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000
FXUS61 KBOX 021811
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE.  STILL ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AT
MID AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS INTENSE AND MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL KEEP THE WARM FRONT JAMMED NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...EXCEPT
SOME MIDDLE 50S IN PORTIONS OF RI/SOUTHEAST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  STEADY/HEAVY
RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST AT MID AFTERNOON AND
JUST EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOME LOCATIONS MAY IMPROVE TO LOW
END MVFR.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DRY WEATHER THIS
EVENING OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER...BUT BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z. SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH NEAR THE NH BORDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER NORTH.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  BULK OF SHOWERS MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TUE BUT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS PERSIST WITH THE LOWER
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE COAST.  SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF WINDS CAN
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IF SO...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER 10Z WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG



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000
FXUS61 KALY 021738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE STEADIER RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
OVER...AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COOL MOIST
REGIME LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION. ALSO...WITH AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SO...SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TO
THE NORTH.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY RISE ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN AFFECTING KGFL...AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM OF KGFL...SO PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS
RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AT KALB.
HOWEVER...RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KPSF AND KPOU AREAS. MOST
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
EVEN JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALSO.

SURROUNDING AREAS ARE IFR...SO PREDOMINANT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT INDICATING TEMPO MVFR TO VFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR...EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...LIKE WHAT IS
OCCURRING AROUND KPOU DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND.  BY
THIS EVENING...MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT SO
LIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES MUCH IF AT ALL...BUT IFR
CEILINGS COULD TREND TOWARD LIFR HEIGHTS.

CEILINGS COULD LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING IN SOME AREAS AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES KPOU AND KPSF MAINLY.
SO...INDICATING SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND JUST INTO
THE VFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES AND BRINGS SOME MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO KPSF
AND KPOU.

AFTER 12Z-15Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT
KPOU WHERE SOME RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
FOG...BUT WITH PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER...NOT INDICATING PREDOMINANT
FOG TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...SHIFTING TO MAINLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 021738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE STEADIER RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
OVER...AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COOL MOIST
REGIME LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION. ALSO...WITH AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SO...SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TO
THE NORTH.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY RISE ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN AFFECTING KGFL...AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM OF KGFL...SO PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS
RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AT KALB.
HOWEVER...RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KPSF AND KPOU AREAS. MOST
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
EVEN JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALSO.

SURROUNDING AREAS ARE IFR...SO PREDOMINANT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT INDICATING TEMPO MVFR TO VFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR...EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...LIKE WHAT IS
OCCURRING AROUND KPOU DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND.  BY
THIS EVENING...MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT SO
LIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES MUCH IF AT ALL...BUT IFR
CEILINGS COULD TREND TOWARD LIFR HEIGHTS.

CEILINGS COULD LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING IN SOME AREAS AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES KPOU AND KPSF MAINLY.
SO...INDICATING SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND JUST INTO
THE VFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES AND BRINGS SOME MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO KPSF
AND KPOU.

AFTER 12Z-15Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT
KPOU WHERE SOME RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
FOG...BUT WITH PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER...NOT INDICATING PREDOMINANT
FOG TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...SHIFTING TO MAINLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS IN WESTERN MA/CT ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON***

1135 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN MA/RI THOUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  MAIN FOCUS FOR THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTH COAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO WERE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND A FEW OF THESE MAY SURVIVE INTO PORTIONS OVER RHODE ISLAND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...GIVEN MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 3
OR 4 PM...SO BY THEN JUST A FEW LINGERING SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
SOME MORE DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...THINK THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH GIVEN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.  HIGHS SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE
50S SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE PIKE MAY NOT BREAK 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS WORKS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 3 PM...BEFORE MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE.  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN
PROGRESS IN NORTHERN CT AND MAY MAKE IT INTO RHODE ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE WEAKENING.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS AREAS
OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF
THROUGH 16Z.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021435
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BAND OF SHOWERS SWEEPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE***

***A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CT LATE THIS AM***

1035 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS OVERSPREADING WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AT LATE MORNING WITH
NEXT SHORTWAVE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION.  PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...CLOSET TO THE BEST
FORCING.  MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND PERHAPS WESTERN MA MAINLY
THROUGH NOON.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO BY THEN JUST A FEW LINGERING SPOT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME MORE DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...THINK THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH GIVEN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.  HIGHS SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE
50S SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE PIKE MAY NOT BREAK 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

940 AM UPDATE...

ONLY ADDITION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS WE ARE WATCHING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY.  A FEW WERE ALREADY INTO NORTHERN
CT AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN
MA.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS AREAS
OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF
THROUGH 16Z.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021344
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
945 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BAND OF SHOWERS SWEEPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE***

945 AM UPDATE...

NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING...BUT MOST
OF THE REGION WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXCEPT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. THERE ARE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST NY...SO THERE IS A LOW RISK A FEW MAY SURVIVE
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT WITH SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO BY THEN JUST A FEW LINGERING SPOT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME MORE DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...THINK THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH GIVEN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.  HIGHS SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE
50S SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE PIKE MAY NOT BREAK 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

940 AM UPDATE...

ONLY ADDITION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS WE ARE WATCHING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY.  LOW RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SURVIVING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THROUGH 16Z WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS AREAS
OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.  LOW RISK OF AN EMBEDDED T-STORM
THROUGH 16Z.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 021321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW
CT THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER BASED
ON RADAR AND SATELLLITE TRENDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AQND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS
WELL...DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN
AND FOG AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER AT KPOU TODAY. KPOU MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND FOG LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELS UP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT
OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
JUST SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH
SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVING NE FROM CENTRAL NY AND NE PA AND
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOSTLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS 15-21Z AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENG...WITH LESS COVERAGE NEAR
THE COAST. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT FORECAST TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAIN. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NOT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING TO PUT IT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
POINT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THROUGH THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS AN ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT THAT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT COULD MOVE.  DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THE WARM FRONT COULD SURGE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MA/NH BORDER...OR STAY JUST ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST.
THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS AREAS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT COULD SOAR INTO THE 60S...WHILE THOSE NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  AT THIS POINT...HAVE THE WARM
FRONT STAYING JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
50S FOR HIGHS.  WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT -RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS
AREAS OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF -RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
ON AND OFF PERIODS OF -RA AND FG.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 021031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 631 AM EDT...A COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT- WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH N/NE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE PA/MD/WV BORDER
WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS...RAP AND HRRR
OUTPUT...SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER ERN OH
MOVING INTO N-CNTRL PA. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS W-CNTRL NY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO ERN NY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAIN SHOULD
ENCOMPASS ALL OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND
THEN THE ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE...THOUGH A POCKET OF STEEPER
MID LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE...AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES OF 0 TO
-2C ON THE LATEST NAM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PLACED IN THE GRIDS NOON TO THE MID
PM OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
NEAR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN
AND FOG AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER AT KPOU TODAY. KPOU MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND FOG LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 020814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT...A COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT- WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH N/NE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE PA-MD BORDER
WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS...RAP AND HRRR
...SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER ERN OH MOVING INTO
W-CNTRL PA. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
W-CNTRL NY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD INTO ERN
NY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAIN SHOULD ENCOMPASS ALL OF ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND THEN THE ACTIVITY COULD BE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE...THOUGH A POCKET OF STEEPER
MID LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE...AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES OF 0 TO
-2C ON THE LATEST NAM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PLACED IN THE GRIDS IN THE EARLY
TO MID PM OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN
CATSKILLS...AND NEAR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A RUMBLE OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020710
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
310 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELS UP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT
OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TODAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION.  WHILE THE BEST LIFT AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE...EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS ARE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS...AND THE
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...CLOSEST TO LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WITH THE DRY AIR NOW ERODED...MOST LOCATIONS
ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE DEWPOINT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE RAIN TODAY THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.  MOST
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY SAW UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.  EXPECT A
TENTH TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE MA/NH BORDER AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.  THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH
THE RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING TO PUT IT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THROUGH THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS AN ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT THAT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT COULD MOVE.  DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THE WARM FRONT COULD SURGE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MA/NH BORDER...OR STAY JUST ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST.
THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS AREAS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT COULD SOAR INTO THE 60S...WHILE THOSE NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  AT THIS POINT...HAVE THE WARM
FRONT STAYING JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
50S FOR HIGHS.  WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT -RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS
AREAS OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF -RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
ON AND OFF PERIODS OF -RA AND FG.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 020544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S TO M40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND
LIGHT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES BTWN 11Z-14Z WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH STRATUS
EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVES AFTER SUNRISE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THE I-88
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55 MOST
VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 020544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S TO M40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND
LIGHT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES BTWN 11Z-14Z WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH STRATUS
EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVES AFTER SUNRISE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THE I-88
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55 MOST
VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
 A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S TO M40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND
LIGHT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES BTWN 11Z-14Z WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH STRATUS
EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVES AFTER SUNRISE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THE I-88
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55 MOST
VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 020244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...OUR AREA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF
DISTURBANCE...ONE TO OUR EAST...AND ANOTHER ONE WORKING TOWARD OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

STILL...RADARS INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. WHAT IT WAS NOT REVEALING WERE THE LIKELY
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE.

WE EXPECT A "COOL DOWN" OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT...MEANING THEY SHOULD
LOWER AND ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE DRIZZLE. SO...WHILE WE LOWERED THE
POPS TO 20 PERCENT...WE INCLUDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...PATCHY DRIZZLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S REGIONWIDE...WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. WE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE READINGS
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING 1-3 DEGREES.

A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 MPH OR LESS.

WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE
ALONG THE I-88 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN (OR DRIZZLE) TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55
MOST VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 020242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...OUR AREA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF
DISTURBANCE...ONE TO OUR EAST...AND ANOTHER ONE WORKING TOWARD OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

STILL...RADARS INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. WHAT IT WAS NOT REVEALING WERE THE LIKELY
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE.

WE EXPECT A "COOL DOWN" OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT...MEANING THEY SHOULD
LOWER AND ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE DRIZZLE. SO...WHILE WE LOWERED THE
POPS TO 20 PERCENT...WE INCLUDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...PATCHY DRIZZLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S REGIONWIDE...WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. WE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE READINGS
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING 1-3 DEGREES.

A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 MPH OR LESS.

WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE
ALONG THE I-88 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN (OR DRIZZLE) TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55
MOST VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND AT THIS TIME AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE NARROWED
QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT THEM TO
CONTINUE TO NARROW AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHERE THE MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND BUT BELIEVE THIS WOULDN/T
OCCUR TIL NEAR SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COMPLEX SYSTEM TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERY WEATHER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE...WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AS HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP TO REACH SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

THIS LOW MAY LIFT THE STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS SPREAD AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT WELL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND EC KEEP IS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/PIKE.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD PRECIP FROM
SW TO NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM...DEPENDING ON WHERE IT
STALLS DURING THE DAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE WAVE TO BRING
PRECIP NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY... AS NOTED...SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED JET GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THAT WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
FOCUSES A 35-KNOT SOUTH JET TO OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND ISLANDS...WE WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN WESTERN MASS/CT. CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY... SIGNS IN THE UPPER DATA THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CRUISES PAST AND GENERATES ANOTHER
WAVE ON THE FRONT. LESS OF A FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
LIFT...BUT FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. ONE AREA WILL BE
ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS NEAREST THE OFFSHORE WAVE...THE SECOND
WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE LOW OFF DELMARVA.  UPPER FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY BRINGING MILDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
JET IN THAT SOUTH FLOW WILL ALIGNED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
OUR AREA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FORCING OF SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER EACH DAY BUT MAINTAIN
MINS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z AS STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... IFR TUESDAY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERALL QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT
TO 5 FEET RESULTING IN SCA. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW...SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL PICK UP ABOVE
5 FEET. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE WATERS AS WELL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOSTLY NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT DIRECTION SEA
HEIGHTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. THE BEST
CHANCE OF 5 FOOT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS WILL
VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.  VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LOWER AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 020002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT...MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS SLIPPED TO OUR EAST
AS ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ON BY. DESPITE THE BREAK IN STEADY RAIN
THERE WERE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS TREND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES (HOLDING IN THE 40S). LOOK FOR NUISANCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

WE DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA.

AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED MORE LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS NEXT SHIELD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE EXIT TO OUR EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN GREENS...50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...55 TO PERHAPS 60
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF LATE DAY SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 020002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT...MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS SLIPPED TO OUR EAST
AS ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ON BY. DESPITE THE BREAK IN STEADY RAIN
THERE WERE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS TREND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES (HOLDING IN THE 40S). LOOK FOR NUISANCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

WE DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA.

AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED MORE LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS NEXT SHIELD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE EXIT TO OUR EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN GREENS...50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...55 TO PERHAPS 60
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF LATE DAY SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAKENED BY THE DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. EVENING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS RANGED FROM 5
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH TO 25 DEGREES IN THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT PCPN AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM A TRACE TO ONE- TENTH
INCH...MOSTLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE.

SURFACE LOW OFF ATLANTIC CITY WILL MOVE PAST THE SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST OF US THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE EAST. MOST SHOWERS SHOULD END 04Z-06Z. FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE DEPRESSIONS ARE
LOWEST AND THE AIR CLOSEST TO SATURATION. FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIEST...FOG WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT. BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHES FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S...WITH UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE MASS EAST COAST AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE. HAD
REPORTS OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. BELIEVE THE
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TONIGHT UNTIL 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE 0C.
OTHERWISE CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
EVENING. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 04-06Z AS MID-LEVEL DRY
MOVES INTO THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE
SATURATED PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS RESULTING IN FOG AND DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COMPLEX SYSTEM TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERY WEATHER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE...WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AS HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP TO REACH SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

THIS LOW MAY LIFT THE STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS SPREAD AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT WELL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND EC KEEP IS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/PIKE.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD PRECIP FROM
SW TO NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM...DEPENDING ON WHERE IT
STALLS DURING THE DAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE WAVE TO BRING
PRECIP NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY... AS NOTED...SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED JET GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THAT WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
FOCUSES A 35-KNOT SOUTH JET TO OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND ISLANDS...WE WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN WESTERN MASS/CT. CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY... SIGNS IN THE UPPER DATA THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CRUISES PAST AND GENERATES ANOTHER
WAVE ON THE FRONT. LESS OF A FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
LIFT...BUT FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. ONE AREA WILL BE
ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS NEAREST THE OFFSHORE WAVE...THE SECOND
WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE LOW OFF DELMARVA.  UPPER FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY BRINGING MILDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
JET IN THAT SOUTH FLOW WILL ALIGNED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
OUR AREA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FORCING OF SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER EACH DAY BUT MAINTAIN
MINS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z AS STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... IFR TUESDAY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERALL QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION. PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT
TO 5 FEET RESULTING IN SCA. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW...SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL PICK UP ABOVE
5 FEET. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE WATERS AS WELL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOSTLY NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT DIRECTION SEA
HEIGHTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. THE BEST
CHANCE OF 5 FOOT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS WILL
VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.  VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LOWER AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 012008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011936
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE. HAD REPORTS OF SOME SLEET MIXED
IN WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. BELIEVE THE CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
TONIGHT UNTIL 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE 0C. OTHERWISE CHILLY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
EVENING. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 04-06Z AS MID-LEVEL DRY
MOVES INTO THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE
SATURATED PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS RESULTING IN FOG AND DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 40S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MASS EAST COAST AS WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COMPLEX SYSTEM TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERY WEATHER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE...WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AS HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP TO REACH SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

THIS LOW MAY LIFT THE STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS SPREAD AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT WELL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND EC KEEP IS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/PIKE.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD PRECIP FROM
SW TO NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM...DEPENDING ON WHERE IT
STALLS DURING THE DAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE WAVE TO BRING
PRECIP NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY... AS NOTED...SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED JET GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THAT WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
FOCUSES A 35-KNOT SOUTH JET TO OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND ISLANDS...WE WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN WESTERN MASS/CT. CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY... SIGNS IN THE UPPER DATA THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CRUISES PAST AND GENERATES ANOTHER
WAVE ON THE FRONT. LESS OF A FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
LIFT...BUT FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. ONE AREA WILL BE
ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS NEAREST THE OFFSHORE WAVE...THE SECOND
WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE LOW OFF DELMARVA.  UPPER FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY BRINGING MILDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
JET IN THAT SOUTH FLOW WILL ALIGNED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
OUR AREA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FORCING OF SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER EACH DAY BUT MAINTAIN
MINS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO MVFR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER
06Z AS STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LINGERING INTO EARLY MON BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... IFR TUESDAY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERALL QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION. PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT
TO 5 FEET RESULTING IN SCA. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW...SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL PICK UP ABOVE
5 FEET. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE WATERS AS WELL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOSTLY NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT DIRECTION SEA
HEIGHTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. THE BEST
CHANCE OF 5 FOOT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS WILL
VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.  VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LOWER AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011923
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
323 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH THE
LEADING EDGING MAKING IT TO WORCESTER AND GROTON AS OF 1000 AM.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI
SO IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE ANY HEAVY PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TOO. OVERALL ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A
SATURATED LOW LEVEL ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE
WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER
TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY... AS NOTED...SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED JET GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THAT WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WAVE FOCUSSES
A 35-KNOT SOUTH JET TO OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST AND
ISLANDS...WE WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. THE
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
WARMEST TEMPS IN WESTERN MASS/CT. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY... SIGNS IN THE UPPER DATA THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CRUISES PAST AND GENERATES ANOTHER
WAVE ON THE FRONT. LESS OF A FOCUSSED LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
LIFT...BUT FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. ONE AREA WILL BE ALONG
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS NEAREST THE OFFSHORE WAVE...THE SECOND WILL BE
IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE LOW OFF DELMARVA.  UPPER FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY BRINGING MILDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
JET IN THAT SOUTH FLOW WILL ALIGNED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
OUR AREA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FORCING OF SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER EACH DAY BUT MAINTAIN
MINS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW
ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG.
RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL
MA UNTIL AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN AT TIMES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... IFR TUESDAY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOSTLY NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT DIRECTION SEA
HEIGHTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. THE BEST
CHANCE OF 5 FOOT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS WILL
VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.  VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LOWER AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011621
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH THE
LEADING EDGING MAKING IT TO WORCESTER AND GROTON AS OF 1000 AM.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI
SO IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE ANY HEAVY PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TOO. OVERALL ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A
SATURATED LOW LEVEL ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE
WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER
TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM
  MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF
DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.

DAILIES...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY
AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW
ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG.
RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL
MA UNTIL AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN AT TIMES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS
MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN STILL BACK ACROSS EASTERN NY AND ADVANCING
EAST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB WILL DELAY ONSET OF
RAIN AS IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG. EXPECT RAIN TO REACH CT VALLEY
LATER THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY BUT NOT UNTIL LATE TODAY ACROSS E MA
WHERE MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM
  MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF
DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.

DAILIES...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY
AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW
ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG.
RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL
MA UNTIL AROUND 21Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE OF RAIN
AT TIMES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS
MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN STILL BACK ACROSS EASTERN NY AND ADVANCING
EAST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB WILL DELAY ONSET OF
RAIN AS IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG. EXPECT RAIN TO REACH CT VALLEY
LATER THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY BUT NOT UNTIL LATE TODAY ACROSS E MA
WHERE MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM
  MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF
DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.

DAILIES...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY
AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW
ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG.
RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL
MA UNTIL AROUND 21Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE OF RAIN
AT TIMES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS
MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 011055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND PA INTO ERN NY THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY REACHING THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY...WRN DACKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS BASED ON THE LATEST
REGIONAL AND KENX RADARS...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010858
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW...RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
RAIN.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM
  MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF
DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.

DAILIES...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY
AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN
MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 12-15Z TODAY REACHING THE EAST COAST
BETWEEN 15-18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS
MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF
RAINFALL SOME ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE
RAIN WILL REALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
AT ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF
RAINFALL SOME ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE
RAIN WILL REALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
AT ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 010230
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO VERY SLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY HIGH ONES. RAIN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WORKING INTO SW NY...CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT WAS SPREADING INTO PA. WHILE THIS FIRST WAVE WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND EASTERLY INFLOW TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH.

THE WIND WAS VARIABLE TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S AND 40S.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

THE RAIN ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR
REGION. THEN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AMOUNTING
TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT
ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55 VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH
THE TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 010229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO VERY SLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY HIGH ONES. RAIN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WORKING INTO SW NY...CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT WAS SPREADING INTO PA. WHILE THIS FIRST WAVE WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND EASTERLY INFLOW TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH.

THE WIND WAS VARIABLE TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S AND 40S.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

THE RAIN ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR
REGION. THEN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AMOUNTING
TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT
ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55 VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH
THE TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
TWO BURSTS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE A BRIEF DRYING
TREND ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER
REMAINS QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DRY AIR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE EVENING CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WE GET
BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF THE
COOLING PERIOD IS SHORT...MIN TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN
FORECAST. CURRENTLY STAYING WITH MIN TEMPS 40-45...WITH ENOUGH
COOLING TIME THE COOLER SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 30S.

EXTRAPOLATION ON THE INCOMING CLOUD SHIELD WOULD BRING THICKER
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN MA/CT AROUND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...CENTRAL HILLS
MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM...AND COASTAL PLAIN 2 TO 4 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL FEED FAVORABLE UPPER
DYNAMICS FOR SURFACE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW TWO STREAMS OF 1 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO THE COAST
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A COASTAL LOW TO SPIN
UP...SETTING UP OVERRUNNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MASS. TOTAL
TOTALS WILL ALSO CLIMB HIGH INTO THE 40S. THIS MAY ALLOW EMBEDDED
THUNDER IN THE AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

TIMING OF PCPN...ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING PCPN INTO WESTERN
MA/CT SUNDAY MORNING...AND REACHING EASTERN MASS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE AT
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MASS. WITH THE STEADY EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SUSPECT CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WILL BE
A FACTOR IF THE RAIN DOES BRIEFLY DIMINISH.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALSO HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 45-50. WITH WIND COMING OFF THAT WATER IT
WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE HIGHER...AROUND 50
OR THE LOWER 50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL HAVE A MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE SPREAD IS SOMEWHAT LARGE IN THE EXTENDED. LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...A POTENT CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE REGION. DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COULD BE IN FOR AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN STALLING THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT A
SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST
AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW LI/S BELOW 0 AND TT ABOVE
50S...INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOWS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS INTERACT...CANNOT RULE IT OUT.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
PUSHING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GET AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THIS WAVE AS THE NAM BRINGS PRECIP CLOSE TO THE
NH/MA BORDER...THE GFS KEEPS IT CONFINED TO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE
EC IS IN BETWEEN.

THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE TUESDAY
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS IT
IS THE PICK OF THE WEEK? SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW.
HOWEVER LARGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THANKS TO
ONSHORE FLOW AS INDICATING BY THE EC. GFS KEEPS THE FLOW MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...BUT THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE SPREAD IS LARGE.

CONTINUED WITH A  MODEL AND ENSEMBLES BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE GETS RESOLVED.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING CUTOFF
LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT
FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY-SATURDAY USED A MODEL BLEND. FOR NOW
FORECASTING A MORE ACTIVE WET PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
BELOW AVG FOR HIGHS...AND ABOVE AVG FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 11-14Z
SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z. INITIAL VFR IN
LIGHT RAIN DETERIORATES TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AREAS OF IFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST IN -SHRA.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20
KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET. RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING SUNDAY...ENTERING THE WATERS LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE WATERS NEAR CAPE
ANN/NORTH SHORE. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS ON THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. -SHRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 010001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
810 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR REGION...SO
FAR...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOME LOWER STRATUS CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

IT WAS STILL MILD OUT WITH MANY VALLEYS ENJOYING TEMPERATURES
AROUND 60...MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WAS LIGHT TO NORTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S.

OVERNIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN.
RAIN...WHICH WAS STILL LOCATED WELL TO SOUTHWEST IN WESTERN
PA...WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE
ELSE IN OUR REGION.


THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY MIDDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA (FA) WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN
INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED
A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
TWO BURSTS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE A BRIEF DRYING
TREND ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO DROP QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
EAST TO LIMIT COOLING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DRY AIR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE EVENING CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WE GET
BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF THE
COOLING PERIOD IS SHORT...MIN TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN
FORECAST. CURRENTLY STAYING WITH MIN TEMPS 40-45...WITH ENOUGH
COOLING TIME THE COOLER SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 30S.

EXTRAPOLATION ON THE INCOMING CLOUD SHIELD WOULD BRING THICKER
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN MA/CT AROUND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...CENTRAL HILLS
MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM...AND COASTAL PLAIN 2 TO 4 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL FEED FAVORABLE UPPER
DYNAMICS FOR SURFACE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW TWO STREAMS OF 1 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO THE COAST
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A COASTAL LOW TO SPIN
UP...SETTING UP OVERRUNNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MASS. TOTAL
TOTALS WILL ALSO CLIMB HIGH INTO THE 40S. THIS MAY ALLOW EMBEDDED
THUNDER IN THE AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

TIMING OF PCPN...ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING PCPN INTO WESTERN
MA/CT SUNDAY MORNING...AND REACHING EASTERN MASS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE AT
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MASS. WITH THE STEADY EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SUSPECT CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WILL BE
A FACTOR IF THE RAIN DOES BRIEFLY DIMINISH.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALSO HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 45-50. WITH WIND COMING OFF THAT WATER IT
WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE HIGHER...AROUND 50
OR THE LOWER 50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL HAVE A MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE SPREAD IS SOMEWHAT LARGE IN THE EXTENDED. LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...A POTENT CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE REGION. DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COULD BE IN FOR AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN STALLING THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT A
SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST
AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW LI/S BELOW 0 AND TT ABOVE
50S...INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOWS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS INTERACT...CANNOT RULE IT OUT.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
PUSHING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GET AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THIS WAVE AS THE NAM BRINGS PRECIP CLOSE TO THE
NH/MA BORDER...THE GFS KEEPS IT CONFINED TO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE
EC IS IN BETWEEN.

THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE TUESDAY
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS IT
IS THE PICK OF THE WEEK? SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW.
HOWEVER LARGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THANKS TO
ONSHORE FLOW AS INDICATING BY THE EC. GFS KEEPS THE FLOW MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...BUT THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE SPREAD IS LARGE.

CONTINUED WITH A  MODEL AND ENSEMBLES BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE GETS RESOLVED.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING CUTOFF
LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT
FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY-SATURDAY USED A MODEL BLEND. FOR NOW
FORECASTING A MORE ACTIVE WET PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
BELOW AVG FOR HIGHS...AND ABOVE AVG FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 11-14Z
SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z. INITIAL VFR IN
LIGHT RAIN DETERIORATES TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AREAS OF IFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST IN -SHRA.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20
KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET. RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING SUNDAY...ENTERING THE WATERS LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE WATERS NEAR CAPE
ANN/NORTH SHORE. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS ON THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. -SHRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
TWO BURSTS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE A BRIEF DRYING
TREND ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO DROP QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
EAST TO LIMIT COOLING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DRY AIR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE EVENING CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WE GET
BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF THE
COOLING PERIOD IS SHORT...MIN TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN
FORECAST. CURRENTLY STAYING WITH MIN TEMPS 40-45...WITH ENOUGH
COOLING TIME THE COOLER SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 30S.

EXTRAPOLATION ON THE INCOMING CLOUD SHIELD WOULD BRING THICKER
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN MA/CT AROUND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...CENTRAL HILLS
MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM...AND COASTAL PLAIN 2 TO 4 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL FEED FAVORABLE UPPER
DYNAMICS FOR SURFACE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW TWO STREAMS OF 1 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO THE COAST
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A COASTAL LOW TO SPIN
UP...SETTING UP OVERRUNNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MASS. TOTAL
TOTALS WILL ALSO CLIMB HIGH INTO THE 40S. THIS MAY ALLOW EMBEDDED
THUNDER IN THE AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

TIMING OF PCPN...ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING PCPN INTO WESTERN
MA/CT SUNDAY MORNING...AND REACHING EASTERN MASS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE AT
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MASS. WITH THE STEADY EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SUSPECT CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WILL BE
A FACTOR IF THE RAIN DOES BRIEFLY DIMINISH.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALSO HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 45-50. WITH WIND COMING OFF THAT WATER IT
WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE HIGHER...AROUND 50
OR THE LOWER 50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL HAVE A MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE SPREAD IS SOMEWHAT LARGE IN THE EXTENDED. LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...A POTENT CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE REGION. DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COULD BE IN FOR AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN STALLING THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT A
SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST
AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW LI/S BELOW 0 AND TT ABOVE
50S...INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOWS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS INTERACT...CANNOT RULE IT OUT.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
PUSHING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GET AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THIS WAVE AS THE NAM BRINGS PRECIP CLOSE TO THE
NH/MA BORDER...THE GFS KEEPS IT CONFINED TO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE
EC IS IN BETWEEN.

THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE TUESDAY
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS IT
IS THE PICK OF THE WEEK? SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW.
HOWEVER LARGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THANKS TO
ONSHORE FLOW AS INDICATING BY THE EC. GFS KEEPS THE FLOW MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...BUT THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE SPREAD IS LARGE.

CONTINUED WITH A  MODEL AND ENSEMBLES BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE GETS RESOLVED.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING CUTOFF
LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT
FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY-SATURDAY USED A MODEL BLEND. FOR NOW
FORECASTING A MORE ACTIVE WET PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
BELOW AVG FOR HIGHS...AND ABOVE AVG FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 11-14Z
SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z. INITIAL VFR IN
LIGHT RAIN DETERIORATES TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AREAS OF IFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST IN -SHRA.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20
KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET. RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING SUNDAY...ENTERING THE WATERS LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE WATERS NEAR CAPE
ANN/NORTH SHORE. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS ON THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. -SHRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
TWO BURSTS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE A BRIEF DRYING
TREND ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH-BASED DIURNAL CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE COASTAL
PLAIN REMAINS MAINLY CLEAR. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH
THE SETTING SUN. COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DRY AIR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE EVENING CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WE GET
BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF THE
COOLING PERIOD IS SHORT...MIN TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN
FORECAST. CURRENTLY STAYING WITH MIN TEMPS 40-45...WITH ENOUGH
COOLING TIME THE COOLER SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 30S.

EXTRAPOLATION ON THE INCOMING CLOUD SHIELD WOULD BRING THICKER
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN MA/CT AROUND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...CENTRAL HILLS
MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM...AND COASTAL PLAIN 2 TO 4 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL FEED FAVORABLE UPPER
DYNAMICS FOR SURFACE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW TWO STREAMS OF 1 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO THE COAST
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A COASTAL LOW TO SPIN
UP...SETTING UP OVERRUNNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MASS. TOTAL
TOTALS WILL ALSO CLIMB HIGH INTO THE 40S. THIS MAY ALLOW EMBEDDED
THUNDER IN THE AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

TIMING OF PCPN...ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING PCPN INTO WESTERN
MA/CT SUNDAY MORNING...AND REACHING EASTERN MASS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE AT
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MASS. WITH THE STEADY EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SUSPECT CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WILL BE
A FACTOR IF THE RAIN DOES BRIEFLY DIMINISH.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALSO HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 45-50. WITH WIND COMING OFF THAT WATER IT
WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE HIGHER...AROUND 50
OR THE LOWER 50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL HAVE A MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE SPREAD IS SOMEWHAT LARGE IN THE EXTENDED. LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...A POTENT CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE REGION. DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COULD BE IN FOR AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN STALLING THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT A
SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST
AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW LI/S BELOW 0 AND TT ABOVE
50S...INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOWS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS INTERACT...CANNOT RULE IT OUT.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
PUSHING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GET AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THIS WAVE AS THE NAM BRINGS PRECIP CLOSE TO THE
NH/MA BORDER...THE GFS KEEPS IT CONFINED TO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE
EC IS IN BETWEEN.

THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE TUESDAY
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS IT
IS THE PICK OF THE WEEK? SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW.
HOWEVER LARGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THANKS TO
ONSHORE FLOW AS INDICATING BY THE EC. GFS KEEPS THE FLOW MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...BUT THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE SPREAD IS LARGE.

CONTINUED WITH A  MODEL AND ENSEMBLES BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE GETS RESOLVED.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING CUTOFF
LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT
FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY-SATURDAY USED A MODEL BLEND. FOR NOW
FORECASTING A MORE ACTIVE WET PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
BELOW AVG FOR HIGHS...AND ABOVE AVG FOR LOWS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST WIND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 11-14Z
SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z. INITIAL VFR IN
LIGHT RAIN DETERIORATES TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AREAS OF IFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST IN -SHRA.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20
KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET. RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING SUNDAY...ENTERING THE WATERS LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE WATERS NEAR CAPE
ANN/NORTH SHORE. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS ON THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. -SHRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 301952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 301952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




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