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000
FXUS61 KBOX 232251
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
651 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE CAPE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TRENDED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THE HI-RES MODELS
WHICH ARE ON TRACK PER LATEST RADAR OBS. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS
AS SEVERAL SITES HAVE ALREADY REACHED 30KTS OR ABOVE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A LLJ OF 40KTS AT 850MB.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER. WE
USED A RANGE OF UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 45 KNOT GUSTS. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WTB



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000
FXUS61 KALY 232037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE
BERKSHIRES MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT WILL CLEAR OUT AS WE
GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO
INCREASING WITH PRESSURE CHANGES OF 3-4MB/6 HOURS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. WE/VE SEEN STRONGER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
SUSTAINED WIND MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT... CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT BUT WITH VALUES
AROUND 70 PCT LINGERING BELOW 850 MB. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK
CLOUD EDGE OVER ONTARIO WOULD BRING IT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND 1230-
1 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT.  WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER. WE
USED A RANGE OF UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS.  THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REACH THE CT VALLEY BY 1 AM...AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAWN. ONCE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO
INCREASING WITH PRESSURE CHANGES OF 3-4MB/6 HOURS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. WE/VE SEEN STRONGER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
SUSTAINED WIND MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT... CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT BUT WITH VALUES
AROUND 70 PCT LINGERING BELOW 850 MB. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK
CLOUD EDGE OVER ONTARIO WOULD BRING IT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND 1230-
1 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT.  WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER. WE
USED A RANGE OF UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS.  THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REACH THE CT VALLEY BY 1 AM...AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAWN. ONCE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 231719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
LOOSE IT GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL
BE THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RH VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 231701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231451
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1051 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER LOW FIRED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY THE CENTRAL HILLS AND EAST.
THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TOTAL-
TOTALS OF 50-52. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF LIKELY
SHOWERS/CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WE WOULD EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 25-30 MPH.

NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPS SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN. INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
TO 20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40
MPH EXPECTED. NON-WEATHER FACTORS FOR HEADLINES ARE STILL IN
QUESTION AND WILL BE EVALUATED/COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 231302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
902 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX
IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND
TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED IN
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
RADAR INDICATING SOME MODERATE BURSTS OF RAINFALL JUST WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AT THIS HOUR. WILL RAISE POPS TO
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE
UPPER LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY. WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE RANGE
AFTER 1 PM.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS...ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
REAL ACCUMULATIONS...MAYBE A COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
652 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE VERY VARIABLE
RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO TO 10 MILES. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-
MORNING. IN ADDITION....SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THE
UPPER LOW NEARS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO BOTH VISIBILITIES AND POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN ACCOMPANYING POTENT SHORTWAVE. TEMPS AT
500 MB COOL TO -26C UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR MOCLDY SKIES TODAY AND THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACTING ON THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DECENT
850-500 MB QG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND BEST
FORCING. TOTAL TOTALS SPIKE IN THE THE 50S SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM AND GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS SMALL HAIL IS A
POSSIBILITY.

2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD THUNDER
POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40 MPH
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 231037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 630 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE REGION AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW (20,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND) WAS MOVE JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF ALBANY. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY DAY/
END. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. IT WILL BE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE OVER THE ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS TO FALL AS SNOW...BUT LIKELY NOT
ACCUMULATION MUCH IF AT ALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KALY 230832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. OTHER
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS HERKIMER COUNTY.

THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER AIR LOW...DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE BROAD ASCENT
AND A COLD POOL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IN TURN WILL YIELD TO
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...BUT WITH
THE COLD POOL LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN VERMONT.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHOWER.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBOX 230747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN ACCOMPANYING POTENT SHORTWAVE. TEMPS AT
500 MB COOL TO -26C UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR MOCLDY SKIES TODAY AND THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACTING ON THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DECENT
850-500 MB QG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND BEST
FORCING. TOTAL TOTALS SPIKE IN THE THE 50S SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM AND GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS SMALL HAIL IS A
POSSIBILITY.

2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD THUNDER
POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40 MPH
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230553
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PARTIAL CLEARING HAS LED TO
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY STRATUS/FOG NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THAT
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 40S EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE COAST JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TIMING AND REMOVED ISOLD THUNDER AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO EASTERN PA.

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVALENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GUSTY...DRY WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESP
FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER IN ITS
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS PUTS IT RIGHT OVER SNE. TRENDED THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEPS THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MODERATE YET...WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM
AND BEYOND HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALSO BELIEVE THAT RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...JUST A LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND EXACT
LOCATION.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING LOW TO
THE EAST. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD A 850MB LLJ
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL
MIX UP TO 850MB ALLOWING FOR GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COULD
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF BOTH FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADV HEADLINES.
MORE DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY RADIATE OUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH
RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 30S WITH 40S IN THE METRO REGIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WET WEATHER. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING HOW MUCH...WHAT TIME AND WHERE THE PRECIP WILL FALL.
OVERALL FEEL THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAS THE BEST
SHOT IN PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO BELIEVE THIS EVENT WILL BE FAR FROM
A SOAKER AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN FACT QPF
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AROUND 0.25 INCHES. HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT FOR
NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING IN
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

TODAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CIGS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS TO
25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 34-50 KNOTS OVER
THE WATER ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN RESPONSE.
EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER YET SEAS WILL STILL
BE WILL SLOWLY RELAXING TO 5FT BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AT 850KTS. ANTICIPATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX UP
TO 850MB ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL WILL BRING DOWN GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS AS WELL. DEWPOINT
LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WITH THE
LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS RESULTED IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN
15-25 PERCENT.

WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 0.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ALSO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WHICH MAY NOT LET FUELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH PER DISCUSSION
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 230526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO
SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX. THURSDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KALY 230204
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ADJUSTING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE
NEAR TERM...AND THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME OTHER VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 230116
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
916 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
915 PM UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE COAST JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TIMING AND REMOVED ISOLD THUNDER AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO EASTERN PA.

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVALENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GUSTY...DRY WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESP
FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER IN ITS
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS PUTS IT RIGHT OVER SNE. TRENDED THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEPS THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MODERATE YET...WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM
AND BEYOND HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALSO BELIEVE THAT RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...JUST A LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND EXACT
LOCATION.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING LOW TO
THE EAST. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD A 850MB LLJ
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL
MIX UP TO 850MB ALLOWING FOR GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COULD
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF BOTH FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADV HEADLINES.
MORE DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY RADIATE OUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH
RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 30S WITH 40S IN THE METRO REGIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WET WEATHER. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING HOW MUCH...WHAT TIME AND WHERE THE PRECIP WILL FALL.
OVERALL FEEL THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAS THE BEST
SHOT IN PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO BELIEVE THIS EVENT WILL BE FAR FROM
A SOAKER AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN FACT QPF
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AROUND 0.25 INCHES. HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT FOR
NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING IN
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

915 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS. LOW CHANCE OF 35
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 34-50 KNOTS OVER
THE WATER ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN RESPONSE.
EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER YET SEAS WILL STILL
BE WILL SLOWLY RELAXING TO 5FT BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AT 850KTS. ANTICIPATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX UP
TO 850MB ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL WILL BRING DOWN GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS AS WELL. DEWPOINT
LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WITH THE
LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS RESULTED IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN
15-25 PERCENT.

WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 0.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ALSO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WHICH MAY NOT LET FUELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH PER DISCUSSION
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 222323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LARGER AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE WEST COULD STILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 222305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HAVE ADJUSTED
PRECIP TIMING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. COLD FRONT IS STILL
POSITION OUT WEST ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. INITIAL
LINE OF PRECIP ACROSS WORCESTER AND TOLLAND CO IS STRUGGLING
MOVING EASTWARDS AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD IS OVER 20 DEGREES.
EXPECT EITHER VIRGA OR JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THIS LINE.
OTHERWISE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN MA. LOW PROBABILITY THAT THUNDER
MAY OCCUR BUT STILL CANT RULE IT OUT...THEREFORE JUST MENTIONED
ISOLATED CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVILENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GUSTY...DRY WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESP
FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER IN ITS
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS PUTS IT RIGHT OVER SNE. TRENDED THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEPS THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MODERATE YET...WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM
AND BEYOND HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALSO BELIEVE THAT RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...JUST A LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND EXACT
LOCATION.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING LOW TO
THE EAST. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD A 850MB LLJ
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL
MIX UP TO 850MB ALLOWING FOR GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COULD
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF BOTH FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADV HEADLINES.
MORE DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY RADIATE OUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH
RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 30S WITH 40S IN THE METRO REGIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WET WEATHER. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING HOW MUCH...WHAT TIME AND WHERE THE PRECIP WILL FALL.
OVERALL FEEL THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAS THE BEST
SHOT IN PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO BELIEVE THIS EVENT WILL BE FAR FROM
A SOAKER AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN FACT QPF
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AROUND 0.25 INCHES. HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT FOR
NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING IN
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN NY SHOW THAT WHERE CONDITIONS
ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH MVFR IN BOTH VSBY AND CIGS. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT PATH WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING ANY HEAVY
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM LEADING THE WINDSHIFT BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS. LOW
CHANCE OF 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 34-50 KNOTS OVER
THE WATER ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN RESPONSE.
EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER YET SEAS WILL STILL
BE WILL SLOWLY RELAXING TO 5FT BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AT 850KTS. ANTICIPATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX UP
TO 850MB ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL WILL BRING DOWN GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS AS WELL. DEWPOINT
LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WITH THE
LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS RESULTED IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN
15-25 PERCENT.

WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 0.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ALSO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WHICH MAY NOT LET FUELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH PER DISCUSSION
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 222112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
NYS...ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. A BAND
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS
FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WET BULB COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO FALL BACK THROUGH
THE 60S...AND INTO THE 50S WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

WE EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE SWEEPING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 9
PM. IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 530 PM...INTO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL REGION...AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
BETWEEN 530 PM AND 7 PM...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT...WESTERN MA...THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM. THERE
HAVE BEEN NO LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED UPSTREAM...AND GIVEN VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS
EVENING.

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY
23/01Z-02Z...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A STRATO-CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET IS FORECAST FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 222009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS THICKENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS IN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO THAT ECHOES ON
RADAR SHOULD REPRESENT VIRGA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS BRINGING MEASUREABLE RAIN. AMOUNTS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES...LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WE WILL GO WITH
THE LOWER QPF WITH THIS FORECAST. NOTE THAT THE TOTAL-TOTALS
PARMETER IS FORECAST IN THE LOW 50S DURING FROPA. WE WILL INCLUDE
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVILENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* GUSTY...DRY WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESP
FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER IN ITS
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS PUTS IT RIGHT OVER SNE. TRENDED THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEPS THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MODERATE YET...WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM
AND BEYOND HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALSO BELIEVE THAT RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...JUST A LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND EXACT
LOCATION.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING LOW TO
THE EAST. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD A 850MB LLJ
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL
MIX UP TO 850MB ALLOWING FOR GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COULD
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF BOTH FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADV HEADLINES.
MORE DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY RADIATE OUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH
RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 30S WITH 40S IN THE METRO REGIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WET WEATHER. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING HOW MUCH...WHAT TIME AND WHERE THE PRECIP WILL FALL.
OVERALL FEEL THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAS THE BEST
SHOT IN PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO BELIEVE THIS EVENT WILL BE FAR FROM
A SOAKER AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN FACT QPF
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AROUND 0.25 INCHES. HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT FOR
NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING IN
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR MOST OF THE WAY. LINE OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK
MOVES EAST. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL NY SHOW THAT WHERE
CONDITIONS DO DROP BELOW VFR...THEY ARE MOSTLY MVFR. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT PATH WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING ANY SHOWERS
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LEADING THE WINDSHIFT BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS. LOW
CHANCE OF 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 34-50 KNOTS OVER
THE WATER ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN RESPONSE.
EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER YET SEAS WILL STILL
BE WILL SLOWLY RELAXING TO 5FT BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AT 850KTS. ANTICIPATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX UP
TO 850MB ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL WILL BRING DOWN GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS AS WELL. DEWPOINT
LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WITH THE
LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS RESULTED IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN
15-25 PERCENT.

WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 0.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ALSO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WHICH MAY NOT LET FUELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH PER DISCUSSION
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS THICKENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS IN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO THAT ECHOES ON
RADAR SHOULD REPRESENT VIRGA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS BRINGING MEASUREABLE RAIN. AMOUNTS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES...LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WE WILL GO WITH
THE LOWER QPF WITH THIS FORECAST. NOTE THAT THE TOTAL-TOTALS
PARMETER IS FORECAST IN THE LOW 50S DURING FROPA. WE WILL INCLUDE
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVILENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR MOST OF THE WAY. LINE OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK
MOVES EAST. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL NY SHOW THAT WHERE
CONDITIONS DO DROP BELOW VFR...THEY ARE MOSTLY MVFR. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT PATH WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING ANY SHOWERS
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LEADING THE WINDSHIFT BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS. LOW
CHANCE OF 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS.
GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN STORM PULLS EAST
INTO THE MARITIMES. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 221759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT...SHOWERS STILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SOLID RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE
ECHOES FARTHER EAST HAVE ERODES DUE TO DRY WEDGE IN LOW LEVELS. COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND ADVANCING EASTWARD. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS
SHOULD START REACHING THE GROUND TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. DELAYED TIMING OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RAISED TEMPS IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY THICKENED.

HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING A POSSIBLE LINE OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LIKELY TIED TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING DUE TO WET
BULB EFFECTS ALREADY TAKING PLACE FARTHER WEST WHERE SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL...ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING EXPECTED FARTHER EAST LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY
23/01Z-02Z...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A STRATO-CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET IS FORECAST FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED AFTN AND NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
BREEZY.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 221758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
158 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARRIVES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO THAT
ECHOES ON RADAR SHOULD REPRESENT VIRGA. AFTER 19Z MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS APPROACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL REACH THE CT
VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE IN.

MORNING RAOBS SHOW SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. BASED ON 10 AM TEMPS...MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN COASTAL BOSTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS EVENING ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

MOST OF SHOWERS OCCUR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING INTO LOWER
50S AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE
0.25 TO PERHAPS 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WITH LOWS HOLDING IN 40S.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR LATE APRIL AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WINTRY-LOOKING WRAP AROUND PATTERN ON NW SIDE OF DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. 00Z NAM TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER S THAN 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. PREFER MORE NORTHERN TRACK
WHICH FOCUSES RAINFALL ON E MA/S NH WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO S
COASTAL AREAS BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN DURING AFTERNOON WITH
DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROUGH.

SHOULD BECOME WINDY WED AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPENING
MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN DAY.

LEANED MORE TOWARD GFS MOS GIVEN ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SYSTEM.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND COUPLED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR MOST OF THE WAY. LINE OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK
MOVES EAST. THESE COULD REACH THE CT VALLEY 21-22Z/CENTRAL HILLS
22-23Z/COASTAL PLAIN 23Z-00Z.

TONIGHT...OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL NY SHOW THAT WHERE
CONDITIONS DO DROP BELOW VFR...THEY ARE MOSTLY MVFR. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT PATH WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING ANY SHOWERS
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LEADING THE WINDSHIFT BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. POTENTIAL PROBLEM IN THE
FORECAST...NO MVFR CIGS DURING THE SHOWERS. /TOO MUCH GRID EDITING
NEEDED ON OTHER CATEGORIES AND SO WE RAN OUT OF TIME TO COVER THAT
BEFORE 18Z TRANSMISSION./

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS.
GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT
GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25KT. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD HOWEVER AND
SHOULD REACH 5 FT ON WATERS NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER...WHERE WE WILL
HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

S FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ON S
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO N/NW LATE...AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE WED WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE IN DAY NEAR SHORE...
INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY BEFORE WINDS POSSIBLY
SUBSIDE WED EVENING FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN
STORM PULLS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.  A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF CT RIVER NEAR
MIDDLE HADDAM. FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG/JWD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KALY 221749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT...SHOWERS STILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SOLID RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE
ECHOES FARTHER EAST HAVE ERODES DUE TO DRY WEDGE IN LOW LEVELS. COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND ADVANCING EASTWARD. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS
SHOULD START REACHING THE GROUND TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. DELAYED TIMING OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RAISED TEMPS IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY THICKENED.

HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING A POSSIBLE LINE OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LIKELY TIED TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING DUE TO WET
BULB EFFECTS ALREADY TAKING PLACE FARTHER WEST WHERE SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL...ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING EXPECTED FARTHER EAST LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 221425
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1025 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARRIVES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO THAT
ECHOES ON RADAR SHOULD REPRESENT VIRGA. AFTER 19Z MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS APPROACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL REACH THE CT
VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE IN.

MORNING RAOBS SHOW SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. BASED ON 10 AM TEMPS...MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN COASTAL BOSTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS EVENING ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

MOST OF SHOWERS OCCUR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING INTO LOWER
50S AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE
0.25 TO PERHAPS 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WITH LOWS HOLDING IN 40S.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR LATE APRIL AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WINTRY-LOOKING WRAP AROUND PATTERN ON NW SIDE OF DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. 00Z NAM TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER S THAN 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. PREFER MORE NORTHERN TRACK
WHICH FOCUSES RAINFALL ON E MA/S NH WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO S
COASTAL AREAS BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN DURING AFTERNOON WITH
DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROUGH.

SHOULD BECOME WINDY WED AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPENING
MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN DAY.

LEANED MORE TOWARD GFS MOS GIVEN ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SYSTEM.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND COUPLED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS AOA 120 THIS AFTERNOON WITH S/SW WINDS AND NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED ALONG E MA COAST. LIFR EXPECTED AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS WED MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN EASTERN MA
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR. STRONG
AND GUSTY NW WINDS. GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS.
LOW PROBABILITY OF GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT
GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25KT. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD HOWEVER AND
SHOULD REACH 5 FT ON WATERS NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER...WHERE WE WILL
HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

S FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ON S
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO N/NW LATE...AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE WED WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE IN DAY NEAR SHORE...
INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY BEFORE WINDS POSSIBLY
SUBSIDE WED EVENING FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN
STORM PULLS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.  A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF CT RIVER NEAR
MIDDLE HADDAM. FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...WTB/RLG/JWD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KALY 221341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR CONTINUES TO PICK UP RETURNS
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE AND WERE NOT CHANGED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM
















000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR WAS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS
WORKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY. MIGHT JUST BE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...OR
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. UPSTREAM OBS REMAIN DRY UNTIL ONE GOES BACK
TOWARD ROCHESTER NY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED AROUND 50 TO 55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH. (NOTE GLENS FALLS FOR A CHANGE WAS ONE OF THE MILDEST
PLACES AT 56!) OTHER PLACES WERE IN THE 45-50 RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM













000
FXUS61 KBOX 221051
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
651 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARRIVES LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

340 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN WAY OF FOG/LOW CLOUD FORMATION WHICH
SHOULD BE RULE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH S/SW FLOW IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT. MODELS SIMILAR ON TIMING...BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED ON 21Z/21
SREF FOR TIMING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH 00Z NAM/GFS COMPROMISE.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN MERRIMACK AND CT VALLEYS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG S COAST. USED
BLEND OF GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS EVENING ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

MOST OF SHOWERS OCCUR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING INTO LOWER
50S AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE
0.25 TO PERHAPS 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WITH LOWS HOLDING IN 40S.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR LATE APRIL AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WINTRY-LOOKING WRAP AROUND PATTERN ON NW SIDE OF DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. 00Z NAM TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER S THAN 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. PREFER MORE NORTHERN TRACK
WHICH FOCUSES RAINFALL ON E MA/S NH WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO S
COASTAL AREAS BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN DURING AFTERNOON WITH
DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROUGH.

SHOULD BECOME WINDY WED AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPENING
MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN DAY.

LEANED MORE TOWARD GFS MOS GIVEN ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SYSTEM.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND COUPLED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS AOA 120 TODAY WITH S/SW WINDS AND NO EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED ALONG E MA COAST. LIFR EXPECTED AROUND CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS...PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS WED MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN EASTERN MA
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR. STRONG
AND GUSTY NW WINDS. GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS.
LOW PROBABILITY OF GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT GUSTS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 25KT. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD HOWEVER AND SHOULD REACH 5
FT ON WATERS NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER...WHERE WE WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

S FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ON S
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO N/NW LATE...AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE WED WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE IN DAY NEAR SHORE...
INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY BEFORE WINDS POSSIBLY
SUBSIDE WED EVENING FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN
STORM PULLS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.  A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF CT RIVER NEAR
MIDDLE HADDAM. FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO
     MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...WTB/RLG/JWD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR WAS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS
WORKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY. MIGHT JUST BE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...OR
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. UPSTREAM OBS REMAIN DRY UNTIL ONE GOES BACK
TOWARD ROCHESTER NY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED AROUND 50 TO 55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH. (NOTE GLENS FALLS FOR A CHANGE WAS ONE OF THE MILDEST
PLACES AT 56!) OTHER PLACES WERE IN THE 45-50 RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM










000
FXUS61 KALY 220831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATING A FEW MORE POSSIBLE SPRINKLES
OVER EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST CASES...STILL IN THE 50S AT
THE HOUR! SOME AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE 40S DUE TO A MORE MARINE AIRMASS.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY (OTHER THAN A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS). TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...45 TO AROUND 50 CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND EVEN POINTS NORTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS MIDDAY...AND
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AIR HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY DRY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD
WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. FURTHER SOUTH
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE 40S AND EVEN NEAR 50. THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE AIR WILL SHIPPED IN THIS MORNING...SENDING PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD
FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM MODELS
INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION IS
REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL DISCOUNT
THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS ON FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 220740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARRIVES LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
340 AM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH INTERIOR...WHICH IS ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST GIVEN DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN WAY OF FOG/LOW CLOUD FORMATION WHICH
SHOULD BE RULE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH S/SW FLOW IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT. MODELS SIMILAR ON TIMING...BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED ON 21Z/21
SREF FOR TIMING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH 00Z NAM/GFS COMPROMISE.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN MERRIMACK AND CT VALLEYS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG S COAST. USED
BLEND OF GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS EVENING ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

MOST OF SHOWERS OCCUR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING INTO LOWER
50S AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE
0.25 TO PERHAPS 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WITH LOWS HOLDING IN 40S.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR LATE APRIL AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WINTRY-LOOKING WRAPAROUND PATTERN ON NW SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. 00Z NAM TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER S THAN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. PREFER MORE NORTHERN TRACK WHICH FOCUSES
RAINFALL ON E MA/S NH WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO S COASTAL AREAS
BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN DURING AFTERNOON WITH DEPARTURE OF UPPER
TROUGH.

SHOULD BECOME WINDY WED AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPENING
MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN DAY.

LEANED MORE TOWARD GFS MOS GIVEN ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SYSTEM.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND COUPLED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS AOA 120 TODAY WITH S/SW WINDS AND NO EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED ALONG E MA COAST. LIFR EXPECTED AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS WED MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN EASTERN MA
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR. STRONG
AND GUSTY NW WINDS. GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS.
LOW PROBABILITY OF GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT GUSTS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 25KT. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD HOWEVER AND SHOULD REACH 5
FT ON WATERS NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER...WHERE WE WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

S FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ON S
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO N/NW LATE...AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE WED WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE IN DAY NEAR SHORE...
INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY BEFORE WINDS POSSIBLY
SUBSIDE WED EVENING FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN
STORM PULLS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.  A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF CT RIVER NEAR
MIDDLE HADDAM. FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO
     MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD
HYDROLOGY...JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 220536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...FOR THIS UPDATE NEEDED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY NOT
FALLEN MUCH AT ALL. THIS WAS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS REMAINDER VERY LOW.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES) HAVE SKIMMED OUR NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THESE WERE MOVING
AWAY...AND THERE WERE NO MORE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.

TRIMMED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREDIBLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND THE FACT THAT LATEST RUC INDICATED NO SHOWERS
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL...HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LOCALLY AROUND 50 AT ALBANY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY OVERNT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM













000
FXUS61 KBOX 220535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
135 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...AND
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BRISK
AND COOLER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ON AND OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
135 AM UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOWER CLOUDS
AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. DESPITE LIGHT S FLOW AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MORE FROM
FORMING THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FORECAST LOWS IN UPPER 30S/40S ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING THE FRONT BRINGS INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO WE EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES LOW MOST OF THE DAY.

MODEL QPF REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH 18Z AND THEN MOVES INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW
PCPN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. JET PLACEMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR UPPER
VENTING LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH PLACEMENT OVER
NY/PA ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE. WE WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF ADVERTISE TOTALS NEAR 50 TUESDAY NIGHT. GGEM
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM...THE GFS JUST
BELOW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
EMBEDDED TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS WITH THE
SHOWERS.

MIXING PROFILES FAVOR MIXING TO 950 MB BUT THESE ARE FREQUENTLY AN
UNDERESTIMATE. USING 925 MB TEMPS...MAX SFC TEMPS SHOULD REACH
65-70...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP
A BLANKET OVER THE AIRMASS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER
VALUES ADVECT IN. WE FAVORED MINS IN THE 40S WITH COLDEST VALUES
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY
 * BREEZY AND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
 * RISK FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT

DETAILS...

WED...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY IN EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER
TROF CLOSES OFF.  CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH H850 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  NOT SURE IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS POINT WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME DECOUPLING
MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT BUT THINK EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN AND
COASTAL PLAIN MAY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THU...WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS IN THE
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRI...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS REACHING 60 TO 65
     EXCEPT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 50S ALONG COASTAL AREAS. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EVOLVES IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/ AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT.

SAT...UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE OCCLUDED OR COLD FRONT MAY
CROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES.  AT THIS TIME MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
IS EXPECTED...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  THIS IS A CONSENSUS OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY.

SUN AND MON...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.  GFS INDICATES A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
DRIFTING TO THE VICINITY OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROMPT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. HOWEVER ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...
PUSHING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AND EAST DURING SUN/MON...AND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME. AT
THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE OVERALL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR MONDAY IS FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS AOA 120 TODAY WITH S/SW WINDS AND NO EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED ALONG E MA COAST. LIFR EXPECTED AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS WED MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN EASTERN MA
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR. MODERATE CHANCE OF GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WITH VALUES REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BUILD TO AROUND 15
KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. SEAS ALSO BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH 5 FEET ON PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS TOWARD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. VSBYS WILL LOWER
IN SHOWERS...REACHING 1-3 MILES AT TIMES. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS MAY REACH 5 FEET BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...CONTINUE THINKING THAT NW WINDS LIKELY INCREASE WELL
INTO SCA CRITERIA ALL COASTAL WATERS DURING WED. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE WED AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE...AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BEGIN
TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR THU NIGHT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LINGER ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SAT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEAS AND SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF CT RIVER NEAR
MIDDLE HADDAM. FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...WTB/NMB
HYDROLOGY...JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 220525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...FOR THIS UPDATE NEEDED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY NOT
FALLEN MUCH AT ALL. THIS WAS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS REMAINDER VERY LOW.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES) HAVE SKIMMED OUR NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THESE WERE MOVING
AWAY...AND THERE WERE NO MORE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.

TRIMMED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREDIBLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND THE FACT THAT LATEST RUC INDICATED NO SHOWERS
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL...HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LOCALLY AROUND 50 AT ALBANY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM










000
FXUS61 KALY 220153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL TO THE
NORTH MOVING MAINLY EAST...SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AT LOW LEVELS BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH AND CURRENT
FORECASTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY ARE IN THE
BALL PARK. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL TO THE
NORTH MOVING MAINLY EAST...SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AT LOW LEVELS BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH AND CURRENT
FORECASTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY ARE IN THE
BALL PARK. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM









000
FXUS61 KBOX 220132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
932 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...AND
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BRISK
AND COOLER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ON AND OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO DROP DUE TO DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WE SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP
NEAR S COAST. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE DENSE FOG BASED UPON LATEST
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THICKER MID CLOUDS IN QUICKER...
BUT GIVEN CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LIGHT S FLOW THINKING
IS WE WILL SEE IT FORM BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING THE FRONT BRINGS INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO WE EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES LOW MOST OF THE DAY.

MODEL QPF REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH 18Z AND THEN MOVES INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW
PCPN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. JET PLACEMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR UPPER
VENTING LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH PLACEMENT OVER
NY/PA ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE. WE WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF ADVERTISE TOTALS NEAR 50 TUESDAY NIGHT. GGEM
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM...THE GFS JUST
BELOW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
EMBEDDED TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS WITH THE
SHOWERS.

MIXING PROFILES FAVOR MIXING TO 950 MB BUT THESE ARE FREQUENTLY AN
UNDERESTIMATE. USING 925 MB TEMPS...MAX SFC TEMPS SHOULD REACH
65-70...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP
A BLANKET OVER THE AIRMASS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER
VALUES ADVECT IN. WE FAVORED MINS IN THE 40S WITH COLDEST VALUES
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY
 * BREEZY AND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
 * RISK FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT

DETAILS...

WED...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY IN EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER
TROF CLOSES OFF.  CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH H850 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  NOT SURE IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS POINT WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME DECOUPLING
MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT BUT THINK EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN AND
COASTAL PLAIN MAY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THU...WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS IN THE
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRI...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS REACHING 60 TO 65
     EXCEPT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 50S ALONG COASTAL AREAS. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EVOLVES IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/ AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT.

SAT...UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE OCCLUDED OR COLD FRONT MAY
CROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES.  AT THIS TIME MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
IS EXPECTED...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  THIS IS A CONSENSUS OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY.

SUN AND MON...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.  GFS INDICATES A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
DRIFTING TO THE VICINITY OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROMPT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. HOWEVER ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...
PUSHING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AND EAST DURING SUN/MON...AND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME. AT
THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE OVERALL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR MONDAY IS FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 120 WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS. PATCHY FOG
MAINLY NEAR S COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED 06Z-11Z.

TUESDAY...VFR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. SCATTERED IFR
POSSIBLE. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...

WED MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

WED AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST AND BECOMING VFR
EAST. GUSTY SFC WINDS...POSSIBLY TO 30 KT.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR. MODERATE CHANCE OF GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DURING THURSDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WITH VALUES REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BUILD TO AROUND 15
KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. SEAS ALSO BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH 5 FEET ON PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS TOWARD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. VSBYS WILL LOWER
IN SHOWERS...REACHING 1-3 MILES AT TIMES. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS MAY REACH 5 FEET BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...CONTINUE THINKING THAT NW WINDS LIKELY INCREASE WELL
INTO SCA CRITERIA ALL COASTAL WATERS DURING WED. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE WED AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE...AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BEGIN
TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR THU NIGHT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LINGER ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SAT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEAS AND SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY REMAINING FORECAST POINT IN FLOOD IS ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF
CT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...WHICH IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...WTB/NMB
HYDROLOGY...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
740 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST FROM NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY...AND SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BE ESPECIALLY
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR ON AND OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH THE GENERAL FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAINING LIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
COOL AGAIN...BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS TO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR DEWPOINT
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG. LOCATIONS MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE FOG INCLUDE SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI INCLUDING THE
CAPE/ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING THE FRONT BRINGS INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO WE EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES LOW MOST OF THE DAY.

MODEL QPF REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH 18Z AND THEN MOVES INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW
PCPN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. JET PLACEMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR UPPER
VENTING LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH PLACEMENT OVER
NY/PA ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE. WE WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF ADVERTISE TOTALS NEAR 50 TUESDAY NIGHT. GGEM
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM...THE GFS JUST
BELOW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
EMBEDDED TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS WITH THE
SHOWERS.

MIXING PROFILES FAVOR MIXING TO 950 MB BUT THESE ARE FREQUENTLY AN
UNDERESTIMATE. USING 925 MB TEMPS...MAX SFC TEMPS SHOULD REACH
65-70...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP
A BLANKET OVER THE AIRMASS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER
VALUES ADVECT IN. WE FAVORED MINS IN THE 40S WITH COLDEST VALUES
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY
 * BREEZY AND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
 * RISK FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT

DETAILS...

WED...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY IN EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER
TROF CLOSES OFF.  CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH H850 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  NOT SURE IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS POINT WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME DECOUPLING
MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT BUT THINK EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN AND
COASTAL PLAIN MAY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THU...WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS IN THE
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRI...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS REACHING 60 TO 65
     EXCEPT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 50S ALONG COASTAL AREAS. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EVOLVES IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/ AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT.

SAT...UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE OCCLUDED OR COLD FRONT MAY
CROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES.  AT THIS TIME MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
IS EXPECTED...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  THIS IS A CONSENSUS OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY.

SUN AND MON...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.  GFS INDICATES A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
DRIFTING TO THE VICINITY OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROMPT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. HOWEVER ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...
PUSHING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AND EAST DURING SUN/MON...AND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME. AT
THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE OVERALL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR MONDAY IS FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S-SW WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. VSBYS IN ANY FOG WILL BE 3-5 MILES
EXCEPT 1 MILE OR LESS ON PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...VFR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. SCATTERED IFR
POSSIBLE. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...

WED MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

WED AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST AND BECOMING VFR
EAST. GUSTY SFC WINDS...POSSIBLY TO 30 KT.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR. MODERATE CHANCE OF GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DURING THURSDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WITH VALUES REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BUILD TO AROUND 15
KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. SEAS ALSO BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH 5 FEET ON PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS TOWARD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. VSBYS WILL LOWER
IN SHOWERS...REACHING 1-3 MILES AT TIMES. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS MAY REACH 5 FEET BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...CONTINUE THINKING THAT NW WINDS LIKELY INCREASE WELL
INTO SCA CRITERIA ALL COASTAL WATERS DURING WED. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE WED AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE...AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BEGIN
TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR THU NIGHT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LINGER ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SAT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEAS AND SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WITH VALUES REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BUILD TO AROUND 15
KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. SEAS ALSO BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH 5 FEET ON PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS TOWARD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. VSBYS WILL LOWER
IN SHOWERS...REACHING 1-3 MILES AT TIMES. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS MAY REACH 5 FEET BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...CONTINUE THINKING THAT NW WINDS LIKELY INCREASE WELL
INTO SCA CRITERIA ALL COASTAL WATERS DURING WED. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE WED AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE...AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BEGIN
TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR THU NIGHT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LINGER ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SAT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEAS AND SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAINSTEM CT RIVER.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

CT RIVER AT HARTFORD HAS RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD. THE WARNING AT HARTFORD HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KALY 212320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISC BELOW...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT SINCE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...EVEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AS A
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MONIR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISC BELOW...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT SINCE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...EVEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AS A
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM








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