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000
FXUS61 KBOX 171107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE....
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING
PARTS OF EAST COASTAL MA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE
WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING. WE WERE OFF TO A VERY CHILLY START
WITH 7 AM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 30S ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS WERE ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON
NANTUCKET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES RESULTING IN A MORE
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MA COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY MOVE ONSHORE
AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE COLUMN. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS...STRONGEST ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS A RISK OF
CIGS IN THE 3000-3500 FT RANGE ACROSS EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...DUNTEN/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



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000
FXUS61 KALY 170952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT  INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR A
WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR BUT COLD MORNING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS TO THE NORTH MAINLY ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOWS WILL BOTTOM JUST ABOVE RECORD LEVELS IN MOST CASES.

JUST VERY MINOR TWEAKING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE AS SUNSHINE GETS TO WORK ON THE CHILL...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO NO BIG WARMUP JUST A GRADUAL MODERATION.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION.  THESE VALUES WILL STILL FALL A
LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRIL.

A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS
WITH MAINLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. AT THIS
POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 170847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT  INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR A
WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...A FRIGID NIGHT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. IT IS CALM
AND MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS NORTH. LOCALLY AT ALBANY
WE WERE SITTING AT 28...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE YET TO ECLIPSE THE
OLD LOW RECORD OF 21 SET BACK IN 1971.

SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE AS SUNSHINE GETS TO WORK ON THE CHILL...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO NO BIG WARMUP JUST A GRADUAL MODERATION.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION.  THESE VALUES WILL STILL FALL A
LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRIL.

A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS
WITH MAINLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. AT THIS
POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 170844
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CRESTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE
WATERS KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM RADIATING OUT THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL SITES ARE
CLOSE TO HITTING THEIR RECORD LOW AS OF 400 AM. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO BREAK THEIR
RECORD.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES RESULTING IN A MORE
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MA COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY MOVE
ONSHORE AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE COLUMN.
OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...DUNTEN/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170803
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

430 AM UPDATE....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CRESTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE
WAVERS KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM RADIATING OUT THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL SITES ARE
CLOSE TO HITTING THEIR RECORD LOW AS OF 400AM. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO BREAK THEIR
RECORD.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TODAY RESULTING IN
A MORE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MASS COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY
MOVE ONSHORE AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE
COLUMN. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE SEAS
WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED SCA
ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO
OFFSHORE LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170557
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR....YIELDING TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. CLOSER
TO THE COASTLINE...COLD AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP THE
WINDS UP AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
STAY ABOVE 32F. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE CAPE. HAVE
UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH  OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL
TAKE LONG TO SUBSIDE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY INTO THU EVENING OUTSIDE OF
HARBORS...BAYS AND SOME SOUNDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS INTO THU. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
IN RESPONSE TO ESPECIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF MID ATLC COAST.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO OFFSHORE
LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KALY 170517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE
PICTURES DO INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...AGAIN ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE
GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS
21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM












000
FXUS61 KALY 170516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE
PICTURES DO INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...AGAIN ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE
GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.
WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21
DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KALY 170515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. LARGE
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SKY WILL BE
INITIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT OR CALM...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS
STREAMING IN LATER TONIGHT. ERGO...WE WILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE
ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21 DEGREE
SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 170157
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

UPDATED AT 1000 PM...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE DROPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE REMAIN UP KEEPING THE
USUAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES FROM DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS
THOUGHT. REGARDLESS CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH BUT
PROBABLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM N AND THEN NE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL SEE
WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH  OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL
TAKE LONG TO SUBSIDE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY INTO THU EVENING OUTSIDE OF
HARBORS...BAYS AND SOME SOUNDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS INTO THU. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
IN RESPONSE TO ESPECIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF MID ATLC COAST.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO OFFSHORE
LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KALY 170145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. LARGE
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SKY WILL BE
INITIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT OR CALM...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS
STREAMING IN LATER TONIGHT. ERGO...WE WILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE
ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21 DEGREE
SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 162340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
740 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

UPDATED AT 715 PM...
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST. WINDS DIMINISHING BUT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT SO THAT ONLY IN MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WILL THE WIND TOTALLY DECOUPLE FROM TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER.
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS IN A FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH BUT
PROBABLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM N AND THEN NE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL SEE
WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS DIMINISHING SOME OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL TAKE
LONG TO SUBSIDE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY INTO THU EVENING OUTSIDE OF
HARBORS...BAYS AND SOME SOUNDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS INTO THU. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
IN RESPONSE TO ESPECIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF MID ATLC COAST.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO OFFSHORE
LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...DELLICARPINI/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 162335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT..A STRONG NEAR 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH
IS 21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE
INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE
SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF
SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 162019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
SNOWFALL HAS MELTED IN MOST EXPOSED AREAS THIS MORNING UNDER THE
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER
BEING RIGHT OVER OUR CWA. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD
LOW WHICH IS 21 THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE
INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE
SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF
SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK AFTER SOME RIVERS REACHING CREST SOMETIME
TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 161957
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER-CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH BACKING OUT OF THE N AND GRADUALLY TO THE
NE. WILL SEE WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS. OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALES HAVE CEASED RESULTING IN ALL WATERS BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND BOSTON HARBOR IN A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS. WILL SEE NW WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING WHILE BACKING OUT
OF THE N. WHILE INNER-WATER SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONCLUDE...OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS AS EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...DELLICARPINI/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 161754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 161753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER-CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH BACKING OUT OF THE N AND GRADUALLY TO THE
NE. WILL SEE WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS. OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALES HAVE CEASED RESULTING IN ALL WATERS BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND BOSTON HARBOR IN A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS. WILL SEE NW WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING WHILE BACKING OUT
OF THE N. WHILE INNER-WATER SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONCLUDE...OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS AS EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF




000
FXUS61 KALY 161651
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 161459
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1059 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. CLEARING TO THE REAR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO H85. SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED DRYING. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C...HIGHS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER- 40S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND
-1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AT
OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE 50S AS WELL.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES WELL S OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS INTO MIDDAY DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...GUSTING OVER 25 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR GALE-
FORCE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ON THE OUTER WATERS.

GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACCORDINGLY. SMALL-CRAFTS WILL DROP OFF DURING MIDDAY HOURS FOR
THE INNER WATERS...BUT AS TO THE OUTER WATERS PRESENT 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS AN AVERAGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL/GAF
HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF




000
FXUS61 KALY 161424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. PLUS WE HAD 1/2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 161353
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
953 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. CLEARING TO THE REAR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO H85. SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED DRYING. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C...HIGHS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER- 40S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND
-1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AT
OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE 50S AS WELL.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES WELL S OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS INTO MIDDAY DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF




000
FXUS61 KALY 161213
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
813 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 161150
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
750 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRY
THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

ALL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW EXITED THE COAST. BRIGHT SUNSHINE WAS
PREVAILING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT IT SHOULD BREAK OUT THERE BY MID MORNING. THERE WERE
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MIX
DOWN...WITH 40 MPH AT MANCHESTER NH. WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 40
KNOTS SO EXPECT THAT 40 MPH IS THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE AT THE
SURFACE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ICY ROADS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SPINOUTS...PLEASE DRIVE WITH
CAUTION AS THE RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET FROM LAST NIGHT HAS FROZEN
OVER IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HIT 32 OR COLDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C. THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL
SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST
LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCAL IFR ON CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET UNTIL 13-14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE.
NW WINDS GUST 25-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/FIELD
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD
MARINE...DOODY/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 161036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 160853
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
453 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRY
THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL CC/ZDR PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY SLEET/SNOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENT SETUP HAS IT MAINLY IN ERN CT AND THEN THROUGH
MA/RI E OF WORCESTER COUNTY MA. HOWEVER...THE BACK END OF THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST LVLS IS ALSO RAPIDLY PROGRESSING E SUCH THAT
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY ABOUT 9-10Z OR
SO. SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS DRY AIR AND THE MIXING
LINE ACROSS ERN MA/CT AND RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSION IT IS
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

ASIDE FROM THIS...THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HOURS OF
MIXED PRECIP ARE REPORTING SOME SNOWFALL VALUES OF 1.0 TO 2.0+
INCHES OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO DECLINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE
ISSUING AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

WITH THE PRECIP NEARLY FINISHED BY AROUND 10-12Z
EVERYWHERE...EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AS WELL SUCH THAT
SEVERAL AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO SEE
THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING SKIES
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS...EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C.
THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
...HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THE TAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD
MARINE...DOODY/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 160850
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND
GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THIS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE LOWERS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME
MORE ANTICYLONIC.

TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
REGION...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS
IN OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF
AREAS...UPPER 20S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LOWER 30S MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN.

INITIALLY MOST ASPHALT SURFACES REMAINED WET. HOWEVER...IN THE CASE
OF HEAVIER SNOW...THEY TOO BECAME SLUSH COVERED. ANY STANDING SLUSH
AND WET SPOTS WILL FREEZE SOLID. WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING
DRIVE (800 AM).

WE WILL LIKELY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES...TEENS
HIGHER TERRAIN.


WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING
AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER
CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGH
WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE
CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS RECORD
BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 160804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY...BUT
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL CC/ZDR PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY SLEET/SNOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENT SETUP HAS IT MAINLY IN ERN CT AND THEN THROUGH
MA/RI E OF WORCESTER COUNTY MA. HOWEVER...THE BACK END OF THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST LVLS IS ALSO RAPIDLY PROGRESSING E SUCH THAT
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY ABOUT 9-10Z OR
SO. SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS DRY AIR AND THE MIXING
LINE ACROSS ERN MA/CT AND RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSION IT IS
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

ASIDE FROM THIS...THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HOURS OF
MIXED PRECIP ARE REPORTING SOME SNOWFALL VALUES OF 1.0 TO 2.0+
INCHES OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO DECLINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE
ISSUING AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

WITH THE PRECIP NEARLY FINISHED BY AROUND 10-12Z
EVERYWHERE...EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AS WELL SUCH THAT
SEVERAL AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO SEE
THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING SKIES
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS...EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C.
THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THE TAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 160728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END BEFORE DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN TODAY
WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE SNOW SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT OF THERE AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN AREAS. THERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EVEN GREATER
CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE ICY FOR THE
MORNING DRIVE. EARLIER...WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN...AND WE MAY ISSUE ANOTHER RIGHT BEFORE THE
MORNING DRIVE COMMENCES.

LOWS BY DAWN WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND 15 TO
25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND










000
FXUS61 KALY 160554
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND








000
FXUS61 KBOX 160539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
DUAL POL RADAR ZDR/CC SHOWS A VERY DISTINCT TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING E ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CT
TO ABOUT MHT. SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING INTO LONG ISLAND AT THIS
TIME AS WELL...SO EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A SHORT PERIOD OF BOTH
SNOW AND SLEET EVERYWHERE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ALREADY SEE DRY AIR MOVING IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE W CUTTING OFF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE. HAVE NOTICED
CIGS RISING AS THIS DRY AIR MOVES IN. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT
THROUGH THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PRECIP WILL BE RAPIDLY ENDING
FROM W TO E.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THETAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 160534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 160346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1145 PM EDT...SNOW WAS ENDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...WITH PRESUMABLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HILLTOWNS AND ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO.

SO ANYWHERE FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

OUR BIG CONCERN IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATED THE TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
SOME ACCUMULATIONS. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE WERE COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KBOX 160206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOCAL OBS AND WSR-88D VELOCITY PRODUCTS
SUGGEST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NEAR WESTERLY RI TO
NEWBURYPORT MA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
AS SECONDARY MID LVL WAVE MOVES NE FROM ARUO0ND THE
DELMARVA...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS ANOTHER AREA OF MOD RAIN. THIS
BAND OF RAIN IS MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE BROAD AREA OF
QG FORCING WITH MID LVL WAVE...AND IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY LOSE A
BIT OF ITS OVERALL PRECIP-PRODUCING ABILITY AS THE THE COLD FRONT
OUTPACES IT...DRAWING IN DRIER/COLDER AIR. SO...IN ESSENCE...WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE BOTH
IN INTENSITY AND SPATIALLY.

IN REGARD TO P-TYPE...COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE APPARENT ACROSS
WRN MA/CT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MUCH COLDER AIR IS
MOVING IN RAPIDLY AND SEVERAL AREAS ARE REPORTING SNOW/SLEET IN
BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...IT HAS TAKEN MUCH MORE TIME
DRAINING INTO THE CT VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT IT TO TAKE A BIT
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO ACTUALLY SPILL OVER INTO THE REST OF
CT/MA/NH...UNTIL THE COLD LAYER BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH. SO...STILL
EXPECT A CHANGE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END...BUT
THIS MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY ACCUM OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
A WHILE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AN SPS DUE TO FLASH FREEZING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY IF SOME SLEET/SNOW ACCUMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. COLD FRONT INTO CT RVR VLY AT
7 PM AND CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 160146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW. HAVE INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 160000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND WHATEVER MIX IS
OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 9 PM. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS BUT LENGTH OF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALL PARK FOR ALL AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 152324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND WHATEVER MIX IS
OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 9 PM. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS BUT LENGTH OF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALL PARK FOR ALL AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 152309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE CT RVR VLY WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS. QUITE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
TEMP OF 61 AT ORE AND 37 AT PSF! WARM SECTOR REMAINS ACROSS
EASTERN MA/RI AND INTO EASTERN CT WITH TEMPS IN THE L60S AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS UP TO 1.4 INCHES
CENTERED OVER RI AND EASTERN MA...SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. RAIN
SHIELD HAS BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED WITH TIME HOWEVER HEAVIER
ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN LARGER RAIN SHIELD. HEAVIER RAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA UNTIL ABOUT 03Z...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE BY THEN. HOWEVER STRONG Q/G FORCING
FROM UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLC REGION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 06Z. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP...HOWEVER THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL JET EXITS AS WELL.

COLD AIR ARRIVES IN WESTERN CT/MA 03Z-06Z AND THEN 06Z-09Z EASTERN
MA AND RI. HOWEVER COLUMN DRIES OUT QUICKLY SO ANY SNOW/SLEET
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. NEVERTHELESS COULD HAVE SOME SLICK SPOTS
INLAND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS
WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LASTEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. COLD FRONT INTO CT RVR VLY AT
7 PM AND CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTSEY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KALY 152217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING NOW SO QUICK UPDATE FOR THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 152043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION IS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A BREAK BETWEEN THE RAIN AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL NY...SO THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED BEFORE THE BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS EAST.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KBOX 152032
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

430 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LASTEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTSEY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 152024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION IS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A BREAK BETWEEN THE RAIN AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL NY...SO THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED BEFORE THE BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS EAST.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 151950
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING
DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING
AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT...THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
200 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFT AND DYNAMICS COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEGINNING TO SEE AN AREAL
INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. H925 WINDS FROM VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS VIA
WSR-88D SHOWING ENHANCING S-WINDS OF 60-70 KTS. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASE IN IMPACTS DUE TO THE ATTRIBUTABLE THREATS OUTLINED
BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM. AN AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF RI AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA.

EARLIER...THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH NOTED ANOMALOUS DEEP
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WPC PUT OUT A SLIGHT RISK TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A SURGE OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

COUPLING WITH AN AMPLIFYING LLJ ALREADY OBSERVED BY THE EARLIER
MENTIONED VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
LIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET...AND CONSIDERING THE APPROACH OF A SHARP COLD FRONT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT...AND YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AND THERE IS SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATIONS AS OUTLINED
ABOVE. AVERAGE STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 2
INCHES AND EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES IN A
TIMEFRAME OF AROUND 6-HOURS.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH IS DUE TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS
FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER AND LIKELY GOING
INTO MINOR FLOOD...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD. RIVER BASINS OF
CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK. ALSO ANTICIPATE
IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT
WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES THE
HEIGHT OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE FOR MOST
ROADWAYS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONCERNED FOR THE I-91
CORRIDOR SURROUNDING SPRINGFIELD MA AND HARTFORD CT...AS WELL AS
THE I-95/I-195 CORRIDORS AROUND BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE...EVEN OUT
I-90 INCORPORATING WORCESTER. PONDING OF WATER ALONG AREA ROADWAYS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIG ISSUE TO AREA TRAFFIC.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY. ANY HIGH-WINDS TO
WHICH WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED
WARNINGS.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS AND TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS.

THUS THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N MA AND S NH ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. SHOULD ALSO SEE THIS DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WET SURFACES FROM
THE RAIN WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER WHICH WAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS THAT MAY
EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUS 850
MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THIS TO SOME
DEGREE. ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER
WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING IFR-VLIFR WITH
+RA TOWARDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. STRONG
S-WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR S/E TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...WILL SEE LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ARE AMPLIFYING TO 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTSEY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS...BUT AT
THIS PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 151803
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
203 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

200 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFT AND DYNAMICS COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEGINNING TO SEE AN AREAL
INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. H925 WINDS FROM VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS VIA
WSR-88D SHOWING ENHANCING S-WINDS OF 60-70 KTS. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASE IN IMPACTS DUE TO THE ATTRIBUTABLE THREATS OUTLINED
BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM. AN AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF RI AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA.

EARLIER...THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH NOTED ANOMALOUS DEEP
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WPC PUT OUT A SLIGHT RISK TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A SURGE OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

COUPLING WITH AN AMPLIFYING LLJ ALREADY OBSERVED BY THE EARLIER
MENTIONED VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
LIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET...AND CONSIDERING THE APPROACH OF A SHARP COLD FRONT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT...AND YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AND THERE IS SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATIONS AS OUTLINED
ABOVE. AVERAGE STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 2
INCHES AND EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES IN A
TIMEFRAME OF AROUND 6-HOURS.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH IS DUE TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS
FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER AND LIKELY GOING
INTO MINOR FLOOD...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD. RIVER BASINS OF
CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK. ALSO ANTICIPATE
IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT
WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES THE
HEIGHT OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE FOR MOST
ROADWAYS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONCERNED FOR THE I-91
CORRIDOR SURROUNDING SPRINGFIELD MA AND HARTFORD CT...AS WELL AS
THE I-95/I-195 CORRIDORS AROUND BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE...EVEN OUT
I-90 INCORPORATING WORCESTER. PONDING OF WATER ALONG AREA ROADWAYS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIG ISSUE TO AREA TRAFFIC.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY. ANY HIGH-WINDS TO
WHICH WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED
WARNINGS.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS AND TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS.

THUS THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N MA AND S NH ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. SHOULD ALSO SEE THIS DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WET SURFACES FROM
THE RAIN WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER WHICH WAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS THAT MAY
EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUS 850
MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THIS TO SOME
DEGREE. ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER
WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING IFR-VLIFR WITH
+RA TOWARDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. STRONG
S-WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR S/E TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...WILL SEE LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ARE AMPLIFYING TO 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS...BUT AT
THIS PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-
     250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 151745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 151719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED IFR TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL 20Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
LOWERING CEILINGS FURTHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 151656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE
REGION.

THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SHOWERS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT IN TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...USHERING IN DRAMATICALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z...WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03Z AND QUICKLY END BY 09Z WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 151518
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1118 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

11 AM UPDATE...

SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS MID-STATE NY/PA WHICH CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN WSR-88D RADAR REFLECTIVITIES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT EXITING OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN A HEAVY SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PUSHING UP
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WILL ALSO SEE
AN AMPLIFICATION OF WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SPECIFIC DETAILS AND
THREATS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH /NESDIS/ CLEARLY OUTLINES THE
SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS EVENT...ANOMALOUS DEEP MOISTURE SURGING UP
THE EAST-COAST WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALY 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SOUNDING RELEASED NEAR WASHINGTON DC
DULLES AIRPORT OBSERVED A 1.64-INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNT...
THE FOURTH HIGHEST EVER OBSERVED IN APRIL FOR THE AREA.

AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...
EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO AMPLIFY RESULTING IN A LLJ BY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BETWEEN 80-90 MPH...THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...THUS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COMBINING WITH FRONTO-
GENETICAL LIFT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDS THE LIKE-
LIHOOD THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FINE-LINE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH HEIGHTENED WORDING AS A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. AREA
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES.
MUCH OF THIS RAIN MAY FALL IN A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME OF ROUGHLY
6-HOURS AS NOTED BY THE SLIGHT RISK ISSUED BY WPC FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

BESIDE RIVER POINTS ALREADY WITH FLOOD WARNINGS...MINOR RIVER FLOODING
IS EXPECTED FOR THE CONNECTICUT...PAWCATUCK...AND MERRIMACK RIVER
BASINS /SOME OF WHICH ARE SWOLLEN DUE TO UPSTREAM SNOWMELT/. SOME
RIVER POINTS MAY REACH MODERATE FLOODING. EXPECTING AREA IMPACTS
TO SMALL RIVERS...TRIBUTARIES...OR STREAMS /ESPECIALLY THOSE WHICH
ARE NARROW AND FLASHIER/. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES
OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

ALSO ANTICIPATE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
THE DENSE URBAN CORRIDORS /SUCH AS I-95 AND I-195/...WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF PONDING OF WATER ALONG AREA ROADWAYS WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FALLING POTENTIALLY IN A SHORT-WINDOW OF TIME.

REMOVED THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FROM THE DISCUSSION...TYING IN THE
POINTS ABOVE TO AVOID REDUNDANCY.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LLJ AND CONSIDERING PRECIP-DRAG AND
POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MECHANICAL MIXING PROCESSES /DESPITE THE
STOUT INVERSION PER 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING/ THERE IS THE THREAT OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH /ESPECIALLY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPANSION INTO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
IS STILL BEING CONSIDERED PER MONITORING UPSTREAM TRENDS ALONG THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE THREAT OF HIGH-WINDS...BUT
WILL HANDLE THIS THREAT WITH SHORT-FUSED WARNINGS.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

THE BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...COLD AIR WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE SFC TO MID LVLS DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/SNOW FROM W TO E WITH EVEN THE LOW END POTENTIAL OF SOME
ACCUMULATION IN THE W AND N OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON
WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
LEADING INTO THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. THE KEY WILL BE THE RACE
BETWEEN THE COLD AND THE DRIER AIR EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS/ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS THE LOW END CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING
TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EXTREME W AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS
GUIDANCE HAS ONLY INCREASED BOTH THE DEPTH AND SPEED WITH WHICH
THE COLD AIR COMES IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY ENDS.

TEMPERATURES...

DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 70F
TODAY ACROSS THE E WHERE A BREAK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL START IN THE LOW 60S. FURTHER W WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AND TEMPS ARE A BIT LOWER THIS
MORNING...ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING WED...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOMALOUS
850 MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE
EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET
THIS TO SOME DEGREE.  ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING IFR-VLIFR WITH
+RA TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. STRONG
S-WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR S/E TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...WILL SEE LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THIS EVENING WITH 60-70 KT JET 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS...BUT AT
THIS PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 151432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH TODAY. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE SUN WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A SWATHE OF MDT-HVY RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
W-CNTRL NY INTO ERN NY. THIS AREA OF RAINFALL IS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH FROM A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PER
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN H250 JET STREAK OF 150+KTS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSIST IN ENHANCING THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE RAINFALL HAS REACHED THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...AND POPS AND TEMP PROFILES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN NY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH KSYR WHERE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U30S. IT HAS ALSO
REACHED THE WRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...EXCEPT FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRACT SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE A
SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN WITH 250 J/KG OR LESS OF INSTABILITY. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS IMPRESSIVE AT H850 REACHING 50-65+ KTS. SOME
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH MAY REACH THE SFC...BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR
STRONGER GUSTS WITH THE RAIN SHIELD FILLING IN. SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THUNDERLESS
OR NEAR THUNDERLESS LINES IF THE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 58 MPH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WELL BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...GENERALLY 55 TO 60. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...60S
WILL BE COMMON...MID 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY  WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY...BY
NOON ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY...AND EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PLETHORA OF HYDRO
ISSUES. MORE ABOUT THESE CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW.
SLEET HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST. FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S (40S SOUTHEAST) BY DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE
REGION.

THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SHOWERS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT IN TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...USHERING IN DRAMATICALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z...WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03Z AND QUICKLY END BY 09Z WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








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