000
FXUS61 KALY 211129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL START THE DRY RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM
AND MUGGY. SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE STRONG MAY SUN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY
ABOUT 8 AM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

700 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. MADE UPDATES TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOCALLY PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
WEBCAMS. WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADV TIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF PRECIP AS SHOWERS OVER NH WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...AND EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST MESONET WIND DATA INDICATED THIS
FRONT HAD MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE. FARTHER SOUTH...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON...THIS FRONT HAS APPARENTLY NOT MADE
MUCH PROGRESS.

THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN
OUR WEATHER TODAY. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT
EAST OF THIS FRONT...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WELL
TO THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE AS WELL.
MARINE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING.

THESE TEMPERATURES IN TURN WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY IS GENERATED TODAY. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD
1000-200 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. MIXED-LAYER CAPE WAS NON-
EXISTENT. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING SHOULD MEAN
THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS NY STATE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THAT SAID...STILL MAINTAINED AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA AND SOUTHERN NH
THIS MORNING.

AS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE TO
RESULT IN MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 750-1250 J/KG. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE. GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING FARTHER EAST
OVER THE SURFACE MARINE LAYER. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...THINKING
CONVECTION WOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FARTHER NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. STILL NOT CONVINCED SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOCAL SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING A BRIEF DIMINISHMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SUGGESTED BY CLIMATOLOGY.
INSTABILITY REGENERATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON MODEL PERFORMANCE. THE
00Z GFS/NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THE DIGGING TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWED SUIT BUT NOT AS
DRASTICALLY. LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS EC/UKMET WHICH WHERE IN
BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PREV FORECAST. OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURS AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEK
WITH MOD CONFIDENCE FOR SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY FORECAST FOR
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP AND
THUNDER TO THE REGION. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT LOCATION AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS.
REGARDLESS...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. BELIEVE DIURNAL PRECIP
WILL BE THE MAIN TREAT FOR THIS DAY...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE TO MORE OF A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE DUE TO THE SLOW DOWN
OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. ONLY THING TRULY LACKING IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE AROUND FROM THE PREV NIGHTS
SHOWERS/THUNDER. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEN BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 1.5
IN.

THIS WEEKEND...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEK...CAA WILL
BRING A THERMAL TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVG. AM NOT ANTICIPATED ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR IN THE FUTURE AS THE ENTIRE
AREA IS NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG BOTH THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PATCHY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TUESDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR/MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING OF VFR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING OF VFR
IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST OF TODAY. LEANED MORE HEAVILY UPON THE SWAN WAVE
GUIDANCE AS THE WNA WAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. STILL
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EXPANDING
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RIGHT NOW TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH EXISTING ADVISORY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE SEAS ABOVE 5FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE BETTER DAY FOR TSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS AS
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KALY 211030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL START THE DRY RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM
AND MUGGY. SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE STRONG MAY SUN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY
ABOUT 8 AM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF AND
ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT KPSF. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING
EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR KSYR.  THERE
IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING AT AROUND 35
KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210834
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST MESONET WIND DATA INDICATED THIS
FRONT HAD MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE. FARTHER SOUTH...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON...THIS FRONT HAS APPARENTLY NOT MADE
MUCH PROGRESS.

THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN
OUR WEATHER TODAY. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT
EAST OF THIS FRONT...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WELL
TO THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE AS WELL.
MARINE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING.

THESE TEMPERATURES IN TURN WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY IS GENERATED TODAY. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD
1000-200 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. MIXED-LAYER CAPE WAS NON-
EXISTENT. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING SHOULD MEAN
THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS NY STATE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THAT SAID...STILL MAINTAINED AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA AND SOUTHERN NH
THIS MORNING.

AS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE TO
RESULT IN MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 750-1250 J/KG. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE. GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING FARTHER EAST
OVER THE SURFACE MARINE LAYER. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...THINKING
CONVECTION WOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FARTHER NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. STILL NOT CONVINCED SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOCAL SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING A BRIEF DIMINISHMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SUGGESTED BY CLIMATOLOGY.
INSTABILITY REGENERATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON MODEL PERFORMANCE. THE
00Z GFS/NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THE DIGGING TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWED SUIT BUT NOT AS
DRASTICALLY. LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS EC/UKMET WHICH WHERE IN
BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PREV FORECAST. OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURS AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEK
WITH MOD CONFIDENCE FOR SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY FORECAST FOR
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP AND
THUNDER TO THE REGION. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT LOCATION AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS.
REGARDLESS...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. BELIEVE DIURNAL PRECIP
WILL BE THE MAIN TREAT FOR THIS DAY...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE TO MORE OF A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE DUE TO THE SLOW DOWN
OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. ONLY THING TRULY LACKING IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE AROUND FROM THE PREV NIGHTS
SHOWERS/THUNDER. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEN BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 1.5
IN.

THIS WEEKEND...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEK...CAA WILL
BRING A THERMAL TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVG. AM NOT ANTICIPATED ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR IN THE FUTURE AS THE ENTIRE
AREA IS NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES...BUT CIGS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FIND. ONLY TERMINALS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...SHOWING ANY IFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

TODAY...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TUESDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR/MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING OF VFR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING OF VFR
IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST OF TODAY. LEANED MORE HEAVILY UPON THE SWAN WAVE
GUIDANCE AS THE WNA WAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. STILL
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EXPANDING
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RIGHT NOW TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH EXISTING ADVISORY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE SEAS ABOVE 5FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE BETTER DAY FOR TSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS AS
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KALY 210825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
JET...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS LINE HAS WEAKENED FROM EARLIER
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN IT PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
ACROSS CNY AND THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION. STILL...A QUICK DOWNPOUR
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN ADKS AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH WILL STAY DRY. BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE AND MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE DRY.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE TO THE W-SW.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF AND
ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT KPSF. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING
EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR KSYR.  THERE
IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING AT AROUND 35
KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 210531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON A TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT...A MILD AND MUGGY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE STILL WELL INTO THE 60S....AND TDS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ALL THE WAY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL.
A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.

THE LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS TWO SEPARATE LINES OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND LAKE ONTARIO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED...DESPITE IT
BEING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AS
THESE STORMS CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THEY SHOULD GRAZE OUR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACK ZONES. WHILE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING ACROSS OUR AREA...ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND TO KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN PLACE. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND DECENT MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...THERES NO REASON TO THINK THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS...THEY
STILL MAY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. THEY SHOULD BE MOVING EAST INTO VT BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
MINS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF
AND ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT
KPSF. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS
MOVING EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR
KSYR. THERE IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
AT AROUND 35 KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 210250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE U50S TO M60S OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVING EASTWARD AS A WEAK
WAVE/LOW MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS WERE
ACCEPTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND
MID AND U50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
ALSO STRATUS SHOULD FORM WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS WITH MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL DUE TO FOG AND CIGS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/LOW WILL ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFER. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210223
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW
ENE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...FINALLY GOT A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT IN AN
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EAST OF CHATHAM MA TO PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHTNING STROKES. THIS CELL WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION...THINKING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF FOG SHOULD COVER THE REST OF TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
BRING THEM BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY
CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK S AS A BACKDOOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NE ZONES BY DAYBREAK. CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY N ZONES BUT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY. CONTINUED SW FLOW NEAR THE S COAST WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG BANK SITTING OVER ACK TO NEAR BID AND THIS WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT SO WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE S
COAST. THE FOG MAY SPREAD FURTHER N OVERNIGHT BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF VSBYS 1/4SM OR LESS WILL BE ALONG THE S COAST.
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
POSITION OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURE
VARIABILITY ACROSS SNE AND WHERE BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE.
WE FOLLOWED NAM SOLUTION WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES THE LOCATION OF
THESE SHALLOW FRONTS DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. THIS SUGGESTS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MA TO RI. LARGE TEMP
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SNE WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE 60S E
COASTAL MA THROUGH SE NH...TO THE MID 80S LOWER CT VALLEY.

AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG WHICH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7 C/KM. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN THE COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NE WITH THE GRADIENT LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENG...BUT MAGNITUDE WILL APPROACH 30 KT
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CLOSER
TO CT VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT
AND WILL APPROACH NE ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
STRONG CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...OTHERWISE MODELS
ARE SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT OF
A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED-THU
* COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...850MB TEMPS UP TO 15-16C WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PWATS MORE THAN TWICE THAT OF NORMAL.
ALONG WITH THE ABOVE...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND ANCHORED MORE OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY...SO AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY. WITH THE PWATS AS HIGH AS THEY
ARE...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IT THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WHERE THE GFS
WAS FASTER WITH THE TIMING SO THERES STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING. THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR CAN BE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER...LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER BUT THE AREA WILL
SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL MIDDAY COULD SEE
WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
IFR CONDITIONS EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM KBID-KFMH-KHYA-KCQX.
STILL EXPECTING THESE IFR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE ONSHORE.
EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SPREAD EVEN FARTHER INLAND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WEST OF KMHT TO KORH
TO KIJD LINE /CT VALLEY/...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF
THAT LINE IN MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY DURING THE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT
WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE
BRIEF E/NE GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND SW WINDS
OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE WATERS.
WE FOLLOWED SWAN GUIDANCE FOR SEA FORECAST WHICH IS HANDLING SWELL
BETTER THAN WNAWAVE GUIDANCE. EXPECT MARGINAL SCA SWELL TO 5 FT
OVER THE OPEN S COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT SUBSIDING TUE.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS. SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 25KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
RESULTING IN SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FEET.  WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
STARTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN VARIABLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ020>023.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE
U50S TO M60S OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH A LIGHT S/SE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MID AND U50S TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
ALSO STRATUS SHOULD FORM WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS WITH MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL DUE TO FOG AND CIGS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/LOW WILL ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFER. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202325
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENG AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW ENG.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE JUST
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF BOSTON. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER SUNSET. HAVE UPDATED
THE POPS AND THE TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK S AS A BACKDOOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NE ZONES BY DAYBREAK. CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY N ZONES BUT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY. CONTINUED SW FLOW NEAR THE S COAST WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG BANK SITTING OVER ACK TO NEAR BID AND THIS WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT SO WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE S
COAST. THE FOG MAY SPREAD FURTHER N OVERNIGHT BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF VSBYS 1/4SM OR LESS WILL BE ALONG THE S COAST.
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
POSITION OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURE
VARIABILITY ACROSS SNE AND WHERE BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE.
WE FOLLOWED NAM SOLUTION WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES THE LOCATION OF
THESE SHALLOW FRONTS DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. THIS SUGGESTS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MA TO RI. LARGE TEMP
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SNE WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE 60S E
COASTAL MA THROUGH SE NH...TO THE MID 80S LOWER CT VALLEY.

AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG WHICH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7 C/KM. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN THE COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NE WITH THE GRADIENT LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENG...BUT MAGNITUDE WILL APPROACH 30 KT
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CLOSER
TO CT VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT
AND WILL APPROACH NE ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
STRONG CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...OTHERWISE MODELS
ARE SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT OF
A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED-THU
* COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...850MB TEMPS UP TO 15-16C WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PWATS MORE THAN TWICE THAT OF NORMAL.
ALONG WITH THE ABOVE...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND ANCHORED MORE OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY...SO AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY. WITH THE PWATS AS HIGH AS THEY
ARE...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IT THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WHERE THE GFS
WAS FASTER WITH THE TIMING SO THERES STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING. THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR CAN BE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER...LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER BUT THE AREA WILL
SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL MIDDAY COULD SEE
WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT ACK AND BID. EXPECT THESE IFR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ONTO THE CAPE AND SOUTH COAST OF
RI/MA AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE ONSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...HOWEVER...HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS ON THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WEST OF MHT TO ORH TO
IJD LINE /CT VALLEY/...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF
THAT LINE IN MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY DURING THE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT
WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE
BRIEF E/NE GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND SW WINDS
OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE WATERS.
WE FOLLOWED SWAN GUIDANCE FOR SEA FORECAST WHICH IS HANDLING SWELL
BETTER THAN WNAWAVE GUIDANCE. EXPECT MARGINAL SCA SWELL TO 5 FT
OVER THE OPEN S COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT SUBSIDING TUE.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS. SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 25KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
RESULTING IN SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FEET.  WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
STARTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN VARIABLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ020>023.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 202030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A WARM SECTOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED THREAT WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT DIPPING S/SE FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY OVER NRN NY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE JUST
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND
THE H500 RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST MAY
TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST SHOT FOR A SHOWER.

THE FCST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S TO L60S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. THE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...AND THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS
WERE ACCEPTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND
MID AND U50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...CLOUD COVER IS
DIMINISHING AT KALB/KPOU. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WILL STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE REGION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES HOWEVER VSBYS AND CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS. AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH VCSH CONDITIONS AT KPSF/KPOU AND HIGHER SHOWER
CHANCES WITH -SHRA CONDITIONS AT KALB/KGFL AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI AM...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
FRI PM-SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...LFM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202003
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENG AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW ENG.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 500-1000 J/KG
BUT MLCAPES ARE VERY MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG. DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LESS THAN 30 KT.
NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION...BUT STILL CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM INTO THIS EVENING BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK S AS A BACKDOOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NE ZONES BY DAYBREAK. CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY N ZONES BUT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY. CONTINUED SW FLOW NEAR THE S COAST WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG BANK SITTING OVER ACK TO NEAR BID AND THIS WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT SO WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE S
COAST. THE FOG MAY SPREAD FURTHER N OVERNIGHT BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF VSBYS 1/4SM OR LESS WILL BE ALONG THE S COAST.
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
POSITION OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURE
VARIABILITY ACROSS SNE AND WHERE BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE.
WE FOLLOWED NAM SOLUTION WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES THE LOCATION OF
THESE SHALLOW FRONTS DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. THIS SUGGESTS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MA TO RI. LARGE TEMP
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SNE WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE 60S E
COASTAL MA THROUGH SE NH...TO THE MID 80S LOWER CT VALLEY.

AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG WHICH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7 C/KM. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN THE COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NE WITH THE GRADIENT LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENG...BUT MAGNITUDE WILL APPROACH 30 KT
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CLOSER
TO CT VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT
AND WILL APPROACH NE ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
STRONG CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...OTHERWISE MODELS
ARE SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT OF
A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED-THU
* COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...850MB TEMPS UP TO 15-16C WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PWATS MORE THAN TWICE THAT OF NORMAL.
ALONG WITH THE ABOVE...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND ANCHORED MORE OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY...SO AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY. WITH THE PWATS AS HIGH AS THEY
ARE...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IT THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WHERE THE GFS
WAS FASTER WITH THE TIMING SO THERES STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING. THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR CAN BE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER...LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER BUT THE AREA WILL
SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL MIDDAY COULD SEE
WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

VFR HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH LIFR
PERSISTING AT ACK. CURRENT THINKING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IFR/LIFR WILL BE NEAR THE S COAST AND
COASTAL PLAIN. IFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUE IN THE CT
VALLEY...BUT LOWER CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH NEAR THE COAST WITH
E/SE FLOW AND CIGS MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID
NOT INCLUDE IN 18Z TAF. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR LATER TONIGHT
AND IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT
WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE
BRIEF E/NE GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND SW WINDS
OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE WATERS.
WE FOLLOWED SWAN GUIDANCE FOR SEA FORECAST WHICH IS HANDLING SWELL
BETTER THAN WNAWAVE GUIDANCE. EXPECT MARGINAL SCA SWELL TO 5 FT
OVER THE OPEN S COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT SUBSIDING TUE.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS. SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 25KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
RESULTING IN SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FEET.  WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
STARTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN VARIABLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ020>023.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER
WEATHER...BEFORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL TURN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE..
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE ISLANDS WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH HERE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD EVENING.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MARGINAL SB CAPES NEARING 500 J/KG.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
IS LESS THAN 30 KT. STILL EXPECT WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TOP
DEVELOP BUT AREAL EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE N OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE WE
CONTINUED CHC POPS. LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE S COAST.
EXPECT MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...BUT 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IMMEDIATE S COAST. IT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HUMID AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS BEST DYNAMICS
STAY TO OUR N AND W. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL FORCE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD TUE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT GFS SEEMS
TO OVERDO CONVECTION RIDING E ALONG BOUNDARY FROM GREAT LAKES. NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN STABILIZING AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS FLOW TURNS MORE E/SE AND FOCUSES ANY CONVECTION TO
OUR W/N WHERE IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WE ARE NOT THINKING WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
DAY.

SHOULD BE WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...
FROM LOWER 60S ALONG E MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD TO UPPER
70S ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY. LEANED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS WHICH
CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * WARM AND MUGGY WED/THU THEN TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRI
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND THU
  * DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW INCLUDING FRONTAL
POSITIONS FROM THE 12Z/19 GEFS AND ECENS. BOTH OF THESE ENSEMBLE
DATA SETS HAVE A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WED
AND THU WITH TRUE WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. BOTH ENSEMBLES
OFFER +16C AIRMASS AT 850 MB AND +20C AT 925 MB OVER THE REGION
WED. THUS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS IF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. IT WILL BE MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM NIGHTS /WED AND THU/ ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BOTH WED AND THU GIVEN
WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA BOTH DAYS. ALSO MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT TUE EVENING/NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST INSTABILITY GREATER WED (MEAN CAPE ABOUT 1000J/KG) THAN THU.
HOWEVER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GREATER FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE THU ALONG WITH STRONGER JET DYNAMICS /0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/...SO CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED/NUMEROUS THU THAN WED.
IN ADDITION GEFS SUGGEST INSTABILITY RIDGE ACROSS NY/PA AND NJ.
THEREFORE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WED AND THU. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND PWATS OF +1
TO +2 STD HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE
THU OR FRI. 00Z GFS SLOWER WITH FROPA AS IT DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER NOT TO CHASE A SINGLE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SO WILL FOLLOW PRES PATTERN FROM GEFS AND
ECENS. THIS SUGGEST FRI WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY FROM WARM AND
MUGGY TO A DRY...MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN FACT BY SAT BOTH GEFS AND ECENS HAVE A 1030MB HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CORE OF THIS ANOMALOUS COOL
AIRMASS /850 TEMPS 0C TO +2C/ ACROSS NORTHERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH...THEN
SLOWLY MODERATING BY MON. HENCE MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. IN FACT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MU30S SAT AND SUN MORNING!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

VFR HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH LIFR
PERSISTING AT ACK. CURRENT THINKING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IFR/LIFR WILL BE NEAR THE S COAST AND
COASTAL PLAIN. IFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUE IN THE CT
VALLEY...BUT LOWER CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH NEAR THE COAST WITH
E/SE FLOW AND CIGS MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID
NOT INCLUDE IN 18Z TAF. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR LATER TONIGHT
AND IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT
WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG WITH
A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WATERS BUT SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD IN SOUTHERLY SWELL...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. ALTHOUGH SW FLOW IS MODEST AT
BEST IT SHOULD STILL CREATE STEEP WAVES ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
VINEYARD SOUND DURING OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED
SCA FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. FRONT DROPS BACK S
TUE AND SHIFTS WINDS TO E/SE...SO VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL DUE TO DECAYING
SOUTHERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT... BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NE WINDS
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS.
RAIN AND FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY. MODEST WIND AT BEST WITH MARGINAL
SWELL.

WED AND THU... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MODEST SSW
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. SSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-25
KT FROM LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS THU WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW SHOULD
COMMENCE. VSBY WILL IMPROVE WITH THE WIND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD

000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40 SHOWS H500 RIDGE CONTINUING
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIM OF THE RIDGE IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. NO REAL STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HAVE REMOVED ALL THE POPS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO 22Z...AND KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHC CLOSER TO
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MORE LIKE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS PM.

THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED THE MOST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKYCOVER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS WITH
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREENS.

EXPECTING MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME
L80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. M60S TO M70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH DEWPTS IN
THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...CLOUD COVER IS
DIMINISHING AT KALB/KPOU. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WILL STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE REGION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES HOWEVER VSBYS AND CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS. AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH VCSH CONDITIONS AT KPSF/KPOU AND HIGHER SHOWER
CHANCES WITH -SHRA CONDITIONS AT KALB/KGFL AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI AM...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
FRI PM-SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 201730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40 SHOWS H500 RIDGE CONTINUING
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIM OF THE RIDGE IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. NO REAL STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HAVE REMOVED ALL THE POPS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO 22Z...AND KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHC CLOSER TO
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MORE LIKE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS PM.

THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED THE MOST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKYCOVER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS WITH
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREENS.

EXPECTING MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME
L80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. M60S TO M70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH DEWPTS IN
THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WHEN THE CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR. THE CEILING SHOULD BECOME SOLIDLY VFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED 20Z-22Z. THERE
CLOUD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE CLEARING LINE BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAFS.

SOUTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201431
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1031 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER
WEATHER...BEFORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL TURN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BUT NUMEROUS
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
ENOUGH THINNING OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE NEAR THE S COAST DUE
TO SW FLOW.

WARM FRONT STALLS JUST N OF FA TODAY WITH SW FLOW BRINING WARMER
AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS INTO SNE. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
12-14C SO MAXES COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM
THE S COAST...BUT 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IMMEDIATE S COAST. IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT HUMID AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER
60S.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES ONLY FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 500
J/KG...AND MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR LESS THAN 30KT. THAT SAID WE DO
EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM S
COAST...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE N OF THE MASS PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS BEST DYNAMICS
STAY TO OUR N AND W. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL FORCE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD TUE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT GFS SEEMS
TO OVERDO CONVECTION RIDING E ALONG BOUNDARY FROM GREAT LAKES. NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN STABILIZING AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS FLOW TURNS MORE E/SE AND FOCUSES ANY CONVECTION TO
OUR W/N WHERE IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WE ARE NOT THINKING WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
DAY.

SHOULD BE WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...
FROM LOWER 60S ALONG E MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD TO UPPER
70S ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY. LEANED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS WHICH
CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * WARM AND MUGGY WED/THU THEN TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRI
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND THU
  * DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW INCLUDING FRONTAL
POSITIONS FROM THE 12Z/19 GEFS AND ECENS. BOTH OF THESE ENSEMBLE
DATA SETS HAVE A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WED
AND THU WITH TRUE WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. BOTH ENSEMBLES
OFFER +16C AIRMASS AT 850 MB AND +20C AT 925 MB OVER THE REGION
WED. THUS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS IF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. IT WILL BE MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM NIGHTS /WED AND THU/ ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BOTH WED AND THU GIVEN
WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA BOTH DAYS. ALSO MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT TUE EVENING/NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST INSTABILITY GREATER WED (MEAN CAPE ABOUT 1000J/KG) THAN THU.
HOWEVER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GREATER FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE THU ALONG WITH STRONGER JET DYNAMICS /0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/...SO CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED/NUMEROUS THU THAN WED.
IN ADDITION GEFS SUGGEST INSTABILITY RIDGE ACROSS NY/PA AND NJ.
THEREFORE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WED AND THU. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND PWATS OF +1
TO +2 STD HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE
THU OR FRI. 00Z GFS SLOWER WITH FROPA AS IT DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER NOT TO CHASE A SINGLE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SO WILL FOLLOW PRES PATTERN FROM GEFS AND
ECENS. THIS SUGGEST FRI WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY FROM WARM AND
MUGGY TO A DRY...MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN FACT BY SAT BOTH GEFS AND ECENS HAVE A 1030MB HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CORE OF THIS ANOMALOUS COOL
AIRMASS /850 TEMPS 0C TO +2C/ ACROSS NORTHERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH...THEN
SLOWLY MODERATING BY MON. HENCE MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. IN FACT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MU30S SAT AND SUN MORNING!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN THE INTERIOR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS...IFR WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR...BUT IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL DAY ACK. SCT
SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
POSSIBLE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG WITH
A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WATERS BUT SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD IN SOUTHERLY SWELL...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. ALTHOUGH SW FLOW IS MODEST AT
BEST IT SHOULD STILL CREATE STEEP WAVES ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
VINEYARD SOUND DURING OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED
SCA FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. FRONT DROPS BACK S
TUE AND SHIFTS WINDS TO E/SE...SO VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL DUE TO DECAYING
SOUTHERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT... BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NE WINDS
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS.
RAIN AND FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY. MODEST WIND AT BEST WITH MARGINAL
SWELL.

WED AND THU... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MODEST SSW
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. SSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-25
KT FROM LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS THU WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW SHOULD
COMMENCE. VSBY WILL IMPROVE WITH THE WIND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD

000
FXUS61 KALY 201425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
OUR REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGING...WITH
NW FLOW AT 500 HPA ACROSS OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE IT HAS REMAINED MAINLY RAIN FREE THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE A GOOD DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
THESE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS
AFTERNOON.

WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD
QUICKLY WARM UP...AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 12-14 DEGREES C WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE SHOULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO
HANG IN...TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SEEM LESS LIKELY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE RATHER BRIEF AND
PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...AND MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO
STAY DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WHEN THE CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR. THE CEILING SHOULD BECOME SOLIDLY VFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED 20Z-22Z. THERE
CLOUD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE CLEARING LINE BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAFS.

SOUTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 201137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
737 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL  OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGING...WITH NW
FLOW AT 500 HPA ACROSS OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE IT HAS REMAINED RAIN FREE THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE A GOOD DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
THESE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS
AFTERNOON.

WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD
QUICKLY WARM UP...AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 12-14 DEGREES C WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE SHOULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO
HANG IN...TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SEEM LESS LIKELY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
VISIBLE ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADKS
AND NORTHERN VT. THESE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THE
LATEST 06Z NAM AND 06Z GFS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE LATEST 07Z 3KM
HRRR DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER SPARSE. AS A RESULT...ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE RATHER BRIEF AND PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL...AND MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WHEN THE CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR. THE CEILING SHOULD BECOME SOLIDLY VFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED 20Z-22Z. THERE
CLOUD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE CLEARING LINE BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAFS.

SOUTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201101
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER
WEATHER...BEFORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL TURN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AT THE LATEST. TEMPS ALREADY OFF TO A
MILD START WITH READINGS IN THE U50S AND L60S AT 7 AM. TEMPS WILL
SOAR THROUGHT THE 70S TO AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ONCE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION. IN ADDITION 0-6KM WIND FIELD DROPS BELOW 30 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS ANY CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
===================================================================
LAST OF SHOWERS WERE EXITING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH COLUMN AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HOLD STRONG GIVEN SW FLOW.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES ONLY FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 500
J/KG...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 5C/KM...AND
MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT. THAT SAID WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR.
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM S COAST...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SW NH AND NW MA. HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS AFTER 18Z.

CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S ALONG S COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS BEST DYNAMICS
STAY TO OUR N AND W. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL FORCE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD TUE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT GFS SEEMS
TO OVERDO CONVECTION RIDING E ALONG BOUNDARY FROM GREAT LAKES. NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN STABILIZING AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS FLOW TURNS MORE E/SE AND FOCUSES ANY CONVECTION TO
OUR W/N WHERE IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WE ARE NOT THINKING WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
DAY.

SHOULD BE WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...
FROM LOWER 60S ALONG E MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD TO UPPER
70S ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY. LEANED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS WHICH
CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * WARM AND MUGGY WED/THU THEN TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRI
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND THU
  * DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW INCLUDING FRONTAL
POSITIONS FROM THE 12Z/19 GEFS AND ECENS. BOTH OF THESE ENSEMBLE
DATA SETS HAVE A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WED
AND THU WITH TRUE WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. BOTH ENSEMBLES
OFFER +16C AIRMASS AT 850 MB AND +20C AT 925 MB OVER THE REGION
WED. THUS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS IF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. IT WILL BE MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM NIGHTS /WED AND THU/ ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BOTH WED AND THU GIVEN
WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA BOTH DAYS. ALSO MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT TUE EVENING/NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST INSTABILITY GREATER WED (MEAN CAPE ABOUT 1000J/KG) THAN THU.
HOWEVER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GREATER FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE THU ALONG WITH STRONGER JET DYNAMICS /0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/...SO CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED/NUMEROUS THU THAN WED.
IN ADDITION GEFS SUGGEST INSTABILITY RIDGE ACROSS NY/PA AND NJ.
THEREFORE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WED AND THU. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND PWATS OF +1
TO +2 STD HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE
THU OR FRI. 00Z GFS SLOWER WITH FROPA AS IT DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER NOT TO CHASE A SINGLE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SO WILL FOLLOW PRES PATTERN FROM GEFS AND
ECENS. THIS SUGGEST FRI WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY FROM WARM AND
MUGGY TO A DRY...MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN FACT BY SAT BOTH GEFS AND ECENS HAVE A 1030MB HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CORE OF THIS ANOMALOUS COOL
AIRMASS /850 TEMPS 0C TO +2C/ ACROSS NORTHERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH...THEN
SLOWLY MODERATING BY MON. HENCE MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. IN FACT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MU30S SAT AND SUN MORNING!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED 12Z-15Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 18Z
EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL
DAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
POSSIBLE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG WITH
A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WATERS BUT SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD IN SOUTHERLY SWELL...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. ALTHOUGH SW FLOW IS MODEST AT
BEST IT SHOULD STILL CREATE STEEP WAVES ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
VINEYARD SOUND DURING OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED
SCA FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. FRONT DROPS BACK S
TUE AND SHIFTS WINDS TO E/SE...SO VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL DUE TO DECAYING
SOUTHERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT... BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NE WINDS
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS.
RAIN AND FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY. MODEST WIND AT BEST WITH MARGINAL
SWELL.

WED AND THU... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MODEST SSW
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. SSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-25
KT FROM LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS THU WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW SHOULD
COMMENCE. VSBY WILL IMPROVE WITH THE WIND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD

000
FXUS61 KALY 201022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
622 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL  OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGING...WITH NW
FLOW AT 500 HPA ACROSS OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE IT HAS REMAINED RAIN FREE THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE A GOOD DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
THESE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS
AFTERNOON.

WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD
QUICKLY WARM UP...AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 12-14 DEGREES C WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE SHOULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO
HANG IN...TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SEEM LESS LIKELY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
VISIBLE ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADKS
AND NORTHERN VT. THESE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THE
LATEST 06Z NAM AND 06Z GFS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE LATEST 07Z 3KM
HRRR DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER SPARSE. AS A RESULT...ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE RATHER BRIEF AND PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL...AND MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS RADAR NOT SHOWING ANY
SHOWERS IN THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A LIGHT SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES...IN THE
IFR RANGE TO START AT KPOU AND KPSF...AND MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO JUST BELOW 1000 FEET EVEN AT KALB AND KGFL
AFTER 08Z.  CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AT ALL
SITES.  SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-12Z AT
ALL SITES...WHEN CEILINGS ARE AT THEIR LOWEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD GO TO
SCATTERED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AFTER 21Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THE
MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 200809
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL  OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGING...WITH NW
FLOW AT 500 HPA ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT BUT
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WHILE IT HAS REMAINED RAIN FREE THIS MORNING...THERE ARE A GOOD
DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT
LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT THESE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD QUICKLY WARM UP...AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 12-14
DEGREES C WILL BE IN PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS
BREAK UP...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO HANG IN...TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG MAY
SUN THIS SCENARIO WOULD SEEM LESS LIKELY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE RATHER BRIEF
AND PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS RADAR NOT SHOWING ANY
SHOWERS IN THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A LIGHT SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES...IN THE
IFR RANGE TO START AT KPOU AND KPSF...AND MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO JUST BELOW 1000 FEET EVEN AT KALB AND KGFL
AFTER 08Z.  CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AT ALL
SITES.  SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-12Z AT
ALL SITES...WHEN CEILINGS ARE AT THEIR LOWEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD GO TO
SCATTERED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AFTER 21Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THE
MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER
WEATHER...BEFORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL TURN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM UPDATE...

LAST OF SHOWERS WERE EXITING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH COLUMN AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HOLD STRONG GIVEN SW FLOW.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES ONLY FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 500
J/KG...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 5C/KM...AND
MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT. THAT SAID WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR.
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM S COAST...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SW NH AND NW MA. HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS AFTER 18Z.

CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S ALONG S COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS BEST DYNAMICS
STAY TO OUR N AND W. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL FORCE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD TUE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT GFS SEEMS
TO OVERDO CONVECTION RIDING E ALONG BOUNDARY FROM GREAT LAKES. NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN STABILIZING AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS FLOW TURNS MORE E/SE AND FOCUSES ANY CONVECTION TO
OUR W/N WHERE IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WE ARE NOT THINKING WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
DAY.

SHOULD BE WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...
FROM LOWER 60S ALONG E MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD TO UPPER
70S ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY. LEANED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS WHICH
CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

  * WARM AND MUGGY WED/THU THEN TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRI
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND THU
  * DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW INCLUDING FRONTAL
POSITIONS FROM THE 12Z/19 GEFS AND ECENS. BOTH OF THESE ENSEMBLE
DATA SETS HAVE A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WED
AND THU WITH TRUE WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. BOTH ENSEMBLES
OFFER +16C AIRMASS AT 850 MB AND +20C AT 925 MB OVER THE REGION
WED. THUS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS IF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. IT WILL BE MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM NIGHTS /WED AND THU/ ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BOTH WED AND THU GIVEN
WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA BOTH DAYS. ALSO MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT TUE EVENING/NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST INSTABILITY GREATER WED (MEAN CAPE ABOUT 1000J/KG) THAN THU.
HOWEVER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GREATER FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE THU ALONG WITH STRONGER JET DYNAMICS /0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/...SO CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED/NUMEROUS THU THAN WED.
IN ADDITION GEFS SUGGEST INSTABILITY RIDGE ACROSS NY/PA AND NJ.
THEREFORE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WED AND THU. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND PWATS OF +1
TO +2 STD HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE
THU OR FRI. 00Z GFS SLOWER WITH FROPA AS IT DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER NOT TO CHASE A SINGLE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SO WILL FOLLOW PRES PATTERN FROM GEFS AND
ECENS. THIS SUGGEST FRI WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY FROM WARM AND
MUGGY TO A DRY...MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN FACT BY SAT BOTH GEFS AND ECENS HAVE A 1030MB HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CORE OF THIS ANOMALOUS COOL
AIRMASS /850 TEMPS 0C TO +2C/ ACROSS NORTHERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH...THEN
SLOWLY MODERATING BY MON. HENCE MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. IN FACT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MU30S SAT AND SUN MORNING!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED 12Z-15Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 18Z
EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL
DAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
POSSIBLE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG WITH
A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WATERS BUT SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD IN SOUTHERLY SWELL...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. ALTHOUGH SW FLOW IS MODEST AT
BEST IT SHOULD STILL CREATE STEEP WAVES ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
VINEYARD SOUND DURING OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED
SCA FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. FRONT DROPS BACK S
TUE AND SHIFTS WINDS TO E/SE...SO VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL DUE TO DECAYING
SOUTHERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT... BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NE WINDS
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS.
RAIN AND FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY. MODEST WIND AT BEST WITH MARGINAL
SWELL.

WED AND THU... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MODEST SSW
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. SSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-25
KT FROM LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS THU WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW SHOULD
COMMENCE. VSBY WILL IMPROVE WITH THE WIND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200717
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
317 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER
WEATHER...BEFORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL TURN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM UPDATE...

LAST OF SHOWERS WERE EXITING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH COLUMN AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HOLD STRONG GIVEN SW FLOW.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES ONLY FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 500
J/KG...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 5C/KM...AND
MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT. THAT SAID WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR.
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM S COAST...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SW NH AND NW MA. HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS AFTER 18Z.

CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S ALONG S COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS BEST DYNAMICS
STAY TO OUR N AND W. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL FORCE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD TUE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT GFS SEEMS
TO OVERDO CONVECTION RIDING E ALONG BOUNDARY FROM GREAT LAKES. NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN STABILIZING AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS FLOW TURNS MORE E/SE AND FOCUSES ANY CONVECTION TO
OUR W/N WHERE IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WE ARE NOT THINKING WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
DAY.

SHOULD BE WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...
FROM LOWER 60S ALONG E MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD TO UPPER
70S ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY. LEANED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS WHICH
CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW
HAVE OPTED FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDER PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
SUCH THAT EXPECT THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED 12Z-15Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 18Z
EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL
DAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WATERS BUT SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD IN SOUTHERLY SWELL...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. ALTHOUGH SW FLOW IS MODEST AT
BEST IT SHOULD STILL CREATE STEEP WAVES ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
VINEYARD SOUND DURING OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED
SCA FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. FRONT DROPS BACK S
TUE AND SHIFTS WINDS TO E/SE...SO VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL DUE TO DECAYING
SOUTHERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS. SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200527
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
127 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED COAST. HRRR/RAP
CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND BRING SHOWERS
TO AN END BEFORE DAYBREAK /LAST ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS/.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THIS WILL BE RULE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...COULD SEE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER TEMPS
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST PLACE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDER PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.  INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT EXPECT
THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED 12Z-15Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 18Z
EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL
DAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.  VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 200522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH...ALONG
WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE
ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO LITTLE FORCING IN PLACE...NO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT S-SE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF MIST...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WON/T DROP MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS DUE TO
THE HIGH RH AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTER WITH LOWS OF
CLOUDS AND PERIODS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE FORECAST A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN AND EVE...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...WILL
ALSO BE INCLUDING A CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN FROM TUESDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE WARMER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80... LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHEARS OUT AS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FLATTENS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HUDSON
BAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
SYSTEM`S WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION BY
MID WEEK AND THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AS BOUNDARIES
MOVE THROUGH SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL NEED TO
SWING THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT THE MODELS ARE
NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE TO BE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION IT WILL BE COOL WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NOTE: THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START
ON MAY 20TH FOR EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY AND ON MAY 25TH ON THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS RADAR NOT SHOWING ANY
SHOWERS IN THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A LIGHT SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES...IN THE
IFR RANGE TO START AT KPOU AND KPSF...AND MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO JUST BELOW 1000 FEET EVEN AT KALB AND
KGFL AFTER 08Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AT ALL
SITES. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-12Z AT
ALL SITES...WHEN CEILINGS ARE AT THEIR LOWEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD GO TO
SCATTERED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AFTER 21Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THE
MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS END
THIS EVENING. AS A HUMID AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AT THE SAME SPEED...BUT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH BEFORE IT ENDS THIS EVENING. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 200248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH...ALONG
WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT...ONLY A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
WINDHAM COUNTY VT AND EVEN THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH...AS A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS
ENVELOPED THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTER WITH LOWS OF
CLOUDS AND PERIODS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE FORECAST A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN AND EVE...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...WILL
ALSO BE INCLUDING A CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN FROM TUESDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE WARMER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80... LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHEARS OUT AS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FLATTENS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HUDSON
BAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
SYSTEM`S WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION BY
MID WEEK AND THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AS BOUNDARIES
MOVE THROUGH SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL NEED TO
SWING THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT THE MODELS ARE
NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE TO BE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION IT WILL BE COOL WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NOTE: THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START
ON MAY 20TH FOR EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY AND ON MAY 25TH ON THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE ALL OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH ONE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS IS PASSING BY JUST
NORTH OF KGFL. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES INITIALLY
IN MVFR RANGE LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME WILL MENTION IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KPOU/KPSF
BEFORE 06Z...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FORECASTING IFR AT KALB/KGFL UNTIL
06Z SINCE CIGS ARE INITIALLY HIGHER AT THESE LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BETWEEN AROUND 13Z-
16Z...AS THE STRONG LATE MAY SUN WORKS ON THE STRATUS DECK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY START TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON...SO WILL
MENTION VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS END
THIS EVENING. AS A HUMID AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AT THE SAME SPEED...BUT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH BEFORE IT ENDS THIS EVENING. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200113
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
915 PM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD COAST. HRRR/RAP
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND BRING SHOWERS TO AN END
OVER MOST OF REGION BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT A FEW HOURS LATER AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. SO FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT
/UNDER 0.25 INCH/ AND EXPECT THAT TO BE RULE TONIGHT.

BEHIND AREA OF SHOWERS...CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN OVERNIGHT AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. EXPECT PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
REGION.

FORECAST LOWS IN 50S ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...COULD SEE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER TEMPS
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST PLACE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDER PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.  INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT EXPECT
THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVE OUT
AFTER 06Z AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.  VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 200001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
801 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALONG WITH SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR CLIPPING AREAS FROM LAKE GEORGE INTO
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND JUST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...JUST AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST
WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST BREEZE PERSISTING.

POPS WILL BE FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...DROPPING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY 06Z. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
TEMPS NOT DROPPING THAT MUCH FROM THERE CURRENT READINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW OR MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTER WITH LOWS OF
CLOUDS AND PERIODS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE FORECAST A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN AND EVE...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...WILL
ALSO BE INCLUDING A CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN FROM TUESDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE WARMER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80... LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHEARS OUT AS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FLATTENS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HUDSON
BAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
SYSTEM`S WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION BY
MID WEEK AND THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AS BOUNDARIES
MOVE THROUGH SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL NEED TO
SWING THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT THE MODELS ARE
NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE TO BE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION IT WILL BE COOL WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NOTE: THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START
ON MAY 20TH FOR EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY AND ON MAY 25TH ON THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE ALL OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH ONE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS IS PASSING BY JUST
NORTH OF KGFL. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES INITIALLY
IN MVFR RANGE LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME WILL MENTION IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KPOU/KPSF
BEFORE 06Z...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FORECASTING IFR AT KALB/KGFL UNTIL
06Z SINCE CIGS ARE INITIALLY HIGHER AT THESE LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BETWEEN AROUND 13Z-
16Z...AS THE STRONG LATE MAY SUN WORKS ON THE STRATUS DECK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY START TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON...SO WILL
MENTION VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS END
THIS EVENING. AS A HUMID AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AT THE SAME SPEED...BUT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH BEFORE IT ENDS THIS EVENING. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

000
FXUS61 KBOX 192331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SEEING SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS BUT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END WEST OF AN ORANGE
TO WILLIMANTIC LINE. MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE POPS TO REFLECT
THIS AS WELL AS SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES.

THE SFC WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE -SHRA IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING IN FROM THE W...SO EXPECT THAT THE THREAT FOR -SHRA WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW
PASSAGE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THIS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE DAMP GROUND BY DAYBREAK. THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN /SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1.0-1.5 INCHES PWAT BY 12Z/ WILL LEAD TO
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER THE -SHRA COME TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY DIP TO NEAR 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NH BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY 12Z. ALSO...WITH SOME WEAK MID LVL
RIDGING WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME BREAKS
OF EARLY MORNING SUN ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S AND E COASTS WHERE
STRATUS LINGERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...COULD SEE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER TEMPS
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST PLACE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDER PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.  INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT EXPECT
THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVE OUT
AFTER 06Z AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.  VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 192128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
525 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO EARLY
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALONG WITH
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THIS BATCH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE ALBANY ADIRODACK
ZONES AS WELL THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
POPS IN THESE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL BE FORECAST TO
DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...DROPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL
AREAS BY 06Z. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPS NOT DROPING THAT MUCH
FROM THERE CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW OR
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTER WITH LOWS OF
CLOUDS AND PERIODS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE FORECAST A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN AND EVE...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AS INSTABILTITY INCREASES...WILL
ALSO BE INCLUDING A CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN FROM TUESDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE WARMER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80... LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHEARS OUT AS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FLATTENS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HUDSON
BAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
SYSTEM`S WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION BY
MID WEEK AND THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AS BOUNDARIES
MOVE THROUGH SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL NEED TO
SWING THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT THE MODELS ARE
NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE TO BE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION IT WILL BE COOL WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NOTE: THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START
ON MAY 20TH FOR EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY AND ON MAY 25TH ON THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DISMAL
FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR
LEVELS. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SHOWER COVERAGE/TIMING. IN BETWEEN THESE SHOWERS ALL TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY AT MVFR LEVELS AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WITH VCSH PERSISTING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WHERE THE FLOW CAN BE CHANNELED.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4-8 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS END
THIS EVENING. AS A HUMID AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AT THE SAME SPEED...BUT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH BEFORE IT ENDS THIS EVENING. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

000
FXUS61 KBOX 192017
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THIS BAND IS LINED FROM SW NH
INTO SRN RI...AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE E. THE PRIMARY
REGION FOR THE SLOW MOVEMENT E HAS BEEN THE NEAR 15-20F DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION WHICH HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. ALL
SOUNDINGS...INCLUDING THE LAPS IN THE E...SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTURE
LOADING FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING...SO SUSPECT THESE
-SHRA WILL BE EVERYWHERE BY THE TIME THE SUN SETS.

THE SFC WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE -SHRA IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING IN FROM THE W...SO EXPECT THAT THE THREAT FOR -SHRA WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW
PASSAGE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THIS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE DAMP GROUND BY DAYBREAK. THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN /SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1.0-1.5 INCHES PWAT BY 12Z/ WILL LEAD TO
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER THE -SHRA COME TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY DIP TO NEAR 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NH BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY 12Z. ALSO...WITH SOME WEAK MID LVL
RIDGING WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME BREAKS
OF EARLY MORNING SUN ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S AND E COASTS WHERE
STRATUS LINGERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...COULD SEE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER TEMPS
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST PLACE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDER PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.  INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT EXPECT
THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAINLY VFR SAVE FOR IN AN AREA OF -SHRA IN WRN MA AND CENTRAL CT.
THIS BAND OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E
INTO THE EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN EXACT TIMING...BUT THE TAF
TREND REPRESENTS THE ROUGH TIMING OF BOTH -SHRA ONSET AND MVFR.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVES OUT AFTER 06Z AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE EARLY
MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BKN LOW STRATUS.
EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.  VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THIS BAND IS LINED FROM SW NH
INTO SRN RI...AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE E. THE PRIMARY
REGION FOR THE SLOW MOVEMENT E HAS BEEN THE NEAR 15-20F DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION WHICH HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. ALL
SOUNDINGS...INCLUDING THE LAPS IN THE E...SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTURE
LOADING FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING...SO SUSPECT THESE
-SHRA WILL BE EVERYWHERE BY THE TIME THE SUN SETS.

THE SFC WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE -SHRA IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING IN FROM THE W...SO EXPECT THAT THE THREAT FOR -SHRA WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW
PASSAGE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THIS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE DAMP GROUND BY DAYBREAK. THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN /SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1.0-1.5 INCHES PWAT BY 12Z/ WILL LEAD TO
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER THE -SHRA COME TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY DIP TO NEAR 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NH BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY 12Z. ALSO...WITH SOME WEAK MID LVL
RIDGING WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME BREAKS
OF EARLY MORNING SUN ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S AND E COASTS WHERE
STRATUS LINGERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE HUMIDITY AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
  EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ON TUE
* WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WED AFTERNOON
  THRU AT LEAST THU NIGHT
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PAINT A CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE FOR
TUE THRU THU BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING AND
DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST A BACKDOOR INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ON TUE INTO WED
MORNING THRU ALL EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THUS FOR TUE WILL RELEGATE
CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST TO SW ZONES. THEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE PRIOR RUN ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON CHARACTER
OF EASTERN TROF THAT WILL FLUSH OUT THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED NORTHERN
STREAM TROF DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP A NOTABLE CHUNK OF
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE MAIN STREAM NORTHERN FLOW AND RESULTS IN THE
SPIN UP OF A SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WET DAY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI.

TUE-WED...WILL INDICATE SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD AND SW OF A EEN-ORH-EWB LINE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR AIR MASS TO EASE INTO OUR NE ZONES.

THE TREND FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO BRING A BACKDOOR
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUE LENDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TUE WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE E COAST. THUS FOR EASTERN MA
AND RI TUE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY.

WED...THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVANCES BACK NE AND SO DOES
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THU...RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST LIKELY WESTERN HALF OF
AREA GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI...HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY DUE TO MODEL
DISPARITY IN HANDLING THE CONFIGURATION OF THE EASTERN TROF
ENERGY. FOR NOW...PLAN TO HAVE SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST OVER THE SE ZONES...OR AT LEAST THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...TO
PERSIST TO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. IN ESSENCE AM LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED BY WPC. THE GFS HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTION AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS SUPPORTED BY
ITS ENSEMBLES SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. IF INDEED A
SURFACE LOW WERE TO DEVELOP AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WE COULD
SEE WINDS APPROACHING MARGINAL GALES ON THE WATER AND A RISK FOR
SOME COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE FRI EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH
IS QUITE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY TO BEGIN WITH. THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT.

SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DRY AIR MASS
DOMINATING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAINLY VFR SAVE FOR IN AN AREA OF -SHRA IN WRN MA AND CENTRAL CT.
THIS BAND OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E
INTO THE EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN EXACT TIMING...BUT THE TAF
TREND REPRESENTS THE ROUGH TIMING OF BOTH -SHRA ONSET AND MVFR.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVES OUT AFTER 06Z AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE EARLY
MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BKN LOW STRATUS.
EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUE...SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CT
VALLEY...VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT
TSTMS.

THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LEFT OVER SWELL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 7 FT LIKELY TUE...SUBSIDING
WED. BUILDING SEAS LIKELY THU AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU THU. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 191752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALONG WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE RAISED POPS THERE TO LIKELY. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST POPS DECREASE TO ONLY 20 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE POPS ARE THEN FORECAST TO LSOWLY
DECREASE TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS THIS EVENING. HOURLY AND
MAX TEMPS GRIDS FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN REDUCE BY ABOUT 4 DEGREES WITH
HIGHS FOR TODAY NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER TO COMPLETELY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE NEARBY WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY LOWER SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. IT STILL LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY...AND MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

ON MONDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF LULL...WITH NO
STRONG FORCING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...WE WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS HAVING WARMED
TO 10-13 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE WARMING
WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL STILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS AS THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO THE REGION. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO START THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS SHOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN BY LATER IN THE DAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH PERHAPS OUR
FIRST SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF CONVECTION BEFORE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE LEAD BY THE ECMWF
SUGGEST A STRONG WARM FRONT PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING WEDNESDAY.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY SIGNIFY A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS BUT THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.  IF ENOUGH
UPSTREAM INSTABILITY WERE TO BE ATTAINED...THIS COULD MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING FORECAST WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  THIS WAVE WILL AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT ITS
SURFACE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH DIFFER...THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES IN THE MODEL SIMULATION THAT WILL
DISRUPT THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.  EITHER WAY...THIS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
EPISODE IS EXPECTED AND WITH PROGGED SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
AND FORECAST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 80S.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE COLD FROPA OCCURS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER A COOLER
AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CANADA.  JUST HOW COOL REMAINS TO BE SEEN
AS THE ECMWF WANTS TO PLUNGE THOSE H850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WITH THE GFS
A BIT MORE MODIFIED WITH POSITIVE H850 TEMPS.  IF THE ECMWF WERE TO
VERIFY...THIS COULD SIGNIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ISSUES.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DISMAL
FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR
LEVELS. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SHOWER COVERAGE/TIMING. IN BETWEEN THESE SHOWERS ALL TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY AT MVFR LEVELS AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WITH VCSH PERSISTING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WHERE THE FLOW CAN BE CHANNELED.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4-8 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN TO 50-65 PERCENT TODAY WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 6-12 MPH TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND GREENS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRY AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE BEFORE RETREATING BACK AS A WARM FRONT
ON WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...

PRIMARILY UPDATED SKIES WITH THIS UPDATE AS BULK OF LOW AND MID
CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL AND ALMOST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME YET
/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALMOST 15-20F/ IN THE EAST...WILL STILL
HOLD THE -SHRA IN CT AND W MA AT BAY UNTIL EVENING...AS IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THEN...WITH THE ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE
INCOMING WARM FRONT TO GET THESE -SHRA TO REACH THE GROUND. STILL
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL RAINFALL...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS AT LEAST SEE SOME DAMP GROUND.

OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL SPILL INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTH AND IMMEDIATE S SHORES /ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING
BUT LOW CLOUD DECK OVER COASTAL ME/NH PUSHED BACK INTO
MANCHESTER...LAWRENCE AND BEVERLY. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT
IS ABOUT AS FAR S AS IT WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING.

STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS TO OUR SW AS ACTIVITY OVER
NJ IS PIVOTING OFFSHORE. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INSISTENT WE WILL
SEE DEVELOPMENT INTO HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BEFORE DAYBREAK.
RAP/HRRR BRING SHOWERS TO CT VALLEY BY 8 AM AND TO REST OF AREA
BEFORE NOON. NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR THAT TO OCCUR BASED UPON
RADAR MOSAIC SO WE CONTINUED WITH SLOWER TREND SHOWN BY 00Z NAM...
NAMELY ANY SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLOUD
OVER AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMEST
TEMPS ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA /UPPER 60S/ AND USED A NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND AS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FEW SHOWERS.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG AS MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA
WHERE WE EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE. MODELS DO SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER...AGAIN
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO S COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ON
S/SW WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG FORMATION.

ALTHOUGH FRONT REMAINS TO OUR N MON...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MEANS CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST WHERE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEPER
MARINE LAYER. MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS INTERIOR THROUGHOUT DAY.

EXPECT WARMER/MORE HUMID DAY BUT NOT QUITE SURE WE CAN REACH
LOWER 80S AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS. TONED BACK A BIT BY BLENDING
NAM MOS AND 2M TEMPERATURES WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 70S
EXCEPT 60S AROUND CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE HUMIDITY AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
  EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ON TUE
* WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WED AFTERNOON
  THRU AT LEAST THU NIGHT
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PAINT A CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE FOR
TUE THRU THU BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING AND
DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST A BACKDOOR INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ON TUE INTO WED
MORNING THRU ALL EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THUS FOR TUE WILL RELEGATE
CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST TO SW ZONES. THEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE PRIOR RUN ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON CHARACTER
OF EASTERN TROF THAT WILL FLUSH OUT THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED NORTHERN
STREAM TROF DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP A NOTABLE CHUNK OF
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE MAIN STREAM NORTHERN FLOW AND RESULTS IN THE
SPIN UP OF A SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WET DAY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI.

TUE-WED...WILL INDICATE SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD AND SW OF A EEN-ORH-EWB LINE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR AIR MASS TO EASE INTO OUR NE ZONES.

THE TREND FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO BRING A BACKDOOR
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUE LENDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TUE WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE E COAST. THUS FOR EASTERN MA
AND RI TUE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY.

WED...THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVANCES BACK NE AND SO DOES
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THU...RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST LIKELY WESTERN HALF OF
AREA GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI...HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY DUE TO MODEL
DISPARITY IN HANDLING THE CONFIGURATION OF THE EASTERN TROF
ENERGY. FOR NOW...PLAN TO HAVE SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST OVER THE SE ZONES...OR AT LEAST THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...TO
PERSIST TO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. IN ESSENCE AM LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED BY WPC. THE GFS HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTION AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS SUPPORTED BY
ITS ENSEMBLES SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. IF INDEED A
SURFACE LOW WERE TO DEVELOP AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WE COULD
SEE WINDS APPROACHING MARGINAL GALES ON THE WATER AND A RISK FOR
SOME COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE FRI EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH
IS QUITE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY TO BEGIN WITH. THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT.

SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DRY AIR MASS
DOMINATING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAINLY VFR SAVE FOR IN AN AREA OF -SHRA IN WRN MA AND CENTRAL CT.
THIS BAND OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E
INTO THE EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN EXACT TIMING...BUT THE TAF
TREND REPRESENTS THE ROUGH TIMING OF BOTH -SHRA ONSET AND MVFR.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVES OUT AFTER 06Z AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE EARLY
MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BKN LOW STRATUS.
EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUE...SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CT
VALLEY...VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT
TSTMS.

THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS
TODAY. COULD SEE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.

INCREASING S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS TO
OUTER WATERS WHERE CURRENT SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MON. ADDED
RI/BLOCK IS SOUNDS TO SCA AS WELL...AND BUZZARDS BAY/VINEYARD
SOUND WHERE SW WINDS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES DURING TIMES OF
DEPARTING TIDE /HIGH TIDE 355 AM AND 437 PM MON AT NEW BEDFORD/.

SHOULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AND
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MON. PATCHY DENSE FOG PROBABLE
AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LEFT OVER SWELL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 7 FT LIKELY TUE...SUBSIDING
WED. BUILDING SEAS LIKELY THU AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU THU. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/THOMPSON
MARINE...JWD/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 191730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALONG WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTHEASTERN REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A RIDGE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ALLOWING FOR WEAK
NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA AT 500 HPA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS
RETREATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT S-SE
FLOW AT BOTH LOW AND MID LEVELS. WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT THE MID LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS THE WAA
INCREASES EVEN THOUGH THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR THE CHC OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY...MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN SOMEWHAT. HIGHS LOOK TO TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPS ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY
BE THINNEST AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE NEARBY WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY LOWER SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. IT STILL LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY...AND MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

ON MONDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF LULL...WITH NO
STRONG FORCING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...WE WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS HAVING WARMED
TO 10-13 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE WARMING
WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL STILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS AS THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO THE REGION. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO START THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS SHOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN BY LATER IN THE DAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH PERHAPS OUR
FIRST SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF CONVECTION BEFORE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE LEAD BY THE ECMWF
SUGGEST A STRONG WARM FRONT PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING WEDNESDAY.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY SIGNIFY A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS BUT THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.  IF ENOUGH
UPSTREAM INSTABILITY WERE TO BE ATTAINED...THIS COULD MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING FORECAST WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  THIS WAVE WILL AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT ITS
SURFACE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH DIFFER...THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES IN THE MODEL SIMULATION THAT WILL
DISRUPT THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.  EITHER WAY...THIS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
EPISODE IS EXPECTED AND WITH PROGGED SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
AND FORECAST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 80S.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE COLD FROPA OCCURS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER A COOLER
AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CANADA.  JUST HOW COOL REMAINS TO BE SEEN
AS THE ECMWF WANTS TO PLUNGE THOSE H850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WITH THE GFS
A BIT MORE MODIFIED WITH POSITIVE H850 TEMPS.  IF THE ECMWF WERE TO
VERIFY...THIS COULD SIGNIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ISSUES.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DISMAL
FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR
LEVELS. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SHOWER COVERAGE/TIMING. IN BETWEEN THESE SHOWERS ALL TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY AT MVFR LEVELS AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WITH VCSH PERSISTING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WHERE THE FLOW CAN BE CHANNELED.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4-8 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN TO 50-65 PERCENT TODAY WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 6-12 MPH TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND GREENS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 191510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1110 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALONG WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTHEASTERN REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A RIDGE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ALLOWING FOR WEAK
NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA AT 500 HPA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS
RETREATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT S-SE
FLOW AT BOTH LOW AND MID LEVELS. WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT THE MID LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS THE WAA
INCREASES EVEN THOUGH THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR THE CHC OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY...MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN SOMEWHAT. HIGHS LOOK TO TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPS ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY
BE THINNEST AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE NEARBY WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY LOWER SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. IT STILL LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY...AND MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

ON MONDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF LULL...WITH NO
STRONG FORCING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...WE WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS HAVING WARMED
TO 10-13 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE WARMING
WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL STILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS AS THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO THE REGION. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO START THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS SHOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN BY LATER IN THE DAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH PERHAPS OUR
FIRST SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF CONVECTION BEFORE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE LEAD BY THE ECMWF
SUGGEST A STRONG WARM FRONT PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING WEDNESDAY.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY SIGNIFY A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS BUT THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.  IF ENOUGH
UPSTREAM INSTABILITY WERE TO BE ATTAINED...THIS COULD MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING FORECAST WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  THIS WAVE WILL AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT ITS
SURFACE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH DIFFER...THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES IN THE MODEL SIMULATION THAT WILL
DISRUPT THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.  EITHER WAY...THIS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
EPISODE IS EXPECTED AND WITH PROGGED SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
AND FORECAST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 80S.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE COLD FROPA OCCURS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER A COOLER
AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CANADA.  JUST HOW COOL REMAINS TO BE SEEN
AS THE ECMWF WANTS TO PLUNGE THOSE H850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WITH THE GFS
A BIT MORE MODIFIED WITH POSITIVE H850 TEMPS.  IF THE ECMWF WERE TO
VERIFY...THIS COULD SIGNIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ISSUES.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PERSIST WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAVE A LIGHT S-SE FLOW OCCURRING IN BOTH LOW AND
MID LEVELS WHICH HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY. TONIGHT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL EITHER WEAKEN OR BE
EAST OF THE REGION AS WE REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NIGHT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRAS/SLIGHT CHC -TSRAS.
TUE-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN TO 50-65 PERCENT TODAY WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 6-12 MPH TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND GREENS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRY AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE BEFORE RETREATING BACK AS A WARM FRONT
ON WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 UPDATE...
MUCH OF THE SFC FOG AND STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF THIS MORNING SAVE
FOR EXTREME ERN NH WHERE A STRATUS DECK GRADUALLY DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...AS EXPECTED...SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT
ARE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW. CURRENTLY THEY ARE DRAPED FROM NRN
FRANKLIN CT MA SE TO W RI...WITH CT NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
OVERCAST. INTO THE AFTERNOON THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD BKN-OVC LOW
AND MID CLOUDS EVERYWHERE. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED BY ABOUT MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOW 70S
POSSIBLE IN ERN MA.  ADJUSTED TEMPS TOWARD THIS THINKING.

STILL THINK THAT GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO FAST IN TRYING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
WARM FRONT HAS ONLY MADE VERY SLIGHT ENE PROGRESSION OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING
BUT LOW CLOUD DECK OVER COASTAL ME/NH PUSHED BACK INTO
MANCHESTER...LAWRENCE AND BEVERLY. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT
IS ABOUT AS FAR S AS IT WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING.

STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS TO OUR SW AS ACTIVITY OVER
NJ IS PIVOTING OFFSHORE. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INSISTENT WE WILL
SEE DEVELOPMENT INTO HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BEFORE DAYBREAK.
RAP/HRRR BRING SHOWERS TO CT VALLEY BY 8 AM AND TO REST OF AREA
BEFORE NOON. NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR THAT TO OCCUR BASED UPON
RADAR MOSAIC SO WE CONTINUED WITH SLOWER TREND SHOWN BY 00Z NAM...
NAMELY ANY SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLOUD
OVER AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMEST
TEMPS ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA /UPPER 60S/ AND USED A NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND AS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FEW SHOWERS.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG AS MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA
WHERE WE EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE. MODELS DO SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER...AGAIN
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO S COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ON
S/SW WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG FORMATION.

ALTHOUGH FRONT REMAINS TO OUR N MON...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MEANS CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST WHERE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEPER
MARINE LAYER. MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS INTERIOR THROUGHOUT DAY.

EXPECT WARMER/MORE HUMID DAY BUT NOT QUITE SURE WE CAN REACH
LOWER 80S AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS. TONED BACK A BIT BY BLENDING
NAM MOS AND 2M TEMPERATURES WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 70S
EXCEPT 60S AROUND CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE HUMIDITY AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
  EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ON TUE
* WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WED AFTERNOON
  THRU AT LEAST THU NIGHT
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PAINT A CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE FOR
TUE THRU THU BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING AND
DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST A BACKDOOR INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ON TUE INTO WED
MORNING THRU ALL EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THUS FOR TUE WILL RELEGATE
CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST TO SW ZONES. THEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE PRIOR RUN ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON CHARACTER
OF EASTERN TROF THAT WILL FLUSH OUT THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED NORTHERN
STREAM TROF DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP A NOTABLE CHUNK OF
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE MAIN STREAM NORTHERN FLOW AND RESULTS IN THE
SPIN UP OF A SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WET DAY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI.

TUE-WED...WILL INDICATE SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD AND SW OF A EEN-ORH-EWB LINE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR AIR MASS TO EASE INTO OUR NE ZONES.

THE TREND FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO BRING A BACKDOOR
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUE LENDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TUE WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE E COAST. THUS FOR EASTERN MA
AND RI TUE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY.

WED...THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVANCES BACK NE AND SO DOES
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THU...RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST LIKELY WESTERN HALF OF
AREA GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI...HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY DUE TO MODEL
DISPARITY IN HANDLING THE CONFIGURATION OF THE EASTERN TROF
ENERGY. FOR NOW...PLAN TO HAVE SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST OVER THE SE ZONES...OR AT LEAST THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...TO
PERSIST TO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. IN ESSENCE AM LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED BY WPC. THE GFS HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTION AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS SUPPORTED BY
ITS ENSEMBLES SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. IF INDEED A
SURFACE LOW WERE TO DEVELOP AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WE COULD
SEE WINDS APPROACHING MARGINAL GALES ON THE WATER AND A RISK FOR
SOME COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE FRI EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH
IS QUITE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY TO BEGIN WITH. THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT.

SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DRY AIR MASS
DOMINATING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER PATCHES OF MORNING FOG DISAPPEAR.

AREA OF IFR CIGS DUE TO ST AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS FROM FOG NE
MA SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE BY AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS AOA 080 E AND AOA 035 W EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE.

S/SW GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO S
COAST TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE ALONG E MA COAST BUT IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BAF/BDL
WHICH SHIFTS TO RI/MA COASTS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS NEAR S COAST TONIGHT. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE IN W LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THIS EVENING IN THE E.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS EXIT BEFORE DAYBREAK...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/
THUNDER MAY REDEVELOP DURING DAY MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR
N. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING BEST CHANCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING FOG BANK UNTIL MID
MORNING...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THINK FOG WILL FLIRT WITH
AIRPORT FOR ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SW GRADIENT...ALBEIT
WEAK...HELPS LIFT IT OFFSHORE. NOT CONFIDENT SEA BREEZE WILL
OCCUR BUT IF IT DOES IT WOULD BE 16Z- 19Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFT ABOUT 19 OR 20Z AS SCT SHOWERS SATURATE LOWER PORTION OF
ATMOSPHERE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUE...SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CT
VALLEY...VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT
TSTMS.

THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS
TODAY. COULD SEE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.

INCREASING S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS TO
OUTER WATERS WHERE CURRENT SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MON. ADDED
RI/BLOCK IS SOUNDS TO SCA AS WELL...AND BUZZARDS BAY/VINEYARD
SOUND WHERE SW WINDS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES DURING TIMES OF
DEPARTING TIDE /HIGH TIDE 355 AM AND 437 PM MON AT NEW BEDFORD/.

SHOULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AND
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MON. PATCHY DENSE FOG PROBABLE
AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LEFT OVER SWELL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 7 FT LIKELY TUE...SUBSIDING
WED. BUILDING SEAS LIKELY THU AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU THU. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...JWD/THOMPSON
MARINE...JWD/THOMPSON