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000
FXUS61 KBOX 011421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTH COAST
THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEARING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY
TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTH COAST
THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEARING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY
TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
803 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF RAIN CONFINED S OF THE ISLANDS AT 1130Z. NOTING AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPTS /AROUND 70 DEGS/
GENERALLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BREAKING
ACROSS S NH/NE MA WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THOSE
CLOUD BREAKS AS WELL.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY
TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
803 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF RAIN CONFINED S OF THE ISLANDS AT 1130Z. NOTING AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPTS /AROUND 70 DEGS/
GENERALLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BREAKING
ACROSS S NH/NE MA WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THOSE
CLOUD BREAKS AS WELL.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY
TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF RAIN CONFINED S OF THE ISLANDS AT 1130Z. NOTING AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPTS /AROUND 70 DEGS/
GENERALLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BREAKING
ACROSS S NH/NE MA WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THOSE
CLOUD BREAKS AS WELL.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF RAIN CONFINED S OF THE ISLANDS AT 1130Z. NOTING AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPTS /AROUND 70 DEGS/
GENERALLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BREAKING
ACROSS S NH/NE MA WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THOSE
CLOUD BREAKS AS WELL.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 011147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 011147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 011046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.









000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 010827
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MASS...AS WELL AS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS TOWARD SUNRISE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
THE SHOWERS COULD CLIP NANTUCKET.

TODAY...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE 2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
MAX SFC TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL
THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MASS...AS WELL AS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS TOWARD SUNRISE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
THE SHOWERS COULD CLIP NANTUCKET.

TODAY...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCII FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE 2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
MAX SFC TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A GENERAL WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL
THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MASS...AS WELL AS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS TOWARD SUNRISE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
THE SHOWERS COULD CLIP NANTUCKET.

TODAY...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCII FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE 2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
MAX SFC TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A GENERAL WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK




000
FXUS61 KALY 010625
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 010625
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS













000
FXUS61 KBOX 010604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIED DOWN. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR...AND
WITH LIGHT WIND THAT SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.

RADAR SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST MOVING EAST. THESE
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ROUGHLY 4-6 AM. LOW END CHANCE
THAT THESE COULD GRAZE THE ISLANDS...MOSTLY THEY SHOULDBE OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIED DOWN. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR...AND
WITH LIGHT WIND THAT SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.

RADAR SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST MOVING EAST. THESE
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ROUGHLY 4-6 AM. LOW END CHANCE
THAT THESE COULD GRAZE THE ISLANDS...MOSTLY THEY SHOULDBE OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIED DOWN. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR...AND
WITH LIGHT WIND THAT SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.

RADAR SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST MOVING EAST. THESE
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ROUGHLY 4-6 AM. LOW END CHANCE
THAT THESE COULD GRAZE THE ISLANDS...MOSTLY THEY SHOULDBE OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIED DOWN. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR...AND
WITH LIGHT WIND THAT SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.

RADAR SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST MOVING EAST. THESE
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ROUGHLY 4-6 AM. LOW END CHANCE
THAT THESE COULD GRAZE THE ISLANDS...MOSTLY THEY SHOULDBE OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KALY 010459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 010459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 010239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1039...OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...OUR RADAR HAS NO ECHOES
AS PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST CONTINUING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEB CAMS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE
ADDED TO THE GRIDS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BASED ON RADAR. NOT MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 010239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1039...OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...OUR RADAR HAS NO ECHOES
AS PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST CONTINUING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEB CAMS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE
ADDED TO THE GRIDS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BASED ON RADAR. NOT MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 010212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED DOWN. MAY STILL BE SOME THUNDER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS 40 DBZ ARE STILL REACHING UP TO THE -10C LEVEL.
PCPN SHOULD END ON THE RI COAST AROUND 11 PM AND ON THE
CAPE/ISLANDS BY 1 AM.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN EASTERN MASS AND RI IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WHILE SOUTHERN NH/WESTERN MASS/NORTHERN CT
HAVE LIFTED TO VFR. EXPECT THE EASTERN AREAS TO CLEAR OUT BY 1 AM.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND VERY HUMID AIR WILL MEAN A TREND FROM VFR
BACK TO IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MASS. COULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS OF IFR IN
THE CT VALLEY.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/WTB
MARINE...BELK/KJC/WTB



000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 312339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING...
HAVING DIMINISHED 400-600 J/KG WITHIN THE PAST 3 HOURS. WITH
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...THERE IS DECENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT TO MAXIMIZE IT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. RATHER THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THOSE WITH PLANS
OUTDOORS THIS EVENING SHOULD GO INSIDE IMMEDIATELY IF
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR PARTICULAR REGION. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN THE POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STRIKE ZONE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. 31/20Z HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING
FOR CONVECTION...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON IT FOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ AND SE NY IN AXIS OF
SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. CLOSER TO HOME...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BUT
THERE ARE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SNE SO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION 21-00Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALREADY NEAR 2" AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
2.25" TOWARD 00Z SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHING 40 KT IN THE WEST SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO A CONCERN IF
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A WEAKENED STATE TO MAKE
IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY WANES TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL
SOME SBCAPE AND HIGH KI VALUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE COLUMN
WILL WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE N LATE TONIGHT ACROSS N ZONES.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MINS 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN FARTHER
INLAND...BUT SEVERAL SITES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ALREADY
SOCKED IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO SUPPORT SOME SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS SO SCA
WILL CONTINUE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA BUT BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT SO SCA HERE AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING...
HAVING DIMINISHED 400-600 J/KG WITHIN THE PAST 3 HOURS. WITH
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...THERE IS DECENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT TO MAXIMIZE IT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. RATHER THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THOSE WITH PLANS
OUTDOORS THIS EVENING SHOULD GO INSIDE IMMEDIATELY IF
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR PARTICULAR REGION. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN THE POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STRIKE ZONE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. 31/20Z HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING
FOR CONVECTION...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON IT FOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ AND SE NY IN AXIS OF
SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. CLOSER TO HOME...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BUT
THERE ARE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SNE SO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION 21-00Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALREADY NEAR 2" AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
2.25" TOWARD 00Z SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHING 40 KT IN THE WEST SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO A CONCERN IF
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A WEAKENED STATE TO MAKE
IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY WANES TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL
SOME SBCAPE AND HIGH KI VALUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE COLUMN
WILL WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE N LATE TONIGHT ACROSS N ZONES.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MINS 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN FARTHER
INLAND...BUT SEVERAL SITES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ALREADY
SOCKED IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO SUPPORT SOME SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS SO SCA
WILL CONTINUE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA BUT BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT SO SCA HERE AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC




000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNSET ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNSET ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 311957
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ AND SE NY IN AXIS OF
SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. CLOSER TO HOME...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BUT
THERE ARE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SNE SO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION 21-00Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALREADY NEAR 2" AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
2.25" TOWARD 00Z SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHING 40 KT IN THE WEST SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO A CONCERN IF
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A WEAKENED STATE TO MAKE
IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY WANES TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL
SOME SBCAPE AND HIGH KI VALUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE COLUMN
WILL WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE N LATE TONIGHT ACROSS N ZONES.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MINS 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP 20-00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WIND.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO SUPPORT SOME SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS SO SCA
WILL CONTINUE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA BUT BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT SO SCA HERE AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK
MARINE...KJC/BELK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311957
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ AND SE NY IN AXIS OF
SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. CLOSER TO HOME...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BUT
THERE ARE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SNE SO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION 21-00Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALREADY NEAR 2" AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
2.25" TOWARD 00Z SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHING 40 KT IN THE WEST SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO A CONCERN IF
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A WEAKENED STATE TO MAKE
IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY WANES TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL
SOME SBCAPE AND HIGH KI VALUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE COLUMN
WILL WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE N LATE TONIGHT ACROSS N ZONES.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MINS 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP 20-00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WIND.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO SUPPORT SOME SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS SO SCA
WILL CONTINUE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA BUT BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT SO SCA HERE AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK
MARINE...KJC/BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
159 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LOWER CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS SNE WHICH HAS KEPT
INSTABILITY IN CHECK SO FAR. TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KT. THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS SO STILL EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. EXPECTED
SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 SHOULD ALLOW SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HINTING AT LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION FIRING 21-00Z AS MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. DELAYED HIGHER POPS BY A
FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN/DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE THIS
MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
MOVING INTO SNE. ALSO SOME CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL NJ AND S OF
LONG ISLAND WHICH MAY BRING SOME BREAKS OF SUN TO THE REGION. THE
SKY COVER WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.25" BY 00Z. THIS IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL AND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE REACHING 70 MAKING FOR A VERY HUMID DAY. 850 TEMPS AROUND
17C BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL SO EXPECT
MAXES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT LESS
INSTABILITY IF NO SUNSHINE.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND
00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER
IF CAPES CAN EXCEED 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
MEAGER AROUND 5 C/KM WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS GIVEN ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME...BUT STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP 20-00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WIND.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...
WE EXPANDED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
EXPECTATION OF SOME G25 KT AFT 18Z INTO THIS EVENING AS MODEST LLJ
DEVELOPS.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS. THIS
LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THICKER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS STILL WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED MORE TOWARDS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THERE.

IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE ARE NO
LONGER IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 TO 6.0 DEG C/KM WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR IS TWO CAPS NOTED ON THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING...ONE AROUND 900
MB AND ANOTHER JUST ABOVE 700 MB. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
RATHER STRONG AT 40 KT...SO A ROGUE SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...OTHERWISE
MID 70S FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS. THIS
LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THICKER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS STILL WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED MORE TOWARDS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THERE.

IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE ARE NO
LONGER IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 TO 6.0 DEG C/KM WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR IS TWO CAPS NOTED ON THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING...ONE AROUND 900
MB AND ANOTHER JUST ABOVE 700 MB. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
RATHER STRONG AT 40 KT...SO A ROGUE SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...OTHERWISE
MID 70S FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 311432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN/DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE THIS
MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
MOVING INTO SNE. ALSO SOME CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL NJ AND S OF
LONG ISLAND WHICH MAY BRING SOME BREAKS OF SUN TO THE REGION. THE
SKY COVER WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.25" BY 00Z. THIS IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL AND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE REACHING 70 MAKING FOR A VERY HUMID DAY. 850 TEMPS AROUND
17C BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL SO EXPECT
MAXES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT LESS
INSTABILITY IF NO SUNSHINE.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND
00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER
IF CAPES CAN EXCEED 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
MEAGER AROUND 5 C/KM WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS GIVEN ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME...BUT STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

1030 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. THESE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TREND WILL BE FOR LIFTING CIGS TO VFR.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER 18-19Z WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...
WE EXPANDED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
EXPECTATION OF SOME G25 KT AFT 18Z INTO THIS EVENING AS MODEST LLJ
DEVELOPS.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN/DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE THIS
MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
MOVING INTO SNE. ALSO SOME CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL NJ AND S OF
LONG ISLAND WHICH MAY BRING SOME BREAKS OF SUN TO THE REGION. THE
SKY COVER WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.25" BY 00Z. THIS IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL AND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE REACHING 70 MAKING FOR A VERY HUMID DAY. 850 TEMPS AROUND
17C BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL SO EXPECT
MAXES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT LESS
INSTABILITY IF NO SUNSHINE.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND
00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER
IF CAPES CAN EXCEED 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
MEAGER AROUND 5 C/KM WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS GIVEN ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME...BUT STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

1030 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. THESE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TREND WILL BE FOR LIFTING CIGS TO VFR.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER 18-19Z WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...
WE EXPANDED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
EXPECTATION OF SOME G25 KT AFT 18Z INTO THIS EVENING AS MODEST LLJ
DEVELOPS.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...
THIN LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP ACROSS S NH/NE AND
CENTRAL MA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 11Z.
DEWPTS GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW DEGS HIGHER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND...AS AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES SLOWLY
E ON NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. ALSO NOTING AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS S NJ/SE PA THAT MAY TRY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW
WIND FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT
LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES...SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z-15Z THEN MAINLY VFR. MVFR
MAY LINGER ALONG E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE DAY AS
PRECIP APPROACHES THAT AREA. DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH
BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS
AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...
THIN LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP ACROSS S NH/NE AND
CENTRAL MA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 11Z.
DEWPTS GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW DEGS HIGHER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND...AS AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES SLOWLY
E ON NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. ALSO NOTING AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS S NJ/SE PA THAT MAY TRY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW
WIND FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT
LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES...SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z-15Z THEN MAINLY VFR. MVFR
MAY LINGER ALONG E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE DAY AS
PRECIP APPROACHES THAT AREA. DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH
BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS
AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...
THIN LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP ACROSS S NH/NE AND
CENTRAL MA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 11Z.
DEWPTS GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW DEGS HIGHER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND...AS AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES SLOWLY
E ON NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. ALSO NOTING AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS S NJ/SE PA THAT MAY TRY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW
WIND FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT
LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES...SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z-15Z THEN MAINLY VFR. MVFR
MAY LINGER ALONG E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE DAY AS
PRECIP APPROACHES THAT AREA. DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH
BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS
AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...
THIN LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP ACROSS S NH/NE AND
CENTRAL MA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 11Z.
DEWPTS GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW DEGS HIGHER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND...AS AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES SLOWLY
E ON NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. ALSO NOTING AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS S NJ/SE PA THAT MAY TRY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW
WIND FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT
LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES...SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z-15Z THEN MAINLY VFR. MVFR
MAY LINGER ALONG E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE DAY AS
PRECIP APPROACHES THAT AREA. DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH
BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS
AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 311130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KBOX 310859
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
459 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310859
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
459 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 310848
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SHOWERS WERE FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COVERING THE OUR
ENTIRE PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACK PORTION BY DAYBREAK.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW PRETTY MUCH OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH...IF AT ALL AS A
BREEZE CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH...WHICH IS TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY
NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE COLD FRONT...TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH
THAT WAS PULLING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME TALL
ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL EVERYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE COOLER AT
ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. COMBINE  THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE WARM.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE MIGHT STILL
BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE CAPITAL
REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310848
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SHOWERS WERE FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COVERING THE OUR
ENTIRE PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACK PORTION BY DAYBREAK.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW PRETTY MUCH OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH...IF AT ALL AS A
BREEZE CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH...WHICH IS TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY
NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE COLD FRONT...TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH
THAT WAS PULLING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME TALL
ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL EVERYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE COOLER AT
ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. COMBINE  THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE WARM.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE MIGHT STILL
BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE CAPITAL
REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KBOX 310750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310709
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
309 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO AIRMASS
CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER
70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY SHOULD LOWER LATER
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310709
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
309 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO AIRMASS
CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER
70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY SHOULD LOWER LATER
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 310624
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS













000
FXUS61 KALY 310624
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KBOX 310218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BRINGS SOUTH WINDS TO NEW ENGLAND. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED
ON LABOR DAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT/RI
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER
TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE WITH VALUES EITHER SIDE OF 60. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S HAVE REACHED WESTERN NY THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. THE INFLOW OF MOIST AIR...OVER
THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER US RIGHT NOW...WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW BUT COULD BRING SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AND TRENDING HIGHER...EXPECT MIN SFC
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...VFR TO START. INCREASING SKY COVER WITH CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AFTER 2 AM.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY SHOULD LOWER LATER
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BRINGS SOUTH WINDS TO NEW ENGLAND. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED
ON LABOR DAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT/RI
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER
TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE WITH VALUES EITHER SIDE OF 60. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S HAVE REACHED WESTERN NY THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. THE INFLOW OF MOIST AIR...OVER
THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER US RIGHT NOW...WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW BUT COULD BRING SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AND TRENDING HIGHER...EXPECT MIN SFC
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...VFR TO START. INCREASING SKY COVER WITH CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AFTER 2 AM.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY SHOULD LOWER LATER
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 310203
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING. LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST...AND ARE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALSO
COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF BUFFALO NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO WATERTOWN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ONLY VERY SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS STORMS FLIRT WITH THE
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 310203
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING. LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST...AND ARE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALSO
COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF BUFFALO NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO WATERTOWN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ONLY VERY SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS STORMS FLIRT WITH THE
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 302339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE LABOR DAY. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWS TUE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO NEAR-TERM FORECAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST. A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST
GFS FOR TOMORROW SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL HELICITY
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO...EVEN WITH A
LOT OF CLOUDINESS...COULD HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP AS
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL EVENING AHEAD WITH DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
DEW PTS. A MODEST S TO SE WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PA/VA/WVA. THIS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO WHILE DIURNAL STRATO-CU
WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH SUNSET...CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG.

GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS...INCREASING DEW PTS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY THIS EVENING BUT LOWERING
LATE IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE LABOR DAY. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWS TUE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO NEAR-TERM FORECAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST. A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST
GFS FOR TOMORROW SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL HELICITY
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO...EVEN WITH A
LOT OF CLOUDINESS...COULD HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP AS
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL EVENING AHEAD WITH DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
DEW PTS. A MODEST S TO SE WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PA/VA/WVA. THIS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO WHILE DIURNAL STRATO-CU
WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH SUNSET...CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG.

GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS...INCREASING DEW PTS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY THIS EVENING BUT LOWERING
LATE IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 704 PM...LOWER CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS LATEST HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODELS HAVE SOME
SHOWERS SCRAPE THE FAR NORTHWEST. AFTER THOSE SHOWERS GO BY TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING...MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS TILL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 704 PM...LOWER CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS LATEST HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODELS HAVE SOME
SHOWERS SCRAPE THE FAR NORTHWEST. AFTER THOSE SHOWERS GO BY TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING...MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS TILL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 302019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE LABOR DAY. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWS TUE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

TRANQUIL EVENING AHEAD WITH DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
DEW PTS. A MODEST S TO SE WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PA/VA/WVA. THIS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO WHILE DIURNAL STRATO-CU
WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH SUNSET...CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG.

GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS...INCREASING DEW PTS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN040-050...LESS CLOUDS EASTERN MA AND
RI. S TO SE WINDS 10-20 KT

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY THIS EVENING BUT LOWERING
LATE IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA/ROLLER
AVIATION...NOCERA/ROLLER
MARINE...NOCERA/ROLLER



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE LABOR DAY. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWS TUE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

TRANQUIL EVENING AHEAD WITH DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
DEW PTS. A MODEST S TO SE WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PA/VA/WVA. THIS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO WHILE DIURNAL STRATO-CU
WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH SUNSET...CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG.

GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS...INCREASING DEW PTS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN040-050...LESS CLOUDS EASTERN MA AND
RI. S TO SE WINDS 10-20 KT

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY THIS EVENING BUT LOWERING
LATE IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA/ROLLER
AVIATION...NOCERA/ROLLER
MARINE...NOCERA/ROLLER




000
FXUS61 KALY 302010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN NY IS NOT MOVING...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IS ERODING A LITTLE. THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REST OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
APPROACH WESTERN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOUDL ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 302010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN NY IS NOT MOVING...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IS ERODING A LITTLE. THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REST OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
APPROACH WESTERN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOUDL ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 301757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10-20 MPH. STRATO-CU IS MORE ABUNDANT IN THE CT
RVR VLY BUT STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING THERE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS THESE DETAILS ARE ALREADY CAPTURED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN040-050...LESS CLOUDS EASTERN MA AND
RI. S TO SE WINDS 10-20 KT

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10-20 MPH. STRATO-CU IS MORE ABUNDANT IN THE CT
RVR VLY BUT STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING THERE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS THESE DETAILS ARE ALREADY CAPTURED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN040-050...LESS CLOUDS EASTERN MA AND
RI. S TO SE WINDS 10-20 KT

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 301747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







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