiness
in nailing down specifically where the dividing line will set up
especially with respect to temperature forecasts.

With confidence, behind the backdoor cold front cooler conditions
will prevail with NE flow and low clouds. A definite chill to the
air as it will be roughly some 20 degrees cooler than the day prior
with highs around 70 degrees.

S/W, warmer conditions with highs close to 90, especially in the
lower CT River Valley. Likely scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity with increasing S winds ahead of a strong synoptic
disturbance over the Great Lakes Region. Despite continued mid to
upper level ridging and limited upper level support, albeit
weakening, slightly stronger shear coupled with robust instability
throughout the entire atmospheric layer up to the equilibrium level
yields the potential for strong thunderstorms over N/W interior
portions of MA and CT. Storms have the potential for producing heavy
rain, perhaps even gusty winds and small hail considering the CAPE
and shear profiles. But again, missing the upper level support, much
of the forcing confined to the low to mid levels, especially more so
wherever the increasing S flow converges with high terrain in areas
of high instability. This coinciding with SPC`s Day 2 outlook of a
general thunder risk.

One final note concerning the thunderstorm threat, consensus of
models have some drier air working N along with the increasing S
winds ahead of the tropical moist plume for Sunday night into
Monday. Timing uncertain, it could throw a wrench in the entire cog-
wheel process of convection, pushing the focus area of activity
further N/W outside of MA and CT. Will watch this closely, but aside
the consensus of overall guidance has a potential threat for N/W
portions of CT and MA.

Sunday Night into Monday...

With convection concluding into the evening hours, becoming dry,
focus of attention shifts towards a moderate to heavy rainfall event
developing late overnight and continuing through Monday as moisture
associated with Tropical Depression 2 streams N ahead of a series of
trailing cold fronts associated with a synoptic trough disturbance
sweeping W to E.

Focus is upon areas of deep layer lift, specifically where the right
entrance region of the upper level jet aligns with mid level vortex
energy out ahead of the deamplifying trough pattern, and with
convergent low to mid level forcing along and ahead of an initial
sweeping pre-frontal boundary. This with a deep-layer SW to NE
training environment of warm-moist tropical-origin airmass with
precipitable waters up to around 2-inches, near-record highest for
the end of May looking at atmospheric sounding climatologies. H85
dewpoints in excess of 10C, mixing ratios above 12 g/kg, and some
elevated instability.

In all, and per a consensus of the guidance, expect a sweeping band
of moderate to heavy rainfall, W to E, with embedded thunderstorm
activity. There is perhaps some model forecast struggle with amounts
and location of heavy rainfall / localized flooding, given the
uncertainty as to how fast the cold front will sweep S New England
and subsequent time in which the tropical-origin moist plume
environment will be over any one region. But aside, the overall take-
away is that there is a flash flood potential especially for urban
centers should tropical-origin rains stream SW to NE over any one
area for a prolonged period of time, transitioning through the
period from early Monday morning into evening W to E. Keep in mind
this is quite an infrequent event for this time of year.

Now as this activity moves out, there is still the mid to upper
level synoptic trough disturbance and accompanying surface cold
front ahead of which partial clearing is forecast in wake of a pre-
frontal boundary and tropical moisture. A rebound in instability
beneath stronger W/SW flow and subsequent shear, SPC Day 3 forecast
has a marginal threat mainly N/W of S New England for strong to
severe thunderstorms with threats of heavy rain, strong to
damaging winds, and small hail. Timing is an issue as to how
quickly tropical- origin activity will exit to the E and the
atmosphere over W New England can rebound and destabilize. During
the late afternoon and towards evening, it is quite possible that
thunderstorm activity could enter W New England. Something to
watch out

Monday Night...

Convective activity withers with the lack of diurnal heating. The
associated cold front weakening sweeps SE across S New England
behind which W/NW follows pushing into the region much cooler and
drier air, while shunting tropical moisture out to sea. Will see
lows drop back into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Mainly dry with above normal temperatures Tue/Wed
* Unsettled weather may return toward next weekend

Details...

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Dry weather with above normal afternoon highs are anticipated
away from the immediate coast. Dewpoints mainly from 55 to 60, so
it will still feel humid.

Thursday into Saturday...

Forecast confidence remains rather low for this time frame.
Increasing humidity with south winds ahead of an approaching cold
front, especially Friday into Saturday. Timing this front remains
one of the biggest challenges. Showers, and perhaps a few
thunderstorms, possible. Way too early to try to narrow down the
timing, although afternoon and evening hours would be
climatologically favored. Kept just a chance for measurable
rainfall in the forecast, until the details become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

VFR. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA erode SE across RI and SE MA
early with potential MVFR implications. Otherwise BR or patchy FG
possible East coast MA and NW MA. Light winds.

Sunday...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back NE across E/NE MA with MVFR/IFR cig and vsby impacts.
Towards the SW of this wind shift, SCT SHRA/TSRA expected with
TEMPO MVFR/IFR impacts and possible 20-40 kt gusts. Focus around
midday into afternoon. S winds overall for those areas S/SW of the
NE wind shift.

Sunday Night into Monday...Moderate Confidence.

MVFR/IFR as RA/+RA with possible TSRA sweep W to E through the
day. Cig and vsby impacts with strong S winds gusting 20 to 25
kts. For those areas W that clear out earlier, there is the
potential for additional SHRA/TSRA activity late in the day. Low
confidence with respect to impacts/outcomes.

KBOS TAF...VFR. Sea-breeze onshore, expected to erode as winds
turn back out of the W/SW during the evening. Through brief as
into Sunday winds backing E/NE during the day as cigs lower low-
end VFR possibly MVFR. Conditions prevailing into Monday, lowering
as RA/+RA move into the terminal during the later-half of the day.

KBDL TAF...VFR. Vicinity SHRA/TSRA this afternoon. Quiet tonight.
Vicinity TSRA possible again Sunday, but greater focus N/W of the
terminal. With any TSRA, TEMPO MVFR/IFR. S winds prevailing,
increasing ahead of RA/+RA expected early Monday morning through
roughly the middle portion of the day.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

High confidence VFR. Low probability for MVFR in isolated showers
or thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...High confidence.

S/SW winds prevailing with gusts up around 20 kts and seas holding
below 5 feet through Sunday evening over the S waters. Some
visibility restrictions with mist or patchy fog not out of the
question with warm-moist air streaming over the cooler waters.
Whereas the E waters winds will shift out of the NE briefly
tonight and through Sunday before reverting back out of the S/SW.

Late Sunday night into Monday will see tropical moisture associated
with TD 2 yield rain, locally heavy at times, along with the
chance of thunderstorms across all waters. Likely visibility
restrictions in accordance with rain, along with mist or fog
forecast. Pronounced S/SW winds ahead of the front with gusts up
to 25 kts look to yield seas of 5 to 6 feet Monday into Monday
evening. Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

All this activity clears out late into Monday night as a cold
front sweeps the waters behind which winds back out of the W.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Tuesday...High confidence. Lingering 5 foot swell possible across
our southern waters , but should diminish by late Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence. Relatively tranquil
boating weather. Increasing east winds Thursday could lead to some
rough seas across the outermost coastal waters Thursday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for today, Saturday May 28...

Boston...          92 Tied (also set in 1931)
Providence...      91 set in 1931
Hartford...        93 Tied (also set in 1977)
Worcester...       89 New Record (previously 88 in 1929, 1911)
Milton/Blue Hill...91 New Record(previously 90 in 1929)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ004>007-
     009>018-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>005.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell
CLIMATE...Sipprell



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000
FXUS61 KALY 281731
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
131 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Record broken at Poughkeepsie with a temperature of 91 degrees at
107 pm EDT. Records have been tied at Glens Falls with a
temperature of 88 degrees at 109 pm EDT and at Albany with a
tenmperature of 91 degrees at 125 pm. Refer to climate section for
details.

Hot and humid with mostly to partly sunny skies across the area.
Cumulus clouds developed mainly across the higher terrain. Only
some adjustments were made to today`s forecast. Area 12z
soundings show relatively warm aloft and convection this afternoon
and evening should be isolated without an organized low level
focus. A weak cold front to the north slowly sinking south is
quite diffuse, so again, mainly isolated to scattered
thunderstorms and with such high wet bulb zero levels, any hail
would be small if any and any threat for damaging winds is minimal
as well. HRRR developed convection to earlier again today and will
likely have coverage overdone. It does indicate storms are more
likely across the southern portion of the area. As of early this
afternoon isolated convection has developed across western new
york and the eastern 2/3 of PA. Continues to isolated pops across
the forecast area with 3-4 hour period of low chance pops across
the central/southeastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and across
northwestern Connecticut into the southern Berkshires.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The convective activity will die down again this evening with
mainly dry conditions overnight. It will continue to be warm and
muggy with lows only dropping into the 60s tonight.

Sunday and Sunday night look to be the most active period of the
weekend as the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
during the day with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon as MLMUCAPES rise to 1500-2500
J/KG. A backdoor cold front will be dropping southwest in the
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont as a cold front pushes
east from the central Great Lakes late in the day on Sunday and
into western New York and the Saint Lawrence Valley by late Sunday
night. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms
going into Sunday night. Have added enhanced wording for heavy
rainfall as PWATS rise to 1.5 to 2 inches late Sunday and Sunday
night with Atlantic moisture being drawn northward into our region Highs
on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s with lows Sunday
night in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Monday will also be fairly active as multiple frontal boundaries
are expected to cross the area. Monday morning may be more active
than Monday afternoon as the axis of high PWATS slides east on the
forecast area by Monday afternoon. Still expect fairly widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. MLMUCAPES are generally down to
500 to 1000 J/KG by late in the day on Monday. Highs are expected
to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

On Monday night conditions are expected to improve with any
lingering convection weakening during the evening with dry weather
expected during the second half of the night. Lows Monday night
are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the long term portion of the forecast should feature dry
conditions...with above normal temperatures for late May/early June.

On Tuesday, have included mention of isolated showers across
portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, as a secondary
cold front and upper level trough move across. Elsewhere...expect
dry conditions at this time.

For Tuesday night through Thursday, high pressure should build
across the region from eastern Canada, before sliding off the New
England coast. Expect generally clear/sunny skies.

For late Thursday into Friday, a frontal system will approach from
the Great Lakes region. The low level pressure gradient may tighten
between the lowering pressures to our west, and the strong high off
the New England coast, allowing for somewhat gusty south/southeast
winds. Moisture advecting northward ahead of the front could bring
clouds and spotty showers for Thursday night, with a better chance
of showers Friday as the front approaches from the west.

Temperatures through this period should remain warmer than normal,
with highs mainly in the mid 70s to lower 80s, except warmer across
the mid Hudson Valley. Overnight low temperatures should be mainly
in the 50s, although some 40s will be possible across portions of
the southern Adirondacks and southern VT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure off the eastern seaboard will keep a warm, humid
southwest flow across the region through Saturday night.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but
overall areal coverage is expected to be less than Friday, and
should remain confined to higher terrain mainly west and east of the
TAF sites. Have not included any mention of showers/thunderstorms in
TAFs at this time.

For tonight, areas of MVFR due to BR may develop toward and
especially after 06Z/Sunday, particularly at KGFL/KPSF. Some IFR
could occur, especially between 07Z-10Z/Sunday. Conditions improve
to VFR by 13Z Sunday.

Light/variable winds should become southwest to west at 5-10 KT
through this afternoon. Winds should become light/variable once
again this evening and overnight. Winds become south at around 5 kt
Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

Relative humidity values are expected to drop to 35 to 55 percent
this afternoon...recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight...and drop
to 50 to 70 percent on Sunday.

Winds are expected to be southwest to west at 5 mph today...light
and variable tonight...and south at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next five days is expected to be
highly variable as much of it will come from isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. While widespread hydrologic issues are not
anticipated, localized downpours could lead to ponding of water or
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
especially Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week, as
high pressure builds in and takes residence across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With a hot and increasingly humid air mass in place, here is a
look at some record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 28th...91 degrees 1911 - Record tied at 125 pm.
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 28th...88 degrees 1988 - Record tied at 109 pm.
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 28th...90 degrees 2012 - Record broken with a temperature of
91 degrees at 107 pm.
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January
1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281145
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
745 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot weather is on tap for all but portions of the immediate coast
today.  While the majority of the region will remain dry, isolated
showers/thunderstorms will occur early this morning and again this
afternoon.  A backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures to
eastern MA Sunday but it will remain very warm across the interior,
where scattered showers and thunderstorms likely develop during the
afternoon. Tropical moisture will bring showers with locally heavy
rainfall very late Sunday night into Memorial Day.  Dry conditions
with warm afternoons follows Tuesday into Wednesday, but unsettled
weather may return by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

745 AM UPDATE...

Cluster of showers/thunderstorms that crossed the Islands earlier
this morning has moved off the coast.  Other than perhaps a left over
spot shower or two this morning, dry weather will prevail for the
bulk of the morning.

Previous forecast on track: Expect temperatures to soar with very
warm airmass across the region. Noting H925 temps up to +20C to
+22C, and H85 temps at +15C to +16C early this morning. Good mid
layer cap in place, up to H85 as seen on 00Z NAM and GFS model
soundings, so this has to break in order get some convection
going. BUFKIT soundings suggesting the convective temps need to
reach the lower 90s to break the cap, which looks like it will
happen especially across inland areas. Some question as the the
timing of the precip, but have kept good continuity with previous
forecasts. Kept slight chance to low chance POPs for this
afternoon and evening mainly central and western areas, but can
not rule out isolated convection somewhat closer to the coast.
Will be tough along the S coast with onshore winds though.

Expect daytime highs to reach the lower-mid 90s, with some of our
long term climate locations possibly approaching or exceeding
record levels. Check the climate section below for specifics.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...With continued S-SW wind flow in place, low to mid
level moisture will continue to increase as dewpts will rise to
the lower- mid 60s. Leftover showers/thunderstorms may reach
toward the coast before dissipating this evening. May also see
some patchy fog develop across the normally prone inland valley
after midnight. Expect overnight lows mainly in the 60s, mildest
in the urban centers.

May see a backdoor cold front start to work southwestward down
from the Maine coast overnight. Model guidance suggesting winds
shifting to N-NE after 06Z around Cape Ann as well as temperatures
dropping to around 60, and may reach close to Boston by daybreak.

Sunday...Expect the backdoor cold front to push further S-SW
during the day. The big question will be where this front will
stall, as it appears it will stall somewhere across the region.
This will be a catalyst for convection though, especially near and
south of the front. Have at least slight chance POPs across most
areas, but looks like best shot for convection will be from W of
Fitchburg to W of Willimantic where better instability is also in
place along with the mildest temperatures. SPC has a mention of
general thunder for central and western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Highlights...

* Heavy rain showers Memorial Day with localized flooding possible
* Mainly dry w/near or above normal temps Tue/Wed
* Unsettled weather may return late Thu/Fri or next weekend

Details...

Sunday night and Memorial Day...

Any left over scattered convection across interior southern New
England will quickly diminish early Sunday evening with the loss
of daytime heating. The rest of the evening will mainly be dry
other than perhaps a spot shower or two, but some fog may develop.

Things then become quite interesting very late Sunday night into
Memorial day. Tropical depression 2 currently several hundred
miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina is expected to become
Tropical Storm Bonnie today. This storm is then expected to track
northwest and approach the Carolina coast Sunday, then move very
slowly northeast through the middle of next week remaining well
south of our region. This tropical storm will not have a direct
impact in southern New England, and none of Bonnie`s winds/storm
surge will affect our region.

While a direct impact will not occur, an approaching cold front
will pull a plume of its tropical moisture northward into southern
New England. PWATS approach or possibly exceed 2 inches, which
will be near record high levels based on historical upper air data
for this time of year. The guidance also signals the development
of a SSW 30 to 40 knot low level jet by 12z Monday which is 2+
standard deviations above normal. This all means we should see
bands of heavy rain showers develop very late Sunday night/early
Monday morning. Given the anomalously high PWATS combined with the
low level jet, there will be a risk for localized flooding.

While the models do a very good job these days in indicating
potential for heavy rainfall/localized flooding, they often
struggle with the location. At this time, appears that a lot of
the guidance is indicating an initial band of heavy rain showers
across eastern NY state towards 12z Monday, close to the
shortwave/better dynamics. Western MA and Northern CT may be on
the eastern edge of this band, so this will have to be watched. It
then appears that a second band may develop later Monday
morning/afternoon across southeast MA/RI on the nose of a 40+ knot
low level jet. Some of the guidance has this lingering into Monday
evening, while other data dries us out by then.

So in a nutshell, expecting numerous showers with locally heavy
rainfall. Given the above parameters, it is certainly possible
that a narrow swath may see 2+ inches of rain in less than an
hour. So while widespread flooding is not expected...there
certainly is potential for localized flooding especially if a
heavy rain band sets up in one of our more vulnerable urban
centers. Greatest risk for that appears to be in our far western
zones and perhaps southeast New England on the nose of the low
level jet, but again that certainly is subject to shift.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Dry weather with warm afternoon highs into the 80s are
anticipated away from the immediate coast Tue/Wed as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the region. Dewpoints will drop back
into the 50s though so will get rid of the humidity.

Thursday into Saturday...

Forecast confidence becomes quite low over this time. Upper level
ridge will eventually break down by the end of next week. Whether
that happens later Thu or holds off until next weekend is
uncertain, but once that occurs unsettled weather will return.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.


Today...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Isolated/brief MVFR-IFR
conditions in a few showers/t-storms but most of the region will
remain dry.

Tonight and Sunday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Local MVFR-
IFR conditions in patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday
morning. Low probability of brief MVFR conditions in SCT afternoon
SHRA/TSRA across the interior.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in VFR but uncertain if we see a few
hours of an ESE sea breeze late this morning or afternoon.  Low risk
of a brief spot shower/t-storm.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Low risk of a spot shower/t-storm
this afternoon.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Memorial Day...Moderate to high confidence.  MVFR-
IFR Cigs/Vsbys likely develop late Sunday night and continue into
Memorial Day.  This the result of low clouds...fog patches and heavy
rain showers.  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.

Monday night through Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence.
Lingering MVFR-IFR conditions possible Monday evening, but
improvement to VFR Tue continuing Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z...Expect winds and seas to remain below small craft.
Will see S-SW winds gusting up to 20 kt on the southern outer
waters. May see some patchy fog with locally lower visibilities.
Locally heavy rainfall in sct showers/thunderstorms through 12Z
on the waters near and S of Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard.

Today...S-SW winds gusting up to 20 kt through midday then will
diminish. Leftover isolated showers/thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall and reduced visibilities, as well as patchy fog
through late morning.

Tonight and Sunday...SW winds may gust up to 20 kt on the
southern waters this evening, otherwise winds and seas below
small craft criteria through Sunday. May see patchy fog with
locally reduced visibilities tonight into Sunday morning.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night through Monday night...Moderate to high confidence.
Quiet Sunday night on the waters other than some fog. We may see
some southwest wind gusts to 25 knots develop Monday morning and
continue into the afternoon with the aid of a low level jet along
with heavy showers/isolated thunderstorms. Marginal 5 foot seas
may also develop across our southern waters late Mon into Mon
night.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence. Lingering 5
foot swell possible across our southern waters Tue, but should
diminish by late Tue night. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure
will keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds with
good visibility into Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Some of today`s record highs may be challenged as temperatures
reach the lower-mid 90s.

Record highs for today, Saturday May 28...

Boston...92 set in 1931
Providence...91 set in 1931
Hartford...93 set in 1977
Worcester...88 set in 1911 and 1929
Milton/Blue Hill...90 set in 1929

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for MAZ004>007-009>018-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
CLIMATE...Staff




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280920
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
520 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather is on tap for all but portions of the immediate coast
today.  While the majority of the region will remain dry, isolated
showers/thunderstorms will occur early this morning and again this
afternoon.  A backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures to
eastern MA Sunday but it will remain very warm across the interior,
where scattered showers and thunderstorms likely develop during the
afternoon. Tropical moisture will bring showers with locally heavy
rainfall very late Sunday night into Memorial Day.  Dry conditions
with warm afternoons follows Tuesday into Wednesday, but unsettled
weather may return by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Strong low level jet /with h925 W-SW winds up to 35-40 kt/ along
with low level moisture and good elevated instability /TQ values
up to around 20/ caused a line of showers and scattered
thunderstorms that developed off the RI coast early this morning.
This line continues to push E near and S of Martha`s Vineyard at
08Z. Expect the line to cross Nantucket and Nantucket Sound as
well as the waters S of the islands, then should weaken with
sunrise as it continues eastward.

Also have noted a few showers that have moved into the mid Hudson
valley into the central Berkshires at 08Z, which may hold together
through sunrise across the CT valley of Mass. Noticing a band of
mid and high clouds crossing the region on IR satellite imagery,
but should push offshore by mid morning allowing for partly to
mostly sunny skies.

Once the sun does come out, expect temperatures to soar with very
warm airmass across the region. Noting H925 temps up to +20C to
+22C, and H85 temps at +15C to +16C early this morning. Good mid
layer cap in place, up to H85 as seen on 00Z NAM and GFS model
soundings, so this has to break in order get some convection
going. BUFKIT soundings suggesting the convective temps need to
reach the lower 90s to break the cap, which looks like it will
happen especially across inland areas. Some question as the the
timing of the precip, but have kept good continuity with previous
forecasts. Kept slight chance to low chance POPs for this
afternoon and evening mainly central and western areas, but can
not rule out isolated convection somewhat closer to the coast.
Will be tough along the S coast with onshore winds though.

Expect daytime highs to reach the lower-mid 90s, with some of our
long term climate locations possibly approaching or exceeding
record levels. Check the climate section below for specifics.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

Tonight...With continued S-SW wind flow in place, low to mid
level moisture will continue to increase as dewpts will rise to
the lower- mid 60s. Leftover showers/thunderstorms may reach
toward the coast before dissipating this evening. May also see
some patchy fog develop across the normally prone inland valley
after midnight. Expect overnight lows mainly in the 60s, mildest
in the urban centers.

May see a backdoor cold front start to work southwestward down
from the Maine coast overnight. Model guidance suggesting winds
shifting to N-NE after 06Z around Cape Ann as well as temperatures
dropping to around 60, and may reach close to Boston by daybreak.

Sunday...Expect the backdoor cold front to push further S-SW
during the day. The big question will be where this front will
stall, as it appears it will stall somewhere across the region.
This will be a catalyst for convection though, especially near and
south of the front. Have at least slight chance POPs across most
areas, but looks like best shot for convection will be from W of
Fitchburg to W of Willimantic where better instability is also in
place along with the mildest temperatures. SPC has a mention of
general thunder for central and western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...

* Heavy rain showers Memorial Day with localized flooding possible
* Mainly dry w/near or above normal temps Tue/Wed
* Unsettled weather may return late Thu/Fri or next weekend

Details...

Sunday night and Memorial Day...

Any left over scattered convection across interior southern New
England will quickly diminish early Sunday evening with the loss
of daytime heating. The rest of the evening will mainly be dry
other than perhaps a spot shower or two, but some fog may develop.

Things then become quite interesting very late Sunday night into
Memorial day. Tropical depression 2 currently several hundred
miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina is expected to become
Tropical Storm Bonnie today. This storm is then expected to track
northwest and approach the Carolina coast Sunday, then move very
slowly northeast through the middle of next week remaining well
south of our region. This tropical storm will not have a direct
impact in southern New England, and none of Bonnie`s winds/storm
surge will affect our region.

While a direct impact will not occur, an approaching cold front
will pull a plume of its tropical moisture northward into southern
New England. PWATS approach or possibly exceed 2 inches, which
will be near record high levels based on historical upper air data
for this time of year. The guidance also signals the development
of a SSW 30 to 40 knot low level jet by 12z Monday which is 2+
standard deviations above normal. This all means we should see
bands of heavy rain showers develop very late Sunday night/early
Monday morning. Given the anomalously high PWATS combined with the
low level jet, there will be a risk for localized flooding.

While the models do a very good job these days in indicating
potential for heavy rainfall/localized flooding, they often
struggle with the location. At this time, appears that a lot of
the guidance is indicating an initial band of heavy rain showers
across eastern NY state towards 12z Monday, close to the
shortwave/better dynamics. Western MA and Northern CT may be on
the eastern edge of this band, so this will have to be watched. It
then appears that a second band may develop later Monday
morning/afternoon across southeast MA/RI on the nose of a 40+ knot
low level jet. Some of the guidance has this lingering into Monday
evening, while other data dries us out by then.

So in a nutshell, expecting numerous showers with locally heavy
rainfall. Given the above parameters, it is certainly possible
that a narrow swath may see 2+ inches of rain in less than an
hour. So while widespread flooding is not expected...there
certainly is potential for localized flooding especially if a
heavy rain band sets up in one of our more vulnerable urban
centers. Greatest risk for that appears to be in our far western
zones and perhaps southeast New England on the nose of the low
level jet, but again that certainly is subject to shift.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Dry weather with warm afternoon highs into the 80s are
anticipated away from the immediate coast Tue/Wed as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the region. Dewpoints will drop back
into the 50s though so will get rid of the humidity.

Thursday into Saturday...

Forecast confidence becomes quite low over this time. Upper level
ridge will eventually break down by the end of next week. Whether
that happens later Thu or holds off until next weekend is
uncertain, but once that occurs unsettled weather will return.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. May see
local visibilities to MVFR-IFR in any patchy fog that may develop
across the locally prone inland valleys and along the immediate
coast. Sct showers/tstms with local IFR conditions passing near
Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket, which should start to weaken
around 12Z.

Today...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Low risk for MVFR-IFR
conditions in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon away from the coast.

Tonight and Sunday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Local MVFR-
IFR conditions in patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday
morning. Low probability of brief MVFR conditions in SCT afternoon
SHRA/TSRA across the interior.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Memorial Day...Moderate to high confidence.  MVFR-
IFR Cigs/Vsbys likely develop late Sunday night and continue into
Memorial Day.  This the result of low clouds...fog patches and heavy
rain showers.  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.

Monday night through Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence.
Lingering MVFR-IFR conditions possible Monday evening, but
improvement to VFR Tue continuing Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z...Expect winds and seas to remain below small craft.
Will see S-SW winds gusting up to 20 kt on the southern outer
waters. May see some patchy fog with locally lower visibilities.
Locally heavy rainfall in sct showers/thunderstorms through 12Z
on the waters near and S of Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard.

Today...S-SW winds gusting up to 20 kt through midday then will
diminish. Leftover isolated showers/thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall and reduced visibilities, as well as patchy fog
through late morning.

Tonight and Sunday...SW winds may gust up to 20 kt on the
southern waters this evening, otherwise winds and seas below
small craft criteria through Sunday. May see patchy fog with
locally reduced visibilities tonight into Sunday morning.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night through Monday night...Moderate to high confidence.
Quiet Sunday night on the waters other than some fog. We may see
some southwest wind gusts to 25 knots develop Monday morning and
continue into the afternoon with the aid of a low level jet along
with heavy showers/isolated thunderstorms. Marginal 5 foot seas
may also develop across our southern waters late Mon into Mon
night.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence. Lingering 5
foot swell possible across our southern waters Tue, but should
diminish by late Tue night. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure
will keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds with
good visibility into Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Some of today`s record highs may be challenged as temperatures
reach the lower-mid 90s.

Record highs for today, Saturday May 28...

Boston...92 set in 1931
Providence...91 set in 1931
Hartford...93 set in 1977
Worcester...88 set in 1911 and 1929
Milton/Blue Hill...90 set in 1929

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ003-004.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for MAZ004>007-009>018-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
CLIMATE...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280844
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
443 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot weather is on tap for all but portions of the immediate coast
today.  While the majority of the region will remain dry, isolated
showers/thunderstorms will occur early this morning and again this
afternoon.  A backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures to
eastern MA Sunday but it will remain very warm across the interior,
where scattered showers and thunderstorms likely develop during the
afternoon. Tropical moisture will bring showers with locally heavy
rainfall very late Sunday night into Memorial Day.  Dry conditions
with warm afternoons follows Tuesday into Wednesday, but unsettled
weather may return by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1150 PM Update...

A few spotty showers, one with a quick rumble of thunder, have
crossed into far NW Mass at 03Z. Expect these to weaken as they
shift E over the next few hours.

00Z high resolution models as well as the GFS/NAM are all
indicating the development of scattered showers/thunderstorms
around or after 06Z as a strong W-SW low level jet moves near and
just S of the S coast. Starting to note a few showers developing
on the twin forks of Long Island on latest KBOX 88D radar.

Will also see fog redevelop across the southern waters, possibly
reaching the S coast, Cape Cod and the islands overnight. GOES-E
experimental aviation MVFR/IFR/LIFR percentages, and start to see
at least MVFR conditions could move into the Cape and islands
overnight as the low clouds and fog develop.

Remainder of the forecast looks in pretty good shape, but have
updated to bring conditions current.

Previous Discussion...

With light winds and increasing moisture in the air, we are
likely to have another round of fog. This will favor coastal areas
as well as typical inland fog spots. The fog may be locally dense,
and may require a dense fog advisory once confidence is higher in
its location.

Otherwise, mins only fall into the low-mid 60s again tonight
thanks to high crossover temps and lingering clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Saturday...
Mid lvl ridging continues with rising heights across the region
and plenty of sunshine. No trouble mixing to at least H85 where
temps will approach +16C by afternoon peak heating. Weak return
flow will limit sea breezes to mainly the south coast. Therefore,
still expecting probably the hottest day we have seen thus far
with highs topping out in the low-mid 90s across much of the
region away from S coastal areas. Dwpts will remain elevated as
well, mainly in the low-mid 60s even during peak mixing.

The other issue will be convective potential. Plenty of SFC/mixed
lvl CAPE would be available, except the rising heights and modest
subsidence it/s associated with is likely to yield a slight
capping inversion and limit updraft development. Lapse rates are
modest, mainly approaching 6.0C/KM in the mid lvls, but this is
most likely a reflection of the mid lvl dry air. Even the latest
12Z ECMWF now is almost NIL for QPF during the afternoon and
evening hours. Definitely not going NIL given the rising PWATs and
potential energy available if the cap is broken, but will limit it
mainly to slight and low end chance across the terrain and along
developing sea breezes where at least some lift will be available.
T-storms will be mainly airmass-type as shear is also quite
limited.

Saturday night...
Continued increase in low-mid lvl moisture will actually help to
erode the cap and allow for some maintenance of any shra/t-storms
that develop, so will be slow to drop overnight POPs. Otherwise,
the increase in moisture beneath the inversion increases the risk
for overnight fog development which once again has the risk of
being locally dense at times and may require headlines. Otherwise,
another mild night with mins only falling back into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Highlights...

* Heavy rain showers Memorial Day with localized flooding possible
* Mainly dry w/near or above normal temps Tue/Wed
* Unsettled weather may return late Thu/Fri or next weekend

Details...

Sunday night and Memorial Day...

Any left over scattered convection across interior southern New
England will quickly diminish early Sunday evening with the loss of
daytime heating.  The rest of the evening will mainly be dry other
than perhaps a spot shower or two, but some fog may develop.

Things then become quite interesting very late Sunday night into
Memorial day.  Tropical depression 2 currently several hundred miles
southeast of Charleston South Carolina is expected to become
Tropical Storm Bonnie today.  This storm is then expected to track
northwest and approach the Carolina coast Sunday, then move very
slowly northeast through the middle of next week remaining well
south of our region.  This tropical storm will not have a direct
impact in southern New England, and none of Bonnie`s winds/storm
surge will affect our region.

While a direct impact will not occur, an approaching cold front will
pull a plume of its tropical moisture northward into southern New
England. PWATS approach or possibly exceed 2 inches, which will be
near record high levels based on historical upper air data for this
time of year.  The guidance also signals the development of a SSW 30
to 40 knot low level jet by 12z Monday which is 2+ standard
deviations above normal.  This all means we should see bands of
heavy rain showers develop very late Sunday night/early Monday
morning.  Given the anomalously high PWATS combined with the low
level jet, there will be a risk for localized flooding.

While the models do a very good job these days in indicating
potential for heavy rainfall/localized flooding, they often struggle
with the location.  At this time, appears that a lot of the guidance
is indicating an initial band of heavy rain showers across eastern
NY state towards 12z Monday, close to the shortwave/better dynamics.
Western MA and Northern CT may be on the eastern edge of this band,
so this will have to be watched. It then appears that a second band
may develop later Monday morning/afternoon across southeast MA/RI on
the nose of a 40+ knot low level jet.  Some of the guidance has this
lingering into Monday evening, while other data dries us out by then.

So in a nutshell, expecting numerous showers with locally heavy
rainfall.  Given the above parameters, it is certainly possible that
a narrow swath may see 2+ inches of rain in less than an hour. So
while widespread flooding is not expected...there certainly is
potential for localized flooding especially if a heavy rain band
sets up in one of our more vulnerable urban centers.  Greatest risk
for that appears to be in our far western zones and perhaps
southeast New England on the nose of the low level jet, but again
that certainly is subject to shift.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Dry weather with warm afternoon highs into the 80s are anticipated
away from the immediate coast Tue/Wed as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region.  Dewpoints will drop back into the 50s
though so will get rid of the humidity.

Thursday into Saturday...

Forecast confidence becomes quite low over this time.  Upper level
ridge will eventually break down by the end of next week.  Whether
that happens later Thu or holds off until next weekend is uncertain,
but once that occurs unsettled weather will return.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR through about 06Z
inland, then patchy fog possible especially at typically prone
airports with localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Another risk for
LIFR along Cape Cod and Island terminals overnight into Saturday
morning.

Saturday and Saturday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR.
Local MVFR-IFR conditions in patchy fog through mid morning. Low
probability of brief MVFR conditions in SCT afternoon SHRA/TSRA
across the interior. Another risk for overnight fog tomorrow
night.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Memorial Day...Moderate to high confidence.  MVFR-
IFR Cigs/Vsbys likely develop late Sunday night and continue into
Memorial Day.  This the result of low clouds...fog patches and heavy
rain showers.  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.

Monday night through Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence.
Lingering MVFR-IFR conditions possible Monday evening, but
improvement to VFR Tue continuing Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Overnight...
Winds and seas remain below small craft criteria. There will be
some fog to contend with. The fog could be quite dense at times
and may take some time to burn off even after sunrise.

Saturday and Saturday night...
Seas on the southern outer waters may briefly reach 5 feet at
times but should diminish again at night. South to southwest
winds will remain less than 20 knots. More fog may develop
Saturday night.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night through Monday night...Moderate to high confidence.
Quiet Sunday night on the waters other than some fog.  We may see
some southwest wind gusts to 25 knots develop Monday morning and
continue into the afternoon with the aid of a low level jet along
with heavy showers/isolated thunderstorms. Marginal 5 foot seas may
also develop across our southern waters late Mon into Mon night.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence.  Lingering 5
foot swell possible across our southern waters Tue, but should
diminish by late Tue night.  Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure
will keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds with good
visibility into Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Some record highs may be challenged as temperatures will be the
warmest on Saturday.

Record highs for Saturday May 28...

Boston...92 set in 1931
Providence...91 set in 1931
Hartford...93 set in 1977
Worcester...88 set in 1911 and 1929
Milton/Blue Hill...90 set in 1929

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ003-004.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for MAZ004>007-009>018-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT-Coming Soon
SHORT TERM...EVT-Coming Soon
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
CLIMATE...Staff




000
FXUS61 KALY 280511
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...A stationary frontal boundary lay draped
across eastern New England while a weak trough of low pressure was
across central New York. Most of the shower activity has ended
leaving the forecast area with a very mild and muggy night with
some patchy fog/haze possible overnight. Lows will be in the mid
to upper 60s for much of the area.

The upper level ridge axis is forecast to strengthen further,
which will tend to inhibit convection potential. Strong heating
and increasing low level moisture will still result in isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating from late
morning into the afternoon hours. Again will only mention 20-30
pops with limited coverage across the area, with the somewhat
better chances north and south of I-90 and the Capital District,
where terrain may the main factor in generating convection. The
main story Saturday will be very warm temperatures likely
exceeding daily records at climate sites Albany, Poughkeepsie, and
Glens Falls. See climate section below for details. Most valley
locations are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. It
will feel muggy as well, with dewpoints well into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Once again, any convection will dissipate shortly after dark
Saturday evening, as it will be diurnally driven under the
influence of the upper level ridge. It will be another mild night
with temps well above normal.

Similar conditions forecast for Sunday, as the upper level ridge
remains in place. However, there may be somewhat greater coverage
of convection due to the ridge axis eastward into New England by
late in the day. The low level focus for potentially more showers
and storms will be a side-door cold front moving southward along
the New England coast. This boundary is not expected to make
enough southward progress to infiltrate our area, but may provide
enough lift for scattered convection by the afternoon. Temps will
remain quite warm, but maybe a few degrees lower than Saturday due
to greater coverage of clouds/convection. Humid conditions will
persist with dewpoints remaining in the 60s.

Chances for showers and storms will actually continue Sunday
night into early Monday morning, as an open wave upper level
trough will approach from the Great Lakes region, providing some
larger scale ascent with the warm and humid air mass in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A we go into the day on Monday, consensus between the latest 12z
models does show moisture from the southwest Atlantic advecting
northward into the region thanks to a High pressure system
centered northeast of Bermuda. PWAT anomalies in some of the
probabilistic guidance range between 2 to near 3 S.D. Best chances
of precipitation will be during the day on Monday with highest QPF
amounts in our southeastern areas. We will continue to monitor the
latest trends with this tropical moisture and update the forecast
accordingly. With an established southwesterly flow with tropical
moisture moving poleward, high temperatures on Monday will be
slightly above average ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s with
Td ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s, so it will be quite
humid on Monday. We can also not rule out some thunderstorms to
start the extended period on Monday.

Some of the latest guidance has some showers lingering into
Tuesday morning as a cold front makes it way through the region.
Otherwise, tranquil weather is expected to remain throughout most
of the long term forecast period as a high pressure system remains
in control from tuesday into Thursday. High temperatures will
remain above average. As we go into the day on Friday, our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms return into the region with
temperatures near average for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure off the eastern seaboard will keep a warm, humid
southwest flow across the region through Saturday night.

Through Saturday daybreak, areas of MVFR/IFR in BR/FG may
develop, especially at KPOU and KPSF, where some showers occurred
or were nearby Friday afternoon/evening. The chances for BR/FG
will be least at KALB.

After Saturday daybreak, mainly VFR conditions are expected.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but
overall areal coverage is expected to be less than Friday, and
should remain confined to higher terrain mainly west and east of
the TAF sites. Have not included any mention of
showers/thunderstorms in TAFs at this time.

For Saturday night, areas of MVFR due to BR may develop toward
and especially after 06Z/Sunday, particularly at KGFL/KPSF.

Winds will be mainly light/variable through daybreak, then should
become southwest to west at 5-10 KT later Saturday morning through
Saturday afternoon. Winds should become light/variable once again
Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

Relative humidity values will increase to between 90 and 100
percent tonight, then drop to minimum values of around 40 to 50
percent Saturday afternoon. RH values will increase to between 85
and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds tonight will be southerly around 5 mph, becoming southwest
around 5 mph on Saturday. Winds Saturday night will be light and
variable.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next five days is expected to be
highly variable as much of it will come from isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. While widespread hydrologic issues are not
anticipated, localized downpours could lead to ponding of water or
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
especially Sunday and Monday.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week, as
high pressure builds in and takes residence across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With a hot and increasingly humid air mass in place, here is a
look at some record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 27th...94 degrees 1914
May 28th...91 degrees 1911
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 27th...86 degrees 2014 & 1978
May 28th...88 degrees 1988
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 27th...91 degrees 1965
May 28th...90 degrees 2012
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from January 1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272253
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
653 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid weather continues tonight with any lingering showers
diminishing but fog possible overnight. A backdoor cold front
will bring cooler temperatures to eastern MA Sunday but it will
remain very warm across the interior, where scattered showers and
thunderstorms likely develop during the afternoon. The potential
exists for a period of heavy rain very late Sunday night into
Memorial Day. Dry weather likely follows Tuesday through Thursday,
with above normal temperatures trending back to seasonable levels
by late in the week. A cold front approaches on Friday with a
chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

The remaining showers should diminish this evening. Concern now
turns to fog formation overnight. Current dew points 55 to 65
while water temps east and south are in the 50s. Satellite imagery
continues to show fog along the Maine coast and farther offshore.

With light winds and increasing moisture in the air, we are likely
to have another round of fog. This will favor coastal areas as
well as typical inland fog spots. The fog may be locally dense,
and may require a dense fog advisory once confidence is higher in
its location.

Otherwise, mins only fall into the low-mid 60s again tonight
thanks to high crossover temps and lingering clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...
Mid lvl ridging continues with rising heights across the region
and plenty of sunshine. No trouble mixing to at least H85 where
temps will approach +16C by afternoon peak heating. Weak return
flow will limit sea breezes to mainly the south coast.
Therefore, still expecting probably the hottest day we have seen
thus far with highs topping out in the low-mid 90s across much of
the region away from S coastal areas. Dwpts will remain elevated
as well, mainly in the low-mid 60s even during peak mixing.

The other issue will be convective potential. Plenty of SFC/mixed
lvl CAPE would be available, except the rising heights and modest
subsidence it/s associated with is likely to yield a slight
capping inversion and limit updraft development. Lapse rates are
modest, mainly approaching 6.0C/KM in the mid lvls, but this is
most likely a reflection of the mid lvl dry air. Even the latest
12Z ECMWF now is almost NIL for QPF during the afternoon and
evening hours. Definitely not going NIL given the rising PWATs and
potential energy available if the cap is broken, but will limit it
mainly to slight and low end chance across the terrain and along
developing sea breezes where at least some lift will be available.
T-storms will be mainly airmass-type as shear is also quite
limited.

Tomorrow night...
Continued increase in low-mid lvl moisture will actually help to
erode the cap and allow for some maintenance of any shra/t-storms
that develop, so will be slow to drop overnight POPs. Otherwise,
the increase in moisture beneath the inversion increases the risk
for overnight fog development which once again has the risk of
being locally dense at times and may require headlines. Otherwise,
another mild night with mins only falling back into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale shows East Coast upper ridge over the weekend. The
ridge axis shifts west and deamplifies Sunday and Monday. Pattern
shifts to ridge West and trough East during mid to late week.

Shortwave scale shows East Coast ridge Sunday shifting out to sea
and opening a moist flow up the coast from a disturbance off
Florida. All models hold some of this disturbance off the SE
USA coast early week while sending pieces of it up the coast and past
New England early week. Timing of these pieces remains in question
but model consensus would point to Monday-Monday night passage.
Northern jet stream shows one shortwave racing past New England
Monday night, and a second approaching next Friday.

Details...

Sunday...

Maritime high pressure builds and pushes a backdoor front into
Southern New England.  With the upper ridge shifting overhead the
surface front will at some point be parallel to the upper flow and
may stall over the region. Stability parameters such as the Total-
Totals and the Lifted Index become marginally unstable by the
afternoon across Western and Central MA. Any sunshine heating this
airmass together with the low level convergence along the front may
lead to thunderstorm development. Best chance would be in
Western/Central MA, but this could expand across Northern CT as
well depending on placement of the backdoor front.  Precipitable
water values near 1.5 inches, well above the May 29 average of 0.88,
suggest some potential for local heavy downpours.

The backdoor front shifts north Sunday night plunging our area more
fully into mild and humid air.

Temperatures at the top of the mixed layer are expected to be equiv
to 15-16C at 850 mb. Full mixing of this would support highs in the
80s. East/marine flow on the cool side of the backdoor front may
keep temps in Eastern MA in the 70s.  Increasing clouds and dew
points of 55 to 65 should keep Sunday night temps no lower than 55 to
65.

Monday...

Surface low pressure, part of the system off the SE USA coast, moves
up the coast and spreads a good supply of moisture into New England.
The coastal low will bring some dynamic support for lift. At the
same time, a shortwave moves east from the Great Lakes and drives a
cold front toward New England. This shortwave will move New England
under the lift-friendly right entrance region of its upper jet.  It
will also draw plenty of moisture north with precipitable water
values at 1.75 inches and potentially near 2 inches. As with the
Sunday values, this is well above normal for the Memorial Day
weekend. This will mean more showers, scattered thunder, and some
locally heavy downpours. Much of the concern for Monday will be
the developing potential for local flooding from any heavy
downpours.

Tuesday through Friday...

High pressure brings drier air in on Tuesday and lingers through the
week. Westerly winds Tuesday will allow temps to reach the low to
mid 80s. Later in the week, as the high shifts offshore and the
surface flow becomes south to southeast, max temperatures will be
held to the 70s with some 60s at the coast.

By Friday a cold front in the St Lawrence Valley will bring showers
in New York and Northern New England. The question will be if any of
those showers can reach Southern New England. For now we will go
with consensus values with slight chance pops during the day and
chance pops in some locations Friday night. This timing will likely
change.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...moderate confidence. Mainly VFR through about 06Z
inland, then patchy fog possible especially at typically prone
airports with localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Another risk for LIFR
along Cape Cod and Island terminals overnight into Saturday morning.

Saturday and Saturday night...moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR. Local MVFR-IFR conditions in patchy fog through mid
morning. Low probability of brief MVFR conditions in SCT afternoon
SHRA/TSRA across the interior. Another risk for overnight fog
tomorrow night.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday...Moderate Confidence.

VFR. Areas of MVFR in afternoon showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Sunday night-Monday...Moderate confidence.

Conditions lowering to MVFR and IFR in fog overnight. MVFR-IFR
conditions in showers late Sunday night through Monday. Locally
heavy downpours. Winds become east Sunday night and South on Monday.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence.

VFR conditions except local IFR in fog each late night and
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight...
Winds and seas remain uneventful tonight. There will be some fog
to contend with. The fog could be quite dense at times and may
take some time to burn off even after sunrise.

Saturday and Saturday night...
Seas on the southern outer waters may briefly reach 5 feet at
times but should diminish again at night. South to southwest winds
will remain less than 20 knots. More fog may develop Saturday
night.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday...High confidence.

Winds and seas remain less than Small Craft Advisory thresholds.
Locally poor vsbys in fog Sunday morning.

Sunday night-Monday...Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas increase but still remain below SCA thresholds. Areas
of poor vsbys in rain and fog.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Seas build to 5-6 feet on the exposed Southern Waters Monday night
and Tuesday. South winds near 20 knots early Monday night shift out
of the West and diminish overnight. Winds remain below SCA
thresholds through Wednesday.  A Small Craft Advisory may be needed
for hazardous seas Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Still expect highest temperatures of the week on Saturday. Some
record highs may be challenged. However, might even see temps
getting close to records today as well.

Record highs for Saturday May 28...

Boston...92 set in 1931
Providence...91 set in 1931
Hartford...93 set in 1977
Worcester...88 set in 1911 and 1929
Milton/Blue Hill...90 set in 1929

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ003-
     004.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
     MAZ004>007-009>018-026.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ002>006-
     008>013-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>005.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody
NEAR TERM...WTB/Doody
SHORT TERM...Doody
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Doody
MARINE...WTB/Doody
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271928
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
328 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and hazy conditions continue with a low risk for showers or
thunderstorms late today and again late tomorrow. A backdoor cold
front will bring cooler temperatures to eastern MA Sunday but it
will remain very warm across the interior, where hit and miss
showers and thunderstorms likely develop during the afternoon. The
potential exists for a period of heavy rain very late Sunday night
into Memorial Day. Dry weather likely follows Tuesday through
Thursday, with above normal temperatures trending back to
seasonable levels by late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A very warm and hazy day continues thanks to modest but apparent
mid lvl ridging across srn New England. Upstream, noting a CU
field and some shra/t-storms developing where airmass is more
unstable /cooler aloft and more moist in the low lvls/. This is
not expected to push much further E than the Berkshires through
the evening, as the more stable/capped airmass remains in place
across our region. Still have a few slight chance pops for this
risk.

Overnight, expect another mild and partly cloudy night with the
remnant clouds from upstream convection moving over during the
early morning hours. Noting current dewpoints vs SSTs still in the
50s, and an area of stratus/fog in the Gulf of Maine per latest
VIS imagery, will likely see another round of fog especially
along coastal areas /SE MA again/ and more areas inland overnight.
This could once again be locally dense, and may require a dense
fog advisory once confidence is higher in its location.

Otherwise, mins only fall into the low-mid 60s again tonight
thanks to high crossover temps and lingering clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...
Mid lvl ridging continues with rising heights across the region
and plenty of sunshine. No trouble mixing to at least H85 where
temps will approach +16C by afternoon peak heating. Weak return
flow will limit sea breezes to mainly the south coast.
Therefore, still expecting probably the hottest day we have seen
thus far with highs topping out in the low-mid 90s across much of
the region away from S coastal areas. Dwpts will remain elevated
as well, mainly in the low-mid 60s even during peak mixing.

The other issue will be convective potential. Plenty of SFC/mixed
lvl CAPE would be available, except the rising heights and modest
subsidence it/s associated with is likely to yield a slight
capping inversion and limit updraft development. Lapse rates are
modest, mainly approaching 6.0C/KM in the mid lvls, but this is
most likely a reflection of the mid lvl dry air. Even the latest
12Z ECMWF now is almost NIL for QPF during the afternoon and
evening hours. Definitely not going NIL given the rising PWATs and
potential energy available if the cap is broken, but will limit it
mainly to slight and low end chance across the terrain and along
developing sea breezes where at least some lift will be available.
T-storms will be mainly airmass-type as shear is also quite
limited.

Tomorrow night...
Continued increase in low-mid lvl moisture will actually help to
erode the cap and allow for some maintenance of any shra/t-storms
that develop, so will be slow to drop overnight POPs. Otherwise,
the increase in moisture beneath the inversion increases the risk
for overnight fog development which once again has the risk of
being locally dense at times and may require headlines. Otherwise,
another mild night with mins only falling back into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...

* Turning cooler Eastern MA coast Sunday but still very warm
  inland

* Hit and miss showers/t-storms likely across interior southern
  New England Sunday afternoon/early evening

* Period of heavy rain possible very late Sunday night into
  Memorial Day with even a small risk of localized flooding

* Dry weather Tue into Thu with above normal temps trending back
  to seasonable levels late in the week

Details...

Saturday night...Isolated to widely scattered showers/t-storms may
linger into the evening but should be on the downward trend with the
loss of daytime heating.  Otherwise, expect mainly dry weather
Saturday night but it will be quite mild and muggy for late May. Low
temps may only drop into the middle to upper 60s for many locations
away from the cooling marine influence of the south coast.  Patchy
fog likely develops in the typically prone locations with dewpoints
in the 60s.

Sunday...Still timing differences with the backdoor cold front but
appears that it will still be east of the CT River Valley by mid
afternoon.  So its conceivable that Sunday afternoon temps will have
fallen into the 60s along the Eastern MA coast, while the Lower CT
River Valley might be in the lower 90s.  The morning should mainly
be dry, but expect 1000 to 2000 J/KG of Cape to develop across
interior southern New England.  Despite upper level ridging, decent
low level convergence/instability will allow low level moisture to
pool a bit. The result should be hit and miss showers/thunderstorms
developing across interior southern New England Sun afternoon. The
extent of this activity will be determined by how fast the front
moves and amount of instability that is able to develop.  Highest
risk for scattered activity is across western MA/northern CT but it
could extend back into portions of central MA/RI if front moves
slower.  0 to 6 km shear is weak, so overall severe weather threat
is low.  However, given decent instability can not rule out a strong
thunderstorm or two. Any storms that develop will be slow moving and
capable of producing very localized heavy rain.

So to sum up Sunday, dry weather expected for much of the day but
scattered showers/t-storms likely develop in the afternoon across
the interior.  While activity should be hit and miss, very localized
heavy rainfall and lightning will be the biggest concern with any
storm.

Sunday night and Memorial Day...

Hit and miss convection across the interior should diminish Sunday
evening with the loss of daytime heating.  Mainly dry weather
expected for the first part of the night.

Things then become very interesting very late Sunday night into
Memorial day. The National Hurricane Center is expecting low
pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda to develop into a
tropical or sub tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. While a
direct impact will not occur, an approaching cold front will
likely pull a plume of its tropical moisture northward. PWATS may
rise to around 2 inches in southern New England. Still plenty of
uncertainty on how this unfolds, but a period of heavy rain
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are possible across the
region. Fortunately, this appears to be a progressive event but
given tropical connection there is a small risk of some localized
flooding. Something will have to watch closely, especially given
it will be on the end of a Holiday Weekend and a big travel day.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Looks like dry and warm weather follows behind the cold front on
Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s.  It is a long way off, but
current guidance favors dry weather Wed into Thu as high pressure
builds down from the Canadian Maritimes.  This would also generate
an easterly low level component to the wind with temperatures likely
returning to seasonable normals by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00z...high confidence.
VFR conditions continue with a low risk for afternoon
shra/t-storms mainly across the CT valley and points W.

Tonight...moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR through about 06Z inland, then patchy fog possible
especially at typically prone airports with localized MVFR/IFR
conditions. Another risk for LIFR along Cape Cod and Island
terminals overnight into tomorrow morning.

Saturday and Saturday night...moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR. Local MVFR-IFR conditions in patchy fog through mid
morning. Low probability of brief MVFR conditions in SCT afternoon
SHRA/TSRA across the interior. Another risk for overnight fog
tomorrow night.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions may lower to MVFR
thresholds across Eastern New England behind backdoor cold front.
Otherwise, mainly VFR across the interior but briefly lower
conditions possible in hit and miss showers/t-storms during the
afternoon.

Sunday night and Memorial Day...Moderate confidence.  MVFR-IFR
conditions may develop late Sunday night into Memorial Day in a
period of rain showers which may be locally heavy.

Monday night and Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence in mainly
VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.

Will be dropping the small craft advisory as it appears seas will
generally not build as high as previously forecast. Winds still
remain mostly S-SW with gusts only to around 20 kt near shore
during the daylight hours. Therefore, mainly quiet boating weather
is expected regarding mainly seas and winds.

There will be some fog to contend with especially overnight and
morning hours. This could be quite dense at times and may take
some time to burn off even after sunrise.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
through the period with a relatively weak pressure gradient.
Biggest concern for Mariners will be late Sunday night into
Memorial Day, when a period of heavy rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Still expect highest temperatures of the week on Saturday. Some
record highs may be challenged. However, might even see temps
getting close to records today as well.

Record highs for Saturday May 28...

Boston...92 set in 1931
Providence...91 set in 1931
Hartford...93 set in 1977
Worcester...88 set in 1911 and 1929
Milton/Blue Hill...90 set in 1929

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ002>006-
     008>013-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>005.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody
NEAR TERM...Doody
SHORT TERM...Doody
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Doody
MARINE...WTB/Doody
CLIMATE...staff




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