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000
FXUS61 KBOX 281200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO
RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...

UPDATED TEMPS AND DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. A LOT
OF VARIABILITY WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT WELL BELOW ZERO IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT RADIATED OUT QUITE AS WELL WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE LOWER TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT MORE
BEARABLE THAN OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO...WHILE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.  THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS WE ARE EXPECTING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IF THEY COME IN A BIT EARLIER THEN EXPECTED OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND AWAY
  FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ***

A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN OVERRUNNING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  A NICE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD SLUG OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO BACK
AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
     RESULTING IN THE RISK FOR SOME HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE WHICH WILL EXPLAIN MORE BELOW.

1} TIMING AND PTYPE:

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY MORNING.  MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
PICKUP IN INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/FORCING INCREASE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA
IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION.  SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO
THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND BEFORE RUSH HOUR
STARTS.

PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE ALL SNOW FOR A LOT OF THE REGION. IT BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA.  THE NAM
MODEL IS AN OUTLIER AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM
MID LEVEL AIR NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD CHANGE PTYPE TO RAIN FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS PTYPE SNOW EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.  SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
CHANGE OVER LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA.


2)SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES:

THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES...AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  THE NAM IS HEAVIER ON QPF
AND WE OPTED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.  EVEN THESE MODELS STILL
HAVE BETWEEN 0.40 TO 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM NEAR THE PIKE TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR A MORE BACKED LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  WITH PRETTY GOOD OMEGA IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...SNOWFALL RATIOS MAY BE BETTER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIOS.

WITH THAT SAID...FELT IT IS WORTH A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NEAR THE
PIKE TO AREAS INLAND FROM THE SOUTH COAST...WHERE PTYPE WILL
PROBABLY END UP AS MAINLY SNOW.  THIS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW.  WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE THE 6 TO
7 INCH AMOUNTS.  HOWEVER...WE ONLY NEED 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING TO ISSUE THE WATCH AND IT GIVES THE
NEXT SHIFT SOME MORE OPTIONS.

3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY:

HOW MUCH SNOW WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE WILL HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR
NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE GETS.  THE NAM MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AND HENCE HAS THE HIGHEST QPF...BUT DOES
INTRODUCE MORE PTYPE ISSUES. MEANWHILE...THE GGEM IS THE WEAKEST
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THE
REGION. CURRENTLY WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE...RESULTING IN 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF PIKE AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NAO/AO AND
THE PNA EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM NEGATIVE VALUES BACK TOWARD A
MORE NEUTRAL SOLUTION...THE COLD AIR AND LONGWAVE TROF LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE IN
THE LOW LVLS ON WED...WHEN A ROBUST SW LLJ WILL ALLOW LOW-MID LVL
TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO P-TYPE
ISSUES FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC REMAINS THE
MOST ROBUST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH HIGHER AMPLIFICATION
IN THE FLOW PATTERN THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. IT STARTS MUCH
COLDER...BUT ENDS MUCH WARMER. HOWEVER...DO NOTE THAT SOME OF THE
GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...WILL BE
USING THE ENSEMBLE BLEND AS A BASELINE AS THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
BOTH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE /AND ULTIMATELY LESS ROBUST WITH THE
THERMAL DIFFERENCES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
WILL USE THIS BLEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

MON...
MORNING SNOWS COME TO AN END EARLY ACROSS E MA...AND FLURRIES
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS AS DRY NW
FLOW MOVES IN. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND EVEN THROUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL BE MAKING IT INTO THE LOW-UPPER 30S...NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS STRUGGLING
INTO THE LOW 20S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT BOTH THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS PHASE IN SOME FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH THE FORMATION OF LOW PRES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT GIVEN DEEP SNOWPACK THE
LOW LVL FRONT MAY ACTUAL STALL NEAR THE S COAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OVER AS THE UPPER WARM FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS
PRESENTS A GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH STRONG 50-60 KT H92 LLJ
OUT OF THE SW. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM...IT ALSO CARRIES WITH IT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL

SO ALL IN ALL..PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE QUESTION WILL BE TYPE...ALL GUIDANCE BEGIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
MUCH MORE AND BETTER LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO THERE IS
THAT TO CONSIDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL NEED TO AT LEAST WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL BEFORE THE WARM AIR BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM S TO N THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF
STARTS THE COLDEST...IT ENDS AS THE WARMEST SOLUTION...BRINGING
THE H92 +8C LINE ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL MA. SO WE DO EXPECT A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A TIME GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. SOME AREAS
OF WRN MA...AND THE HILLS OF NRN CT MAY ACTUALLY STAY AS A MIX OF
SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MAYBE SOME SNOW GIVEN THAT THE SFC
WARM FRONT MAY STALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE IT
DOESN/T SWITCH TO RAIN WITH MELTING /BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/MELT IS
IN RI/CT AND PORTIONS OF MASS E OF I-495 AND S OF THE MASS PIKE/.
HEAVY RAIN A THREAT TOO GIVEN UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AND ROBUST
LLJ...SO WHERE MELTING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE OBSERVED...POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE SNOW CLOGS AREA DRAINS.

THIS HEAVY MIXED PRECIP EVENT COULD LINGER INTO THU...THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND SEVERAL ECENS/GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE
LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STALLS WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THU. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE
LESS QPF /SNOW POTENTIALLY/ ON THE BACK END. HOWEVER...BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING /ALTHOUGH WITH
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN
IS BY LATE WEEK. IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF DRY BUT COLD WX IS LIKELY
AS ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE EXITING MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
OR IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
RI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS. PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY FROM IFR/MVFR IN SNOWS AND LOW
CIGS...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30KT.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON TUE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY STARTS AS ALL SNOW...TRANSITIONS TO A
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON WED. SOME SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR
POTENTIALLY EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE WINDS SHIFT NW IN THE
AFTERNOON EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS 35-40KT. COLDER AIR TUE NIGHT
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OUT OF THE W-NW BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN TUE NIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS OUT OF THE S MAINLY AROUND 25-30 KT AT MOST. SEAS BUILD
12-15 FT BY DAYTIME ON WED ON SE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ009-011>013-015>019.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO
RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...

UPDATED TEMPS AND DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. A LOT
OF VARIABILITY WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT WELL BELOW ZERO IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT RADIATED OUT QUITE AS WELL WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE LOWER TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT MORE
BEARABLE THAN OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO...WHILE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.  THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS WE ARE EXPECTING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IF THEY COME IN A BIT EARLIER THEN EXPECTED OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND AWAY
  FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ***

A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN OVERRUNNING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  A NICE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD SLUG OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO BACK
AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
     RESULTING IN THE RISK FOR SOME HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE WHICH WILL EXPLAIN MORE BELOW.

1} TIMING AND PTYPE:

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY MORNING.  MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
PICKUP IN INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/FORCING INCREASE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA
IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION.  SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO
THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND BEFORE RUSH HOUR
STARTS.

PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE ALL SNOW FOR A LOT OF THE REGION. IT BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA.  THE NAM
MODEL IS AN OUTLIER AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM
MID LEVEL AIR NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD CHANGE PTYPE TO RAIN FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS PTYPE SNOW EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.  SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
CHANGE OVER LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA.


2)SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES:

THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES...AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  THE NAM IS HEAVIER ON QPF
AND WE OPTED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.  EVEN THESE MODELS STILL
HAVE BETWEEN 0.40 TO 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM NEAR THE PIKE TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR A MORE BACKED LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  WITH PRETTY GOOD OMEGA IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...SNOWFALL RATIOS MAY BE BETTER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIOS.

WITH THAT SAID...FELT IT IS WORTH A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NEAR THE
PIKE TO AREAS INLAND FROM THE SOUTH COAST...WHERE PTYPE WILL
PROBABLY END UP AS MAINLY SNOW.  THIS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW.  WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE THE 6 TO
7 INCH AMOUNTS.  HOWEVER...WE ONLY NEED 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING TO ISSUE THE WATCH AND IT GIVES THE
NEXT SHIFT SOME MORE OPTIONS.

3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY:

HOW MUCH SNOW WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE WILL HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR
NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE GETS.  THE NAM MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AND HENCE HAS THE HIGHEST QPF...BUT DOES
INTRODUCE MORE PTYPE ISSUES. MEANWHILE...THE GGEM IS THE WEAKEST
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THE
REGION. CURRENTLY WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE...RESULTING IN 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF PIKE AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NAO/AO AND
THE PNA EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM NEGATIVE VALUES BACK TOWARD A
MORE NEUTRAL SOLUTION...THE COLD AIR AND LONGWAVE TROF LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE IN
THE LOW LVLS ON WED...WHEN A ROBUST SW LLJ WILL ALLOW LOW-MID LVL
TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO P-TYPE
ISSUES FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC REMAINS THE
MOST ROBUST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH HIGHER AMPLIFICATION
IN THE FLOW PATTERN THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. IT STARTS MUCH
COLDER...BUT ENDS MUCH WARMER. HOWEVER...DO NOTE THAT SOME OF THE
GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...WILL BE
USING THE ENSEMBLE BLEND AS A BASELINE AS THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
BOTH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE /AND ULTIMATELY LESS ROBUST WITH THE
THERMAL DIFFERENCES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
WILL USE THIS BLEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

MON...
MORNING SNOWS COME TO AN END EARLY ACROSS E MA...AND FLURRIES
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS AS DRY NW
FLOW MOVES IN. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND EVEN THROUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL BE MAKING IT INTO THE LOW-UPPER 30S...NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS STRUGGLING
INTO THE LOW 20S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT BOTH THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS PHASE IN SOME FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH THE FORMATION OF LOW PRES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT GIVEN DEEP SNOWPACK THE
LOW LVL FRONT MAY ACTUAL STALL NEAR THE S COAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OVER AS THE UPPER WARM FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS
PRESENTS A GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH STRONG 50-60 KT H92 LLJ
OUT OF THE SW. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM...IT ALSO CARRIES WITH IT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL

SO ALL IN ALL..PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE QUESTION WILL BE TYPE...ALL GUIDANCE BEGIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
MUCH MORE AND BETTER LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO THERE IS
THAT TO CONSIDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL NEED TO AT LEAST WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL BEFORE THE WARM AIR BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM S TO N THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF
STARTS THE COLDEST...IT ENDS AS THE WARMEST SOLUTION...BRINGING
THE H92 +8C LINE ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL MA. SO WE DO EXPECT A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A TIME GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. SOME AREAS
OF WRN MA...AND THE HILLS OF NRN CT MAY ACTUALLY STAY AS A MIX OF
SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MAYBE SOME SNOW GIVEN THAT THE SFC
WARM FRONT MAY STALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE IT
DOESN/T SWITCH TO RAIN WITH MELTING /BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/MELT IS
IN RI/CT AND PORTIONS OF MASS E OF I-495 AND S OF THE MASS PIKE/.
HEAVY RAIN A THREAT TOO GIVEN UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AND ROBUST
LLJ...SO WHERE MELTING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE OBSERVED...POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE SNOW CLOGS AREA DRAINS.

THIS HEAVY MIXED PRECIP EVENT COULD LINGER INTO THU...THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND SEVERAL ECENS/GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE
LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STALLS WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THU. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE
LESS QPF /SNOW POTENTIALLY/ ON THE BACK END. HOWEVER...BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING /ALTHOUGH WITH
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN
IS BY LATE WEEK. IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF DRY BUT COLD WX IS LIKELY
AS ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE EXITING MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
OR IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
RI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS. PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY FROM IFR/MVFR IN SNOWS AND LOW
CIGS...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30KT.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON TUE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY STARTS AS ALL SNOW...TRANSITIONS TO A
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON WED. SOME SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR
POTENTIALLY EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE WINDS SHIFT NW IN THE
AFTERNOON EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS 35-40KT. COLDER AIR TUE NIGHT
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OUT OF THE W-NW BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN TUE NIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS OUT OF THE S MAINLY AROUND 25-30 KT AT MOST. SEAS BUILD
12-15 FT BY DAYTIME ON WED ON SE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ009-011>013-015>019.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO
RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...

UPDATED TEMPS AND DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. A LOT
OF VARIABILITY WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT WELL BELOW ZERO IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT RADIATED OUT QUITE AS WELL WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE LOWER TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT MORE
BEARABLE THAN OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO...WHILE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.  THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS WE ARE EXPECTING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IF THEY COME IN A BIT EARLIER THEN EXPECTED OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND AWAY
  FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ***

A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN OVERRUNNING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  A NICE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD SLUG OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO BACK
AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
     RESULTING IN THE RISK FOR SOME HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE WHICH WILL EXPLAIN MORE BELOW.

1} TIMING AND PTYPE:

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY MORNING.  MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
PICKUP IN INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/FORCING INCREASE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA
IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION.  SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO
THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND BEFORE RUSH HOUR
STARTS.

PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE ALL SNOW FOR A LOT OF THE REGION. IT BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA.  THE NAM
MODEL IS AN OUTLIER AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM
MID LEVEL AIR NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD CHANGE PTYPE TO RAIN FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS PTYPE SNOW EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.  SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
CHANGE OVER LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA.


2)SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES:

THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES...AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  THE NAM IS HEAVIER ON QPF
AND WE OPTED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.  EVEN THESE MODELS STILL
HAVE BETWEEN 0.40 TO 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM NEAR THE PIKE TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR A MORE BACKED LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  WITH PRETTY GOOD OMEGA IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...SNOWFALL RATIOS MAY BE BETTER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIOS.

WITH THAT SAID...FELT IT IS WORTH A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NEAR THE
PIKE TO AREAS INLAND FROM THE SOUTH COAST...WHERE PTYPE WILL
PROBABLY END UP AS MAINLY SNOW.  THIS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW.  WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE THE 6 TO
7 INCH AMOUNTS.  HOWEVER...WE ONLY NEED 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING TO ISSUE THE WATCH AND IT GIVES THE
NEXT SHIFT SOME MORE OPTIONS.

3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY:

HOW MUCH SNOW WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE WILL HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR
NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE GETS.  THE NAM MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AND HENCE HAS THE HIGHEST QPF...BUT DOES
INTRODUCE MORE PTYPE ISSUES. MEANWHILE...THE GGEM IS THE WEAKEST
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THE
REGION. CURRENTLY WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE...RESULTING IN 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF PIKE AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NAO/AO AND
THE PNA EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM NEGATIVE VALUES BACK TOWARD A
MORE NEUTRAL SOLUTION...THE COLD AIR AND LONGWAVE TROF LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE IN
THE LOW LVLS ON WED...WHEN A ROBUST SW LLJ WILL ALLOW LOW-MID LVL
TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO P-TYPE
ISSUES FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC REMAINS THE
MOST ROBUST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH HIGHER AMPLIFICATION
IN THE FLOW PATTERN THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. IT STARTS MUCH
COLDER...BUT ENDS MUCH WARMER. HOWEVER...DO NOTE THAT SOME OF THE
GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...WILL BE
USING THE ENSEMBLE BLEND AS A BASELINE AS THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
BOTH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE /AND ULTIMATELY LESS ROBUST WITH THE
THERMAL DIFFERENCES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
WILL USE THIS BLEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

MON...
MORNING SNOWS COME TO AN END EARLY ACROSS E MA...AND FLURRIES
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS AS DRY NW
FLOW MOVES IN. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND EVEN THROUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL BE MAKING IT INTO THE LOW-UPPER 30S...NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS STRUGGLING
INTO THE LOW 20S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT BOTH THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS PHASE IN SOME FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH THE FORMATION OF LOW PRES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT GIVEN DEEP SNOWPACK THE
LOW LVL FRONT MAY ACTUAL STALL NEAR THE S COAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OVER AS THE UPPER WARM FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS
PRESENTS A GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH STRONG 50-60 KT H92 LLJ
OUT OF THE SW. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM...IT ALSO CARRIES WITH IT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL

SO ALL IN ALL..PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE QUESTION WILL BE TYPE...ALL GUIDANCE BEGIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
MUCH MORE AND BETTER LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO THERE IS
THAT TO CONSIDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL NEED TO AT LEAST WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL BEFORE THE WARM AIR BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM S TO N THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF
STARTS THE COLDEST...IT ENDS AS THE WARMEST SOLUTION...BRINGING
THE H92 +8C LINE ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL MA. SO WE DO EXPECT A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A TIME GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. SOME AREAS
OF WRN MA...AND THE HILLS OF NRN CT MAY ACTUALLY STAY AS A MIX OF
SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MAYBE SOME SNOW GIVEN THAT THE SFC
WARM FRONT MAY STALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE IT
DOESN/T SWITCH TO RAIN WITH MELTING /BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/MELT IS
IN RI/CT AND PORTIONS OF MASS E OF I-495 AND S OF THE MASS PIKE/.
HEAVY RAIN A THREAT TOO GIVEN UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AND ROBUST
LLJ...SO WHERE MELTING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE OBSERVED...POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE SNOW CLOGS AREA DRAINS.

THIS HEAVY MIXED PRECIP EVENT COULD LINGER INTO THU...THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND SEVERAL ECENS/GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE
LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STALLS WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THU. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE
LESS QPF /SNOW POTENTIALLY/ ON THE BACK END. HOWEVER...BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING /ALTHOUGH WITH
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN
IS BY LATE WEEK. IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF DRY BUT COLD WX IS LIKELY
AS ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE EXITING MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
OR IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
RI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS. PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY FROM IFR/MVFR IN SNOWS AND LOW
CIGS...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30KT.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON TUE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY STARTS AS ALL SNOW...TRANSITIONS TO A
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON WED. SOME SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR
POTENTIALLY EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE WINDS SHIFT NW IN THE
AFTERNOON EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS 35-40KT. COLDER AIR TUE NIGHT
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OUT OF THE W-NW BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN TUE NIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS OUT OF THE S MAINLY AROUND 25-30 KT AT MOST. SEAS BUILD
12-15 FT BY DAYTIME ON WED ON SE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ009-011>013-015>019.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY


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000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO
RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT WELL BELOW ZERO IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT RADIATED OUT QUITE AS WELL WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE LOWER TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT MORE
BEARABLE THAN OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO...WHILE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.  THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS WE ARE EXPECTING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IF THEY COME IN A BIT EARLIER THEN EXPECTED OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND AWAY
  FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ***

A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN OVERRUNNING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  A NICE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD SLUG OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO BACK
AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
...RESULTING IN THE RISK FOR SOME HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE WHICH WILL EXPLAIN MORE BELOW.

1} TIMING AND PTYPE:

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY MORNING.  MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
PICKUP IN INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/FORCING INCREASE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA
IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION.  SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO
THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND BEFORE RUSH HOUR
STARTS.

PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE ALL SNOW FOR A LOT OF THE REGION. IT BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA.  THE NAM
MODEL IS AN OUTLIER AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM
MID LEVEL AIR NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD CHANGE PTYPE TO RAIN FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS PTYPE SNOW EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.  SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
CHANGE OVER LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA.


2)SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES:

THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES...AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  THE NAM IS HEAVIER ON QPF
AND WE OPTED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.  EVEN THESE MODELS STILL
HAVE BETWEEN 0.40 TO 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM NEAR THE PIKE TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR A MORE BACKED LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  WITH PRETTY GOOD OMEGA IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...SNOWFALL RATIOS MAY BE BETTER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIOS.

WITH THAT SAID...FELT IT IS WORTH A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NEAR THE
PIKE TO AREAS INLAND FROM THE SOUTH COAST...WHERE PTYPE WILL
PROBABLY END UP AS MAINLY SNOW.  THIS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW.  WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE THE 6 TO
7 INCH AMOUNTS.  HOWEVER...WE ONLY NEED 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING TO ISSUE THE WATCH AND IT GIVES THE
NEXT SHIFT SOME MORE OPTIONS.

3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY:

HOW MUCH SNOW WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE WILL HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR
NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE GETS.  THE NAM MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AND HENCE HAS THE HIGHEST QPF...BUT DOES
INTRODUCE MORE PTYPE ISSUES. MEANWHILE...THE GGEM IS THE WEAKEST
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THE
REGION. CURRENTLY WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE...RESULTING IN 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF PIKE AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NAO/AO AND
THE PNA EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM NEGATIVE VALUES BACK TOWARD A
MORE NEUTRAL SOLUTION...THE COLD AIR AND LONGWAVE TROF LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE IN
THE LOW LVLS ON WED...WHEN A ROBUST SW LLJ WILL ALLOW LOW-MID LVL
TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO P-TYPE
ISSUES FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC REMAINS THE
MOST ROBUST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH HIGHER AMPLIFICATION
IN THE FLOW PATTERN THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. IT STARTS MUCH
COLDER...BUT ENDS MUCH WARMER. HOWEVER...DO NOTE THAT SOME OF THE
GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...WILL BE
USING THE ENSEMBLE BLEND AS A BASELINE AS THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
BOTH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE /AND ULTIMATELY LESS ROBUST WITH THE
THERMAL DIFFERENCES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
WILL USE THIS BLEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

MON...
MORNING SNOWS COME TO AN END EARLY ACROSS E MA...AND FLURRIES
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS AS DRY NW
FLOW MOVES IN. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND EVEN THROUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL BE MAKING IT INTO THE LOW-UPPER 30S...NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS STRUGGLING
INTO THE LOW 20S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT BOTH THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS PHASE IN SOME FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH THE FORMATION OF LOW PRES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT GIVEN DEEP SNOWPACK THE
LOW LVL FRONT MAY ACTUAL STALL NEAR THE S COAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OVER AS THE UPPER WARM FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS
PRESENTS A GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH STRONG 50-60 KT H92 LLJ
OUT OF THE SW. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM...IT ALSO CARRIES WITH IT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL

SO ALL IN ALL..PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE QUESTION WILL BE TYPE...ALL GUIDANCE BEGIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
MUCH MORE AND BETTER LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO THERE IS
THAT TO CONSIDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL NEED TO AT LEAST WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL BEFORE THE WARM AIR BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM S TO N THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF
STARTS THE COLDEST...IT ENDS AS THE WARMEST SOLUTION...BRINGING
THE H92 +8C LINE ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL MA. SO WE DO EXPECT A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A TIME GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. SOME AREAS
OF WRN MA...AND THE HILLS OF NRN CT MAY ACTUALLY STAY AS A MIX OF
SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MAYBE SOME SNOW GIVEN THAT THE SFC
WARM FRONT MAY STALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE IT
DOESN/T SWITCH TO RAIN WITH MELTING /BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/MELT IS
IN RI/CT AND PORTIONS OF MASS E OF I-495 AND S OF THE MASS PIKE/.
HEAVY RAIN A THREAT TOO GIVEN UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AND ROBUST
LLJ...SO WHERE MELTING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE OBSERVED...POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE SNOW CLOGS AREA DRAINS.

THIS HEAVY MIXED PRECIP EVENT COULD LINGER INTO THU...THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND SEVERAL ECENS/GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE
LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STALLS WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THU. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE
LESS QPF /SNOW POTENTIALLY/ ON THE BACK END. HOWEVER...BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING /ALTHOUGH WITH
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN
IS BY LATE WEEK. IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF DRY BUT COLD WX IS LIKELY
AS ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE EXITING MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RI
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY FROM IFR/MVFR IN SNOWS AND LOW
CIGS...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30KT.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON TUE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY STARTS AS ALL SNOW...TRANSITIONS TO A
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON WED. SOME SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR
POTENTIALLY EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE WINDS SHIFT NW IN THE
AFTERNOON EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS 35-40KT. COLDER AIR TUE NIGHT
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OUT OF THE W-NW BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN TUE NIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS OUT OF THE S MAINLY AROUND 25-30 KT AT MOST. SEAS BUILD
12-15 FT BY DAYTIME ON WED ON SE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ009-011>013-015>019.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO
RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT WELL BELOW ZERO IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT RADIATED OUT QUITE AS WELL WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE LOWER TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT MORE
BEARABLE THAN OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO...WHILE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.  THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS WE ARE EXPECTING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IF THEY COME IN A BIT EARLIER THEN EXPECTED OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND AWAY
  FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ***

A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN OVERRUNNING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  A NICE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD SLUG OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO BACK
AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
...RESULTING IN THE RISK FOR SOME HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE WHICH WILL EXPLAIN MORE BELOW.

1} TIMING AND PTYPE:

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY MORNING.  MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
PICKUP IN INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/FORCING INCREASE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA
IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION.  SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO
THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND BEFORE RUSH HOUR
STARTS.

PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE ALL SNOW FOR A LOT OF THE REGION. IT BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA.  THE NAM
MODEL IS AN OUTLIER AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM
MID LEVEL AIR NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD CHANGE PTYPE TO RAIN FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS PTYPE SNOW EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.  SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
CHANGE OVER LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA.


2)SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES:

THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES...AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  THE NAM IS HEAVIER ON QPF
AND WE OPTED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.  EVEN THESE MODELS STILL
HAVE BETWEEN 0.40 TO 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM NEAR THE PIKE TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR A MORE BACKED LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  WITH PRETTY GOOD OMEGA IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...SNOWFALL RATIOS MAY BE BETTER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIOS.

WITH THAT SAID...FELT IT IS WORTH A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NEAR THE
PIKE TO AREAS INLAND FROM THE SOUTH COAST...WHERE PTYPE WILL
PROBABLY END UP AS MAINLY SNOW.  THIS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW.  WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE THE 6 TO
7 INCH AMOUNTS.  HOWEVER...WE ONLY NEED 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING TO ISSUE THE WATCH AND IT GIVES THE
NEXT SHIFT SOME MORE OPTIONS.

3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY:

HOW MUCH SNOW WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE WILL HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR
NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE GETS.  THE NAM MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AND HENCE HAS THE HIGHEST QPF...BUT DOES
INTRODUCE MORE PTYPE ISSUES. MEANWHILE...THE GGEM IS THE WEAKEST
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THE
REGION. CURRENTLY WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE...RESULTING IN 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF PIKE AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NAO/AO AND
THE PNA EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM NEGATIVE VALUES BACK TOWARD A
MORE NEUTRAL SOLUTION...THE COLD AIR AND LONGWAVE TROF LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE IN
THE LOW LVLS ON WED...WHEN A ROBUST SW LLJ WILL ALLOW LOW-MID LVL
TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO P-TYPE
ISSUES FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC REMAINS THE
MOST ROBUST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH HIGHER AMPLIFICATION
IN THE FLOW PATTERN THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. IT STARTS MUCH
COLDER...BUT ENDS MUCH WARMER. HOWEVER...DO NOTE THAT SOME OF THE
GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...WILL BE
USING THE ENSEMBLE BLEND AS A BASELINE AS THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
BOTH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE /AND ULTIMATELY LESS ROBUST WITH THE
THERMAL DIFFERENCES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
WILL USE THIS BLEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

MON...
MORNING SNOWS COME TO AN END EARLY ACROSS E MA...AND FLURRIES
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS AS DRY NW
FLOW MOVES IN. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND EVEN THROUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL BE MAKING IT INTO THE LOW-UPPER 30S...NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS STRUGGLING
INTO THE LOW 20S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT BOTH THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS PHASE IN SOME FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH THE FORMATION OF LOW PRES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT GIVEN DEEP SNOWPACK THE
LOW LVL FRONT MAY ACTUAL STALL NEAR THE S COAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OVER AS THE UPPER WARM FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS
PRESENTS A GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH STRONG 50-60 KT H92 LLJ
OUT OF THE SW. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM...IT ALSO CARRIES WITH IT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL

SO ALL IN ALL..PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE QUESTION WILL BE TYPE...ALL GUIDANCE BEGIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
MUCH MORE AND BETTER LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO THERE IS
THAT TO CONSIDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL NEED TO AT LEAST WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL BEFORE THE WARM AIR BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM S TO N THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF
STARTS THE COLDEST...IT ENDS AS THE WARMEST SOLUTION...BRINGING
THE H92 +8C LINE ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL MA. SO WE DO EXPECT A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A TIME GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. SOME AREAS
OF WRN MA...AND THE HILLS OF NRN CT MAY ACTUALLY STAY AS A MIX OF
SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MAYBE SOME SNOW GIVEN THAT THE SFC
WARM FRONT MAY STALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE IT
DOESN/T SWITCH TO RAIN WITH MELTING /BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/MELT IS
IN RI/CT AND PORTIONS OF MASS E OF I-495 AND S OF THE MASS PIKE/.
HEAVY RAIN A THREAT TOO GIVEN UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AND ROBUST
LLJ...SO WHERE MELTING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE OBSERVED...POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE SNOW CLOGS AREA DRAINS.

THIS HEAVY MIXED PRECIP EVENT COULD LINGER INTO THU...THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND SEVERAL ECENS/GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE
LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STALLS WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THU. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE
LESS QPF /SNOW POTENTIALLY/ ON THE BACK END. HOWEVER...BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING /ALTHOUGH WITH
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN
IS BY LATE WEEK. IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF DRY BUT COLD WX IS LIKELY
AS ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE EXITING MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RI
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY FROM IFR/MVFR IN SNOWS AND LOW
CIGS...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30KT.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON TUE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY STARTS AS ALL SNOW...TRANSITIONS TO A
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON WED. SOME SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR
POTENTIALLY EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE WINDS SHIFT NW IN THE
AFTERNOON EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS 35-40KT. COLDER AIR TUE NIGHT
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OUT OF THE W-NW BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN TUE NIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS OUT OF THE S MAINLY AROUND 25-30 KT AT MOST. SEAS BUILD
12-15 FT BY DAYTIME ON WED ON SE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ009-011>013-015>019.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO
RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT WELL BELOW ZERO IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT RADIATED OUT QUITE AS WELL WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE LOWER TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASING LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT MORE
BEARABLE THAN OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO...WHILE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.  THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS WE ARE EXPECTING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IF THEY COME IN A BIT EARLIER THEN EXPECTED OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND AWAY
  FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ***

A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN OVERRUNNING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  A NICE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD SLUG OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO BACK
AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
...RESULTING IN THE RISK FOR SOME HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE WHICH WILL EXPLAIN MORE BELOW.

1} TIMING AND PTYPE:

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY MORNING.  MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
PICKUP IN INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/FORCING INCREASE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA
IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION.  SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO
THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND BEFORE RUSH HOUR
STARTS.

PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE ALL SNOW FOR A LOT OF THE REGION. IT BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA.  THE NAM
MODEL IS AN OUTLIER AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM
MID LEVEL AIR NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD CHANGE PTYPE TO RAIN FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS PTYPE SNOW EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.  SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
CHANGE OVER LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA.


2)SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES:

THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES...AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  THE NAM IS HEAVIER ON QPF
AND WE OPTED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.  EVEN THESE MODELS STILL
HAVE BETWEEN 0.40 TO 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM NEAR THE PIKE TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR A MORE BACKED LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  WITH PRETTY GOOD OMEGA IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...SNOWFALL RATIOS MAY BE BETTER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIOS.

WITH THAT SAID...FELT IT IS WORTH A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NEAR THE
PIKE TO AREAS INLAND FROM THE SOUTH COAST...WHERE PTYPE WILL
PROBABLY END UP AS MAINLY SNOW.  THIS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW.  WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE THE 6 TO
7 INCH AMOUNTS.  HOWEVER...WE ONLY NEED 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING TO ISSUE THE WATCH AND IT GIVES THE
NEXT SHIFT SOME MORE OPTIONS.

3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY:

HOW MUCH SNOW WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE WILL HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR
NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE GETS.  THE NAM MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AND HENCE HAS THE HIGHEST QPF...BUT DOES
INTRODUCE MORE PTYPE ISSUES. MEANWHILE...THE GGEM IS THE WEAKEST
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THE
REGION. CURRENTLY WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE...RESULTING IN 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF PIKE AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NAO/AO AND
THE PNA EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM NEGATIVE VALUES BACK TOWARD A
MORE NEUTRAL SOLUTION...THE COLD AIR AND LONGWAVE TROF LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE IN
THE LOW LVLS ON WED...WHEN A ROBUST SW LLJ WILL ALLOW LOW-MID LVL
TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO P-TYPE
ISSUES FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC REMAINS THE
MOST ROBUST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH HIGHER AMPLIFICATION
IN THE FLOW PATTERN THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. IT STARTS MUCH
COLDER...BUT ENDS MUCH WARMER. HOWEVER...DO NOTE THAT SOME OF THE
GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...WILL BE
USING THE ENSEMBLE BLEND AS A BASELINE AS THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
BOTH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE /AND ULTIMATELY LESS ROBUST WITH THE
THERMAL DIFFERENCES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
WILL USE THIS BLEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

MON...
MORNING SNOWS COME TO AN END EARLY ACROSS E MA...AND FLURRIES
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS AS DRY NW
FLOW MOVES IN. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND EVEN THROUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL BE MAKING IT INTO THE LOW-UPPER 30S...NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS STRUGGLING
INTO THE LOW 20S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT BOTH THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS PHASE IN SOME FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH THE FORMATION OF LOW PRES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT GIVEN DEEP SNOWPACK THE
LOW LVL FRONT MAY ACTUAL STALL NEAR THE S COAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OVER AS THE UPPER WARM FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS
PRESENTS A GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH STRONG 50-60 KT H92 LLJ
OUT OF THE SW. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM...IT ALSO CARRIES WITH IT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL

SO ALL IN ALL..PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE QUESTION WILL BE TYPE...ALL GUIDANCE BEGIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
MUCH MORE AND BETTER LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO THERE IS
THAT TO CONSIDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL NEED TO AT LEAST WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL BEFORE THE WARM AIR BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM S TO N THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF
STARTS THE COLDEST...IT ENDS AS THE WARMEST SOLUTION...BRINGING
THE H92 +8C LINE ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL MA. SO WE DO EXPECT A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A TIME GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. SOME AREAS
OF WRN MA...AND THE HILLS OF NRN CT MAY ACTUALLY STAY AS A MIX OF
SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MAYBE SOME SNOW GIVEN THAT THE SFC
WARM FRONT MAY STALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE IT
DOESN/T SWITCH TO RAIN WITH MELTING /BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/MELT IS
IN RI/CT AND PORTIONS OF MASS E OF I-495 AND S OF THE MASS PIKE/.
HEAVY RAIN A THREAT TOO GIVEN UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AND ROBUST
LLJ...SO WHERE MELTING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE OBSERVED...POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE SNOW CLOGS AREA DRAINS.

THIS HEAVY MIXED PRECIP EVENT COULD LINGER INTO THU...THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND SEVERAL ECENS/GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE
LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STALLS WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THU. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE
LESS QPF /SNOW POTENTIALLY/ ON THE BACK END. HOWEVER...BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING /ALTHOUGH WITH
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN
IS BY LATE WEEK. IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF DRY BUT COLD WX IS LIKELY
AS ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE EXITING MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RI
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY FROM IFR/MVFR IN SNOWS AND LOW
CIGS...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30KT.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON TUE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY STARTS AS ALL SNOW...TRANSITIONS TO A
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON WED. SOME SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR
POTENTIALLY EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE WINDS SHIFT NW IN THE
AFTERNOON EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS 35-40KT. COLDER AIR TUE NIGHT
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OUT OF THE W-NW BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN TUE NIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS OUT OF THE S MAINLY AROUND 25-30 KT AT MOST. SEAS BUILD
12-15 FT BY DAYTIME ON WED ON SE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ009-011>013-015>019.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 280904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE...SOME
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE...SOME
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK WAS ALLOWING FOR AN
IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO...WHILE SOME OF THE MORE
URBANIZED AREAS WERE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AS OF 1 AM.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RI
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK WAS ALLOWING FOR AN
IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO...WHILE SOME OF THE MORE
URBANIZED AREAS WERE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AS OF 1 AM.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RI
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK WAS ALLOWING FOR AN
IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO...WHILE SOME OF THE MORE
URBANIZED AREAS WERE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AS OF 1 AM.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RI
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK WAS ALLOWING FOR AN
IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO...WHILE SOME OF THE MORE
URBANIZED AREAS WERE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AS OF 1 AM.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RI
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK WAS ALLOWING FOR AN
IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO...WHILE SOME OF THE MORE
URBANIZED AREAS WERE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AS OF 1 AM.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RI
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK WAS ALLOWING FOR AN
IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO...WHILE SOME OF THE MORE
URBANIZED AREAS WERE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AS OF 1 AM.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!  MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS SUN
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RI
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY....WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS PERSIST. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS PERSIST. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS PERSIST. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS PERSIST. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280241
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

940 PM UPDATE...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST IS RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK WILL
RESULT IN AN IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A WIDE RANGE IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5
AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!
MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL
SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...THEN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. EXPECTING 3
TO 6 INCHES AT AREA TERMINALS...LESS ON THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280241
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

940 PM UPDATE...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST IS RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK WILL
RESULT IN AN IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A WIDE RANGE IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5
AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!
MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL
SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...THEN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. EXPECTING 3
TO 6 INCHES AT AREA TERMINALS...LESS ON THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280241
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

940 PM UPDATE...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST IS RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK WILL
RESULT IN AN IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A WIDE RANGE IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5
AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!
MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL
SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...THEN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. EXPECTING 3
TO 6 INCHES AT AREA TERMINALS...LESS ON THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280241
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

940 PM UPDATE...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST IS RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK WILL
RESULT IN AN IDEAL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A WIDE RANGE IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5
AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORMAL COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS!
MEANWHILE...OTHER AREAS THAT TYPICALLY DO NOT RADIATE AS WELL WILL
SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...THEN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. EXPECTING 3
TO 6 INCHES AT AREA TERMINALS...LESS ON THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 272343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS. KTYX RADAR EVEN SUGGESTS SOME FLURRIES MAY BE
OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE WEST EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL FALL
BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND ESPECIALLY NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
631 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED T/TD GRIDS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...THEN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. EXPECTING 3
TO 6 INCHES AT AREA TERMINALS...LESS ON THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
631 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED T/TD GRIDS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...THEN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. EXPECTING 3
TO 6 INCHES AT AREA TERMINALS...LESS ON THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 272239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
539 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 272239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
539 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 272239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
539 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 272239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
539 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT
ABOVE WHAT WAS FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURES TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...THEN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. EXPECTING 3
TO 6 INCHES AT AREA TERMINALS...LESS ON THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT
ABOVE WHAT WAS FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURES TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  PLOWABLE SNOW LIKELY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...CLEARING MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH SNOW OR
   MIXED PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
*  COLD AND DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN RESULTING IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENG LATE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SOME HINT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COAST. GOOD OVERRUNNING SIGNATURE WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT PWATS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP INTO SNE SUN NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.25"-0.50"+ FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A
PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAX OMEGA NUDGING INTO -10C LAYER.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A GOOD ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
MAX SNOW ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BUT INLAND FROM
THE S COAST WHERE SLR MAY BE LOWER DUE TO BL WARMING. A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS N CT...N RI AND ADJACENT SE
MA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY  WINDS MON EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW ENG. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THROUGH THE
LAKES WITH NOT MUCH HINT OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR SO
AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT...BUT ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM TUE NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT ACCUM OF
SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE GOING TO RAIN WED.  GFS WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN TUE NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND HAVE
PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW EVERYWHERE TUE NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MIX/ICE OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...THEN
ALL RAIN WED. SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND OTHER
THAN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINS...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE OTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS.  GFS IS
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF WHICH SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN WITH POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL AFFECT FORECAST
POPS/TEMPS/PTYPE. A SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS WED NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...THEN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. EXPECTING 3
TO 6 INCHES AT AREA TERMINALS...LESS ON THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO ICE THEN RAIN...QUICKEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUN...THEN SW INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
SUN NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS AS HIGH PRES CRESTS
OVER THE WATERS.

LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
SCA THRESHOLDS. LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 272104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 272104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 272103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
310 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT
ABOVE WHAT WAS FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURES TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
310 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT
ABOVE WHAT WAS FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURES TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS SO AM ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS JUST HITTING THE LOW 20S NOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS JUST HITTING THE LOW 20S NOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS JUST HITTING THE LOW 20S NOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS JUST HITTING THE LOW 20S NOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS...
RESULTING IN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN
LOCATIONS AND 0 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. DESPITE A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL AID IN IT FEELING A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE DESPITE TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 271751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1016 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY
DRY DAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S...SO STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED THE LACK OF WIND AND
THE ADDITION OF SUN TODAY WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THAN SOME
OF THE PREVIOUS COLD DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.  SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SAT AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAPE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1016 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY
DRY DAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S...SO STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED THE LACK OF WIND AND
THE ADDITION OF SUN TODAY WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THAN SOME
OF THE PREVIOUS COLD DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.  SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SAT AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAPE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1016 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY
DRY DAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S...SO STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED THE LACK OF WIND AND
THE ADDITION OF SUN TODAY WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THAN SOME
OF THE PREVIOUS COLD DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.  SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SAT AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAPE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 271510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1009 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

THIS UPDATE HAS TRENDED THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO BE CLEAR. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19
DEGREES C PERSIST. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1009 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

THIS UPDATE HAS TRENDED THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO BE CLEAR. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19
DEGREES C PERSIST. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1009 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

THIS UPDATE HAS TRENDED THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO BE CLEAR. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19
DEGREES C PERSIST. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1009 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

THIS UPDATE HAS TRENDED THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO BE CLEAR. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19
DEGREES C PERSIST. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY BUT HIGH PRES AT THE SFC REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE...SO OTHER THAN A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS NEAR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...EXPECT A MAINLY
DRY DAY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S...SO STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED THE LACK OF WIND
TODAY WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THAN SOME OF THE PREVIOUS COLD
DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.  SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SAT AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAPE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY BUT HIGH PRES AT THE SFC REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE...SO OTHER THAN A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS NEAR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...EXPECT A MAINLY
DRY DAY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S...SO STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED THE LACK OF WIND
TODAY WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THAN SOME OF THE PREVIOUS COLD
DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.  SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SAT AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME BKN LOW END VFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAPE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

SKY COVER VARIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON MORNING TEMPS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND GLENS FALLS AREA IS NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS ARE GENERALLY -5
TO -20 F ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE HAVE BEEN
PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THESE AREAS. CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE ALBANY AND BENNINGTON AREAS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DESPITE THESE PATCHES OF MORNING CLOUDS...SKY COVER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

SKY COVER VARIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON MORNING TEMPS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND GLENS FALLS AREA IS NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS ARE GENERALLY -5
TO -20 F ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE HAVE BEEN
PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THESE AREAS. CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE ALBANY AND BENNINGTON AREAS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DESPITE THESE PATCHES OF MORNING CLOUDS...SKY COVER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

SKY COVER VARIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON MORNING TEMPS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND GLENS FALLS AREA IS NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS ARE GENERALLY -5
TO -20 F ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE HAVE BEEN
PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THESE AREAS. CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE ALBANY AND BENNINGTON AREAS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DESPITE THESE PATCHES OF MORNING CLOUDS...SKY COVER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
WITH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

SKY COVER VARIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON MORNING TEMPS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND GLENS FALLS AREA IS NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS ARE GENERALLY -5
TO -20 F ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE HAVE BEEN
PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THESE AREAS. CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE ALBANY AND BENNINGTON AREAS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DESPITE THESE PATCHES OF MORNING CLOUDS...SKY COVER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
WITH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 270959
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 459 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAINLY UPSTREAM OF THE REGION...THERE ARE A LOT
OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES FROM
TIME TO TIME EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS KEEPING THESE FLURRIES FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND VERY LIGHT
WHEN THEY DO OCCUR.

EVEN DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION THANKS TO THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...SO CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP THIS MORNING AND ANY
FLURRIES WILL END...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE
BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.  MOST AREAS WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS
LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
WITH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270900
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
335 AM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 20S...BUT RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THEN
SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE AND
FORCING IS EXTREMELY LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT
WE WILL SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN OF CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUNSHINE AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.  SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SAT AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270900
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
335 AM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 20S...BUT RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THEN
SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE AND
FORCING IS EXTREMELY LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT
WE WILL SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN OF CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUNSHINE AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.  SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SAT AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NAO/AO REMAINING PRIMARILY NEGATIVE. THE BIGGEST CHANCE IS IN
THE PNA WHICH LOOKS TO TREND NEGATIVE UNDER A NEGATIVE EPO.
THEREFORE..THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM DURING THE SNOW BLITZ PERIOD. AT ODDS PRIMARILY IS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THEIR MERGER /OR LACK THEREOF/ ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE TO WATCH ARRIVES VIA THE NRN
STREAM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MANIFESTING AS LOW PRES THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
MAY BE A RESULT OF PHASING OF THESE TWO STREAMS AS WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SFC AND LOW LVL FEATURES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS DOES INVOLVE THE SRN STREAM...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMING IN THE LOW-MID
LVLS...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND SOME AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FLOW POSSIBLE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXED P-TYPE
ISSUES. IN ANY CASE...A BLEND OF WARMER DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE COOLER MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECENS AND GEFS WILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL RANGE. WILL USE THIS BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
DRY WX PREVAILS AS 1030+ HPA HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW AND ABOVE ZERO UNDER THE WEAK WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODERATING TEMPS UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUN...BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES WILL PASS THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOTING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MID
LVL F-GEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ITSELF. THESE TWO SOURCES OF
LIFT LOOK TO ACT JUST BELOW /BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT WITHIN/ THE PEAK
DENDRITE ZONE AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE ALL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.2
INCHES TO ABOUT 0.5...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS ARE LIKELY. IT IS
LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATION WILL HAVE BEGUN BEFORE...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAST
MOVING EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NW. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE
STREAMS ALOFT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
PRES WILL MOVE OR WHETHER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM. ANY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST MID LVL WARMING WITH H85
TEMPS LIKELY EXCEEDING 0C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK...THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. IT COULD START AS SNOW THOUGH...AS EVEN THE
WARMEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
THE FIRST QPF ONSET. GIVEN THIS DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONNECTION
TO THE SRN STREAM...THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTS THAT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT MAINTAIN SNOW
LONGER...WITH SOME ICE ACCRETION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS STORM AS WE APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER IF A FULL CHANGE OVER IS ALLOWED /THE FURTHER SRN REACHES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS/.

LATE NEXT WEEK...
ONCE AGAIN IT/S DEPENDENT ON WHETHER EACH OF THE STREAMS PHASE.
IF THEY DO SO...IT/S POSSIBLE THE LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY LINGER INTO THU POTENTIALLY. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. CIGS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECTING 2-5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MON...20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW /MIXING WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST/. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

335 AM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 20S...BUT RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THEN
SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE AND
FORCING IS EXTREMELY LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT
WE WILL SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN OF CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUNSHINE AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.  SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SAT AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

335 AM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 20S...BUT RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THEN
SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD WAVES.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE AND
FORCING IS EXTREMELY LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT
WE WILL SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN OF CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUNSHINE AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.  SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SAT AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.  THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF
LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 270602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EST...SKIES ARE FAIRLY OVERCAST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME FLURRIES OCCURRING IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE FLURRIES ARE VERY LIGHT AND SEEM TO BE
DISSIPATING DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE. AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WON/T DROP
TOO QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
LOWS ZERO TO 15 F FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS... WITH LOWS -10 F TO
ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND SRN
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A
FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTERED OUT BY AROUND
SUNRISE HOWEVER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY
IN THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME MVFR AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STILL COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DOMINATE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK...AREAS THAT
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO WILL HAVE THEIR TEMPS
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  OTHER LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL SEE LOW TEMPS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WHILE
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STILL COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DOMINATE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK...AREAS THAT
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO WILL HAVE THEIR TEMPS
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  OTHER LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL SEE LOW TEMPS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WHILE
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 270602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EST...SKIES ARE FAIRLY OVERCAST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME FLURRIES OCCURRING IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE FLURRIES ARE VERY LIGHT AND SEEM TO BE
DISSIPATING DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE. AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WON/T DROP
TOO QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
LOWS ZERO TO 15 F FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS... WITH LOWS -10 F TO
ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND SRN
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A
FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTERED OUT BY AROUND
SUNRISE HOWEVER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY
IN THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME MVFR AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 270314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1014 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VALLEY AREAS
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. SOME FLURRIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA AND LAKE GEORGE REGIONS...AND
ALSO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE
CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH ANOTHER ONE
POISED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE IS
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS
THE SECOND ONE APPROACHES...CLOUDS WIL LIKELY THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN...AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
EXPAND A BIT MORE FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS
FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SCHOHARIE CO...WITH NEGLIGIBLE AMTS ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR
COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT
TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 270314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1014 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VALLEY AREAS
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. SOME FLURRIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA AND LAKE GEORGE REGIONS...AND
ALSO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE
CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH ANOTHER ONE
POISED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE IS
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS
THE SECOND ONE APPROACHES...CLOUDS WIL LIKELY THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN...AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
EXPAND A BIT MORE FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS
FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SCHOHARIE CO...WITH NEGLIGIBLE AMTS ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR
COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT
TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 270314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1014 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VALLEY AREAS
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. SOME FLURRIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA AND LAKE GEORGE REGIONS...AND
ALSO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE
CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH ANOTHER ONE
POISED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE IS
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS
THE SECOND ONE APPROACHES...CLOUDS WIL LIKELY THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN...AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
EXPAND A BIT MORE FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS
FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SCHOHARIE CO...WITH NEGLIGIBLE AMTS ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR
COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT
TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 270314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1014 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VALLEY AREAS
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. SOME FLURRIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA AND LAKE GEORGE REGIONS...AND
ALSO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE
CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH ANOTHER ONE
POISED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE IS
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS
THE SECOND ONE APPROACHES...CLOUDS WIL LIKELY THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN...AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
EXPAND A BIT MORE FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS
FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SCHOHARIE CO...WITH NEGLIGIBLE AMTS ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR
COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT
TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVERNIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THERE IS A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY BUT NOT EVEN WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED THE REGION
THIS EVENING.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.  BASED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE OVERNIGHT BUT MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME.
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...JUST A ONE OR TWO HOUR
WINDOW WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO
SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  MEANWHILE...AREAS THAT
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT AS WELL AS THE URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE LOWS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWD/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVERNIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THERE IS A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY BUT NOT EVEN WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED THE REGION
THIS EVENING.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.  BASED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE OVERNIGHT BUT MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME.
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...JUST A ONE OR TWO HOUR
WINDOW WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO
SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  MEANWHILE...AREAS THAT
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT AS WELL AS THE URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE LOWS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWD/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

915 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED THE REGION THIS
EVENING.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER
OR NOT WE SEE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.  BASED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE OVERNIGHT BUT MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME.
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...JUST A ONE OR TWO HOUR
WINDOW WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO
SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  MEANWHILE...AREAS THAT
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT AS WELL AS THE URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE LOWS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWD/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

915 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED THE REGION THIS
EVENING.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER
OR NOT WE SEE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.  BASED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE OVERNIGHT BUT MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME.
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...JUST A ONE OR TWO HOUR
WINDOW WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO
SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  MEANWHILE...AREAS THAT
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT AS WELL AS THE URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE LOWS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWD/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

915 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED THE REGION THIS
EVENING.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER
OR NOT WE SEE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.  BASED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE OVERNIGHT BUT MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME.
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...JUST A ONE OR TWO HOUR
WINDOW WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO
SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  MEANWHILE...AREAS THAT
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT AS WELL AS THE URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE LOWS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWD/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

915 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED THE REGION THIS
EVENING.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER
OR NOT WE SEE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.  BASED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE OVERNIGHT BUT MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME.
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...JUST A ONE OR TWO HOUR
WINDOW WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO
SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  MEANWHILE...AREAS THAT
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT AS WELL AS THE URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE LOWS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWD/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 270002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM EST...THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED NEAR THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL
MOVE FROM ERH OH/W-CNTRL PA TO W-CNTRL NY TONIGHT...AND PASSING
NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SOME CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED HERE
FOR GENERALLY A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION/SRN
VT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES SHOULD
STAY DRY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LOWS WILL BE ON THE FRIGID SIDE AGAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW VALUES IN THE
SRN DACKS. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT 5 MPH OR LESS TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR
COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT
TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 270002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM EST...THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED NEAR THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL
MOVE FROM ERH OH/W-CNTRL PA TO W-CNTRL NY TONIGHT...AND PASSING
NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SOME CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED HERE
FOR GENERALLY A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION/SRN
VT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES SHOULD
STAY DRY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LOWS WILL BE ON THE FRIGID SIDE AGAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW VALUES IN THE
SRN DACKS. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT 5 MPH OR LESS TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR
COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT
TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262356
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
656 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

450 PM UPDATE...

* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PLYMOUTH COUNTY COASTLINE
FROM ONSHORE FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS REST OF E MA
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

SOME QUESTION TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND
RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK
SOME CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262356
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
656 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

450 PM UPDATE...

* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PLYMOUTH COUNTY COASTLINE
FROM ONSHORE FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS REST OF E MA
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

SOME QUESTION TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND
RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK
SOME CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
450 PM UPDATE...

* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR E MA COAST EARLY
* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PLYMOUTH COUNTY COASTLINE
FROM ONSHORE FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS REST OF E MA
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

SOME QUESTION TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND
RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK
SOME CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS SE MA BEFORE 21Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W TO E. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
BECOME VFR THROUGH 00Z...EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 04Z ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF FLURRY BEFORE 23Z...
OTHERWISE VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
450 PM UPDATE...

* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR E MA COAST EARLY
* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PLYMOUTH COUNTY COASTLINE
FROM ONSHORE FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS REST OF E MA
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

SOME QUESTION TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND
RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK
SOME CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS SE MA BEFORE 21Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W TO E. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
BECOME VFR THROUGH 00Z...EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 04Z ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF FLURRY BEFORE 23Z...
OTHERWISE VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 262127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EST...THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED NEAR THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW
FLOW WILL MOVE FROM ERH OH/W-CNTRL PA TO W-CNTRL NY TONIGHT...AND
PASSING NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SOME CHC POPS WERE
INCLUDED HERE FOR GENERALLY A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/LAKE
GEORGE REGION/SRN VT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TRI CITIES SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LOWS WILL BE ON THE FRIGID SIDE AGAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW VALUES IN THE
SRN DACKS. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT 5 MPH OR LESS TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 262127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EST...THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED NEAR THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW
FLOW WILL MOVE FROM ERH OH/W-CNTRL PA TO W-CNTRL NY TONIGHT...AND
PASSING NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SOME CHC POPS WERE
INCLUDED HERE FOR GENERALLY A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/LAKE
GEORGE REGION/SRN VT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TRI CITIES SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LOWS WILL BE ON THE FRIGID SIDE AGAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW VALUES IN THE
SRN DACKS. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT 5 MPH OR LESS TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261948
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
248 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...

* LIGHT SNOW ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SE AND
SHOULD END ACROSS SE MA BY 4 OR 5 PM. SO FAR SEEING LOTS OF
REPORTS OF AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...MAINLY IN RI AND SE
MA. AS OF 230 PM RECEIVED REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM NANTUCKET. AS
N/NE FLOW PERSISTS WE MAY SEE FLURRIES LINGER NEAR E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE/ISLANDS.

MEANWHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM. SOME QUESTION
TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND RESULTS IN CLEARING
SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK SOME
CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS SE MA BEFORE 21Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W TO E. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
BECOME VFR THROUGH 00Z...EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 04Z ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF FLURRY BEFORE 23Z...
OTHERWISE VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261948
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
248 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...

* LIGHT SNOW ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SE AND
SHOULD END ACROSS SE MA BY 4 OR 5 PM. SO FAR SEEING LOTS OF
REPORTS OF AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...MAINLY IN RI AND SE
MA. AS OF 230 PM RECEIVED REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM NANTUCKET. AS
N/NE FLOW PERSISTS WE MAY SEE FLURRIES LINGER NEAR E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE/ISLANDS.

MEANWHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM. SOME QUESTION
TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND RESULTS IN CLEARING
SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK SOME
CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS SE MA BEFORE 21Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W TO E. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
BECOME VFR THROUGH 00Z...EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 04Z ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF FLURRY BEFORE 23Z...
OTHERWISE VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT IS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A HALF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT FROM
THE DEPARTING OCEANIC CYCLONE.

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND L20S
WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MTNS. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NY...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY WESTWARD. A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
HERE FOR THE LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT IS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A HALF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT FROM
THE DEPARTING OCEANIC CYCLONE.

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND L20S
WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MTNS. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NY...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY WESTWARD. A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
HERE FOR THE LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT IS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A HALF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT FROM
THE DEPARTING OCEANIC CYCLONE.

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND L20S
WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MTNS. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NY...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY WESTWARD. A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
HERE FOR THE LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261729
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1229 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA WILL BRING A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED SNOW
AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MANY PLACES EXPECTED TO GET A DUSTING OF SNOW.

STILL SEEING HIGHER RETURNS ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHERE AS MUCH AS A
COUPLE OF INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR HIGHEST TOTALS /2 TO 3 INCHES/ CONTINUES TO
BE ON CAPE COD...VINEYARD AND ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET BUT BANDED
NATURE OF SNOW WILL KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DESPITE
DECENT SNOW GROWTH SIGNATURE THERE. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT AS WELL ALONG PARTS OF E MA COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN TEENS/20S THROUGH AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
NEAR 30 ON OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY DUE TO VSBY...EXCEPT ACROSS RI/SE MA AND
ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z...BUT FLURRIES WILL
PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS SE MA UNTIL 03Z OR SO.

VFR LATER TONIGHT AND FRI WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. VFR FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN 18Z TAF...BUT NOT CONFIDENT LIGHT SNOW WILL
COMPLETELY END UNTIL 23Z. AIRPORT ACCUM UP TO 1 INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN 18Z TAF...BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 20Z.
AIRPORT ACCUM LESS THAN 1 INCH.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261729
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1229 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA WILL BRING A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED SNOW
AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MANY PLACES EXPECTED TO GET A DUSTING OF SNOW.

STILL SEEING HIGHER RETURNS ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHERE AS MUCH AS A
COUPLE OF INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR HIGHEST TOTALS /2 TO 3 INCHES/ CONTINUES TO
BE ON CAPE COD...VINEYARD AND ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET BUT BANDED
NATURE OF SNOW WILL KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DESPITE
DECENT SNOW GROWTH SIGNATURE THERE. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT AS WELL ALONG PARTS OF E MA COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN TEENS/20S THROUGH AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
NEAR 30 ON OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY DUE TO VSBY...EXCEPT ACROSS RI/SE MA AND
ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z...BUT FLURRIES WILL
PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS SE MA UNTIL 03Z OR SO.

VFR LATER TONIGHT AND FRI WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. VFR FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN 18Z TAF...BUT NOT CONFIDENT LIGHT SNOW WILL
COMPLETELY END UNTIL 23Z. AIRPORT ACCUM UP TO 1 INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN 18Z TAF...BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 20Z.
AIRPORT ACCUM LESS THAN 1 INCH.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261649
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1045 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE AS A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
JUST SOUTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE. THIS BAND APPEARS NOT TO BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD SO CONFINED CATEGORICAL POPS (75 PERIODS OF SNOW) TO THIS
AREA WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE...WITH
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.


THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AREAS OUTSIDE WHERE THE SNOW
WAS ACTUALLY FALLING. WE CONTINUE THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BRIEF IFR AT KPOU AS A
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FORMED THERE...BUT LOOKS TO BE
PULLING BACK SOUTH. SHOULD NOT LAST MUCH PAST NOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME PERIOD AND ALL OTHER
TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY 10 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS PF 1045 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE AS A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
JUST SOUTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE. THIS BAND APPEARS NOT TO BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD SO CONFINED CATEGORICAL POPS (75 PERIODS OF SNOW) TO THIS
AREA WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE...WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.

AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS
SUPPLIED CLOUDS. SNOW WAS NOW FALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AREAS BUT NONE FURTHER NORTH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AREAS OUTSIDE WHERE THE SNOW
WAS ACTUALLY FALLING. WE CONTINUE THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 261551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS PF 1045 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE AS A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
JUST SOUTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE. THIS BAND APPEARS NOT TO BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD SO CONFINED CATEGORICAL POPS (75 PERIODS OF SNOW) TO THIS
AREA WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE...WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.

AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS
SUPPLIED CLOUDS. SNOW WAS NOW FALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AREAS BUT NONE FURTHER NORTH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AREAS OUTSIDE WHERE THE SNOW
WAS ACTUALLY FALLING. WE CONTINUE THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS PF 1045 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE AS A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
JUST SOUTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE. THIS BAND APPEARS NOT TO BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD SO CONFINED CATEGORICAL POPS (75 PERIODS OF SNOW) TO THIS
AREA WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE...WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.

AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS
SUPPLIED CLOUDS. SNOW WAS NOW FALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AREAS BUT NONE FURTHER NORTH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AREAS OUTSIDE WHERE THE SNOW
WAS ACTUALLY FALLING. WE CONTINUE THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261509
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

10 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR...BUT STILL MOSTLY ALOFT
DUE TO PRESENCE OF VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS INDICATED
BY CHH/OKX SOUNDINGS. MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN WILL ERODE THIS
DRY LAYER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION BY MIDDAY FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND NEAR THE COAST.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE OVER CAPE COD AND POSSIBLY INTO SE PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES AT ACK WHERE DECENT OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WEST OF THE CANAL EXPECTING A
COATING TO AN INCH NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT NEAR 30 ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261509
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

10 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR...BUT STILL MOSTLY ALOFT
DUE TO PRESENCE OF VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS INDICATED
BY CHH/OKX SOUNDINGS. MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN WILL ERODE THIS
DRY LAYER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION BY MIDDAY FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND NEAR THE COAST.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE OVER CAPE COD AND POSSIBLY INTO SE PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES AT ACK WHERE DECENT OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WEST OF THE CANAL EXPECTING A
COATING TO AN INCH NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT NEAR 30 ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261509
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

10 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR...BUT STILL MOSTLY ALOFT
DUE TO PRESENCE OF VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS INDICATED
BY CHH/OKX SOUNDINGS. MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN WILL ERODE THIS
DRY LAYER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION BY MIDDAY FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND NEAR THE COAST.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE OVER CAPE COD AND POSSIBLY INTO SE PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES AT ACK WHERE DECENT OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WEST OF THE CANAL EXPECTING A
COATING TO AN INCH NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT NEAR 30 ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261451
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB
LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY
IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS SUPPLIED CLOUDS. RADARS INDICATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTH BUT SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO SNOW
FALLING UNTIL ONE GOES DOWN TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THERE IS JUST TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

THEREFORE...VERY FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE
HOURLY GRIDS...ADDED A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...COLD FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.


WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD/T BE SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS
IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 261451
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB
LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY
IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS SUPPLIED CLOUDS. RADARS INDICATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTH BUT SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO SNOW
FALLING UNTIL ONE GOES DOWN TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THERE IS JUST TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

THEREFORE...VERY FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE
HOURLY GRIDS...ADDED A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...COLD FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.


WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD/T BE SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS
IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261451
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB
LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY
IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS SUPPLIED CLOUDS. RADARS INDICATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTH BUT SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO SNOW
FALLING UNTIL ONE GOES DOWN TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THERE IS JUST TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

THEREFORE...VERY FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE
HOURLY GRIDS...ADDED A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...COLD FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.


WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD/T BE SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS
IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




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