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000
FXUS61 KBOX 270309
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1109 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday. A cool front
will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry seasonable
weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring more
showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1035 PM Update...

Other than patchy high thin clouds across portions of southern New
England this evening, skies were mainly clear. Noting some more
mid and high clouds working SE out of N NY and VT in the NW flow
aloft, which will tend to thin out as they move into the region
overnight.

Dewpts have been slowly rising across most of the region, mainly
in the mid 50s to around 60, expect a bit lower across interior SE
Mass though they are rising there as well. Do not see fog
developing yet, but will be monitoring as temp/dewpt spreads
tending to lower mainly along the S coast. Temps at 02Z were in
the lower-mid 60s across most of E Mass into RI, ranging to the
lower 70s in the CT valley into N central Mass.

Overnight forecast pretty much on track. Have updated near term
information to bring current. Will continue to monitor as dewpts
continue to slowly rise.

Previous discussion...

Stout dry inversion just above the surface beneath which S winds
continue to advect moisture N. Surface dewpoints have risen
slightly and are expected to continue to do so overnight. Coupled
with mostly clear conditions, expect another round of radiational
cooling. Temperatures overnight won`t drop as low as they did
during the early morning hours Sunday, but still low enough such
that there is the threat of patchy ground fog or stratus. Focus
across E CT into W RI. Perhaps even Southeast MA where radiational
cooling is most favorable. Lows falling down into the mid 50s.
Elsewhere upper 50s with urban centers in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Monday...

Pre-frontal trough will push through the Great Lakes region
resulting in southwest flow across southern New England. Offshore
mid-level low will stall the trough keeping Monday mostly dry.
Clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the afternoon
hours. Due to increasing pressure gradient, southwest flow will
increase aloft. Appears mixing will reach up to 900 mb which would
allow for gusts near 20-25 mph. Otherwise temperatures will warm
into low to mid 80s across the area, cooler conditions along the
South Coast due to onshore flow. Can`t rule out upper 80s to near
90s across the Merrimack Valley due to good mixing in southwest
flow.

Monday Night...

The pre-frontal trough will slowly approach from the west but
weaken on Monday night. Very weak forcing and limited upper level
dynamics as this system moves through. Still plenty of moisture to
work with so expect isolated to scattered showers overnight.
Appears that there will be some elevated instability, so cannot
rule out a rumble of thunder.

Aside from the convection potential, higher dewpoints will spill
into the region overnight. This will result in muggier conditions,
and the potential for fog development. Overnight temps will only
drop into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday Night
 - Interior wet weather for Wednesday as cooler air settles in
 - Dry, seasonable, comfortable Thursday and Friday
 - Another shot of wet weather for Saturday
 - Looking to return dry and seasonable beginning next Sunday

*/ DISCUSSION...

Forecast solutions seemingly coming into consensus. An analysis
of atmospheric teleconnections, leaning with low pressure
maintaining over the Gulf of Alaska with ridging over the W and
Central CONUS. Further downstream troughing prevails from the
Hudson Bay region of Canada down into the Great Lakes. New England
for the most part resides along the E periphery of the trough up
against the Atlantic ridge. It is through the troughing pattern
we`ll see several waves of activity bringing chances of wet
weather throughout the long-term forecast period. Still believe
these N impulses will interact with the sub-tropical flow round
the Atlantic ridge. Setups can vary as to whether deeper moisture
is drawn N, or rather a squeeze play setup evolves between the two
areas of disturbed weather drawing a region of higher heights and
drier weather, a trend that has been seen extending SW to NE from
Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, across the Gulf of Maine and into SE
New England. Focusing on a broader view evaluating synoptics
parent with moisture, lift and instability should it be present.
Closely following ensemble means as well as probabilistics with
this forecast. Overall the forecast does not put an end to the
rainfall deficits, hardly, but it is welcoming.

Expect the first wave Tuesday into Wednesday. Increasing moisture
from the S beneath mid level vortex energy sweeping N/E across New
England and diffluence aloft, a fair amount of forcing ahead of an
initial pre-frontal boundary Tuesday met up with a cool front for
Tuesday night before exiting E early Wednesday will yield a
prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms. Column moistens
with pwats up to 1.5 inches as the profile becomes conditionally
unstable yielding a measure of instability especially if there`s
any diurnal heating. Still a challenge to nail down cloud cover as
we could be dealing with marine stratus / fog in addition. Perhaps
some initial activity early Tuesday, remnants from Monday along
the pre-frontal boundary. Otherwise as ingredients come together
ahead of the cool front out of Upstate NY / PA should see chance
to likely PoPs N/W, lesser S/E under the influence of continuing
subsidence and drier air. This changes into Tuesday night as the
environment shifts N/E. Big question is whether offshore sub-
tropical moisture becomes involved or whether SE New England
remains in a squeeze play as outlined earlier.

Following closely with ensemble probabilistics and consensus of the
forecast guidance. Heavier rainfall amounts forecast N/W around half
an inch with lesser S/E. Not a soaker and not one that`ll put an end
to the drought-like conditions. Will keep shower and thunderstorm
wording similar throughout the sweep of the cool front behind which
for Wednesday cooler air follows and lapse rates steepen. An
environment beneath continued cyclonic flow and additional mid
level energy, diurnally-forced convection is expected though a
greater probability further N beneath the crux of the cold pool
and closer to stronger dynamics, this in addition to orographic
influences. Chance PoPs mainly N/E of the MA-CT border.

UPDATE: 26.12z EC has slowed the cool frontal progression as was
the case with yesterday`s model runs. 26.12z UKMET is not that far
off from the EC. Some handling challenges with mid level vortex
energy lifting N/E through the timeframe. A time difference of
6-12 hours between model solutions. Will linger activity into
Wednesday but looks to clear out into Thursday.

For Thursday and Friday, expect a quiet forecast period.
Seasonably dry weather, comfortable with low humidity. Initial N/W
flow Thursday reverts S into Friday ahead of disturbed weather for
the weekend. Will see increasing humidity and dewpoints Friday
night into Saturday morning. Could see some emerging issues with
marine stratus and fog.

Over the weekend, placing most of the emphasis on Saturday.
Strong low over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Cyclonic flow
through which jet dynamics and mid level energy promote an
environment of decent forcing, pulling cooler air S the leading
edge of which becomes a focus for showers and thunderstorms across
the NE CONUS. Increasing moisture along and ahead with the
atmospheric profile becoming conditionally unstable. Instability
grows with any diurnal heating. Overall synoptics seem stretched
within the flow and not sharp, thus leaning more of a daytime
event supported by diurnal heating. Will keep similar shower and
thunderstorm wording within PoPs.

Thereafter for Sunday into early next week, going with a dry and
seasonable forecast beneath continued cyclonic flow and a cooler
airmass across the region. Appearing dry as high pressure sweeps
the NE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

0230Z Update...

Overnight...High Confidence. Mainly VFR. Low chance for IFR-LIFR
conditions in patchy ground fog and/or low clouds across portions
of W CT/W RI into SE MA. Light S winds.

Monday...High Confidence. VFR. Any IFR-LIFR fog / cigs erode by
13Z. Expect S-SW winds gradually increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt
during the afternoon.

Monday night...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR. Conditions could deteriorate as SHRA and isolated
TSRA move into W New England. IFR-LIFR stratus and fog could
develop ahead of approaching showers over S/E portions of New
England.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. S winds increase Monday, gusting up
to around 25 kts during the afternoon hours

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Monday night.
May reside just to the S/E.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

SHRA and TSRA. Low end VFR / MVFR during the day. MVFR / IFR during
the evening periods. May be contending with LIFR marine stratus
along the S coast as well. TEMPO lower conditions with any RA /
TSRA. S winds ahead with potential gusts up to 20 kts at times.
Clearing out Wednesday as winds back W though there is a chance of
additional SHRA / TSRA activity across the N/W interior with TEMPO
MVFR / IFR.

Thursday into Friday...Moderate confidence.

VFR. N/W winds Thursday turning out of the S into Friday. SCT to BKN
low-end VFR cigs possible during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

1030 pm update...No changes to overnight forecast.

Overnight...High Confidence. Winds and seas below small craft
criteria.

Monday into Monday night...Moderate Confidence. High pressure
moving offshore as system approaches from the west. Near shore
winds will gust close to 25 kts during the afternoon tomorrow. SCA
may be needed but confidence is low. Increase LLJ across northern
waters will result in seas building to 5 feet. SCA will continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms moving into the waters late Tuesday on
through Wednesday morning associated with a sweeping cool front.
Ahead of this likely to see S winds with gusts up to 20 kts. Some
marine stratus / fog possible with visibility restrictions, focusing
on the S/SE waters. Potentially soupy. With cool frontal passage
during the early half of Wednesday, winds back W and conditions
should improve. Waves up to 5 feet.

Thursday into Friday...Moderate confidence.

Good boating weather. N/W winds but not expected to be gusty behind
the front. Wave action diminishing rather quick. Winds veering out
of the S into Friday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM Monday to 2
     AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell/EVT
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT



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000
FXUS61 KALY 270048
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
848 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek,
with dry seasonable weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal clouds have dissipating but mid and clouds approaching
with a shearing 500 hpa short wv have moved into western NYS and
the St Lawrence Vly. These will push south across the state
overnight slowing the temp fall as incrg gradient and South
breeze also hold lows in the 60s. Further west over Ontario -shra
have formed assoc with cdfnt. These at most will send mid lvl
convective debris our way in flow. An isolated shower could
approach the western Mohawk Valley toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A cold front will approach the region Monday...bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly through 18 UTC Monday. MVFR
conds in -shra and cigs will incr in coverage Mon aftn.

Overnight with the incrg wind gradient a South wind will incr to
5 to 10 kts...particularly in N-S valleys. The exception to VFR
conds will be some patchy radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog in deep
valleys. Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning
with cirrus clouds around.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek, with
dry seasonable weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Snyder/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 270048
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
848 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek,
with dry seasonable weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal clouds have dissipating but mid and clouds approaching
with a shearing 500 hpa short wv have moved into western NYS and
the St Lawrence Vly. These will push south across the state
overnight slowing the temp fall as incrg gradient and South
breeze also hold lows in the 60s. Further west over Ontario -shra
have formed assoc with cdfnt. These at most will send mid lvl
convective debris our way in flow. An isolated shower could
approach the western Mohawk Valley toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A cold front will approach the region Monday...bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly through 18 UTC Monday. MVFR
conds in -shra and cigs will incr in coverage Mon aftn.

Overnight with the incrg wind gradient a South wind will incr to
5 to 10 kts...particularly in N-S valleys. The exception to VFR
conds will be some patchy radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog in deep
valleys. Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning
with cirrus clouds around.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek, with
dry seasonable weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Snyder/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262324
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
724 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure remains in control through Monday. A cool front
will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry seasonable
weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring more
showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

730 pm update...

Upper level ridge remains over the region tonight as surface high
pressure continues to move offshore. Stout dry inversion just above
the surface beneath which S winds continue to advect moisture N.
Surface dewpoints have risen slightly and are expected to continue
to do so overnight. Coupled with mostly clear conditions, expect
another round of radiational cooling. Temperatures overnight won`t
drop as low as they did during the early morning hours Sunday, but
still low enough such that there is the threat of patchy ground
fog or stratus. Focus across E CT into W RI. Perhaps even Southeast
MA where radiational cooling is most favorable. Lows falling down
into the mid 50s. Elsewhere upper 50s with urban centers in the
low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Monday...

Pre-frontal trough will push through the Great Lakes region
resulting in southwest flow across southern New England. Offshore
mid-level low will stall the trough keeping Monday mostly dry.
Clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the afternoon
hours. Due to increasing pressure gradient, southwest flow will
increase aloft. Appears mixing will reach up to 900 mb which would
allow for gusts near 20-25 mph. Otherwise temperatures will warm
into low to mid 80s across the area, cooler conditions along the
South Coast due to onshore flow. Can`t rule out upper 80s to near
90s across the Merrimack Valley due to good mixing in southwest
flow.

Monday Night...

The pre-frontal trough will slowly approach from the west but weaken
on Monday night. Very weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics
as this system moves through. Still plenty of moisture to work with
so expect isolated to scattered showers overnight. Appears that
there will be some elevated instability, so cannot rule out a rumble
of thunder.

Aside from the convection potential, higher dewpoints will spill
into the region overnight. This will result in muggier conditions,
and the potential for fog development. Overnight temps will only
drop into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday Night
 - Interior wet weather for Wednesday as cooler air settles in
 - Dry, seasonable, comfortable Thursday and Friday
 - Another shot of wet weather for Saturday
 - Looking to return dry and seasonable beginning next Sunday

*/ DISCUSSION...

Forecast solutions seemingly coming into consensus. An analysis of
atmospheric teleconnections, leaning with low pressure maintaining
over the Gulf of Alaska with ridging over the W and Central CONUS.
Further downstream troughing prevails from the Hudson Bay region of
Canada down into the Great Lakes. New England for the most part
resides along the E periphery of the trough up against the Atlantic
ridge. It is through the troughing pattern we`ll see several waves
of activity bringing chances of wet weather throughout the long-term
forecast period. Still believe these N impulses will interact with
the sub-tropical flow round the Atlantic ridge. Setups can vary as
to whether deeper moisture is drawn N, or rather a squeeze play
setup evolves between the two areas of disturbed weather drawing a
region of higher heights and drier weather, a trend that has been
seen extending SW to NE from Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, across the
Gulf of Maine and into SE New England. Focusing on a broader view
evaluating synoptics parent with moisture, lift and instability
should it be present. Closely following ensemble means as well as
probabilistics with this forecast. Overall the forecast does not
put an end to the rainfall deficits, hardly, but it is welcoming.

Expect the first wave Tuesday into Wednesday. Increasing moisture
from the S beneath mid level vortex energy sweeping N/E across New
England and diffluence aloft, a fair amount of forcing ahead of an
initial pre-frontal boundary Tuesday met up with a cool front for
Tuesday night before exiting E early Wednesday will yield a prolonged
period of showers and thunderstorms. Column moistens with pwats up
to 1.5 inches as the profile becomes conditionally unstable yielding
a measure of instability especially if there`s any diurnal heating.
Still a challenge to nail down cloud cover as we could be dealing
with marine stratus / fog in addition. Perhaps some initial activity
early Tuesday, remnants from Monday along the pre-frontal boundary.
Otherwise as ingredients come together ahead of the cool front out
of Upstate NY / PA should see chance to likely PoPs N/W, lesser S/E
under the influence of continuing subsidence and drier air. This
changes into Tuesday night as the environment shifts N/E. Big
question is whether offshore sub-tropical moisture becomes involved
or whether SE New England remains in a squeeze play as outlined
earlier.

Following closely with ensemble probabilistics and consensus of the
forecast guidance. Heavier rainfall amounts forecast N/W around half
an inch with lesser S/E. Not a soaker and not one that`ll put an end
to the drought-like conditions. Will keep shower and thunderstorm
wording similar throughout the sweep of the cool front behind which
for Wednesday cooler air follows and lapse rates steepen. An
environment beneath continued cyclonic flow and additional mid level
energy, diurnally-forced convection is expected though a greater
probability further N beneath the crux of the cold pool and closer
to stronger dynamics, this in addition to orographic influences.
Chance PoPs mainly N/E of the MA-CT border.

UPDATE: 26.12z EC has slowed the cool frontal progression as was the
case with yesterday`s model runs. 26.12z UKMET is not that far off
from the EC. Some handling challenges with mid level vortex energy
lifting N/E through the timeframe. A time difference of 6-12 hours
between model solutions. Will linger activity into Wednesday but
looks to clear out into Thursday.

For Thursday and Friday, expect a quiet forecast period. Seasonably
dry weather, comfortable with low humidity. Initial N/W flow
Thursday reverts S into Friday ahead of disturbed weather for the
weekend. Will see increasing humidity and dewpoints Friday night
into Saturday morning. Could see some emerging issues with marine
stratus and fog.

Over the weekend, placing most of the emphasis on Saturday. Strong
low over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Cyclonic flow through
which jet dynamics and mid level energy promote an environment of
decent forcing, pulling cooler air S the leading edge of which
becomes a focus for showers and thunderstorms across the NE CONUS.
Increasing moisture along and ahead with the atmospheric profile
becoming conditionally unstable. Instability grows with any diurnal
heating. Overall synoptics seem stretched within the flow and not
sharp, thus leaning more of a daytime event supported by diurnal
heating. Will keep similar shower and thunderstorm wording within
PoPs.

Thereafter for Sunday into early next week, going with a dry and
seasonable forecast beneath continued cyclonic flow and a cooler
airmass across the region. Appearing dry as high pressure sweeps the
NE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

0z update...

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR though watching E CT and W RI, perhaps even SE MA for IFR-LIFR
potential with patchy ground fog or stratus. Light S winds.

Monday...High Confidence.

VFR. Any IFR-LIFR fog / cigs quickly eroding. Expect S/SW winds
gradually increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt during the afternoon.

Monday night...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR. Conditions could deteriorate as SHRA and isolated TSRA
move into W New England. IFR-LIFR stratus and fog could develop
ahead of approaching showers over S/E portions of New England.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. S winds increase Monday, gusting up
to around 25 kts during the afternoon hours

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Monday night.
May reside just to the S/E.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

SHRA and TSRA. Low end VFR / MVFR during the day. MVFR / IFR during
the evening periods. May be contending with LIFR marine stratus
along the S coast as well. TEMPO lower conditions with any RA /
TSRA. S winds ahead with potential gusts up to 20 kts at times.
Clearing out Wednesday as winds back W though there is a chance of
additional SHRA / TSRA activity across the N/W interior with TEMPO
MVFR / IFR.

Thursday into Friday...Moderate confidence.

VFR. N/W winds Thursday turning out of the S into Friday. SCT to BKN
low-end VFR cigs possible during the day.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

730 pm update...no major changes to the forecast.

Tonight...High Confidence. Quiet boating weather tonight.

Monday into Monday night...Moderate Confidence. High pressure
moving offshore as system approaches from the west. Near shore
winds will gust close to 25 kts during the afternoon tomorrow. SCA
may be needed but confidence is low. Increase LLJ across northern
waters will result in seas building to 5 feet. SCA will continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms moving into the waters late Tuesday on
through Wednesday morning associated with a sweeping cool front.
Ahead of this likely to see S winds with gusts up to 20 kts. Some
marine stratus / fog possible with visibility restrictions, focusing
on the S/SE waters. Potentially soupy. With cool frontal passage
during the early half of Wednesday, winds back W and conditions
should improve. Waves up to 5 feet.

Thursday into Friday...Moderate confidence.

Good boating weather. N/W winds but not expected to be gusty behind
the front. Wave action diminishing rather quick. Winds veering out
of the S into Friday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM Monday to 2
     AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262324
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
724 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure remains in control through Monday. A cool front
will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry seasonable
weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring more
showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

730 pm update...

Upper level ridge remains over the region tonight as surface high
pressure continues to move offshore. Stout dry inversion just above
the surface beneath which S winds continue to advect moisture N.
Surface dewpoints have risen slightly and are expected to continue
to do so overnight. Coupled with mostly clear conditions, expect
another round of radiational cooling. Temperatures overnight won`t
drop as low as they did during the early morning hours Sunday, but
still low enough such that there is the threat of patchy ground
fog or stratus. Focus across E CT into W RI. Perhaps even Southeast
MA where radiational cooling is most favorable. Lows falling down
into the mid 50s. Elsewhere upper 50s with urban centers in the
low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Monday...

Pre-frontal trough will push through the Great Lakes region
resulting in southwest flow across southern New England. Offshore
mid-level low will stall the trough keeping Monday mostly dry.
Clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the afternoon
hours. Due to increasing pressure gradient, southwest flow will
increase aloft. Appears mixing will reach up to 900 mb which would
allow for gusts near 20-25 mph. Otherwise temperatures will warm
into low to mid 80s across the area, cooler conditions along the
South Coast due to onshore flow. Can`t rule out upper 80s to near
90s across the Merrimack Valley due to good mixing in southwest
flow.

Monday Night...

The pre-frontal trough will slowly approach from the west but weaken
on Monday night. Very weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics
as this system moves through. Still plenty of moisture to work with
so expect isolated to scattered showers overnight. Appears that
there will be some elevated instability, so cannot rule out a rumble
of thunder.

Aside from the convection potential, higher dewpoints will spill
into the region overnight. This will result in muggier conditions,
and the potential for fog development. Overnight temps will only
drop into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday Night
 - Interior wet weather for Wednesday as cooler air settles in
 - Dry, seasonable, comfortable Thursday and Friday
 - Another shot of wet weather for Saturday
 - Looking to return dry and seasonable beginning next Sunday

*/ DISCUSSION...

Forecast solutions seemingly coming into consensus. An analysis of
atmospheric teleconnections, leaning with low pressure maintaining
over the Gulf of Alaska with ridging over the W and Central CONUS.
Further downstream troughing prevails from the Hudson Bay region of
Canada down into the Great Lakes. New England for the most part
resides along the E periphery of the trough up against the Atlantic
ridge. It is through the troughing pattern we`ll see several waves
of activity bringing chances of wet weather throughout the long-term
forecast period. Still believe these N impulses will interact with
the sub-tropical flow round the Atlantic ridge. Setups can vary as
to whether deeper moisture is drawn N, or rather a squeeze play
setup evolves between the two areas of disturbed weather drawing a
region of higher heights and drier weather, a trend that has been
seen extending SW to NE from Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, across the
Gulf of Maine and into SE New England. Focusing on a broader view
evaluating synoptics parent with moisture, lift and instability
should it be present. Closely following ensemble means as well as
probabilistics with this forecast. Overall the forecast does not
put an end to the rainfall deficits, hardly, but it is welcoming.

Expect the first wave Tuesday into Wednesday. Increasing moisture
from the S beneath mid level vortex energy sweeping N/E across New
England and diffluence aloft, a fair amount of forcing ahead of an
initial pre-frontal boundary Tuesday met up with a cool front for
Tuesday night before exiting E early Wednesday will yield a prolonged
period of showers and thunderstorms. Column moistens with pwats up
to 1.5 inches as the profile becomes conditionally unstable yielding
a measure of instability especially if there`s any diurnal heating.
Still a challenge to nail down cloud cover as we could be dealing
with marine stratus / fog in addition. Perhaps some initial activity
early Tuesday, remnants from Monday along the pre-frontal boundary.
Otherwise as ingredients come together ahead of the cool front out
of Upstate NY / PA should see chance to likely PoPs N/W, lesser S/E
under the influence of continuing subsidence and drier air. This
changes into Tuesday night as the environment shifts N/E. Big
question is whether offshore sub-tropical moisture becomes involved
or whether SE New England remains in a squeeze play as outlined
earlier.

Following closely with ensemble probabilistics and consensus of the
forecast guidance. Heavier rainfall amounts forecast N/W around half
an inch with lesser S/E. Not a soaker and not one that`ll put an end
to the drought-like conditions. Will keep shower and thunderstorm
wording similar throughout the sweep of the cool front behind which
for Wednesday cooler air follows and lapse rates steepen. An
environment beneath continued cyclonic flow and additional mid level
energy, diurnally-forced convection is expected though a greater
probability further N beneath the crux of the cold pool and closer
to stronger dynamics, this in addition to orographic influences.
Chance PoPs mainly N/E of the MA-CT border.

UPDATE: 26.12z EC has slowed the cool frontal progression as was the
case with yesterday`s model runs. 26.12z UKMET is not that far off
from the EC. Some handling challenges with mid level vortex energy
lifting N/E through the timeframe. A time difference of 6-12 hours
between model solutions. Will linger activity into Wednesday but
looks to clear out into Thursday.

For Thursday and Friday, expect a quiet forecast period. Seasonably
dry weather, comfortable with low humidity. Initial N/W flow
Thursday reverts S into Friday ahead of disturbed weather for the
weekend. Will see increasing humidity and dewpoints Friday night
into Saturday morning. Could see some emerging issues with marine
stratus and fog.

Over the weekend, placing most of the emphasis on Saturday. Strong
low over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Cyclonic flow through
which jet dynamics and mid level energy promote an environment of
decent forcing, pulling cooler air S the leading edge of which
becomes a focus for showers and thunderstorms across the NE CONUS.
Increasing moisture along and ahead with the atmospheric profile
becoming conditionally unstable. Instability grows with any diurnal
heating. Overall synoptics seem stretched within the flow and not
sharp, thus leaning more of a daytime event supported by diurnal
heating. Will keep similar shower and thunderstorm wording within
PoPs.

Thereafter for Sunday into early next week, going with a dry and
seasonable forecast beneath continued cyclonic flow and a cooler
airmass across the region. Appearing dry as high pressure sweeps the
NE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

0z update...

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR though watching E CT and W RI, perhaps even SE MA for IFR-LIFR
potential with patchy ground fog or stratus. Light S winds.

Monday...High Confidence.

VFR. Any IFR-LIFR fog / cigs quickly eroding. Expect S/SW winds
gradually increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt during the afternoon.

Monday night...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR. Conditions could deteriorate as SHRA and isolated TSRA
move into W New England. IFR-LIFR stratus and fog could develop
ahead of approaching showers over S/E portions of New England.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. S winds increase Monday, gusting up
to around 25 kts during the afternoon hours

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Monday night.
May reside just to the S/E.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

SHRA and TSRA. Low end VFR / MVFR during the day. MVFR / IFR during
the evening periods. May be contending with LIFR marine stratus
along the S coast as well. TEMPO lower conditions with any RA /
TSRA. S winds ahead with potential gusts up to 20 kts at times.
Clearing out Wednesday as winds back W though there is a chance of
additional SHRA / TSRA activity across the N/W interior with TEMPO
MVFR / IFR.

Thursday into Friday...Moderate confidence.

VFR. N/W winds Thursday turning out of the S into Friday. SCT to BKN
low-end VFR cigs possible during the day.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

730 pm update...no major changes to the forecast.

Tonight...High Confidence. Quiet boating weather tonight.

Monday into Monday night...Moderate Confidence. High pressure
moving offshore as system approaches from the west. Near shore
winds will gust close to 25 kts during the afternoon tomorrow. SCA
may be needed but confidence is low. Increase LLJ across northern
waters will result in seas building to 5 feet. SCA will continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms moving into the waters late Tuesday on
through Wednesday morning associated with a sweeping cool front.
Ahead of this likely to see S winds with gusts up to 20 kts. Some
marine stratus / fog possible with visibility restrictions, focusing
on the S/SE waters. Potentially soupy. With cool frontal passage
during the early half of Wednesday, winds back W and conditions
should improve. Waves up to 5 feet.

Thursday into Friday...Moderate confidence.

Good boating weather. N/W winds but not expected to be gusty behind
the front. Wave action diminishing rather quick. Winds veering out
of the S into Friday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM Monday to 2
     AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KALY 262052
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
452 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal heating clouds are dissipating but a band of mid and high
clouds in the Great Lakes is approaching. It is a fairly narrow
band of clouds but more clouds may form...depending on what
convection can form in the Great Lakes and OH Valley. So...some
increase to cloud cover toward daybreak...and south winds should
be steady and light all night in many areas...especially in the
Hudson Valley. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s..around 60 in
higher terrain. An isolated shower could approach the western
Mohawk Valley toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slowly move east of New England
this afternoon into tomorrow. A cold front will be approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada tomorrow
afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly the next 24 hrs ending 18Z/MON
at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception will be some patchy
radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog at KGFL/KPSF. Mostly clear
skies...light to calm winds...and dewpt temps creeping up may
allow for this period of mist/fog from 06Z-12Z.

Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning with
cirrus clouds around.

The winds will be from south/southeast at 4-8 kts this
afternoon...and become light to calm at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF before
04Z/MON. The winds will increase to 8-10 kts at KALB due to the
nocturnal funneling effect up the Hudson River Valley. The winds
will be generally from the south at 5-10 kts late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 262021
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
421 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal heating clouds are dissipating but a band of mid and high
clouds in the Great Lakes is approaching. It is a fairly narrow
band of clouds but more clouds may form...depending on what
convection can form in the Great Lakes and OH Valley. So...some
increase to cloud cover toward daybreak...and south winds should
be steady and light all night in many areas...especially in the
Hudson Valley. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s..around 60 in
higher terrain. An isolated shower could approach the western
Mohawk Valley toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slowly move east of New England
this afternoon into tomorrow. A cold front will be approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada tomorrow
afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly the next 24 hrs ending 18Z/MON
at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception will be some patchy
radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog at KGFL/KPSF. Mostly clear
skies...light to calm winds...and dewpt temps creeping up may
allow for this period of mist/fog from 06Z-12Z.

Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning with
cirrus clouds around.

The winds will be from south/southeast at 4-8 kts this
afternoon...and become light to calm at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF before
04Z/MON. The winds will increase to 8-10 kts at KALB due to the
nocturnal funneling effect up the Hudson River Valley. The winds
will be generally from the south at 5-10 kts late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261945
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
345 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday. A cold front
will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and possibly
some thunder Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring
more showers sometime Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

Surface high pressure continues to move offshore today. 850 mb temps
warmed near 15C today resulting in temps reaching the upper 80s with
a few locations near 90F. Diurnal CU that has developed will
dissipate by early evening as heating is lost.  Anticipate sea
breeze to washout as well around 23/00Z. Aside from a few minor
updates the overall trend in the forecast remains on track for this
afternoon.

TONIGHT...

Upper level ridge remains over the region tonight as surface high
pressure continues to move offshore. Light southerly flow will
continue overnight and with mostly clear skies, anticipate another
round of radiational cooling. Temps won`t drop as far as they did
early this morning as dewpoints are higher then previous days.
Overnight lows will range into the mid to upper 50s, with low 60s
for the metro regions of PVD/BOS. May see patchy ground fog in low-
lying regions prior to dawn as temp/dewpoint spread will be load.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Tomorrow...

Pre-frontal trough will push through the Great Lakes region
resulting in southwest flow across southern New England. Offshore
mid-level low will stall the trough keeping Monday mostly dry.
Clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the afternoon
hours. Due to increasing pressure gradient, southwest flow will
increase aloft. Appears mixing will reach up to 900 mb which would
allow for gusts near 20-25 mph. Otherwise temperatures will warm
into low to mid 80s across the area, cooler conditions along the
South Coast due to onshore flow. Can`t rule out upper 80s to near
90s across the Merrimack Valley due to good mixing in southwest
flow.

Tomorrow Night...

The pre-frontal trough will slowly approach from the west but weaken
on Monday night. Very weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics
as this system moves through. Still plenty of moisture to work with
so expect isolated to scattered showers overnight. Appears that
there will be some elevated instability, so cannot rule out a rumble
of thunder.

Aside from the convection potential, higher dewpoints will spill
into the region overnight. This will result in muggier conditions,
and the potential for fog development. Overnight temps will only
drop into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday Night
 - Interior wet weather for Wednesday as cooler air settles in
 - Dry, seasonable, comfortable Thursday and Friday
 - Another shot of wet weather for Saturday
 - Looking to return dry and seasonable beginning next Sunday

*/ DISCUSSION...

Forecast solutions seemingly coming into consensus. An analysis of
atmospheric teleconnections, leaning with low pressure maintaining
over the Gulf of Alaska with ridging over the W and Central CONUS.
Further downstream troughing prevails from the Hudson Bay region of
Canada down into the Great Lakes. New England for the most part
resides along the E periphery of the trough up against the Atlantic
ridge. It is through the troughing pattern we`ll see several waves
of activity bringing chances of wet weather throughout the long-term
forecast period. Still believe these N impulses will interact with
the sub-tropical flow round the Atlantic ridge. Setups can vary as
to whether deeper moisture is drawn N, or rather a squeeze play
setup evolves between the two areas of disturbed weather drawing a
region of higher heights and drier weather, a trend that has been
seen extending SW to NE from Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, across the
Gulf of Maine and into SE New England. Focusing on a broader view
evaluating synoptics parent with moisture, lift and instability
should it be present. Closely following ensemble means as well as
probabilistics with this forecast. Overall the forecast does not
put an end to the rainfall deficits, hardly, but it is welcoming.

Expect the first wave Tuesday into Wednesday. Increasing moisture
from the S beneath mid level vortex energy sweeping N/E across New
England and diffluence aloft, a fair amount of forcing ahead of an
initial pre-frontal boundary Tuesday met up with a cool front for
Tuesday night before exiting E early Wednesday will yield a prolonged
period of showers and thunderstorms. Column moistens with pwats up
to 1.5 inches as the profile becomes conditionally unstable yielding
a measure of instability especially if there`s any diurnal heating.
Still a challenge to nail down cloud cover as we could be dealing
with marine stratus / fog in addition. Perhaps some initial activity
early Tuesday, remnants from Monday along the pre-frontal boundary.
Otherwise as ingredients come together ahead of the cool front out
of Upstate NY / PA should see chance to likely PoPs N/W, lesser S/E
under the influence of continuing subsidence and drier air. This
changes into Tuesday night as the environment shifts N/E. Big
question is whether offshore sub-tropical moisture becomes involved
or whether SE New England remains in a squeeze play as outlined
earlier.

Following closely with ensemble probabilistics and consensus of the
forecast guidance. Heavier rainfall amounts forecast N/W around half
an inch with lesser S/E. Not a soaker and not one that`ll put an end
to the drought-like conditions. Will keep shower and thunderstorm
wording similar throughout the sweep of the cool front behind which
for Wednesday cooler air follows and lapse rates steepen. An
environment beneath continued cyclonic flow and additional mid level
energy, diurnally-forced convection is expected though a greater
probability further N beneath the crux of the cold pool and closer
to stronger dynamics, this in addition to orographic influences.
Chance PoPs mainly N/E of the MA-CT border.

UPDATE: 26.12z EC has slowed the cool frontal progression as was the
case with yesterday`s model runs. 26.12z UKMET is not that far off
from the EC. Some handling challenges with mid level vortex energy
lifting N/E through the timeframe. A time difference of 6-12 hours
between model solutions. Will linger activity into Wednesday but
looks to clear out into Thursday.

For Thursday and Friday, expect a quiet forecast period. Seasonably
dry weather, comfortable with low humidity. Initial N/W flow
Thursday reverts S into Friday ahead of disturbed weather for the
weekend. Will see increasing humidity and dewpoints Friday night
into Saturday morning. Could see some emerging issues with marine
stratus and fog.

Over the weekend, placing most of the emphasis on Saturday. Strong
low over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Cyclonic flow through
which jet dynamics and mid level energy promote an environment of
decent forcing, pulling cooler air S the leading edge of which
becomes a focus for showers and thunderstorms across the NE CONUS.
Increasing moisture along and ahead with the atmospheric profile
becoming conditionally unstable. Instability grows with any diurnal
heating. Overall synoptics seem stretched within the flow and not
sharp, thus leaning more of a daytime event supported by diurnal
heating. Will keep similar shower and thunderstorm wording within
PoPs.

Thereafter for Sunday into early next week, going with a dry and
seasonable forecast beneath continued cyclonic flow and a cooler
airmass across the region. Appearing dry as high pressure sweeps the
NE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Through tonight...High Confidence. VFR. East Coast sea breeze
dissipating around 23z. May see brief pockets of MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS in patchy fog in low lying terminals.

Monday...High Confidence. VFR. Expect S-SW winds gradually
increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt Mon afternoon.

Monday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Conditions could
deteriorate as showers and iso thunder moves across western
terminals. Low-lying stratus and fog could develop ahead of
approaching showers.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. Sea breeze dissipates around 23z.
Southerly winds increase Mon, gusting up to around 25 kts Mon
afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

SHRA and TSRA. Low end VFR / MVFR during the day. MVFR / IFR during
the evening periods. May be contending with LIFR marine stratus
along the S coast as well. TEMPO lower conditions with any RA /
TSRA. S winds ahead with potential gusts up to 20 kts at times.
Clearing out Wednesday as winds back W though there is a chance of
additional SHRA / TSRA activity across the N/W interior with TEMPO
MVFR / IFR.

Thursday into Friday...Moderate confidence.

VFR. N/W winds Thursday turning out of the S into Friday. SCT to BKN
low-end VFR cigs possible during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Tonight...High Confidence. Quiet boating weather tonight.

Monday into Monday night...Moderate Confidence. High pressure
moving offshore as system approaches from the west. Near shore
winds will gust close to 25 kts during the afternoon tomorrow. SCA
may be needed but confidence is low. Increase LLJ across northern
waters will result in seas building to 5 feet. SCA will continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms moving into the waters late Tuesday on
through Wednesday morning associated with a sweeping cool front.
Ahead of this likely to see S winds with gusts up to 20 kts. Some
marine stratus / fog possible with visibility restrictions, focusing
on the S/SE waters. Potentially soupy. With cool frontal passage
during the early half of Wednesday, winds back W and conditions
should improve. Waves up to 5 feet.

Thursday into Friday...Moderate confidence.

Good boating weather. N/W winds but not expected to be gusty behind
the front. Wave action diminishing rather quick. Winds veering out
of the S into Friday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM Monday to 2
     AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261801
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
201 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build across the region today and
Monday, bringing very warm and dry conditions. A cold front will
slowly approach the region, bringing showers and possibly some
thunder Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the late week. Another cold front may
bring more showers sometime Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

Surface high pressure continues to move offshore today. 850 mb
temps warm between 15C to 17C today resulting in temps reaching
the upper 80s with a few locations near 90F. Locations along the
south coast remain cooler thanks to onshore wind. Sea breeze has
pushed through the MA east coastline. This has kept temperatures
cooler as well. Anticipate sea breeze to dissipate around 23/00z.
Aside from a few minor updates the overall trend in the forecast
remains on track for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...

Skies will start off mostly clear but, with the continued S-SW
wind flow, dewpoints will gradually increase overnight. Some
question as to whether a low level marine stratus cloud layer
will work into S coastal areas overnight, which would work as far
inland as NE CT/N RI into interior SE MA. Will need to monitor
this potential.

Expect overnight temps to not be quite as cool in some of the
normally chiller locales as they have been over the last few
nights. Readings should bottom out mainly in the 50s, but will
linger in the lower-mid 60s in the urban centers as well as over
the higher inland terrain with some radiational cooling still
occurring.

Monday...

Expect another warm day as S-SW winds begin to pick up. Will see
wind gusts up to 20-25 mph during the afternoon, mainly near the
E coast. Clouds will also be increasing from W-E well ahead of an
approaching cold front, mainly across central and western areas
during the afternoon. Any precip should hold off until sometime
Mon night. Temperatures will once again rebound to the mid-upper
80s inland and even along the immediate E coast with a more
offshore wind component, but holding in the 70s along the S
coast, Cape Cod and the islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. One shortwave rippling through the northern
flow moves from the Great Lakes into New England midweek and then
off through the Maritimes by Thursday. A second shortwave moves
down from Northern Canada midweek and moves into New England
during next weekend. Each shortwave will be driving a cold front
through our area, one midweek and the second next weekend.

The models continue to handle the midweek system differently. The
GFS continues to be the fast outlier of the group while the ECMWF
focuses on Wednesday. As noted yesterday the northern stream
shortwave digs over the Great Lakes Monday night and turns the
upper flow more SW-NE and parallel to the surface cold front. With
more push along the front rather than across it we would expect
the slowing shown by the ECMWF et al rather than the GFS solution.

Details...

Monday night through Wednesday...

As noted above, the upper flow over the Northeast USA turns
SW-NE as the first upper shortwave approaches. This supports a
slower approach of pcpn. We will continue with slight chance and
low-end chance pops in Western/Central MA and Northern CT but with
a feeling that most action will focus north and west of our area.

Cold front slowly moves east across Central and Eastern NY on
Tuesday. Jet dynamics and stability support most convection in that
area, perhaps eventually bleeding over into Southern New England.
Best chance for this would be in Western MA and adjacent CT. Low
level flow does bring in increasing dew points with values climbing
into the low to mid 60s.

Cold front crosses Southern New England late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This should provide an additional chance of
showers/thunder until fropa.

Thursday through Saturday...

High pressure builds over New England for Thursday and Friday.  This
should be a dry period with temps aloft in the mid teens C,
supporting surface max temps in the 80s. Second northern stream
shortwave approaches on Saturday and brings potential for showers
and possible thunder, although timing of a day seven feature carries
low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Through tonight...High Confidence. VFR. East Coast sea breeze
dissipating around 23z. May see brief pockets of MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS in patchy fog in low lying terminals.

Monday...High Confidence. VFR. Expect S-SW winds gradually
increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt Mon afternoon.

Monday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Conditions could
deteriorate as showers and iso thunder moves across western
terminals. Low-lying stratus and fog could develop ahead of
approaching showers.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. Sea breeze dissipates around 23z.
Southerly winds increase Mon, gusting up to around 25 kts Mon
afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Tuesday through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog. Also
brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly
Tuesday and Wednesday.  South to southwest surface winds will turn
West to northwest behind the front on Wednesday.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Today and tonight...Expect winds and seas below small craft
criteria as high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the
waters.

Monday...S winds will begin to increase, but should remain below
small craft criteria. However, seas on the eastern waters will
build up to around 5 ft by Monday afternoon, so have issued a
Small Craft for Hazardous Seas on the eastern outer waters, mainly
N of Boston Harbor to Cape Ann.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Seas of 5 feet may linger east of Cape Ann Monday night, driven
by southerly winds gusting near 20 knots. The Small Craft Advisory
for Seas may need to be extended much of the night.

South winds Tuesday will continue to gust near 20 knots. A cold
front moves across the waters Wednesday, which will turn winds out
of the west and northwest during the afternoon/evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may bring brief poor vsbys Tuesday and
Wednesday. Also potential for low vsbys in fog, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday early mornings.

Thursday...

Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds. Expect dry
weather.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Dunten
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261801
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
201 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build across the region today and
Monday, bringing very warm and dry conditions. A cold front will
slowly approach the region, bringing showers and possibly some
thunder Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the late week. Another cold front may
bring more showers sometime Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

Surface high pressure continues to move offshore today. 850 mb
temps warm between 15C to 17C today resulting in temps reaching
the upper 80s with a few locations near 90F. Locations along the
south coast remain cooler thanks to onshore wind. Sea breeze has
pushed through the MA east coastline. This has kept temperatures
cooler as well. Anticipate sea breeze to dissipate around 23/00z.
Aside from a few minor updates the overall trend in the forecast
remains on track for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...

Skies will start off mostly clear but, with the continued S-SW
wind flow, dewpoints will gradually increase overnight. Some
question as to whether a low level marine stratus cloud layer
will work into S coastal areas overnight, which would work as far
inland as NE CT/N RI into interior SE MA. Will need to monitor
this potential.

Expect overnight temps to not be quite as cool in some of the
normally chiller locales as they have been over the last few
nights. Readings should bottom out mainly in the 50s, but will
linger in the lower-mid 60s in the urban centers as well as over
the higher inland terrain with some radiational cooling still
occurring.

Monday...

Expect another warm day as S-SW winds begin to pick up. Will see
wind gusts up to 20-25 mph during the afternoon, mainly near the
E coast. Clouds will also be increasing from W-E well ahead of an
approaching cold front, mainly across central and western areas
during the afternoon. Any precip should hold off until sometime
Mon night. Temperatures will once again rebound to the mid-upper
80s inland and even along the immediate E coast with a more
offshore wind component, but holding in the 70s along the S
coast, Cape Cod and the islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. One shortwave rippling through the northern
flow moves from the Great Lakes into New England midweek and then
off through the Maritimes by Thursday. A second shortwave moves
down from Northern Canada midweek and moves into New England
during next weekend. Each shortwave will be driving a cold front
through our area, one midweek and the second next weekend.

The models continue to handle the midweek system differently. The
GFS continues to be the fast outlier of the group while the ECMWF
focuses on Wednesday. As noted yesterday the northern stream
shortwave digs over the Great Lakes Monday night and turns the
upper flow more SW-NE and parallel to the surface cold front. With
more push along the front rather than across it we would expect
the slowing shown by the ECMWF et al rather than the GFS solution.

Details...

Monday night through Wednesday...

As noted above, the upper flow over the Northeast USA turns
SW-NE as the first upper shortwave approaches. This supports a
slower approach of pcpn. We will continue with slight chance and
low-end chance pops in Western/Central MA and Northern CT but with
a feeling that most action will focus north and west of our area.

Cold front slowly moves east across Central and Eastern NY on
Tuesday. Jet dynamics and stability support most convection in that
area, perhaps eventually bleeding over into Southern New England.
Best chance for this would be in Western MA and adjacent CT. Low
level flow does bring in increasing dew points with values climbing
into the low to mid 60s.

Cold front crosses Southern New England late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This should provide an additional chance of
showers/thunder until fropa.

Thursday through Saturday...

High pressure builds over New England for Thursday and Friday.  This
should be a dry period with temps aloft in the mid teens C,
supporting surface max temps in the 80s. Second northern stream
shortwave approaches on Saturday and brings potential for showers
and possible thunder, although timing of a day seven feature carries
low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Through tonight...High Confidence. VFR. East Coast sea breeze
dissipating around 23z. May see brief pockets of MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS in patchy fog in low lying terminals.

Monday...High Confidence. VFR. Expect S-SW winds gradually
increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt Mon afternoon.

Monday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Conditions could
deteriorate as showers and iso thunder moves across western
terminals. Low-lying stratus and fog could develop ahead of
approaching showers.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. Sea breeze dissipates around 23z.
Southerly winds increase Mon, gusting up to around 25 kts Mon
afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Tuesday through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog. Also
brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly
Tuesday and Wednesday.  South to southwest surface winds will turn
West to northwest behind the front on Wednesday.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Today and tonight...Expect winds and seas below small craft
criteria as high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the
waters.

Monday...S winds will begin to increase, but should remain below
small craft criteria. However, seas on the eastern waters will
build up to around 5 ft by Monday afternoon, so have issued a
Small Craft for Hazardous Seas on the eastern outer waters, mainly
N of Boston Harbor to Cape Ann.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Seas of 5 feet may linger east of Cape Ann Monday night, driven
by southerly winds gusting near 20 knots. The Small Craft Advisory
for Seas may need to be extended much of the night.

South winds Tuesday will continue to gust near 20 knots. A cold
front moves across the waters Wednesday, which will turn winds out
of the west and northwest during the afternoon/evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may bring brief poor vsbys Tuesday and
Wednesday. Also potential for low vsbys in fog, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday early mornings.

Thursday...

Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds. Expect dry
weather.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Dunten
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 261751
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some diurnal heating clouds forming...especially in mountain
areas. There could be a sprinkle in the southern Adirondacks but
not enough coverage or intensity to carry rain chances. Strong sun
will help temperatures get well into the 80s to around 90 this
afternoon with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slowly move east of New England
this afternoon into tomorrow. A cold front will be approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada tomorrow
afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly the next 24 hrs ending 18Z/MON
at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception will be some patchy
radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog at KGFL/KPSF. Mostly clear
skies...light to calm winds...and dewpt temps creeping up may
allow for this period of mist/fog from 06Z-12Z.

Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning with
cirrus clouds around.

The winds will be from south/southeast at 4-8 kts this
afternoon...and become light to calm at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF before
04Z/MON. The winds will increase to 8-10 kts at KALB due to the
nocturnal funneling effect up the Hudson River Valley. The winds
will be generally from the south at 5-10 kts late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 261715
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
115 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some diurnal heating clouds foring...especially in mountain areas.
There could be a sprinkle in the southern Adirondacks but not
enough coverage or intensity to carry rain chances. Strong sun
will help temperatures get well into the 80s to around 90 this
afternoon with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 261715
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
115 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some diurnal heating clouds foring...especially in mountain areas.
There could be a sprinkle in the southern Adirondacks but not
enough coverage or intensity to carry rain chances. Strong sun
will help temperatures get well into the 80s to around 90 this
afternoon with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 261430
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT...Not much to change in the near term forecast
with high pressure in control near the Northeast...and light south
to southeast winds from the return flow of the anticyclone starting
to increase the humidity levels. The 12Z KALY sounding indicates
few-sct cumulus are possible...but a capping inversion in the
700-800 hPa level should inhibit any isolated showers.
Overall...mostly sunny conditions with perhaps partly sunny skies
over the mountains due to sct cumulus. High temps in the mid 80s
to around 90F are possible in the valley areas with good mixing
from H850/800. It would be Albany`s 4th 90F day of the warm
season...and the third for June. We bumped temps a degree or two.

Expecting a warm night across the area tonight as a southerly
flow persists ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will be
approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. Models in decent
agreement with any qpf remaining north and west of the area until
late, when a few showers or isolated thunder may move into the
western Adirondacks. Most of the area should remain dry through
sunrise Monday though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261409
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1009 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build across the region today and
Monday, bringing very warm and dry conditions. A cold front will
slowly approach the region, bringing showers and possibly some
thunder Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the late week. Another cold front may
bring more showers sometime Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM update...

Forecast remains on track for today. Went ahead an bumped
temperatures up a few degrees across the interior as guidance
indicated mixing above 850mb. 850 mb temps warm close to 16-17C
per 12z NAM/00z EC, which is a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Thus temperatures across the interior could reach the low 90s for
today. Sea breezes will continue to impact the east coastline
which will keep temps cooler thanks to the ocean temps. Onshore
flow across the southern waters will also keep temps down. Mixing
above 850 mb will result in some winds gusts near 15 mph.

Previous forecast...

Can expect mainly sunny skies, except again from some patchy mid
and high level clouds especially across W MA and N Central CT that
work in on the NW wind flow aloft. As the high sits over the
region, will see winds from the E-SE across E MA/RI while shift to
more a S-SE direction over central and western areas.

Temperatures will rebound quickly today especially away from the
coast. Readings by noontime should be in the upper 70s to lower
80s, then top off in the mid 80s up close to or eclipsing 90 in a
few spots. Along the immediate coast, temps will range from around
70 on the outer Cape to around 80 at a few spots on the North
Shore as well as Boston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...

Skies will start off mostly clear but, with the continued S-SW
wind flow, dewpoints will gradually increase overnight. Some
question as to whether a low level marine stratus cloud layer
will work into S coastal areas overnight, which would work as far
inland as NE CT/N RI into interior SE MA. Will need to monitor
this potential.

Expect overnight temps to not be quite as cool in some of the
normally chiller locales as they have been over the last few
nights. Readings should bottom out mainly in the 50s, but will
linger in the lower-mid 60s in the urban centers as well as over
the higher inland terrain with some radiational cooling still
occurring.

Monday...

Expect another warm day as S-SW winds begin to pick up. Will see
wind gusts up to 20-25 mph during the afternoon, mainly near the
E coast. Clouds will also be increasing from W-E well ahead of an
approaching cold front, mainly across central and western areas
during the afternoon. Any precip should hold off until sometime
Mon night. Temperatures will once again rebound to the mid-upper
80s inland and even along the immediate E coast with a more
offshore wind component, but holding in the 70s along the S
coast, Cape Cod and the islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. One shortwave rippling through the northern
flow moves from the Great Lakes into New England midweek and then
off through the Maritimes by Thursday. A second shortwave moves
down from Northern Canada midweek and moves into New England
during next weekend. Each shortwave will be driving a cold front
through our area, one midweek and the second next weekend.

The models continue to handle the midweek system differently. The
GFS continues to be the fast outlier of the group while the ECMWF
focuses on Wednesday. As noted yesterday the northern stream
shortwave digs over the Great Lakes Monday night and turns the
upper flow more SW-NE and parallel to the surface cold front. With
more push along the front rather than across it we would expect
the slowing shown by the ECMWF et al rather than the GFS solution.

Details...

Monday night through Wednesday...

As noted above, the upper flow over the Northeast USA turns
SW-NE as the first upper shortwave approaches. This supports a
slower approach of pcpn. We will continue with slight chance and
low-end chance pops in Western/Central MA and Northern CT but with
a feeling that most action will focus north and west of our area.

Cold front slowly moves east across Central and Eastern NY on
Tuesday. Jet dynamics and stability support most convection in that
area, perhaps eventually bleeding over into Southern New England.
Best chance for this would be in Western MA and adjacent CT. Low
level flow does bring in increasing dew points with values climbing
into the low to mid 60s.

Cold front crosses Southern New England late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This should provide an additional chance of
showers/thunder until fropa.

Thursday through Saturday...

High pressure builds over New England for Thursday and Friday.  This
should be a dry period with temps aloft in the mid teens C,
supporting surface max temps in the 80s. Second northern stream
shortwave approaches on Saturday and brings potential for showers
and possible thunder, although timing of a day seven feature carries
low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Today...High Confidence. VFR. Southerly winds will prevails with sea
breezes along the East Coast. Winds could gusts to near 15 kts.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. May see brief pockets
of MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS in patchy fog across some of the normally
prone inland areas including interior E Mass and N Central/NW Mass
after midnight. S-SE winds up to 10 kt.

Monday...High confidence. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions in
patchy fog should improve by 13Z. Expect S-SW winds gradually
increasing, gusts up to 20 kt Mon afternoon along the E coast.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds up to 15 kt this
afternoon, becoming light S tonight. S-SW winds increase Mon,
gusting up to around 20 kt Mon afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog. Also
brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly
Tuesday and Wednesday.  South to southwest surface winds will turn
West to northwest behind the front on Wednesday.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Today and tonight...Expect winds and seas below small craft
criteria as high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the
waters.

Monday...S winds will begin to increase, but should remain below
small craft criteria. However, seas on the eastern waters will
build up to around 5 ft by Monday afternoon, so have issued a
Small Craft for Hazardous Seas on the eastern outer waters, mainly
N of Boston Harbor to Cape Ann.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Seas of 5 feet may linger east of Cape Ann Monday night, driven
by southerly winds gusting near 20 knots. The Small Craft Advisory
for Seas may need to be extended much of the night.

South winds Tuesday will continue to gust near 20 knots. A cold
front moves across the waters Wednesday, which will turn winds out
of the west and northwest during the afternoon/evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may bring brief poor vsbys Tuesday and
Wednesday. Also potential for low vsbys in fog, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday early mornings.

Thursday...

Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds. Expect dry
weather.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...Dunten/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT/Dunten
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261052
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
652 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build across the region today and
Monday, bringing very warm and dry conditions. A cold front will
slowly approach the region, bringing showers and possibly some
thunder Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the late week. Another cold front may
bring more showers sometime Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 am update...

A few reports of cirrus, otherwise sunny skies. Fair weather
should continue through the day. Current forecast looks fine with
no changes planned.

Previous forecast...

Can expect mainly sunny skies, except again from some patchy mid
and high level clouds especially across W MA and N Central CT that
work in on the NW wind flow aloft. As the high sits over the
region, will see winds from the E-SE across E MA/RI while shift to
more a S-SE direction over central and western areas.

Temperatures will rebound quickly today especially away from the
coast. Readings by noontime should be in the upper 70s to lower
80s, then top off in the mid 80s up close to or eclipsing 90 in a
few spots. Along the immediate coast, temps will range from around
70 on the outer Cape to around 80 at a few spots on the North
Shore as well as Boston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...

Skies will start off mostly clear but, with the continued S-SW
wind flow, dewpoints will gradually increase overnight. Some
question as to whether a low level marine stratus cloud layer
will work into S coastal areas overnight, which would work as far
inland as NE CT/N RI into interior SE MA. Will need to monitor
this potential.

Expect overnight temps to not be quite as cool in some of the
normally chiller locales as they have been over the last few
nights. Readings should bottom out mainly in the 50s, but will
linger in the lower-mid 60s in the urban centers as well as over
the higher inland terrain with some radiational cooling still
occurring.

Monday...

Expect another warm day as S-SW winds begin to pick up. Will see
wind gusts up to 20-25 mph during the afternoon, mainly near the
E coast. Clouds will also be increasing from W-E well ahead of an
approaching cold front, mainly across central and western areas
during the afternoon. Any precip should hold off until sometime
Mon night. Temperatures will once again rebound to the mid-upper
80s inland and even along the immediate E coast with a more
offshore wind component, but holding in the 70s along the S
coast, Cape Cod and the islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. One shortwave rippling through the northern
flow moves from the Great Lakes into New England midweek and then
off through the Maritimes by Thursday. A second shortwave moves
down from Northern Canada midweek and moves into New England
during next weekend. Each shortwave will be driving a cold front
through our area, one midweek and the second next weekend.

The models continue to handle the midweek system differently. The
GFS continues to be the fast outlier of the group while the ECMWF
focuses on Wednesday. As noted yesterday the northern stream
shortwave digs over the Great Lakes Monday night and turns the
upper flow more SW-NE and parallel to the surface cold front. With
more push along the front rather than across it we would expect
the slowing shown by the ECMWF et al rather than the GFS solution.

Details...

Monday night through Wednesday...

As noted above, the upper flow over the Northeast USA turns
SW-NE as the first upper shortwave approaches. This supports a
slower approach of pcpn. We will continue with slight chance and
low-end chance pops in Western/Central MA and Northern CT but with
a feeling that most action will focus north and west of our area.

Cold front slowly moves east across Central and Eastern NY on
Tuesday. Jet dynamics and stability support most convection in that
area, perhaps eventually bleeding over into Southern New England.
Best chance for this would be in Western MA and adjacent CT. Low
level flow does bring in increasing dew points with values climbing
into the low to mid 60s.

Cold front crosses Southern New England late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This should provide an additional chance of
showers/thunder until fropa.

Thursday through Saturday...

High pressure builds over New England for Thursday and Friday.  This
should be a dry period with temps aloft in the mid teens C,
supporting surface max temps in the 80s. Second northern stream
shortwave approaches on Saturday and brings potential for showers
and possible thunder, although timing of a day seven feature carries
low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Today...High Confidence. VFR. Expect E-SE winds up to around 10
kt along the east coast and S-SE winds up to 10 kt on the S coast.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. May see brief pockets
of MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS in patchy fog across some of the normally
prone inland areas including interior E Mass and N Central/NW Mass
after midnight. S-SE winds up to 10 kt.

Monday...High confidence. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions in
patchy fog should improve by 13Z. Expect S-SW winds gradually
increasing, gusts up to 20 kt Mon afternoon along the E coast.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds up to 10 kt this
afternoon, becoming light S tonight. S-SW winds increase Mon,
gusting up to around 20 kt Mon afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog. Also
brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly
Tuesday and Wednesday.  South to southwest surface winds will turn
West to northwest behind the front on Wednesday.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Today and tonight...Expect winds and seas below small craft
criteria as high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the
waters.

Monday...S winds will begin to increase, but should remain below
small craft criteria. However, seas on the eastern waters will
build up to around 5 ft by Monday afternoon, so have issued a
Small Craft for Hazardous Seas on the eastern outer waters, mainly
N of Boston Harbor to Cape Ann.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Seas of 5 feet may linger east of Cape Ann Monday night, driven
by southerly winds gusting near 20 knots. The Small Craft Advisory
for Seas may need to be extended much of the night.

South winds Tuesday will continue to gust near 20 knots. A cold
front moves across the waters Wednesday, which will turn winds out
of the west and northwest during the afternoon/evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may bring brief poor vsbys Tuesday and
Wednesday. Also potential for low vsbys in fog, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday early mornings.

Thursday...

Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds. Expect dry
weather.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 261030
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EDT...High pressure remains in control just to our
east, although some high level cirrus clouds courtesy of
convective debris from the upper Great Lakes will be moving
through today. Difficult to determine if the clouds will remain
rather thick or thin out as they move across our region. Due to
the upper level ridge axis in place, will expect clouds to not
inhibit solar heating. Some diurnal fair weather cu are also
expected to develop. Once again no convection expected due to
capped environment. It will be another very warm day, with most
areas reaching the mid to upper 80s for highs this afternoon.
Humidity will start to creep up with dewpoints approaching or
slightly exceeding 60. However, humidity levels remain relatively
low for late June.

Expecting a warm night across the area tonight as a southerly
flow persists ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will be
approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. Models in decent
agreement with any qpf remaining north and west of the area until
late, when a few showers or isolated thunder may move into the
western Adirondacks. Most of the area should remain dry through
sunrise Monday though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 261006
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
606 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT...High pressure remains in control just to our
east, although some high level cirrus clouds courtesy of
convective debris from the upper Great Lakes will be moving
through today. Difficult to determine if the clouds will remain
rather thick or thin out as they move across our region. Due to
the upper level ridge axis in place, will expect clouds to not
inhibit solar heating. Some diurnal fair weather cu are also
expected to develop. Once again no convection expected due to
capped environment. It will be another very warm day, with most
areas reaching the mid to upper 80s for highs this afternoon.
Humidity will start to creep up with dewpoints approaching or
slightly exceeding 60. However, humidity levels remain relatively
low for late June.

Expecting a warm night across the area tonight as a southerly
flow persists ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will be
approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. Models in decent
agreement with any qpf remaining north and west of the area until
late, when a few showers or isolated thunder may move into the
western Adirondacks. Most of the area should remain dry through
sunrise Monday though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260834
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
434 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build across the region today and
Monday, bringing very warm and dry conditions. A cold front will
slowly approach the region, bringing showers and possibly some
thunder Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the late week. Another cold front may
bring more showers sometime Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Skies remain mainly clear across the region at 08Z, except for a
few reports of thin cirrus clouds. Also noting some patchy mid
level clouds across the Green Mountains of VT as well as over SW
CT into the NYC area on latest observations as well as IR
satellite imagery. Also noting some ocean clouds well SE of
Nantucket shifting westward, but should stay clear for at least
the next several hours if they approach at all.

Have see a couple of brief reports of reduced vsbys, mainly at
KTAN and into N Central MA/SW NH. May see a couple more through
around sunrise but should not last long as the sun will quickly
break those apart as well as the quickly rising temperatures.

As for the daylight hours today, can expect mainly sunny skies,
except again from some patchy mid and high level clouds especially
across W MA and N Central CT that work in on the NW wind flow
aloft. As the high sits over the region, will see winds from the
E-SE across E MA/RI while shift to more a S-SE direction over
central and western areas.

Temperatures will rebound quickly today especially away from the
coast. Readings by noontime should be in the upper 70s to lower
80s, then top off in the mid 80s up close to or eclipsing 90 in a
few spots. Along the immediate coast, temps will range from around
70 on the outer Cape to around 80 at a few spots on the North
Shore as well as Boston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

Tonight...

Skies will start off mostly clear but, with the continued S-SW
wind flow, dewpoints will gradually increase overnight. Some
question as to whether a low level marine stratus cloud layer
will work into S coastal areas overnight, which would work as far
inland as NE CT/N RI into interior SE MA. Will need to monitor
this potential.

Expect overnight temps to not be quite as cool in some of the
normally chiller locales as they have been over the last few
nights. Readings should bottom out mainly in the 50s, but will
linger in the lower-mid 60s in the urban centers as well as over
the higher inland terrain with some radiational cooling still
occurring.

Monday...

Expect another warm day as S-SW winds begin to pick up. Will see
wind gusts up to 20-25 mph during the afternoon, mainly near the
E coast. Clouds will also be increasing from W-E well ahead of an
approaching cold front, mainly across central and western areas
during the afternoon. Any precip should hold off until sometime
Mon night. Temperatures will once again rebound to the mid-upper
80s inland and even along the immediate E coast with a more
offshore wind component, but holding in the 70s along the S
coast, Cape Cod and the islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. One shortwave rippling through the northern
flow moves from the Great Lakes into New England midweek and then
off through the Maritimes by Thursday. A second shortwave moves
down from Northern Canada midweek and moves into New England
during next weekend. Each shortwave will be driving a cold front
through our area, one midweek and the second next weekend.

The models continue to handle the midweek system differently. The
GFS continues to be the fast outlier of the group while the ECMWF
focuses on Wednesday. As noted yesterday the northern stream
shortwave digs over the Great Lakes Monday night and turns the
upper flow more SW-NE and parallel to the surface cold front. With
more push along the front rather than across it we would expect
the slowing shown by the ECMWF et al rather than the GFS solution.

Details...

Monday night through Wednesday...

As noted above, the upper flow over the Northeast USA turns
SW-NE as the first upper shortwave approaches. This supports a
slower approach of pcpn. We will continue with slight chance and
low-end chance pops in Western/Central MA and Northern CT but with
a feeling that most action will focus north and west of our area.

Cold front slowly moves east across Central and Eastern NY on
Tuesday. Jet dynamics and stability support most convection in that
area, perhaps eventually bleeding over into Southern New England.
Best chance for this would be in Western MA and adjacent CT. Low
level flow does bring in increasing dew points with values climbing
into the low to mid 60s.

Cold front crosses Southern New England late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This should provide an additional chance of
showers/thunder until fropa.

Thursday through Saturday...

High pressure builds over New England for Thursday and Friday.  This
should be a dry period with temps aloft in the mid teens C,
supporting surface max temps in the 80s. Second northern stream
shortwave approaches on Saturday and brings potential for showers
and possible thunder, although timing of a day seven feature carries
low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Today...High Confidence. VFR. Any leftover patchy MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
in patchy fog should improve by 13Z. Expect E-SE winds up to
around 10 kt along the east coast and S-SE winds up to 10 kt on
the S coast.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. May see brief pockets
of MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS in patchy fog across some of the normally
prone inland areas including interior E Mass and N Central/NW Mass
after midnight. S-SE winds up to 10 kt.

Monday...High confidence. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions in
patchy fog should improve by 13Z. Expect S-SW winds gradually
increasing, gusts up to 20 kt Mon afternoon along the E coast.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds up to 10 kt this
afternoon, becoming light S tonight. S-SW winds increase Mon,
gusting up to around 20 kt Mon afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog. Also
brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly
Tuesday and Wednesday.  South to southwest surface winds will turn
West to northwest behind the front on Wednesday.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Today and tonight...Expect winds and seas below small craft
criteria as high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the
waters.

Monday...S winds will begin to increase, but should remain below
small craft criteria. However, seas on the eastern waters will
build up to around 5 ft by Monday afternoon, so have issued a
Small Craft for Hazardous Seas on the eastern outer waters, mainly
N of Boston Harbor to Cape Ann.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Seas of 5 feet may linger east of Cape Ann Monday night, driven
by southerly winds gusting near 20 knots. The Small Craft Advisory
for Seas may need to be extended much of the night.

South winds Tuesday will continue to gust near 20 knots. A cold
front moves across the waters Wednesday, which will turn winds out
of the west and northwest during the afternoon/evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may bring brief poor vsbys Tuesday and
Wednesday. Also potential for low vsbys in fog, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday early mornings.

Thursday...

Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds. Expect dry
weather.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 260745
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT...High pressure remains in control just to our
east, although some high level cirrus clouds courtesy of
convective debris from the upper Great Lakes will be moving
through today. Difficult to determine if the clouds will remain
rather thick or thin out as they move across our region. Due to
the upper level ridge axis in place, will expect clouds to not
inhibit solar heating. Some diurnal fair weather cu are also
expected to develop. Once again no convection expected due to
capped environment. It will be another very warm day, with most
areas reaching the mid to upper 80s for highs this afternoon.
Humidity will start to creep up with dewpoints approaching or
slightly exceeding 60. However, humidity levels remain relatively
low for late June.

Expecting a warm night across the area tonight as a southerly
flow persists ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will be
approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. Models in decent
agreement with any qpf remaining north and west of the area until
late, when a few showers or isolated thunder may move into the
western Adirondacks. Most of the area should remain dry through
sunrise Monday though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 06Z Monday. The exception may be
some brief fog at KGFL and KPSF but expected to be too short lived
to place in TAFs at this time. Skies will generally be SKC
overnight with light and variable winds. On Sunday skies will
become SCT040 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again Sunday evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260736
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
336 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridge extending across the Northeast U.S. into the
Gulf of Maine will slowly shift to the south of our region, with
very warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder Tuesday and
Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for
the late week. Another cold front may bring more showers sometime
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 PM Update...

Other than a few wispy cirrus clouds and some mid layer patchy
clouds, skies were mainly clear across the region at 02Z. Wide
range of temperatures noted, down to the lower-mid 50s across the
Cape and Islands ranging to around 70 in the lower CT valley.
Mainly calm winds with high pres overhead, but noting some light S
winds across W MA and N Central CT.

Noting the ridge axis running across E and central Mass into RI
and Long Island, which should slowly shift S overnight.

With diminishing winds overnight, expect patchy fog to redevelop
in some of the normally susceptible inland locations after 05Z-
06Z, though dewpts running a bit lower than last night across
interior E Mass /on the order of the mid-upper 40s/. Will need to
see temps start to drop off mainly after midnight to get the fog
to develop.

Remainder of the forecast in good shape. Have updated to bring
conditions current.

Previous discussion...

Anticipating a good setup for radiational cooling. Areas with
sandy soils likely to cool quickest, namely Marthas Vineyard which
is notorious for doing so. Closely looking at the dewpoints during
max heating of the day, ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Identifiers as cross-over thresholds for the development of fog.
The lower the overnight temperature below the cross-over, the
greater likelihood of fog, although it has been reasonably dry as
of late. Continued patchy thinking mainly late towards daybreak.
Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, warmer in urban centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. Mostly sunny and very warm
humidities still on the comfortable side. 925 mb temperatures
will be 2 or 3 degrees warmer than today, which means that high
temperatures could approach 90 degrees in the Connecticut River
valley, with mid and upper 80s across the rest of interior
southern New England. Onshore sea breezes will once again keep
coastal areas cooler...in the mid and upper 70s.

Sunday night...

Clear skies initially. With continued southerly flow, dewpoints
will slowly rise to the upper 50s along the south coast. The NAM
1000 mb Relative Humidity forecast shows a distinct area of
marine-layer stratus invading the coast and then moving across
southeast MA, RI, and perhaps northeast CT toward Monday morning.
While the NAM may be overdoing this, have forecast partly to
mostly cloudy skies in that area with patchy fog after midnight.
Lows mainly 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. One shortwave rippling through the northern flow
moves from the Great Lakes into New England midweek and then off
through the Maritimes by Thursday.  A second shortwave moves down
from Northern Canada midweek and moves into New England during next
weekend. Each shortwave will be driving a cold front through our
area, one midweek and the second next weekend.

The models continue to handle the midweek system differently. The
GFS continues to be the fast outlier of the group while the ECMWF
focusses on Wednesday. As noted yesterday the northern stream
shortwave digs over the Great Lakes Monday night and turns the upper
flow more SW-NE and parallel to the surface cold front. With more
push along the front rather than across it we would expect the
slowing shown by the ECMWF et al rather than the GFS solution.

Details...

Monday night through Wednesday...

As noted above, the upper flow over the Northeast USA turns SW-NE as
the first upper shortwave approaches. This supports a slower
approach of pcpn. We will continue with slight chance and low-end
chance pops in Western/Central MA and Northern CT but with a feeling
that most action will focus north and west of our area.

Cold front slowly moves east across Central and Eastern NY on
Tuesday. Jet dynamics and stability support most convection in that
area, perhaps eventually bleeding over into Southern New England.
Best chance for this would be in Western MA and adjacent CT. Low
level flow does bring in increasing dew points with values climbing
into the low to mid 60s.

Cold front crosses Southern New England late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This should provide an additional chance of
showers/thunder until fropa.

Thursday through Saturday...

High pressure builds over New England for Thursday and Friday.  This
should be a dry period with temps aloft in the mid teens C,
supporting surface max temps in the 80s. Second northern stream
shortwave approaches on Saturday and brings potential for showers
and possible thunder, although timing of a day seven feature carries
low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

03Z update...No changes to previous forecast.

Overnight and Sunday...High Confidence. VFR. Low risk for patchy
MVFR conditions in fog late after midnight tonight in normally
prone locations.

Sunday night...Moderate Confidence. VFR north of the MA Pike and
much of northern CT. VFR initially over RI and southeast MA. Then
potential for IFR ceilings and patchy IFR fog overspreading that
region and possibly northeast CT toward daybreak Monday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light winds tonight. Winds shift
back to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday, then light southerly
Sunday night. Some potential for a thin layer of IFR ceilings
toward daybreak Monday, especially south of KBOS.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sunday night.

Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/...

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog. Also
brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly
Tuesday and Wednesday.  South to southwest surface winds will turn
West to northwest behind the front on Wednesday.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

11 PM update...No changes to the previous forecast.

Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday night as
high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the waters.

Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/... Moderate confidence.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Seas of 5 feet may linger east of Cape Ann Monday night, driven by
southerly winds gusting near 20 knots. The Small Craft Advisory for
Seas may need to be extended much of the night.

South winds Tuesday will continue to gust near 20 knots. A cold
front moves across the waters Wednesday, which will turn winds out
of the west and northwest during the afternoon/evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may bring brief poor vsbys Tuesday and
Wednesday. Also potential for low vsbys in fog, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday early mornings.

Thursday...

Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds. Expect dry
weather.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 260505
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
105 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1242 AM EDT...Temperatures have been slower to cool than
forecast, so raised min temps a few degrees especially in the
Hudson Valley where a southerly breeze has developed. High level
cirrus clouds will move through overnight, but still resulting in
mostly clear skies. Some fog could develop in favored locations,
but very patchy and not enough coverage to mention in forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 06Z Monday. The exception may be
some brief fog at KGFL and KPSF but expected to be too short lived
to place in TAFs at this time. Skies will generally be SKC
overnight with light and variable winds. On Sunday skies will
become SCT040 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again Sunday evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...11/Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 260442
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1242 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1242 AM EDT...Temperatures have been slower to cool than
forecast, so raised min temps a few degrees especially in the
Hudson Valley where a southerly breeze has developed. High level
cirrus clouds will move through overnight, but still resulting in
mostly clear skies. Some fog could develop in favored locations,
but very patchy and not enough coverage to mention in forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will persist at all levels of the atmosphere across
the region into Monday. VFR conditions will mainly dominate the
next 24 hrs. There may be some patchy MVFR/IFR mist or fog that
may briefly form between 08Z-13Z in deep valleys and normally fog
prone locales tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Snyder/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260314
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1114 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridge extending across the Northeast U.S. into the
Gulf of Maine will slowly shift to the south of our region, with
very warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cool
front brings showers and possibly some thunder beginning Monday
night and continuing through Thursday. High pressure then brings
dry seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM Update...

Other than a few wispy cirrus clouds and some mid layer patchy
clouds, skies were mainly clear across the region at 02Z. Wide
range of temperatures noted, down to the lower-mid 50s across the
Cape and Islands ranging to around 70 in the lower CT valley.
Mainly calm winds with high pres overhead, but noting some light S
winds across W MA and N Central CT.

Noting the ridge axis running across E and central Mass into RI
and Long Island, which should slowly shift S overnight.

With diminishing winds overnight, expect patchy fog to redevelop
in some of the normally susceptible inland locations after 05Z-
06Z, though dewpts running a bit lower than last night across
interior E Mass /on the order of the mid-upper 40s/. Will need to
see temps start to drop off mainly after midnight to get the fog
to develop.

Remainder of the forecast in good shape. Have updated to bring
conditions current.

Previous discussion...

Anticipating a good setup for radiational cooling. Areas with
sandy soils likely to cool quickest, namely Marthas Vineyard which
is notorious for doing so. Closely looking at the dewpoints during
max heating of the day, ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Identifiers as cross-over thresholds for the development of fog.
The lower the overnight temperature below the cross-over, the
greater likelihood of fog, although it has been reasonably dry as
of late. Continued patchy thinking mainly late towards daybreak.
Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, warmer in urban centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. Mostly sunny and very warm
humidities still on the comfortable side. 925 mb temperatures
will be 2 or 3 degrees warmer than today, which means that high
temperatures could approach 90 degrees in the Connecticut River
valley, with mid and upper 80s across the rest of interior
southern New England. Onshore sea breezes will once again keep
coastal areas cooler...in the mid and upper 70s.

Sunday night...

Clear skies initially. With continued southerly flow, dewpoints
will slowly rise to the upper 50s along the south coast. The NAM
1000 mb Relative Humidity forecast shows a distinct area of
marine-layer stratus invading the coast and then moving across
southeast MA, RI, and perhaps northeast CT toward Monday morning.
While the NAM may be overdoing this, have forecast partly to
mostly cloudy skies in that area with patchy fog after midnight.
Lows mainly 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - Increasing chances of wet weather from N/W beginning Monday Night
 - Potential offshore low for late Wednesday into Thursday
 - Keeping it dry and near-seasonable for Friday into the Weekend

*/ DISCUSSION...

While the Pacific North American pattern shifts positive into July
per ridging over the W CONUS with troughing over the Great Lakes
region into the NE CONUS, New England seemingly resides on the E
periphery of the trough. Subsequently and as been the trend of late,
continued maintenance of the Atlantic ridge with sub-tropical flow
along the N periphery of which yields a squeeze play of
subsidence mainly SW to NE across the Gulf of Maine into SE New
England up against synoptic disturbances approaching from the N
and W. The overall dry pattern looks to continue with many
locations recording rainfall deficits on the order of around 3 to
6 inches since the beginning of the year. Considering the forecast
for the next week, this trend looks to continue for SE portions of
New England. A non- GFS consensus is preferred with heavier
weighting towards ensemble probabilistics and means.

From Monday through Wednesday, will see an increasing influx of
moisture throughout the atmospheric profile per S flow and as
surface dewpoints rise into the 60s. Potentially some issues with
marine stratus and fog early on over S/SE New England. Precipitable
waters increasing on up around 1.5 inches ahead of low to mid level
synoptics beneath broad diffluence aloft out of the N/W invoking a
favorable environment of forcing and lift along a slow moving cool
front. Can not rule out some pre-frontal boundaries out ahead.
Overall the expectation is that with each day PoPs will increase out
of the N/W as the more favorable environment approaches throughout
which the atmospheric profile becomes more conditionally unstable.

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.y unstable.
Difficult to nail down cloud cover and potential diurnal forcing
possibly yielding surface based instability, but aside, looking at
the broader view of ingredients gives weight and confidence towards
PoP trends which again are to gradually increase out of the N and W
with time. Monday should be dry, but overnight into Tuesday any
activity expected over Upstate NY into PA should drift E with the
mean wind before dissipating in prevailing high pressure and drier
air S/E. This environment slowly shifts E yielding the best chances
for wet weather over a majority of the forecast area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Again, preference to the slower solutions up against
a retrograding H5 low offshore. GFS seems just a tad too fast.

From Wednesday on into Thursday, will have to watch how efficiently
and effectively mid-level synoptics round the broad troughing
pattern invoke surface cyclogenesis and low pressure along the long-
standing stalled sub-tropical front over the SE CONUS and off the
Mid-Atlantic. How the surface low evolves, how far N its pulled by
lower heights to the N, whether it can brush New England and bring
forth more rain or rather if it stays offshore and we stay dry. EC
ensemble exhibits a trend but is widely spread on low location, so a
low confidence forecast. Some cooler air behind the system coupled
with forcing per additional mid-level energy, could see some
activity spark across the interior with diurnal heating of available
moisture providing the lift through the atmosphere.

For Friday on into the weekend will keep it dry. Continued troughing
aloft but will keep it absent of forcing for the time being. Hold
temperatures near seasonable with the expectation of both heat and
humidity building over the timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...

03Z update...No changes to previous forecast.

Overnight and Sunday...High Confidence. VFR. Low risk for patchy
MVFR conditions in fog late after midnight tonight in normally
prone locations.

Sunday night...Moderate Confidence. VFR north of the MA Pike and
much of northern CT. VFR initially over RI and southeast MA. Then
potential for IFR ceilings and patchy IFR fog overspreading that
region and possibly northeast CT toward daybreak Monday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light winds tonight. Winds shift
back to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday, then light southerly
Sunday night. Some potential for a thin layer of IFR ceilings
toward daybreak Monday, especially south of KBOS.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sunday night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds. Potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. IFR-LIFR stratus
possible, mainly thinking S/SE of the CT-MA border, including
southeast MA. Increasing chances of RA out of the N/W beginning
Monday night. Highest likelihood Tuesday into Wednesday. TEMPO MVFR
possible, at least low-end VFR. Can not rule out the potential risk
of TSRA.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. RA impacts with the potential TSRA risk
continuing with additional weather possibility across interior New
England. Winds backing out of the N/W.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.

11 PM update...No changes to the previous forecast.

Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday night as
high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds with the potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. Could
see some visibility restrictions with low clouds and fog. Otherwise
prevalent S flow likely to generate swell and seas above 5 feet
towards the later half of the period. Rain chances increase towards
this timeframe, though it is possible aside from aforementioned
soupy weather, conditions could remain relatively dry.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. How close it will brush New England remains
uncertain though it does appear forecast trends do not have it
sticking around for long. Would expect wet weather and perhaps some
enhancement in wind and wave conditions for a brief period out on
the waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sipprell/GAF
NEAR TERM...Sipprell/EVT
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Sipprell/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260314
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1114 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridge extending across the Northeast U.S. into the
Gulf of Maine will slowly shift to the south of our region, with
very warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cool
front brings showers and possibly some thunder beginning Monday
night and continuing through Thursday. High pressure then brings
dry seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM Update...

Other than a few wispy cirrus clouds and some mid layer patchy
clouds, skies were mainly clear across the region at 02Z. Wide
range of temperatures noted, down to the lower-mid 50s across the
Cape and Islands ranging to around 70 in the lower CT valley.
Mainly calm winds with high pres overhead, but noting some light S
winds across W MA and N Central CT.

Noting the ridge axis running across E and central Mass into RI
and Long Island, which should slowly shift S overnight.

With diminishing winds overnight, expect patchy fog to redevelop
in some of the normally susceptible inland locations after 05Z-
06Z, though dewpts running a bit lower than last night across
interior E Mass /on the order of the mid-upper 40s/. Will need to
see temps start to drop off mainly after midnight to get the fog
to develop.

Remainder of the forecast in good shape. Have updated to bring
conditions current.

Previous discussion...

Anticipating a good setup for radiational cooling. Areas with
sandy soils likely to cool quickest, namely Marthas Vineyard which
is notorious for doing so. Closely looking at the dewpoints during
max heating of the day, ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Identifiers as cross-over thresholds for the development of fog.
The lower the overnight temperature below the cross-over, the
greater likelihood of fog, although it has been reasonably dry as
of late. Continued patchy thinking mainly late towards daybreak.
Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, warmer in urban centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. Mostly sunny and very warm
humidities still on the comfortable side. 925 mb temperatures
will be 2 or 3 degrees warmer than today, which means that high
temperatures could approach 90 degrees in the Connecticut River
valley, with mid and upper 80s across the rest of interior
southern New England. Onshore sea breezes will once again keep
coastal areas cooler...in the mid and upper 70s.

Sunday night...

Clear skies initially. With continued southerly flow, dewpoints
will slowly rise to the upper 50s along the south coast. The NAM
1000 mb Relative Humidity forecast shows a distinct area of
marine-layer stratus invading the coast and then moving across
southeast MA, RI, and perhaps northeast CT toward Monday morning.
While the NAM may be overdoing this, have forecast partly to
mostly cloudy skies in that area with patchy fog after midnight.
Lows mainly 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - Increasing chances of wet weather from N/W beginning Monday Night
 - Potential offshore low for late Wednesday into Thursday
 - Keeping it dry and near-seasonable for Friday into the Weekend

*/ DISCUSSION...

While the Pacific North American pattern shifts positive into July
per ridging over the W CONUS with troughing over the Great Lakes
region into the NE CONUS, New England seemingly resides on the E
periphery of the trough. Subsequently and as been the trend of late,
continued maintenance of the Atlantic ridge with sub-tropical flow
along the N periphery of which yields a squeeze play of
subsidence mainly SW to NE across the Gulf of Maine into SE New
England up against synoptic disturbances approaching from the N
and W. The overall dry pattern looks to continue with many
locations recording rainfall deficits on the order of around 3 to
6 inches since the beginning of the year. Considering the forecast
for the next week, this trend looks to continue for SE portions of
New England. A non- GFS consensus is preferred with heavier
weighting towards ensemble probabilistics and means.

From Monday through Wednesday, will see an increasing influx of
moisture throughout the atmospheric profile per S flow and as
surface dewpoints rise into the 60s. Potentially some issues with
marine stratus and fog early on over S/SE New England. Precipitable
waters increasing on up around 1.5 inches ahead of low to mid level
synoptics beneath broad diffluence aloft out of the N/W invoking a
favorable environment of forcing and lift along a slow moving cool
front. Can not rule out some pre-frontal boundaries out ahead.
Overall the expectation is that with each day PoPs will increase out
of the N/W as the more favorable environment approaches throughout
which the atmospheric profile becomes more conditionally unstable.

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.y unstable.
Difficult to nail down cloud cover and potential diurnal forcing
possibly yielding surface based instability, but aside, looking at
the broader view of ingredients gives weight and confidence towards
PoP trends which again are to gradually increase out of the N and W
with time. Monday should be dry, but overnight into Tuesday any
activity expected over Upstate NY into PA should drift E with the
mean wind before dissipating in prevailing high pressure and drier
air S/E. This environment slowly shifts E yielding the best chances
for wet weather over a majority of the forecast area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Again, preference to the slower solutions up against
a retrograding H5 low offshore. GFS seems just a tad too fast.

From Wednesday on into Thursday, will have to watch how efficiently
and effectively mid-level synoptics round the broad troughing
pattern invoke surface cyclogenesis and low pressure along the long-
standing stalled sub-tropical front over the SE CONUS and off the
Mid-Atlantic. How the surface low evolves, how far N its pulled by
lower heights to the N, whether it can brush New England and bring
forth more rain or rather if it stays offshore and we stay dry. EC
ensemble exhibits a trend but is widely spread on low location, so a
low confidence forecast. Some cooler air behind the system coupled
with forcing per additional mid-level energy, could see some
activity spark across the interior with diurnal heating of available
moisture providing the lift through the atmosphere.

For Friday on into the weekend will keep it dry. Continued troughing
aloft but will keep it absent of forcing for the time being. Hold
temperatures near seasonable with the expectation of both heat and
humidity building over the timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...

03Z update...No changes to previous forecast.

Overnight and Sunday...High Confidence. VFR. Low risk for patchy
MVFR conditions in fog late after midnight tonight in normally
prone locations.

Sunday night...Moderate Confidence. VFR north of the MA Pike and
much of northern CT. VFR initially over RI and southeast MA. Then
potential for IFR ceilings and patchy IFR fog overspreading that
region and possibly northeast CT toward daybreak Monday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light winds tonight. Winds shift
back to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday, then light southerly
Sunday night. Some potential for a thin layer of IFR ceilings
toward daybreak Monday, especially south of KBOS.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sunday night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds. Potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. IFR-LIFR stratus
possible, mainly thinking S/SE of the CT-MA border, including
southeast MA. Increasing chances of RA out of the N/W beginning
Monday night. Highest likelihood Tuesday into Wednesday. TEMPO MVFR
possible, at least low-end VFR. Can not rule out the potential risk
of TSRA.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. RA impacts with the potential TSRA risk
continuing with additional weather possibility across interior New
England. Winds backing out of the N/W.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.

11 PM update...No changes to the previous forecast.

Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday night as
high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds with the potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. Could
see some visibility restrictions with low clouds and fog. Otherwise
prevalent S flow likely to generate swell and seas above 5 feet
towards the later half of the period. Rain chances increase towards
this timeframe, though it is possible aside from aforementioned
soupy weather, conditions could remain relatively dry.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. How close it will brush New England remains
uncertain though it does appear forecast trends do not have it
sticking around for long. Would expect wet weather and perhaps some
enhancement in wind and wave conditions for a brief period out on
the waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sipprell/GAF
NEAR TERM...Sipprell/EVT
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Sipprell/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 260112
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
912 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
At 645pm...Diurnal cu are dissipating and region is under high
pressure at all levels of the atmosphere. Skies will be clear with
light winds for the short summer solstice week night. Some patchy
fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage to out
in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help temperatures to
fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will persist at all levels of the atmosphere across
the region into Monday. VFR conditions will mainly dominate the
next 24 hrs. There may be some patchy MVFR/IFR mist or fog that
may briefly form between 08Z-13Z in deep valleys and normally fog
prone locales tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Snyder/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252314
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
714 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure ridge extending across the Northeast U.S. into the
Gulf of Maine will slowly shift to the south of our region, with
very warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cool
front brings showers and possibly some thunder beginning Monday
night and continuing through Thursday. High pressure then brings
dry seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

730 pm update...

No major changes to the forecast. Conditions becoming clear with
calm winds overnight. Anticipating a good setup for radiational
cooling. Areas with sandy soils likely to cool quickest, namely
Marthas Vineyard which is notorious for doing so. Closely looking
at the dewpoints during max heating of the day, ranging in the
upper 40s to low 50s. Identifiers as cross-over thresholds for the
development of fog. The lower the overnight temperature below the
cross-over, the greater likelihood of fog, although it has been
reasonably dry as of late. Continued patchy thinking mainly late
towards daybreak. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, warmer in
urban centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. Mostly sunny and very warm
humidities still on the comfortable side. 925 mb temperatures
will be 2 or 3 degrees warmer than today, which means that high
temperatures could approach 90 degrees in the Connecticut River
valley, with mid and upper 80s across the rest of interior
southern New England. Onshore sea breezes will once again keep
coastal areas cooler...in the mid and upper 70s.

Sunday night...

Clear skies initially. With continued southerly flow, dewpoints
will slowly rise to the upper 50s along the south coast. The NAM
1000 mb Relative Humidity forecast shows a distinct area of
marine-layer stratus invading the coast and then moving across
southeast MA, RI, and perhaps northeast CT toward Monday morning.
While the NAM may be overdoing this, have forecast partly to
mostly cloudy skies in that area with patchy fog after midnight.
Lows mainly 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - Increasing chances of wet weather from N/W beginning Monday Night
 - Potential offshore low for late Wednesday into Thursday
 - Keeping it dry and near-seasonable for Friday into the Weekend

*/ DISCUSSION...

While the Pacific North American pattern shifts positive into July
per ridging over the W CONUS with troughing over the Great Lakes
region into the NE CONUS, New England seemingly resides on the E
periphery of the trough. Subsequently and as been the trend of late,
continued maintenance of the Atlantic ridge with sub-tropical flow
along the N perhiphery of which yields a sqeeze play of subsidence
mainly SW to NE across the Gulf of Maine into SE New England up
against synoptic disturbances approaching from the N and W. The
overall dry pattern looks to continue with many locations recording
rainfall deficits on the order of around 3 to 6 inches since the
beginning of the year. Considering the forecast for the next week,
this trend looks to continue for SE portions of New England. A non-
GFS consensus is preferred with heavier weighting towards ensemble
probabalistics and means.

From Monday through Wednesday, will see an increasing influx of
moisture throughout the atmospheric profile per S flow and as
surface dewpoints rise into the 60s. Potentially some issues with
marine stratus and fog early on over S/SE New England. Precipitable
waters increasing on up around 1.5 inches ahead of low to mid level
synoptics beneath broad diffluence aloft out of the N/W invoking a
favorable environment of forcing and lift along a slow moving cool
front. Can not rule out some pre-frontal bounaries out ahead.
Overall the expectation is that with each day PoPs will increase out
of the N/W as the more favorable environment approaches throughout
which the atmospheric profile becomes more conditionallTonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.y unstable.
Difficult to nail down cloud cover and potential diurnal forcing
possibly yielding surface based instability, but aside, looking at
the broader view of ingredients gives weight and confidence towards
PoP trends which again are to gradually increase out of the N and W
with time. Monday should be dry, but overnight into Tuesday any
activity expected over Upstate NY into PA should drift E with the
mean wind before dissipating in prevailing high pressure and drier
air S/E. This environment slowly shifts E yielding the best chances
for wet weather over a majority of the forecast area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Again, preference to the slower solutions up against
a retrograding H5 low offshore. GFS seems just a tad too fast.

From Wednesday on into Thursday, will have to watch how efficiently
and effectively mid-level synoptics round the broad troughing
pattern invoke surface cyclogenesis and low pressure along the long-
standing stalled sub-tropical front over the SE CONUS and off the
Mid-Atlantic. How the surface low evolves, how far N its pulled by
lower heights to the N, whether it can brush New England and bring
forth more rain or rather if it stays offshore and we stay dry. EC
ensemble exhibits a trend but is widely spread on low location, so a
low confidence forecast. Some cooler air behind the system coupled
with forcing per additional mid-level energy, could see some
activity spark across the interior with diurnal heating of available
moisture providing the lift through the atmosphere.

For Friday on into the weekend will keep it dry. Contined troughing
aloft but will keep it absent of forcing for the time being. Hold
temperatures near seasonable with the expectation of both heat and
humidity building over the timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...

0z update...no major changes to the forecast.

Tonight and Sunday...High Confidence. VFR. Low risk for patchy
MVFR conditions in fog late after midnight tonight in normally
prone locations.

Sunday night...Moderate Confidence. VFR north of the MA Pike and
much of northern CT. VFR initially over RI and southeast MA. Then
potential for IFR ceilings and patchy IFR fog overspreading that
region and possibly northeast CT toward daybreak Monday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light winds tonight. Winds shift
back to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday, then light southerly
Sunday night. Some potential for a thin layer of IFR ceilings
toward daybreak Monday, especially south of KBOS.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sunday night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds. Potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. IFR-LIFR stratus
possible, mainly thinking S/SE of the CT-MA border, including
southeast MA. Increasing chances of RA out of the N/W beginning
Monday night. Highest likelihood Tuesday into Wednesday. TEMPO MVFR
possible, at least low-end VFR. Can not rule out the potential risk
of TSRA.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. RA impacts with the potential TSRA risk
continuing with additional weather possibility across interior New
England. Winds backing out of the N/W.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.

730 pm update...no major changes to the forecast.

Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday night as
high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds with the potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. Could
see some visibility restrictions with low clouds and fog. Otherwise
prevalent S flow likely to generate swell and seas above 5 feet
towards the later half of the period. Rain chances increase towards
this timeframe, though it is possible aside from aforementioned
soupy weather, conditions could remain relatively dry.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. How close it will brush New England remains
uncertain though it does appear forecast trends do not have it
sticking around for long. Would expect wet weather and perhaps some
enhancement in wind and wave conditions for a brief period out on
the waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sipprell/GAF
NEAR TERM...Sipprell/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Sipprell/GAF
MARINE...Sipprell/GAF




000
FXUS61 KALY 252307
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
707 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
At 645pm...Diurnal cu are dissipating and region is under high
pressure at all levels of the atmosphere. Skies will be clear with
light winds for the short summer solstice week night. Some patchy
fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage to out
in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help temperatures to
fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 252307
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
707 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
At 645pm...Diurnal cu are dissipating and region is under high
pressure at all levels of the atmosphere. Skies will be clear with
light winds for the short summer solstice week night. Some patchy
fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage to out
in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help temperatures to
fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 252024
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure controlling the weather with a clear sky. Some
patchy fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage
to out in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help
temperatures to fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251952
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
352 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift to the south of our
region, with very warm and dry conditions through Monday.
An approaching cool front brings showers and possibly some
thunder beginning Monday night and continuing through Thursday.
High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for the end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
350 PM update

Daytime cumulus clouds in the higher terrain of central and
western sections will diminish around sunset. Otherwise, with high
pressure over the region, expecting a clear night with calm
conditions. Just some patchy fog toward daybreak in the typically
prone locations. With good radiational cooling, temperatures will
fall back to the upper 40s to lower 50s in the normally colder
areas of interior eastern MA to the lower Cape and Marthas
Vineyard, ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban
centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. Mostly sunny and very warm
humidities still on the comfortable side. 925 mb temperatures
will be 2 or 3 degrees warmer than today, which means that high
temperatures could approach 90 degrees in the Connecticut River
valley, with mid and upper 80s across the rest of interior
southern New England. Onshore sea breezes will once again keep
coastal areas cooler...in the mid and upper 70s.

Sunday night...

Clear skies initially. With continued southerly flow, dewpoints
will slowly rise to the upper 50s along the south coast. The NAM
1000 mb Relative Humidity forecast shows a distinct area of
marine-layer stratus invading the coast and then moving across
southeast MA, RI, and perhaps northeast CT toward Monday morning.
While the NAM may be overdoing this, have forecast partly to
mostly cloudy skies in that area with patchy fog after midnight.
Lows mainly 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - Increasing chances of wet weather from N/W beginning Monday Night
 - Potential offshore low for late Wednesday into Thursday
 - Keeping it dry and near-seasonable for Friday into the Weekend

*/ DISCUSSION...

While the Pacific North American pattern shifts positive into July
per ridging over the W CONUS with troughing over the Great Lakes
region into the NE CONUS, New England seemingly resides on the E
periphery of the trough. Subsequently and as been the trend of late,
continued maintenance of the Atlantic ridge with sub-tropical flow
along the N perhiphery of which yields a sqeeze play of subsidence
mainly SW to NE across the Gulf of Maine into SE New England up
against synoptic disturbances approaching from the N and W. The
overall dry pattern looks to continue with many locations recording
rainfall deficits on the order of around 3 to 6 inches since the
beginning of the year. Considering the forecast for the next week,
this trend looks to continue for SE portions of New England. A non-
GFS consensus is preferred with heavier weighting towards ensemble
probabalistics and means.

From Monday through Wednesday, will see an increasing influx of
moisture throughout the atmospheric profile per S flow and as
surface dewpoints rise into the 60s. Potentially some issues with
marine stratus and fog early on over S/SE New England. Precipitable
waters increasing on up around 1.5 inches ahead of low to mid level
synoptics beneath broad diffluence aloft out of the N/W invoking a
favorable environment of forcing and lift along a slow moving cool
front. Can not rule out some pre-frontal bounaries out ahead.
Overall the expectation is that with each day PoPs will increase out
of the N/W as the more favorable environment approaches throughout
which the atmospheric profile becomes more conditionallTonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.y unstable.
Difficult to nail down cloud cover and potential diurnal forcing
possibly yielding surface based instability, but aside, looking at
the broader view of ingredients gives weight and confidence towards
PoP trends which again are to gradually increase out of the N and W
with time. Monday should be dry, but overnight into Tuesday any
activity expected over Upstate NY into PA should drift E with the
mean wind before dissipating in prevailing high pressure and drier
air S/E. This environment slowly shifts E yielding the best chances
for wet weather over a majority of the forecast area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Again, preference to the slower solutions up against
a retrograding H5 low offshore. GFS seems just a tad too fast.

From Wednesday on into Thursday, will have to watch how efficiently
and effectively mid-level synoptics round the broad troughing
pattern invoke surface cyclogenesis and low pressure along the long-
standing stalled sub-tropical front over the SE CONUS and off the
Mid-Atlantic. How the surface low evolves, how far N its pulled by
lower heights to the N, whether it can brush New England and bring
forth more rain or rather if it stays offshore and we stay dry. EC
ensemble exhibits a trend but is widely spread on low location, so a
low confidence forecast. Some cooler air behind the system coupled
with forcing per additional mid-level energy, could see some
activity spark across the interior with diurnal heating of available
moisture providing the lift through the atmosphere.

For Friday on into the weekend will keep it dry. Contined troughing
aloft but will keep it absent of forcing for the time being. Hold
temperatures near seasonable with the expectation of both heat and
humidity building over the timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...

Tonight and Sunday...High Confidence. VFR. Low risk for patchy
MVFR conditions in fog late after midnight tonight in normally
prone locations.

Sunday night...Moderate Confidence. VFR north of the MA Pike and
much of northern CT. VFR initially over RI and southeast MA. Then
potential for IFR ceilings and patchy IFR fog overspreading that
region and possibly northeast CT toward daybreak Monday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds around 10 kt late this
afternoon becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back to E-SE
around 10 kt by midday Sunday, then light southerly Sunday night.
Some potential for a thin layer of IFR ceilings toward daybreak
Monday, especially south of KBOS.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sunday night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds. Potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. IFR-LIFR stratus
possible, mainly thinking S/SE of the CT-MA border, including
southeast MA. Increasing chances of RA out of the N/W beginning
Monday night. Highest likelihood Tuesday into Wednesday. TEMPO MVFR
possible, at least low-end VFR. Can not rule out the potential risk
of TSRA.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. RA impacts with the potential TSRA risk
continuing with additional weather possibility across interior New
England. Winds backing out of the N/W.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.

Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday night as
high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds with the potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. Could
see some visibility restrictions with low clouds and fog. Otherwise
prevalent S flow likely to generate swell and seas above 5 feet
towards the later half of the period. Rain chances increase towards
this timeframe, though it is possible aside from aforementioned
soupy weather, conditions could remain relatively dry.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. How close it will brush New England remains
uncertain though it does appear forecast trends do not have it
sticking around for long. Would expect wet weather and perhaps some
enhancement in wind and wave conditions for a brief period out on
the waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Field/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Field
SHORT TERM...Field
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Field/Sipprell
MARINE...Field/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251952
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
352 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift to the south of our
region, with very warm and dry conditions through Monday.
An approaching cool front brings showers and possibly some
thunder beginning Monday night and continuing through Thursday.
High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for the end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
350 PM update

Daytime cumulus clouds in the higher terrain of central and
western sections will diminish around sunset. Otherwise, with high
pressure over the region, expecting a clear night with calm
conditions. Just some patchy fog toward daybreak in the typically
prone locations. With good radiational cooling, temperatures will
fall back to the upper 40s to lower 50s in the normally colder
areas of interior eastern MA to the lower Cape and Marthas
Vineyard, ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban
centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. Mostly sunny and very warm
humidities still on the comfortable side. 925 mb temperatures
will be 2 or 3 degrees warmer than today, which means that high
temperatures could approach 90 degrees in the Connecticut River
valley, with mid and upper 80s across the rest of interior
southern New England. Onshore sea breezes will once again keep
coastal areas cooler...in the mid and upper 70s.

Sunday night...

Clear skies initially. With continued southerly flow, dewpoints
will slowly rise to the upper 50s along the south coast. The NAM
1000 mb Relative Humidity forecast shows a distinct area of
marine-layer stratus invading the coast and then moving across
southeast MA, RI, and perhaps northeast CT toward Monday morning.
While the NAM may be overdoing this, have forecast partly to
mostly cloudy skies in that area with patchy fog after midnight.
Lows mainly 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - Increasing chances of wet weather from N/W beginning Monday Night
 - Potential offshore low for late Wednesday into Thursday
 - Keeping it dry and near-seasonable for Friday into the Weekend

*/ DISCUSSION...

While the Pacific North American pattern shifts positive into July
per ridging over the W CONUS with troughing over the Great Lakes
region into the NE CONUS, New England seemingly resides on the E
periphery of the trough. Subsequently and as been the trend of late,
continued maintenance of the Atlantic ridge with sub-tropical flow
along the N perhiphery of which yields a sqeeze play of subsidence
mainly SW to NE across the Gulf of Maine into SE New England up
against synoptic disturbances approaching from the N and W. The
overall dry pattern looks to continue with many locations recording
rainfall deficits on the order of around 3 to 6 inches since the
beginning of the year. Considering the forecast for the next week,
this trend looks to continue for SE portions of New England. A non-
GFS consensus is preferred with heavier weighting towards ensemble
probabalistics and means.

From Monday through Wednesday, will see an increasing influx of
moisture throughout the atmospheric profile per S flow and as
surface dewpoints rise into the 60s. Potentially some issues with
marine stratus and fog early on over S/SE New England. Precipitable
waters increasing on up around 1.5 inches ahead of low to mid level
synoptics beneath broad diffluence aloft out of the N/W invoking a
favorable environment of forcing and lift along a slow moving cool
front. Can not rule out some pre-frontal bounaries out ahead.
Overall the expectation is that with each day PoPs will increase out
of the N/W as the more favorable environment approaches throughout
which the atmospheric profile becomes more conditionallTonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.y unstable.
Difficult to nail down cloud cover and potential diurnal forcing
possibly yielding surface based instability, but aside, looking at
the broader view of ingredients gives weight and confidence towards
PoP trends which again are to gradually increase out of the N and W
with time. Monday should be dry, but overnight into Tuesday any
activity expected over Upstate NY into PA should drift E with the
mean wind before dissipating in prevailing high pressure and drier
air S/E. This environment slowly shifts E yielding the best chances
for wet weather over a majority of the forecast area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Again, preference to the slower solutions up against
a retrograding H5 low offshore. GFS seems just a tad too fast.

From Wednesday on into Thursday, will have to watch how efficiently
and effectively mid-level synoptics round the broad troughing
pattern invoke surface cyclogenesis and low pressure along the long-
standing stalled sub-tropical front over the SE CONUS and off the
Mid-Atlantic. How the surface low evolves, how far N its pulled by
lower heights to the N, whether it can brush New England and bring
forth more rain or rather if it stays offshore and we stay dry. EC
ensemble exhibits a trend but is widely spread on low location, so a
low confidence forecast. Some cooler air behind the system coupled
with forcing per additional mid-level energy, could see some
activity spark across the interior with diurnal heating of available
moisture providing the lift through the atmosphere.

For Friday on into the weekend will keep it dry. Contined troughing
aloft but will keep it absent of forcing for the time being. Hold
temperatures near seasonable with the expectation of both heat and
humidity building over the timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...

Tonight and Sunday...High Confidence. VFR. Low risk for patchy
MVFR conditions in fog late after midnight tonight in normally
prone locations.

Sunday night...Moderate Confidence. VFR north of the MA Pike and
much of northern CT. VFR initially over RI and southeast MA. Then
potential for IFR ceilings and patchy IFR fog overspreading that
region and possibly northeast CT toward daybreak Monday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds around 10 kt late this
afternoon becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back to E-SE
around 10 kt by midday Sunday, then light southerly Sunday night.
Some potential for a thin layer of IFR ceilings toward daybreak
Monday, especially south of KBOS.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sunday night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds. Potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. IFR-LIFR stratus
possible, mainly thinking S/SE of the CT-MA border, including
southeast MA. Increasing chances of RA out of the N/W beginning
Monday night. Highest likelihood Tuesday into Wednesday. TEMPO MVFR
possible, at least low-end VFR. Can not rule out the potential risk
of TSRA.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. RA impacts with the potential TSRA risk
continuing with additional weather possibility across interior New
England. Winds backing out of the N/W.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.

Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday night as
high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

S winds with the potential for gusts up to 20 kts at times. Could
see some visibility restrictions with low clouds and fog. Otherwise
prevalent S flow likely to generate swell and seas above 5 feet
towards the later half of the period. Rain chances increase towards
this timeframe, though it is possible aside from aforementioned
soupy weather, conditions could remain relatively dry.

Thursday...Low confidence.

Offshore low possible. How close it will brush New England remains
uncertain though it does appear forecast trends do not have it
sticking around for long. Would expect wet weather and perhaps some
enhancement in wind and wave conditions for a brief period out on
the waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Field/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Field
SHORT TERM...Field
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Field/Sipprell
MARINE...Field/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KALY 251746
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
146 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming in areas around higher terrain with daytime
heating. There could be a sprinkle or two from some of the clouds
due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to carry in the
forecast.

For this afternoon...High pressure will be directly overhead
across our region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251743
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
143 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
140 PM update

Sunny skies continue in eastern MA and RI with partly sunny skies
in western MA and northern CT. Atmosphere is very dry so despite
instability in western areas, am not expecting any showers.
A brief isolated one cannot be ruled out along the immediate slopes
of the Berkshires late this afternoon. Temperatures already had
reached the mid 80s across much of the interior but they should be
holding there. Pleasant 70s along the coast where light onshore
sea breezes will continue until sundown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

This afternoon...VFR. Light winds interior, with northeast to
east onshore sea breezes around 10 kt along the coast becoming
southeast.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds around 10 kt becoming
light S tonight. Winds shift back to E-SE around 10 kt by midday
Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday as high
pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT/GAF
MARINE...WTB/EVT/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251743
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
143 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
140 PM update

Sunny skies continue in eastern MA and RI with partly sunny skies
in western MA and northern CT. Atmosphere is very dry so despite
instability in western areas, am not expecting any showers.
A brief isolated one cannot be ruled out along the immediate slopes
of the Berkshires late this afternoon. Temperatures already had
reached the mid 80s across much of the interior but they should be
holding there. Pleasant 70s along the coast where light onshore
sea breezes will continue until sundown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

This afternoon...VFR. Light winds interior, with northeast to
east onshore sea breezes around 10 kt along the coast becoming
southeast.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds around 10 kt becoming
light S tonight. Winds shift back to E-SE around 10 kt by midday
Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday as high
pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT/GAF
MARINE...WTB/EVT/GAF




000
FXUS61 KALY 251708
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming in areas around higher terrain with daytime
heating. There could be a sprinkle or two from some of the clouds
due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to carry in the
forecast.

For this afternoon...High pressure will be directly overhead
across our region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 251708
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming in areas around higher terrain with daytime
heating. There could be a sprinkle or two from some of the clouds
due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to carry in the
forecast.

For this afternoon...High pressure will be directly overhead
across our region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251427
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1027 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM update

High pressure overhead with generally clear skies and light wind.
Onshore sea breeze winds have already taken hold along the coast
Have upped temperature forecast by 3 to 5 degrees in some areas
per current readings, which were already into the mid 70s as of
10 AM. Expecting a sunny day in central and eastern areas with
scattered clouds developing in western sections this afternoon.
Highs reaching the mid 80s except 70s at the coast.

Lifted Indices of -4 in western MA and Surface CAPE near 1000
there this afternoon, too, but K indices in the 20s indicate that
the atmosphere is quite dry. Mesoscale models do show a potential
for isolated showers in the immediate slopes of the Berkshires
from 2-5 PM. For now, have introduced a 10-15 percent probability
for the immediate slopes of the Berkshires, which acknowledges
this but still keeps it out of the worded forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Today...VFR. Light winds, with east to southeast onshore sea
breezes along the coast up to around 10 kt.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds increasing to around
10 kt becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back to E-SE around
10 kt by midday Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Expect winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday
as high pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT/GAF
MARINE...WTB/EVT/GAF




000
FXUS61 KALY 251419
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1019 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming around the eastern Catskills and with daytime
heating some scattered clouds will form in all areas of terrain.
Area 12Z soundings show some instability across the region once
daytime highs are reached but very littel moisture and virtually
no low level forcing. There could be a sprinkle or two from some
of the clouds due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to
carry in the forecast.

For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 251419
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1019 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming around the eastern Catskills and with daytime
heating some scattered clouds will form in all areas of terrain.
Area 12Z soundings show some instability across the region once
daytime highs are reached but very littel moisture and virtually
no low level forcing. There could be a sprinkle or two from some
of the clouds due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to
carry in the forecast.

For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251044
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
644 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM update

High pressure overhead with generally clear skies and light wind.
Dew points are 45 to 55. This is lower/drier than the long-term
average for June 25th of 55 to 58, but still much higher than the
extreme low values for June 25th of 33 to 36.

This is your all-purpose fair weather day with the light flow
allowing sea breezes along the coasts. No changes to the forecast.

Previous discussion

W-E high pressure ridge axis sitting from W NY state to the Gulf
of Maine will slowly shift to the S coast during the day today.
Expect a generally light E-SE wind, becoming more southerly across
N CT and the CT valley this afternoon. With a light pressure
gradient, sea breezes will kick in by midday with speeds up to
around 10 kt.

With a very dry airmass in place through the layer, expect excellent
subsidence through the day even with fair lapse rates as H5 temps of
-14C to -15C. Do note some afternoon showers trying to develop, but
mainly across the Hudson Valley into the northern mountains of
NH/VT as winds become more S there.

Expect temps to rise to the 80s away from the coast, highest across
the CT valley where a 90 degree reading may be possible, while
holding in the 70s along the immediate coast.  It will feel
comfortable though as dewpts remain in the lower-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Today...VFR. Light S-SE winds, becoming sea breezes along the
coast up to around 10 kt by midday.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds increasing to around
10 kt by midday today becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back
to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Expect winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday
as high pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 251028
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
628 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 615 AM EDT...Clear skies and seasonable conditions
prevailed across the forecast area early this morning with
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 251015
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
615 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 615 AM EDT...Clear skies and seasonable conditions
prevailed across the forecast area early this morning with
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 06Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in control.
There is a slight chance of fog formation at KGFL/KPSF early this
morning before sunrise, but confidence is too low to mention in
TAFs. Otherwise, just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some
passing high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250837
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
437 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Clear skies continue across the region at 08Z. Noting patchy low
clouds and fog across some of the normally susceptible spots of E
Mass extending down to the lower Cape and Martha`s Vineyard. Temps
have dropped back to 45-50 from KBED-KEWB, with the lowest reading
of 43 on the Vineyard, and even 47 at KPVC as winds have dropped
off to calm.

W-E high pressure ridge axis sitting from W NY state to the Gulf of
Maine will slowly shift to the S coast during the day today.
Expect a generally light E-SE wind, becoming more southerly across
N CT and the CT valley this afternoon. With a light pressure
gradient, sea breezes will kick in by midday with speeds up to
around 10 kt.

With a very dry airmass in place through the layer, expect excellent
subsidence through the day even with fair lapse rates as H5 temps of
-14C to -15C. Do note some afternoon showers trying to develop, but
mainly across the Hudson Valley into the northern mountains of
NH/VT as winds become more S there.

Expect temps to rise to the 80s away from the coast, highest across
the CT valley where a 90 degree reading may be possible, while
holding in the 70s along the immediate coast.  It will feel
comfortable though as dewpts remain in the lower-mid 50s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Through 12Z...VFR. Patchy fog with MVFR-IFR across interior E
Mass to KMVY/KFMH.

Today...VFR. Light S-SE winds, becoming sea breezes along the
coast up to around 10 kt by midday.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds increasing to around
10 kt by midday today becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back
to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Expect winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday
as high pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250837
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
437 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Clear skies continue across the region at 08Z. Noting patchy low
clouds and fog across some of the normally susceptible spots of E
Mass extending down to the lower Cape and Martha`s Vineyard. Temps
have dropped back to 45-50 from KBED-KEWB, with the lowest reading
of 43 on the Vineyard, and even 47 at KPVC as winds have dropped
off to calm.

W-E high pressure ridge axis sitting from W NY state to the Gulf of
Maine will slowly shift to the S coast during the day today.
Expect a generally light E-SE wind, becoming more southerly across
N CT and the CT valley this afternoon. With a light pressure
gradient, sea breezes will kick in by midday with speeds up to
around 10 kt.

With a very dry airmass in place through the layer, expect excellent
subsidence through the day even with fair lapse rates as H5 temps of
-14C to -15C. Do note some afternoon showers trying to develop, but
mainly across the Hudson Valley into the northern mountains of
NH/VT as winds become more S there.

Expect temps to rise to the 80s away from the coast, highest across
the CT valley where a 90 degree reading may be possible, while
holding in the 70s along the immediate coast.  It will feel
comfortable though as dewpts remain in the lower-mid 50s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Through 12Z...VFR. Patchy fog with MVFR-IFR across interior E
Mass to KMVY/KFMH.

Today...VFR. Light S-SE winds, becoming sea breezes along the
coast up to around 10 kt by midday.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds increasing to around
10 kt by midday today becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back
to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Expect winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday
as high pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250756
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
356 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early
next week keeping warm and dry conditions across the region.
Warmest days will be Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest
temperatures inland. An approaching cold front brings showers and
psoobly some thunder later Monday night through Wednesday. High
pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for the end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 PM Update...

Mainly clear skies across the region at 02Z. Noting a few mid
level clouds moving across near the E slopes of the Berkshires of
NW Mass, along with some mid and high clouds scrapping across the
islands from the northern fringe of scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms moving E at around 40N southward.

With high pressure across the region and winds dropping off to
near calm, temps will continue to fall back especially in the
normally cooler valley. Seeing temps down to the mid 50s across
interior E Mass and even at Martha`s Vineyard with calm winds.
Could see patchy radiation fog developing in those areas after 1
or 2 AM through around sunrise. Otherwise, expect clear
conditions overnight for most of the area.

Near term forecast pretty much on track. Have updated to bring
conditions current and incorporated into the overnight trends.

Previous discussion...

With the ideal radiational cooling conditions followed the cooler
MET and MAV guidance as 2m temps too warm in this pattern for
overnight mins.

Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the
typically prone locations.

Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon
across the Islands and Cape Cod as shortwave energy in the WNW
flow aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the mid-Atlantic coast
and tracks eastward, south of 40N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Saturday...

High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting
afternoon sea breezes. However, with mean mid-level trough axis
just offshore, cold temps aloft linger across southern New
England with H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level
lapse rates, however should be enough deep layer dry air within
the column to offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of
isolated afternoon showers in the high terrain however this is a
result of its dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with
surface ridge over the area and other model guidance limiting dew
pts to the 50s. Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue
with a dry forecast.

Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and
warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the
cooling afternoon sea breezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast.
Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been
overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend.

Sat night...

High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another
comfortable cool night with low dew pts, light winds and mostly
clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows
in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours
of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focussing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal trough
may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Overnight...VFR. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR after 06Z-07Z for a
few hours in the typically prone locations.

Saturday and Saturday night...VFR with light and variable winds
inland, then sea breezes along the coast by midday or earlier
Saturday. Low risk again for patchy MVFR conditions in fog late
Sat night in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light SE winds will become
light/variable overnight. Winds then shift back to SE Sat
morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early mornign fog. Also
brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night
yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track
southeast of 40N/70W Saturday.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through
the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially Tuesday and
Wednesday early mornings.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms with
brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 250745
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 06Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in control.
There is a slight chance of fog formation at KGFL/KPSF early this
morning before sunrise, but confidence is too low to mention in
TAFs. Otherwise, just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some
passing high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 250526
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...Mainly clear and mild conditions prevailed
across the forecast area with temperatures in the mid 50s to upper
60s.

Lows tonight will not be as cool a previous nights. Looking for
temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with some 40s across the
higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks. There may also be some
patchy fog around toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 06Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in control.
There is a slight chance of fog formation at KGFL/KPSF early this
morning before sunrise, but confidence is too low to mention in
TAFs. Otherwise, just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some
passing high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 250526
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...Mainly clear and mild conditions prevailed
across the forecast area with temperatures in the mid 50s to upper
60s.

Lows tonight will not be as cool a previous nights. Looking for
temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with some 40s across the
higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks. There may also be some
patchy fog around toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 06Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in control.
There is a slight chance of fog formation at KGFL/KPSF early this
morning before sunrise, but confidence is too low to mention in
TAFs. Otherwise, just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some
passing high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 250415
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1215 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...Mainly clear and mild conditions prevailed
across the forecast area with temperatures in the mid 50s to upper
60s.

Lows tonight will not be as cool a previous nights. Looking for
temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with some 40s across the
higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks. There may also be some
patchy fog around toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heights will rise especially during the day Saturday as ridging
builds in. Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds will continue
to dissipate this evening. Expecting clear skies tonight with
some thin cirrus to stream overhead on Saturday. Some patchy fog
may form in spots late tonight/early Saturday morning; however
confidence is not high enough to mention in KPSF TAF.

Winds will become light/variable to calm overnight with a light
south-southeast flow develop on Saturday. At KPSF...the light
flow is expected to be more westerly on Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




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