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000
FXUS61 KBOX 100010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE..

STILL NOTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE
MA...BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY NE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS REACHING FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AT 23Z. NOT SEEING TOO MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR...MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ON ORDER OF 7 TO 10
DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

***SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR 7 PM UPDATES***

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS
LOW RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN CT AND MA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*** SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND THE SOUTH COAST ***

WEDNESDAY ...

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER OR JUST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP NICELY AS A PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS MESOSCALE ATTRIBUTES COME INTO
PLAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC
/6.5C-KM/ AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8C/KM ALONG WITH TT NEARING 60!
FURTHERMORE THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED...POTENTIALLY OFFERING A STRONG
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUID IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SIMULATING
THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE 12Z GFS IS MOST ROBUST BUT MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND
NY AND THEN MOVE ENE OVER BID-MVY AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI. THUS GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BURST IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN CT-MA.

WHILE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THE IMPACT WOULD
RESULT FROM A QUICK 1-2" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE GFS
SIMULATION IS CORRECT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-4" ARE POSSIBLE.

TIMELINE...SNOW SHOWERS APPROACH WESTERN CT-MA INCLUDING
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AROUND 12Z...THUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
15Z-18Z AND POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON-
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR TIL 21Z. HENCE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE HERE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN
PUBLIC AWARENESS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND ALSO ADDRESS THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THIS WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT BEING SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT MUCH EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
THE BIG STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS
YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE
HAD...09/12Z EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!  THUS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW IS UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS THE
TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW MA...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS. REMAINING DRY THROUGH 06Z...THEN CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM
WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN
TWO INCHES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT ...

LIGHT WINDS BUT LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
OF MA AND RI. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER MAINLY DRY AND GOOD
VSBY.

WED ...

LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES. VSBY MAY LOWER
BELOW 1 MILE IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN OVER FIVE FEET.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES INCREASES. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE
WARNINGS BEING NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
7 PM UPDATE...STILL SEEING SURGE VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FEET ON
THE RI SOUTH COAST...1 TO 1.5 FEET ON THE MA EAST COAST...AND 3
FEET AT CHATHAM. ALONG MUCH OF THE MA EAST COAST THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS TONIGHT AS THIS HIGH TIDE IS THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES FOR THE DAY.

ON THE SOUTH COAST OF RI THIS SUSTAINED SURGE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME SPLASHOVER AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY WITHIN NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE PROVIDENCE...NEWPORT...AND FALL RIVER. THIS HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AROUND 830 PM THIS EVENING.

FINALLY...TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE AT CHATHAM IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDES FOR TODAY. THIS PLUS THE 3 FOOT SURGE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN CHATHAM...
AND POSSIBLY ALONG OTHER PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF CAPE COD. HIGH
TIDE HERE WILL OCCUR AROUND 1 AM.

THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE RI SOUTH
COAST AND FOR CAPE COD FOR TONIGHT. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE
WITHIN NARRAGANSETT BAY AROUND 830PM TONIGHT AND AROUND CHATHAM AT
1AM.

ASTRO TIDES REMAIN HIGH TOMORROW WITH MIDDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON
ALMOST 12 FT. HOWEVER WITH LACK OF SURGE AND SEAS CONTINUING TO
ERODE DON/T THINK ANY COASTAL FLOODING WILL MATERIALIZE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA/RLG



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000
FXUS61 KALY 100004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
MAINLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS EASTWARD.
THE SNOW IS MORE OF THE "AGGREGATE" TYPE...BIGGER FLAKES THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT MORE SHOWERY. UNFORTUNATELY MOST MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING
THIS CURRENT TREND. THESE WERE TIED INTO AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR WEST
AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SPINNING OFF AN UPPER AIR LOW STILL PARKED
TO OUR WEST IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

THERE MIGHT BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE HEAD LIKELY HEAD THIS WAY LATER OVERNIGHT
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY HEADS OUR WAY.
GENERALLY THE BARK WILL BE WORSE THAN THE BITE IN THAT THESE SHOULD
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...AROUND AN INCH OR SO IN THE VALLEYS...2 OR 3 INCHES
HIGHER TERRAIN.


TEMPS MAY INITIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S THIS
EVENING...THEN SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING. DID NOT ADJUST ANY
OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KALB/KPSF THIS EVENING...
BUT KGFL AND EVEN KPOU COULD BE AS WELL.

BEST CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS WILL BE AT KALB AND WE HAVE A TEMPO
FOR 2SM -SN OVC008 IN THAT TAF THROUGH 03Z (04Z KPSF). HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AS WELL KGFL AND KPSF. KGFL WE WENT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AT KGFL AS WELL AS KPOU AS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THESE TWO SITES HAVE
THUS FAR MISSED THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  SNOW IS LIGHT SO ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT ...WITH PERHAPS MORE IFR VSBY AS WE HEAD TOWARD MORNING
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/ELH/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 092355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

645 PM UPDATE..

STILL NOTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE
MA...BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY NE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS REACHING FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AT 23Z. NOT SEEING TOO MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR...MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ON ORDER OF 7 TO 10
DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS
LOW RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN CT AND MA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*** SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND THE SOUTH COAST ***

WEDNESDAY ...

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER OR JUST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP NICELY AS A PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS MESOSCALE ATTRIBUTES COME INTO
PLAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC
/6.5C-KM/ AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8C/KM ALONG WITH TT NEARING 60!
FURTHERMORE THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED...POTENTIALLY OFFERING A STRONG
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUID IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SIMULATING
THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE 12Z GFS IS MOST ROBUST BUT MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND
NY AND THEN MOVE ENE OVER BID-MVY AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI. THUS GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BURST IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN CT-MA.

WHILE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THE IMPACT WOULD
RESULT FROM A QUICK 1-2" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE GFS
SIMULATION IS CORRECT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-4" ARE POSSIBLE.

TIMELINE...SNOW SHOWERS APPROACH WESTERN CT-MA INCLUDING
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AROUND 12Z...THUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
15Z-18Z AND POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON-
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR TIL 21Z. HENCE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE HERE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN
PUBLIC AWARENESS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND ALSO ADDRESS THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THIS WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT BEING SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT MUCH EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
THE BIG STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS
YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE
HAD...09/12Z EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!  THUS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW IS UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS THE
TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW MA...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS. REMAINING DRY THROUGH 06Z...THEN CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM
WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN
TWO INCHES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT ...

LIGHT WINDS BUT LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
OF MA AND RI. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER MAINLY DRY AND GOOD
VSBY.

WED ...

LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES. VSBY MAY LOWER
BELOW 1 MILE IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN OVER FIVE FEET.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES INCREASES. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE
WARNINGS BEING NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 092355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

645 PM UPDATE..

STILL NOTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE
MA...BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY NE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS REACHING FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AT 23Z. NOT SEEING TOO MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR...MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ON ORDER OF 7 TO 10
DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS
LOW RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN CT AND MA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*** SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND THE SOUTH COAST ***

WEDNESDAY ...

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER OR JUST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP NICELY AS A PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS MESOSCALE ATTRIBUTES COME INTO
PLAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC
/6.5C-KM/ AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8C/KM ALONG WITH TT NEARING 60!
FURTHERMORE THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED...POTENTIALLY OFFERING A STRONG
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUID IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SIMULATING
THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE 12Z GFS IS MOST ROBUST BUT MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND
NY AND THEN MOVE ENE OVER BID-MVY AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI. THUS GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BURST IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN CT-MA.

WHILE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THE IMPACT WOULD
RESULT FROM A QUICK 1-2" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE GFS
SIMULATION IS CORRECT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-4" ARE POSSIBLE.

TIMELINE...SNOW SHOWERS APPROACH WESTERN CT-MA INCLUDING
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AROUND 12Z...THUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
15Z-18Z AND POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON-
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR TIL 21Z. HENCE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE HERE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN
PUBLIC AWARENESS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND ALSO ADDRESS THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THIS WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT BEING SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT MUCH EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
THE BIG STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS
YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE
HAD...09/12Z EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!  THUS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW IS UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS THE
TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW MA...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS. REMAINING DRY THROUGH 06Z...THEN CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM
WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN
TWO INCHES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT ...

LIGHT WINDS BUT LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
OF MA AND RI. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER MAINLY DRY AND GOOD
VSBY.

WED ...

LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES. VSBY MAY LOWER
BELOW 1 MILE IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN OVER FIVE FEET.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES INCREASES. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE
WARNINGS BEING NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 092355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

645 PM UPDATE..

STILL NOTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE
MA...BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY NE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS REACHING FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AT 23Z. NOT SEEING TOO MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR...MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ON ORDER OF 7 TO 10
DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS
LOW RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN CT AND MA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*** SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND THE SOUTH COAST ***

WEDNESDAY ...

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER OR JUST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP NICELY AS A PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS MESOSCALE ATTRIBUTES COME INTO
PLAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC
/6.5C-KM/ AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8C/KM ALONG WITH TT NEARING 60!
FURTHERMORE THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED...POTENTIALLY OFFERING A STRONG
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUID IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SIMULATING
THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE 12Z GFS IS MOST ROBUST BUT MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND
NY AND THEN MOVE ENE OVER BID-MVY AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI. THUS GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BURST IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN CT-MA.

WHILE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THE IMPACT WOULD
RESULT FROM A QUICK 1-2" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE GFS
SIMULATION IS CORRECT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-4" ARE POSSIBLE.

TIMELINE...SNOW SHOWERS APPROACH WESTERN CT-MA INCLUDING
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AROUND 12Z...THUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
15Z-18Z AND POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON-
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR TIL 21Z. HENCE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE HERE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN
PUBLIC AWARENESS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND ALSO ADDRESS THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THIS WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT BEING SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT MUCH EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
THE BIG STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS
YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE
HAD...09/12Z EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!  THUS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW IS UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS THE
TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW MA...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS. REMAINING DRY THROUGH 06Z...THEN CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM
WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN
TWO INCHES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT ...

LIGHT WINDS BUT LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
OF MA AND RI. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER MAINLY DRY AND GOOD
VSBY.

WED ...

LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES. VSBY MAY LOWER
BELOW 1 MILE IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN OVER FIVE FEET.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES INCREASES. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE
WARNINGS BEING NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 092355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

645 PM UPDATE..

STILL NOTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE
MA...BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY NE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS REACHING FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AT 23Z. NOT SEEING TOO MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR...MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ON ORDER OF 7 TO 10
DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS
LOW RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN CT AND MA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*** SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND THE SOUTH COAST ***

WEDNESDAY ...

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER OR JUST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP NICELY AS A PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS MESOSCALE ATTRIBUTES COME INTO
PLAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC
/6.5C-KM/ AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8C/KM ALONG WITH TT NEARING 60!
FURTHERMORE THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED...POTENTIALLY OFFERING A STRONG
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUID IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SIMULATING
THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE 12Z GFS IS MOST ROBUST BUT MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND
NY AND THEN MOVE ENE OVER BID-MVY AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI. THUS GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BURST IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN CT-MA.

WHILE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THE IMPACT WOULD
RESULT FROM A QUICK 1-2" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE GFS
SIMULATION IS CORRECT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-4" ARE POSSIBLE.

TIMELINE...SNOW SHOWERS APPROACH WESTERN CT-MA INCLUDING
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AROUND 12Z...THUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
15Z-18Z AND POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON-
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR TIL 21Z. HENCE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE HERE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN
PUBLIC AWARENESS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND ALSO ADDRESS THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THIS WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT BEING SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT MUCH EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
THE BIG STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS
YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE
HAD...09/12Z EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!  THUS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW IS UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS THE
TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW MA...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS. REMAINING DRY THROUGH 06Z...THEN CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM
WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN
TWO INCHES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT ...

LIGHT WINDS BUT LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
OF MA AND RI. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER MAINLY DRY AND GOOD
VSBY.

WED ...

LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES. VSBY MAY LOWER
BELOW 1 MILE IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN OVER FIVE FEET.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES INCREASES. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE
WARNINGS BEING NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 092355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

645 PM UPDATE..

STILL NOTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE
MA...BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY NE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS REACHING FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AT 23Z. NOT SEEING TOO MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR...MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ON ORDER OF 7 TO 10
DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS
LOW RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN CT AND MA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*** SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND THE SOUTH COAST ***

WEDNESDAY ...

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER OR JUST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP NICELY AS A PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS MESOSCALE ATTRIBUTES COME INTO
PLAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC
/6.5C-KM/ AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8C/KM ALONG WITH TT NEARING 60!
FURTHERMORE THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED...POTENTIALLY OFFERING A STRONG
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUID IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SIMULATING
THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE 12Z GFS IS MOST ROBUST BUT MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND
NY AND THEN MOVE ENE OVER BID-MVY AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI. THUS GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BURST IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN CT-MA.

WHILE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THE IMPACT WOULD
RESULT FROM A QUICK 1-2" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE GFS
SIMULATION IS CORRECT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-4" ARE POSSIBLE.

TIMELINE...SNOW SHOWERS APPROACH WESTERN CT-MA INCLUDING
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AROUND 12Z...THUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
15Z-18Z AND POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON-
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR TIL 21Z. HENCE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE HERE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN
PUBLIC AWARENESS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND ALSO ADDRESS THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THIS WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT BEING SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT MUCH EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
THE BIG STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS
YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE
HAD...09/12Z EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!  THUS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW IS UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS THE
TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW MA...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS. REMAINING DRY THROUGH 06Z...THEN CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM
WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN
TWO INCHES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT ...

LIGHT WINDS BUT LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
OF MA AND RI. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER MAINLY DRY AND GOOD
VSBY.

WED ...

LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES. VSBY MAY LOWER
BELOW 1 MILE IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN OVER FIVE FEET.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES INCREASES. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE
WARNINGS BEING NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 092136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH EVEN SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN...CLOUDS HAVE
RAPIDLY THICKENED ONCE AGAIN...AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE
EXPANDING N AND E...ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS SNOW TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...AS YET ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SWINGS AROUND THE
S/E PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST. INCREASING FORCING
SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO INCREASE FROM W TO E...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL F-GEN WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS.

TEMPS MAY INITIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S THIS
EVENING...THEN SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 092135
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE ...

STILL BENEFITING FROM MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING OCEAN STORM.
LEFTOVER LIGHT MOIST NNE FLOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WAS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW PELLETS.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS LOW RISK
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN CT AND MA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLYCOOL TEMPS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*** SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND THE SOUTH COAST ***

WEDNESDAY ...

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER OR JUST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP NICELY AS A PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS MESOSCALE ATTRIBUTES COME INTO
PLAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC
/6.5C-KM/ AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8C/KM ALONG WITH TT NEARING 60!
FURTHERMORE THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED...POTENTIALLY OFFERING A STRONG
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUID IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SIMULATING
THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE 12Z GFS IS MOST ROBUST BUT MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND
NY AND THEN MOVE ENE OVER BID-MVY AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI. THUS GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BURST IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN CT-MA.

WHILE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THE IMPACT WOULD
RESULT FROM A QUICK 1-2" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE GFS
SIMULATION IS CORRECT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-4" ARE POSSIBLE.

TIMELINE...SNOW SHOWERS APPROACH WESTERN CT-MA INCLUDING
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AROUND 12Z...THUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
15Z-18Z AND POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON-
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR TIL 21Z. HENCE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE HERE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN
PUBLIC AWARENESS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND ALSO ADDRESS THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THIS WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT BEING SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT MUCH EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
THE BIG STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS
YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE
HAD...09/12Z EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!  THUS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW IS UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS THE
TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1830Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY DRY AND MVFR-VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY
COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND VFR. DRY THROUGH 06Z THEN THE RISK OF
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM WITH
A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN TWO
INCHES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.  BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT ...

LIGHT WINDS BUT LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
OF MA AND RI. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER MAINLY DRY AND GOOD
VSBY.

WED ...

LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES. VSBY MAY LOWER
BELOW 1 MILE IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN OVER FIVE FEET.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES INCREASES. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE
WARNINGS BEING NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRO TIDES REMAIN HIGH TOMORROW WITH MIDDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON
ALMOST 12 FT. HOWEVER WITH LACK OF SURGE AND SEAS CONTINUING TO
ERODE DON/T THINK ANY COASTAL FLOODING WILL MATERIALIZE.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 091827
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
127 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

115 PM UPDATE ...

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON BACKSIDE OF OCEAN LOW ABLE TO PARTIALLY ERODE
THRU CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM OVERSPREADING MUCH OF EASTERN CT/RI AND
EASTERN MA KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME OCEAN EFFECT
FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH INTO CAPE COD.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO
OFFSET THE COLD TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1830Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY DRY AND MVFR-VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY
COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND VFR. DRY THROUGH 06Z THEN THE RISK OF
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM WITH
A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRO TIDES AND LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE INTO THE EASTERN MA WATERS WILL RESULT IN A
ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE WATER LEVELS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE
LARGE WAVE ACTION ON TOP OF THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 091827
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
127 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

115 PM UPDATE ...

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON BACKSIDE OF OCEAN LOW ABLE TO PARTIALLY ERODE
THRU CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM OVERSPREADING MUCH OF EASTERN CT/RI AND
EASTERN MA KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME OCEAN EFFECT
FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH INTO CAPE COD.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO
OFFSET THE COLD TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1830Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY DRY AND MVFR-VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY
COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND VFR. DRY THROUGH 06Z THEN THE RISK OF
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM WITH
A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRO TIDES AND LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE INTO THE EASTERN MA WATERS WILL RESULT IN A
ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE WATER LEVELS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE
LARGE WAVE ACTION ON TOP OF THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 091827
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
127 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

115 PM UPDATE ...

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON BACKSIDE OF OCEAN LOW ABLE TO PARTIALLY ERODE
THRU CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM OVERSPREADING MUCH OF EASTERN CT/RI AND
EASTERN MA KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME OCEAN EFFECT
FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH INTO CAPE COD.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO
OFFSET THE COLD TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1830Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY DRY AND MVFR-VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY
COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND VFR. DRY THROUGH 06Z THEN THE RISK OF
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM WITH
A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRO TIDES AND LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE INTO THE EASTERN MA WATERS WILL RESULT IN A
ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE WATER LEVELS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE
LARGE WAVE ACTION ON TOP OF THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 091827
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
127 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

115 PM UPDATE ...

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON BACKSIDE OF OCEAN LOW ABLE TO PARTIALLY ERODE
THRU CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM OVERSPREADING MUCH OF EASTERN CT/RI AND
EASTERN MA KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME OCEAN EFFECT
FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH INTO CAPE COD.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO
OFFSET THE COLD TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1830Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY DRY AND MVFR-VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY
COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND VFR. DRY THROUGH 06Z THEN THE RISK OF
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM WITH
A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRO TIDES AND LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE INTO THE EASTERN MA WATERS WILL RESULT IN A
ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE WATER LEVELS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE
LARGE WAVE ACTION ON TOP OF THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 091827
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
127 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

115 PM UPDATE ...

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON BACKSIDE OF OCEAN LOW ABLE TO PARTIALLY ERODE
THRU CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS FROM OFFSHORE STORM OVERSPREADING MUCH OF EASTERN CT/RI AND
EASTERN MA KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME OCEAN EFFECT
FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH INTO CAPE COD.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO
OFFSET THE COLD TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1830Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY DRY AND MVFR-VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY
COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND VFR. DRY THROUGH 06Z THEN THE RISK OF
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY ... LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-VFR LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA AND RI WITH A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES HEAVIER ACTIVITY TRACK. CURRENT INDICATES IS
BID-MVY-ACK AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI INTO MA. SNOWFALL OF
1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH AN 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CAN CHANGE SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AM WITH
A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. HOWEVER TIME WINDOW IS 10Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRO TIDES AND LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE INTO THE EASTERN MA WATERS WILL RESULT IN A
ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE WATER LEVELS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE
LARGE WAVE ACTION ON TOP OF THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 091732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IS ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE PERSISTING FARTHER N AND NW...MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD...SO OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH ACROSS NW AREAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

AS SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER/MID 30S...WHILE HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST...SUCH AS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 091732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IS ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE PERSISTING FARTHER N AND NW...MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD...SO OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH ACROSS NW AREAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

AS SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER/MID 30S...WHILE HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST...SUCH AS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 091732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IS ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE PERSISTING FARTHER N AND NW...MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD...SO OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH ACROSS NW AREAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

AS SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER/MID 30S...WHILE HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST...SUCH AS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 091724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1224 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 091617
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1015 AM UPDATE...

TWO AREAS OF INTEREST ON RADAR...FIRST IS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SECTION OF CT AND MA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK CIRCULATING
IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND AS A RESULT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
PULLING OUT THIS REGION AND INTO VT AND NE NY STATE.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON RADAR IS SOME OCEAN EFFECT LIGHT SNOWS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. 12Z CHH
SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF -8C AT H9 WITH SST OF +6C YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
14C...WHICH SUPPORTS OES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
OTHER THAN NUISANCE TYPE MINOR ACCUMULATION AT MOST. THE LIGHT
NNE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN THE OCEAN LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION.

OTHERWISE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE OES MAY PERSIST. IN FACT SOME BREAKS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE OVERCAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

===================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

15Z UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY
WILL BE OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR-VFR. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN LIGHT SN EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLE...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRO TIDES AND LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE INTO THE EASTERN MA WATERS WILL RESULT IN A
ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE WATER LEVELS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE
LARGE WAVE ACTION ON TOP OF THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 091508
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

TWO AREAS OF INTEREST ON RADAR...FIRST IS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SECTION OF CT AND MA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK CIRCULATING
IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND AS A RESULT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
PULLING OUT THIS REGION AND INTO VT AND NE NY STATE.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON RADAR IS SOME OCEAN EFFECT LIGHT SNOWS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. 12Z CHH
SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF -8C AT H9 WITH SST OF +6C YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
14C...WHICH SUPPORTS OES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
OTHER THAN NUISANCE TYPE MINOR ACCUMULATION AT MOST. THE LIGHT
NNE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN THE OCEAN LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION.

OTHERWISE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE OES MAY PERSIST. IN FACT SOME BREAKS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE OVERCAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

===================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

15Z UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY
WILL BE OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR-VFR. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN LIGHT SN EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLE...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 091508
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

TWO AREAS OF INTEREST ON RADAR...FIRST IS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SECTION OF CT AND MA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK CIRCULATING
IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND AS A RESULT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
PULLING OUT THIS REGION AND INTO VT AND NE NY STATE.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON RADAR IS SOME OCEAN EFFECT LIGHT SNOWS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. 12Z CHH
SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF -8C AT H9 WITH SST OF +6C YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
14C...WHICH SUPPORTS OES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
OTHER THAN NUISANCE TYPE MINOR ACCUMULATION AT MOST. THE LIGHT
NNE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN THE OCEAN LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION.

OTHERWISE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE OES MAY PERSIST. IN FACT SOME BREAKS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE OVERCAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

===================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

15Z UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY
WILL BE OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR-VFR. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN LIGHT SN EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLE...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 091508
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

TWO AREAS OF INTEREST ON RADAR...FIRST IS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SECTION OF CT AND MA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK CIRCULATING
IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND AS A RESULT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
PULLING OUT THIS REGION AND INTO VT AND NE NY STATE.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON RADAR IS SOME OCEAN EFFECT LIGHT SNOWS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. 12Z CHH
SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF -8C AT H9 WITH SST OF +6C YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
14C...WHICH SUPPORTS OES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
OTHER THAN NUISANCE TYPE MINOR ACCUMULATION AT MOST. THE LIGHT
NNE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN THE OCEAN LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION.

OTHERWISE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE OES MAY PERSIST. IN FACT SOME BREAKS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE OVERCAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

===================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

15Z UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY
WILL BE OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR-VFR. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN LIGHT SN EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLE...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 091508
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

TWO AREAS OF INTEREST ON RADAR...FIRST IS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SECTION OF CT AND MA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK CIRCULATING
IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND AS A RESULT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
PULLING OUT THIS REGION AND INTO VT AND NE NY STATE.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON RADAR IS SOME OCEAN EFFECT LIGHT SNOWS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. 12Z CHH
SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF -8C AT H9 WITH SST OF +6C YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
14C...WHICH SUPPORTS OES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
OTHER THAN NUISANCE TYPE MINOR ACCUMULATION AT MOST. THE LIGHT
NNE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN THE OCEAN LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION.

OTHERWISE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE OES MAY PERSIST. IN FACT SOME BREAKS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE OVERCAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

===================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

15Z UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY
WILL BE OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR-VFR. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN LIGHT SN EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLE...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 091508
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

TWO AREAS OF INTEREST ON RADAR...FIRST IS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SECTION OF CT AND MA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK CIRCULATING
IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND AS A RESULT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
PULLING OUT THIS REGION AND INTO VT AND NE NY STATE.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON RADAR IS SOME OCEAN EFFECT LIGHT SNOWS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. 12Z CHH
SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF -8C AT H9 WITH SST OF +6C YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
14C...WHICH SUPPORTS OES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
OTHER THAN NUISANCE TYPE MINOR ACCUMULATION AT MOST. THE LIGHT
NNE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN THE OCEAN LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION.

OTHERWISE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE OES MAY PERSIST. IN FACT SOME BREAKS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE OVERCAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

===================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

15Z UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY
WILL BE OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR-VFR. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN LIGHT SN EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLE...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS
YESTERDAY/S CYCLONE. EARLIER FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
MA WATERS NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND PLYMOUTH COUTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 091445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 091445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 091206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF PRECIP TO WATCH THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS AN AREA OF
VERY LIGHT FLURRIES THAT IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE JUST
NOW SLIDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THE OTHER IS SOME COASTAL ENHANCEMENT. NOTING A
DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN DWPTS BETWEEN OB SITES SUCH AS
GHG AND PYM AND INLAND...MAINLY OWD/TAN. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MAINLY NW INLAND...TO NE
NEAR SHORE. SO...A FEW OCEAN ENHANCED SHSN MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY
OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLOUDY...AND COOL TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN LIGHT SN EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLE...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 091206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF PRECIP TO WATCH THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS AN AREA OF
VERY LIGHT FLURRIES THAT IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE JUST
NOW SLIDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THE OTHER IS SOME COASTAL ENHANCEMENT. NOTING A
DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN DWPTS BETWEEN OB SITES SUCH AS
GHG AND PYM AND INLAND...MAINLY OWD/TAN. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MAINLY NW INLAND...TO NE
NEAR SHORE. SO...A FEW OCEAN ENHANCED SHSN MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY
OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLOUDY...AND COOL TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN LIGHT SN EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLE...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 091206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF PRECIP TO WATCH THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS AN AREA OF
VERY LIGHT FLURRIES THAT IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE JUST
NOW SLIDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THE OTHER IS SOME COASTAL ENHANCEMENT. NOTING A
DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN DWPTS BETWEEN OB SITES SUCH AS
GHG AND PYM AND INLAND...MAINLY OWD/TAN. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MAINLY NW INLAND...TO NE
NEAR SHORE. SO...A FEW OCEAN ENHANCED SHSN MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY
OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLOUDY...AND COOL TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN LIGHT SN EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLE...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 090931
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 431 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 090903
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERED ACROSS
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AND RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS A RESULT OF COLD NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CT/SOUTH COAST***

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATION AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.  WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF IT DOES IMPACT US THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED BUT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT.  ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES IN BY THE WED MORNING RUSH HOUR. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ALONG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE HIGH 50S TO NEAR 60
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR
IT.

FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.  AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL GO WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES AS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER NORTH.  THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT
SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TRANSITIONING SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH THE NAO/AO BEGINNING THE WEEK
STRONGLY POSITIVE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSITIVE PNA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. SO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR THIS MOST RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE TOO FAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF...INCLUDING ONE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
ARCTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM SUCH THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
GOOD. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY ON BLEND OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES FOR FRI...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG/ARCTIC
WAVE BEGINS IT/S INFLUENCE. SOME STREAM PHASING AT PLAY...WHICH
WILL CULMINATE IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL STORM. HOW CLOSE
REMAINS THE QUESTION...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG TERM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF. THIS MAY LEAD TO INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES IN THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
IS NW. SO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT. ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -18C SUGGEST
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NW
FLOW YIELDING LOW WIND CHILLS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGES OVER THE REGION SUGGESTING A MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD. -10C TO -12C H92 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. WHILE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE N...A TRANSFER OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A
BOMBING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE TO NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. HOW CLOSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE DETERMINING FACTOR IN SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER PASS EQUALS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH SNOWS/WINDS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE BLEND IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN MA. THE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30C
AND FLOW 350-020. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS ALONE.
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EVER CONSIDERED VISITING ALERT...OR DO THE QUEEN ELIZABETH
ISLANDS EXCITE YOU? IF SO YOU ARE IN LUCK...BECAUSE BACKWARD
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE COMING FROM THAT EXACT REGION. H85 TEMPS
DROP AS LOW AS -28C...NOT QUITE TO THE -30C DEVELOPING ACROSS NY.
EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH BRISK N-NW FLOW WHICH
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IF NOT
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPITE OF AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD START...AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TROF
SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH MAY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXED PRECIP EVENT. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT.TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST TODAY UNDER A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF CLOUDS.  BULK
OF THE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
BY MID MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE ANN AND INTO
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO OUR
REGION TOWARDS 12Z WED.  HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND THE SOUTH COAST AND THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT PERIODS OF SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE AGAIN A RISK FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN STORM
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
OUR OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS MAINLY W-NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...BUT DISSIPATING
BY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SEAS AROUND 7-10 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF HIGH PRES WILL YIELD W WINDS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND NW. GUSTS MAY REACH CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
BUT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH A LATE DAY RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 090611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WED MAINTAINING CLOUDS  WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

110 AM UPDATE...

WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA.  BULK
OF THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...MAINLY FROM CAPE ANN AND ONTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
COLD LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

WE DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE
SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER
ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY OVER THE OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
TOMORROW AND SPAWNS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AGAIN SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM. SO MUCH OF ITS AFFECTS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO YIELD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. COULD BE SOME OES
ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD GIVEN MOIST NE FLOW
BUT LAPSE RATES ARE MORE MARGINAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TUE NIGHT THRU THU
* COLD FRONT THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC.  THIS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COUPLED
WITH THIS IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXACT TRACK UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME... BRINGING AN ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE HAD...08/12Z
EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT POINTS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST TODAY UNDER A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF CLOUDS.  BULK
OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY 7 OR 8Z.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS AN
SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE ANN
AND INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA
PIKE...BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ON WED....BUT BRIEF IFR TO EVEN LIFR  CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  GUSTY NW
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...

HAVE CONVERTED ALL GALES TO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES AS OCEAN STORM
CONTINUES TO PULL EVEN FURTHER AWAY.  NORTHERLY SCA WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 15 AND
20 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS. THESE GRADUALLY SHOULD
SUBSIDE...BUT LEFT OVER SWELL WILL MAKE THIS A SLOW PROCESS.

TUESDAY...

NE WINDS 15-20 KT AS WEAK LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. VSBY 1-3 MILES AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN MA WATERS SOUTH OF BOSTON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS.  EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS.  SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL
 FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG SOME EAST AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES
 SOUTH OF BOSTON TONIGHT***

830 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVES AND SURGE TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. SEAS ARE
STILL RUNNING HIGH AND NOW WITH LONGER PERIODS OF 11 OR 12
SECONDS. AT 830 PM...SEAS WERE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET ACROSS MASS
BAY AND 22 TO 25 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. THE
SURGE IS ALSO RUNNING ABOVE GUIDANCE AND OUR FORECAST...HAVING
RISEN TO 3+ FEET AT NANTUCKET AND CHATHAM...AND STILL AROUND 2.4
FEET IN BOSTON. AFTER MAKING WAVE AND SURGE ADJUSTMENTS...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH
TIDE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON NANTUCKET. STILL EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND SURGE TO START TO SUBSIDE
A LITTLE BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE AND SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
HEADLINE AS AN ADVISORY VERSUS WARNING.

HAVE INDICATED IN THE UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE EROSION TONIGHT ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET AS A CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELLS BREAKING ONSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS CAN CONTAIN
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY AND HAVE A GREATER EROSION IMPACT THAN ONE
MIGHT FIRST THINK.

AND HAVE ADDED A STATEMENT TO INDICATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FROM BOSTON NORTH TO SALISBURY...AGAIN DUE TO THE LARGE
SWELLS AND THE DIFFICULTY OF THE WATER EVACUATING FROM THE HIGH
TIDE EARLIER TODAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR THIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...

PRELIMINARY REPORTS SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE SOUTH OF BOSTON
INCLUDING HULL...SCITUATE...MARSHFIELD AND NANTUCKET.

LOOKING AHEAD...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST
AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON...INCLUDING HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...SANDWICH TO DENNIS...ORLEANS TO CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND WAVE ACTION FOR AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AT OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. WE ANTICIPATE A SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FEET
PROPAGATING INTO MASS BAY AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND
14 TO 18 FEET JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LONGER PERIODS OF PERHAPS 11 TO 13 SECONDS
IMPLIES GREATER ENERGY WAVES MOVING ONTO THE SHORELINE...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL WAVE RUNUP OUTPUT DEPICTING SPLASH
OVER AT OUR SCITUATE EXPERIMENTAL LOCATION.

WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW THE ETSS SURGE GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE THE
ESTOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT LOW
BIAS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH AND
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED IN SPEED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT RUNS ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT
LOWER THAN THE MON LATE MORNING TIDE...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.
TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN EAST FACING PROTECTIVE BAYS/HARBORS AND SPLASHOVER
FROM THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG THE OPEN SHORELINE. SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

A FEW ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE PARTICULARLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE DUE TO A RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
SWELL AND POSSIBLE SURGE NEAR ONE FOOT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 090611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WED MAINTAINING CLOUDS  WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

110 AM UPDATE...

WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA.  BULK
OF THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST...MAINLY FROM CAPE ANN AND ONTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
COLD LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

WE DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE
SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER
ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY OVER THE OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
TOMORROW AND SPAWNS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AGAIN SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM. SO MUCH OF ITS AFFECTS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO YIELD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. COULD BE SOME OES
ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD GIVEN MOIST NE FLOW
BUT LAPSE RATES ARE MORE MARGINAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TUE NIGHT THRU THU
* COLD FRONT THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC.  THIS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COUPLED
WITH THIS IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXACT TRACK UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME... BRINGING AN ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE HAD...08/12Z
EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT POINTS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST TODAY UNDER A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF CLOUDS.  BULK
OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY 7 OR 8Z.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS AN
SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE ANN
AND INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA
PIKE...BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ON WED....BUT BRIEF IFR TO EVEN LIFR  CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  GUSTY NW
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...

HAVE CONVERTED ALL GALES TO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES AS OCEAN STORM
CONTINUES TO PULL EVEN FURTHER AWAY.  NORTHERLY SCA WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 15 AND
20 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS. THESE GRADUALLY SHOULD
SUBSIDE...BUT LEFT OVER SWELL WILL MAKE THIS A SLOW PROCESS.

TUESDAY...

NE WINDS 15-20 KT AS WEAK LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. VSBY 1-3 MILES AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN MA WATERS SOUTH OF BOSTON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS.  EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS.  SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL
 FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG SOME EAST AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES
 SOUTH OF BOSTON TONIGHT***

830 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVES AND SURGE TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. SEAS ARE
STILL RUNNING HIGH AND NOW WITH LONGER PERIODS OF 11 OR 12
SECONDS. AT 830 PM...SEAS WERE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET ACROSS MASS
BAY AND 22 TO 25 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. THE
SURGE IS ALSO RUNNING ABOVE GUIDANCE AND OUR FORECAST...HAVING
RISEN TO 3+ FEET AT NANTUCKET AND CHATHAM...AND STILL AROUND 2.4
FEET IN BOSTON. AFTER MAKING WAVE AND SURGE ADJUSTMENTS...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH
TIDE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON NANTUCKET. STILL EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND SURGE TO START TO SUBSIDE
A LITTLE BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE AND SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
HEADLINE AS AN ADVISORY VERSUS WARNING.

HAVE INDICATED IN THE UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE EROSION TONIGHT ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET AS A CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELLS BREAKING ONSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS CAN CONTAIN
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY AND HAVE A GREATER EROSION IMPACT THAN ONE
MIGHT FIRST THINK.

AND HAVE ADDED A STATEMENT TO INDICATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FROM BOSTON NORTH TO SALISBURY...AGAIN DUE TO THE LARGE
SWELLS AND THE DIFFICULTY OF THE WATER EVACUATING FROM THE HIGH
TIDE EARLIER TODAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR THIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...

PRELIMINARY REPORTS SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE SOUTH OF BOSTON
INCLUDING HULL...SCITUATE...MARSHFIELD AND NANTUCKET.

LOOKING AHEAD...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST
AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON...INCLUDING HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...SANDWICH TO DENNIS...ORLEANS TO CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND WAVE ACTION FOR AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AT OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. WE ANTICIPATE A SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FEET
PROPAGATING INTO MASS BAY AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND
14 TO 18 FEET JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LONGER PERIODS OF PERHAPS 11 TO 13 SECONDS
IMPLIES GREATER ENERGY WAVES MOVING ONTO THE SHORELINE...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL WAVE RUNUP OUTPUT DEPICTING SPLASH
OVER AT OUR SCITUATE EXPERIMENTAL LOCATION.

WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW THE ETSS SURGE GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE THE
ESTOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT LOW
BIAS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH AND
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED IN SPEED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT RUNS ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT
LOWER THAN THE MON LATE MORNING TIDE...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.
TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN EAST FACING PROTECTIVE BAYS/HARBORS AND SPLASHOVER
FROM THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG THE OPEN SHORELINE. SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

A FEW ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE PARTICULARLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE DUE TO A RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
SWELL AND POSSIBLE SURGE NEAR ONE FOOT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 090552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EST...OUR REGION IS STARTING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH IS
BECOMING CLOSED OFF...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW PROGRESS OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM IS OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY....WITH
AN ADDITIONAL SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER VIRGINA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE DEPARTING
COASTAL WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR REGION. AS
THE COASTAL STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE...THIS SNOWFALL IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE. A FEW
LINGERING BANDS ORIENTED IN A NW-SE FASHION CONTINUE...ESP OVER
CENTRAL NY...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. BASED ON THE LATEST 3KM HRRR...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
CONTINUOUS AND STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL JUST BE A COATING TO HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.

ALONG WITH THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TEENS AND MID 20S...WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE
TROUGH INTRODUCING COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS
WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR
MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS
COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR ANY SQUALLS IS NOT
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES AS WE NEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 090333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EST...A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WAS WORKING
INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WAS ISSUED REGARDING IT.

IT LOOKS AS IF IT SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH PUT COULD
PUT DOWN AN INCH IN A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR/S TIME IN SOME
PLACES BEFORE IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

THIS BAND APPEARS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM THE EDGE OF THE LARGE OCEAN STORM.

AFTER THAT BANDS GOES THROUGH...EXPECT ONLY PERIODS OF LIGHT
OR SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LITTLE SNOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WILL KEEP THE WINTER ADVISORY FOR
THAT COUNTY A LITTLE LONGER.

STILL LOOKING FOR A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN MOST PLACES
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY...IT LOOKS AS IF THEY WILL RECEIVE
AN AVERAGE OF 3-6 INCHES.


SOME MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) STILL ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. THIS TAKES PLACE WHEN THE WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE
NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND
EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL. A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL WORK OVER KALB THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SO VISIBILITIES THERE
COULD GO DOWN TO 1/2SM (HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THEM THROUGH
04Z.

AFTER THE SNOW TAPER TO FLURRIES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS
(LOW MVFR WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 090218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

THE BULK OF THE STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DISTANT OCEAN STORM MOVES EVEN FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TUE AND WED MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

915 PM UPDATE...

DESPITE OCEAN STORM MOVING EVEN FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  OVERALL...MOST PLACES MAY PICKUP
ANOTHER HALF TO 1 INCH OF SNOW...BEFORE THE BULK OF IT COMES TO AN
END AFTER MIDNIGHT.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY FROM COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY AND ONTO COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD WITH SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ON NORTH WINDS.

WILL LET WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING.  TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING OFF THE MILDER OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY OVER THE OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
TOMORROW AND SPAWNS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AGAIN SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM. SO MUCH OF ITS AFFECTS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO YIELD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. COULD BE SOME OES
ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD GIVEN MOIST NE FLOW
BUT LAPSE RATES ARE MORE MARGINAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TUE NIGHT THRU THU
* COLD FRONT THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC.  THIS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COUPLED
WITH THIS IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXACT TRACK UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME... BRINGING AN ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE HAD...08/12Z
EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT POINTS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF SNOW ENDING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...SNOW COULD END AN HOUR
OR TWO SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHSN. EXPECTED
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  GUSTY NW
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...

HAVE CONVERTED ALL GALES TO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES AS OCEAN STORM
CONTINUES TO PULL EVEN FURTHER AWAY.  NORTHERLY SCA WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 15 AND
20 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS. THESE GRADUALLY SHOULD
SUBSIDE...BUT LEFT OVER SWELL WILL MAKE THIS A SLOW PROCESS.

TUESDAY...

NE WINDS 15-20 KT AS WEAK LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. VSBY 1-3 MILES AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN MA WATERS SOUTH OF BOSTON.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS.  EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS.  SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL
 FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG SOME EAST AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES
 SOUTH OF BOSTON TONIGHT***

830 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVES AND SURGE TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. SEAS ARE
STILL RUNNING HIGH AND NOW WITH LONGER PERIODS OF 11 OR 12
SECONDS. AT 830 PM...SEAS WERE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET ACROSS MASS
BAY AND 22 TO 25 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. THE
SURGE IS ALSO RUNNING ABOVE GUIDANCE AND OUR FORECAST...HAVING
RISEN TO 3+ FEET AT NANTUCKET AND CHATHAM...AND STILL AROUND 2.4
FEET IN BOSTON. AFTER MAKING WAVE AND SURGE ADJUSTMENTS...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH
TIDE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON NANTUCKET. STILL EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND SURGE TO START TO SUBSIDE
A LITTLE BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE AND SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
HEADLINE AS AN ADVISORY VERSUS WARNING.

HAVE INDICATED IN THE UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE EROSION TONIGHT ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET AS A CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELLS BREAKING ONSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS CAN CONTAIN
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY AND HAVE A GREATER EROSION IMPACT THAN ONE
MIGHT FIRST THINK.

AND HAVE ADDED A STATEMENT TO INDICATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FROM BOSTON NORTH TO SALISBURY...AGAIN DUE TO THE LARGE
SWELLS AND THE DIFFICULTY OF THE WATER EVACUATING FROM THE HIGH
TIDE EARLIER TODAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR THIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...

PRELIMINARY REPORTS SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE SOUTH OF BOSTON
INCLUDING HULL...SCITUATE...MARSHFIELD AND NANTUCKET.

LOOKING AHEAD...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST
AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON...INCLUDING HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...SANDWICH TO DENNIS...ORLEANS TO CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND WAVE ACTION FOR AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AT OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. WE ANTICIPATE A SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FEET
PROPAGATING INTO MASS BAY AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND
14 TO 18 FEET JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LONGER PERIODS OF PERHAPS 11 TO 13 SECONDS
IMPLIES GREATER ENERGY WAVES MOVING ONTO THE SHORELINE...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL WAVE RUNUP OUTPUT DEPICTING SPLASH
OVER AT OUR SCITUATE EXPERIMENTAL LOCATION.

WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW THE ETSS SURGE GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE THE
ESTOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT LOW
BIAS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH AND
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED IN SPEED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT RUNS ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT
LOWER THAN THE MON LATE MORNING TIDE...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.
TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN EAST FACING PROTECTIVE BAYS/HARBORS AND SPLASHOVER
FROM THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG THE OPEN SHORELINE. SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

A FEW ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE PARTICULARLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE DUE TO A RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
SWELL AND POSSIBLE SURGE NEAR ONE FOOT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MAZ002>024-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-
     024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 090201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
900 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...RADARS INDICATED THAT BANDS OF LIGHT TO EVEN
AT TIMES MODERATE SNOW...STILL WORKING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION.
IN FACT...WHILE MOISTURE "BACKED IN" FROM THE DEPARTING POWERFUL
STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THESE BANDS OF
SNOW WHICH WERE NO MOVING FROM SW TO NE (AS OPPOSED TO SE-NW WHICH
THEY WERE DOING DURING THE AFTERNOON).

FOR THIS REASON...EXTENDED THE SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWLY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CALL IT PERIODS OF SNOW...REALLY
MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT OCCASIONAL SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IN
MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 3-6 ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN CLOSE TO AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WERE
HALF AN INCH OR LESS PER HOUR. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON WESTWARD LOOKS
TO RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

BTW...WE HAVE HAD A TWITTER REPORT OF 5 INCHES JUST ESE OF NEW MILFORD
WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL. PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC STATEMENTS
FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

SO...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR LITCHFIELD WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) STILL ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS TAKES PLACE
WHEN THE WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.


OVERNIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THEN END...WITH LITTLE OR OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL.

VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE 1-2 MILES (AGAIN LIGHT SNOW)
BEFORE IMPROVING TO OVER 6 MILES OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE SNOW LEAVES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS (LOW MVFR
WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
     BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 090145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD AT LATE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEAWARD. HOWEVER PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE AND WED MAINTAINING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...SNOW INTENSITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING
WITH THE STRONGEST SNOW JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
GIVEN THIS TREND AND THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WE ARE REPLACING ALL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH TO POSSIBLY AS
MUCH AS THREE ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE BEST AREAS OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT.

EXPECT SNOW TO START COMING TO AN END ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND CONNECTICUT FIRST...LIKELY BY 9-10 PM...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO
BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS.

430 PM UPDATE...

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE
COD OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEAWARD.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SYSTEMS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/
FIREHOSE LIFTING INTO ME AND THE MARITIMES PER LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE. HOWEVER WV AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS NICE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT/
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO DUAL
UPPER JET COUPLETS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS
MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THUS EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM
A COATING UPWARDS TO 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA INTO THE 4-8" FOR STORM TOTALS BY LATE
THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS STORM TOTAL OF 2-5 INCHES SHOULD DO IT.

HOWEVER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE ANN/PLYMOUTH
COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE...OES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z-06Z
AS BLYR WINDS REMAIN NNE THRU THAT TIME. THIS MOIST TRAJECTORY
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES
UP TO 250 J/KG WILL LIKELY YIELD AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" ACROSS THIS
REGION. THUS STORM TOTALS OF 8-12" ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE
COD ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 16" POSSIBLE. AFTER
06Z BLYR WINDS BACK TO THE NNW AND THIS WILL END THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL FETCH INTO PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD.

SNOWFALL MAP HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CURRENT THINKING.

STRONG WINDS ...

LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AS PGRADIENT SLACKENS WITH
DEPARTING OCEAN STORM. THUS STRONG WINDS OVER EASTERN COASTAL MA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

MISC ...

ONE POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO VARYING QPF SOLUTIONS FROM THE
MODELS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WAS THE LACK OF SPECIAL 06Z/18Z
SOUNDINGS/BALLOON LAUNCHES LEADING UP TO THE DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY DROPSONDES FROM AIRCRAFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY OVER THE OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
TOMORROW AND SPAWNS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AGAIN SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM. SO MUCH OF ITS AFFECTS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO YIELD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. COULD BE SOME OES
ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD GIVEN MOIST NE FLOW
BUT LAPSE RATES ARE MORE MARGINAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TUE NIGHT THRU THU
* COLD FRONT THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC.  THIS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COUPLED
WITH THIS IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXACT TRACK UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME... BRINGING AN ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE HAD...08/12Z
EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT POINTS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF SNOW ENDING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...SNOW COULD END AN HOUR
OR TWO SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHSN. EXPECTED
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  GUSTY NW
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

NNE GALES BECOME SUBGALE AROUND 02Z/9PM AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.
HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF
MA AND RI WITH SEAS 15 TO 20 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES BUT IMPROVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...

NE WINDS 15-20 KT AS WEAK LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. VSBY 1-3 MILES AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN MA WATERS SOUTH OF BOSTON.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS.  EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS.  SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL
 FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG SOME EAST AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES
 SOUTH OF BOSTON TONIGHT***

830 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVES AND SURGE TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. SEAS ARE
STILL RUNNING HIGH AND NOW WITH LONGER PERIODS OF 11 OR 12
SECONDS. AT 830 PM...SEAS WERE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET ACROSS MASS
BAY AND 22 TO 25 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. THE
SURGE IS ALSO RUNNING ABOVE GUIDANCE AND OUR FORECAST...HAVING
RISEN TO 3+ FEET AT NANTUCKET AND CHATHAM...AND STILL AROUND 2.4
FEET IN BOSTON. AFTER MAKING WAVE AND SURGE ADJUSTMENTS...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH
TIDE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON NANTUCKET. STILL EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND SURGE TO START TO SUBSIDE
A LITTLE BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE AND SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
HEADLINE AS AN ADVISORY VERSUS WARNING.

HAVE INDICATED IN THE UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE EROSION TONIGHT ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET AS A CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELLS BREAKING ONSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS CAN CONTAIN
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY AND HAVE A GREATER EROSION IMPACT THAN ONE
MIGHT FIRST THINK.

AND HAVE ADDED A STATEMENT TO INDICATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FROM BOSTON NORTH TO SALISBURY...AGAIN DUE TO THE LARGE
SWELLS AND THE DIFFICULTY OF THE WATER EVACUATING FROM THE HIGH
TIDE EARLIER TODAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR THIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...

PRELIMINARY REPORTS SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE SOUTH OF BOSTON
INCLUDING HULL...SCITUATE...MARSHFIELD AND NANTUCKET.

LOOKING AHEAD...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST
AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON...INCLUDING HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...SANDWICH TO DENNIS...ORLEANS TO CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND WAVE ACTION FOR AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AT OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. WE ANTICIPATE A SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FEET
PROPAGATING INTO MASS BAY AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND
14 TO 18 FEET JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LONGER PERIODS OF PERHAPS 11 TO 13 SECONDS
IMPLIES GREATER ENERGY WAVES MOVING ONTO THE SHORELINE...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL WAVE RUNUP OUTPUT DEPICTING SPLASH
OVER AT OUR SCITUATE EXPERIMENTAL LOCATION.

WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW THE ETSS SURGE GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE THE
ESTOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT LOW
BIAS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH AND
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED IN SPEED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT RUNS ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT
LOWER THAN THE MON LATE MORNING TIDE...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.
TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN EAST FACING PROTECTIVE BAYS/HARBORS AND SPLASHOVER
FROM THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG THE OPEN SHORELINE. SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

A FEW ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE PARTICULARLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE DUE TO A RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
SWELL AND POSSIBLE SURGE NEAR ONE FOOT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MAZ002>024-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-
     024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 090145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD AT LATE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEAWARD. HOWEVER PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE AND WED MAINTAINING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...SNOW INTENSITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING
WITH THE STRONGEST SNOW JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
GIVEN THIS TREND AND THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WE ARE REPLACING ALL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH TO POSSIBLY AS
MUCH AS THREE ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE BEST AREAS OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT.

EXPECT SNOW TO START COMING TO AN END ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND CONNECTICUT FIRST...LIKELY BY 9-10 PM...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO
BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS.

430 PM UPDATE...

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE
COD OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEAWARD.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SYSTEMS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/
FIREHOSE LIFTING INTO ME AND THE MARITIMES PER LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE. HOWEVER WV AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS NICE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT/
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO DUAL
UPPER JET COUPLETS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS
MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THUS EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM
A COATING UPWARDS TO 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA INTO THE 4-8" FOR STORM TOTALS BY LATE
THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS STORM TOTAL OF 2-5 INCHES SHOULD DO IT.

HOWEVER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE ANN/PLYMOUTH
COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE...OES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z-06Z
AS BLYR WINDS REMAIN NNE THRU THAT TIME. THIS MOIST TRAJECTORY
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES
UP TO 250 J/KG WILL LIKELY YIELD AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" ACROSS THIS
REGION. THUS STORM TOTALS OF 8-12" ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE
COD ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 16" POSSIBLE. AFTER
06Z BLYR WINDS BACK TO THE NNW AND THIS WILL END THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL FETCH INTO PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD.

SNOWFALL MAP HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CURRENT THINKING.

STRONG WINDS ...

LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AS PGRADIENT SLACKENS WITH
DEPARTING OCEAN STORM. THUS STRONG WINDS OVER EASTERN COASTAL MA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

MISC ...

ONE POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO VARYING QPF SOLUTIONS FROM THE
MODELS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WAS THE LACK OF SPECIAL 06Z/18Z
SOUNDINGS/BALLOON LAUNCHES LEADING UP TO THE DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY DROPSONDES FROM AIRCRAFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY OVER THE OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
TOMORROW AND SPAWNS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AGAIN SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM. SO MUCH OF ITS AFFECTS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO YIELD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. COULD BE SOME OES
ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD GIVEN MOIST NE FLOW
BUT LAPSE RATES ARE MORE MARGINAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TUE NIGHT THRU THU
* COLD FRONT THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC.  THIS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COUPLED
WITH THIS IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXACT TRACK UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME... BRINGING AN ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE HAD...08/12Z
EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT POINTS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF SNOW ENDING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...SNOW COULD END AN HOUR
OR TWO SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHSN. EXPECTED
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  GUSTY NW
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

NNE GALES BECOME SUBGALE AROUND 02Z/9PM AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.
HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF
MA AND RI WITH SEAS 15 TO 20 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES BUT IMPROVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...

NE WINDS 15-20 KT AS WEAK LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. VSBY 1-3 MILES AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN MA WATERS SOUTH OF BOSTON.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS.  EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS.  SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL
 FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG SOME EAST AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES
 SOUTH OF BOSTON TONIGHT***

830 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVES AND SURGE TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. SEAS ARE
STILL RUNNING HIGH AND NOW WITH LONGER PERIODS OF 11 OR 12
SECONDS. AT 830 PM...SEAS WERE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET ACROSS MASS
BAY AND 22 TO 25 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. THE
SURGE IS ALSO RUNNING ABOVE GUIDANCE AND OUR FORECAST...HAVING
RISEN TO 3+ FEET AT NANTUCKET AND CHATHAM...AND STILL AROUND 2.4
FEET IN BOSTON. AFTER MAKING WAVE AND SURGE ADJUSTMENTS...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH
TIDE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON NANTUCKET. STILL EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND SURGE TO START TO SUBSIDE
A LITTLE BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE AND SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
HEADLINE AS AN ADVISORY VERSUS WARNING.

HAVE INDICATED IN THE UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE EROSION TONIGHT ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET AS A CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELLS BREAKING ONSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS CAN CONTAIN
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY AND HAVE A GREATER EROSION IMPACT THAN ONE
MIGHT FIRST THINK.

AND HAVE ADDED A STATEMENT TO INDICATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FROM BOSTON NORTH TO SALISBURY...AGAIN DUE TO THE LARGE
SWELLS AND THE DIFFICULTY OF THE WATER EVACUATING FROM THE HIGH
TIDE EARLIER TODAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR THIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...

PRELIMINARY REPORTS SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE SOUTH OF BOSTON
INCLUDING HULL...SCITUATE...MARSHFIELD AND NANTUCKET.

LOOKING AHEAD...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST
AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON...INCLUDING HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...SANDWICH TO DENNIS...ORLEANS TO CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND WAVE ACTION FOR AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AT OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. WE ANTICIPATE A SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FEET
PROPAGATING INTO MASS BAY AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND
14 TO 18 FEET JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LONGER PERIODS OF PERHAPS 11 TO 13 SECONDS
IMPLIES GREATER ENERGY WAVES MOVING ONTO THE SHORELINE...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL WAVE RUNUP OUTPUT DEPICTING SPLASH
OVER AT OUR SCITUATE EXPERIMENTAL LOCATION.

WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW THE ETSS SURGE GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE THE
ESTOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT LOW
BIAS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH AND
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED IN SPEED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT RUNS ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT
LOWER THAN THE MON LATE MORNING TIDE...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.
TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN EAST FACING PROTECTIVE BAYS/HARBORS AND SPLASHOVER
FROM THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG THE OPEN SHORELINE. SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

A FEW ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE PARTICULARLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE DUE TO A RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
SWELL AND POSSIBLE SURGE NEAR ONE FOOT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MAZ002>024-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-
     024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 090011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
711 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD AT LATE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEAWARD. HOWEVER PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE AND WED MAINTAINING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...SNOW INTENSITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING
WITH THE STRONGEST SNOW JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
GIVEN THIS TREND AND THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WE ARE REPLACING ALL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH TO POSSIBLY AS
MUCH AS THREE ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE BEST AREAS OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT.

EXPECT SNOW TO START COMING TO AN END ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND CONNECTICUT FIRST...LIKELY BY 9-10 PM...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO
BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS.

430 PM UPDATE...

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE
COD OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEAWARD.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SYSTEMS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/
FIREHOSE LIFTING INTO ME AND THE MARITIMES PER LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE. HOWEVER WV AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS NICE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT/
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO DUAL
UPPER JET COUPLETS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS
MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THUS EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM
A COATING UPWARDS TO 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA INTO THE 4-8" FOR STORM TOTALS BY LATE
THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS STORM TOTAL OF 2-5 INCHES SHOULD DO IT.

HOWEVER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE ANN/PLYMOUTH
COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE...OES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z-06Z
AS BLYR WINDS REMAIN NNE THRU THAT TIME. THIS MOIST TRAJECTORY
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES
UP TO 250 J/KG WILL LIKELY YIELD AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" ACROSS THIS
REGION. THUS STORM TOTALS OF 8-12" ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE
COD ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 16" POSSIBLE. AFTER
06Z BLYR WINDS BACK TO THE NNW AND THIS WILL END THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL FETCH INTO PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD.

SNOWFALL MAP HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CURRENT THINKING.

STRONG WINDS ...

LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AS PGRADIENT SLACKENS WITH
DEPARTING OCEAN STORM. THUS STRONG WINDS OVER EASTERN COASTAL MA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

MISC ...

ONE POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO VARYING QPF SOLUTIONS FROM THE
MODELS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WAS THE LACK OF SPECIAL 06Z/18Z
SOUNDINGS/BALLOON LAUNCHES LEADING UP TO THE DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY DROPSONDES FROM AIRCRAFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY OVER THE OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
TOMORROW AND SPAWNS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AGAIN SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM. SO MUCH OF ITS AFFECTS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO YIELD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. COULD BE SOME OES
ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD GIVEN MOIST NE FLOW
BUT LAPSE RATES ARE MORE MARGINAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TUE NIGHT THRU THU
* COLD FRONT THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC.  THIS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COUPLED
WITH THIS IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXACT TRACK UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME... BRINGING AN ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE HAD...08/12Z
EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT POINTS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF SNOW ENDING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...SNOW COULD END AN HOUR
OR TWO SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHSN. EXPECTED
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  GUSTY NW
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

NNE GALES BECOME SUBGALE AROUND 02Z/9PM AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.
HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF
MA AND RI WITH SEAS 15 TO 20 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES BUT IMPROVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...

NE WINDS 15-20 KT AS WEAK LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. VSBY 1-3 MILES AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN MA WATERS SOUTH OF BOSTON.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS.  EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS.  SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG SOME EAST AND
 NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON TONIGHT***

PRELIMINARY REPORTS SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE SOUTH OF BOSTON
INCLUDING HULL...SCITUATE...MARSHFIELD AND NANTUCKET.

LOOKING AHEAD...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST
AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON...INCLUDING HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...SANDWICH TO DENNIS...ORLEANS TO CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND WAVE ACTION FOR AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AT OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. WE ANTICIPATE A SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FEET
PROPAGATING INTO MASS BAY AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND
14 TO 18 FEET JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LONGER PERIODS OF PERHAPS 11 TO 13 SECONDS
IMPLIES GREATER ENERGY WAVES MOVING ONTO THE SHORELINE...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL WAVE RUNUP OUTPUT DEPICTING SPLASH
OVER AT OUR SCITUATE EXPERIMENTAL LOCATION.

WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW THE ETSS SURGE GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE THE
ESTOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT LOW
BIAS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH AND
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED IN SPEED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT RUNS ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT
LOWER THAN THE MON LATE MORNING TIDE...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.
TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN EAST FACING PROTECTIVE BAYS/HARBORS AND SPLASHOVER
FROM THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG THE OPEN SHORELINE. SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

A FEW ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE PARTICULARLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE DUE TO A RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
SWELL AND POSSIBLE SURGE NEAR ONE FOOT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MAZ002>024-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 082341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM...LIGHT SNOW HAS WORKED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN FACT...RADARS INDICTED SNOW
HAS REACHED BACK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS OF
SNOW THERE YET. A POWERFUL STORM WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
CAPE COD MOVING IN A NORTHEASTERLY  DIRECTION.

UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO END SOUTH OF
ALBANY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
LATER ALBANY NORTHWARD.

IN ADDITION TO UPWARD MOTION FROM A POWERFUL STORM WELL EAST OF
CAPE COD...THERE WAS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IN COMING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALSO...SOME MOHAWK
HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS TAKES PLACE WHEN THE
WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS EVENING.

EITHER WAY...THIS IS A NUISANCE SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OUR REGION (1-3
INCHES). HOWEVER...IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WE ARE LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN THAT COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL.

VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE 1-2 MILES (AGAIN LIGHT SNOW)
BEFORE IMPROVING TO OVER 6 MILES OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE SNOW LEAVES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS (LOW MVFR
WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
...BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 082341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM...LIGHT SNOW HAS WORKED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN FACT...RADARS INDICTED SNOW
HAS REACHED BACK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS OF
SNOW THERE YET. A POWERFUL STORM WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
CAPE COD MOVING IN A NORTHEASTERLY  DIRECTION.

UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO END SOUTH OF
ALBANY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
LATER ALBANY NORTHWARD.

IN ADDITION TO UPWARD MOTION FROM A POWERFUL STORM WELL EAST OF
CAPE COD...THERE WAS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IN COMING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALSO...SOME MOHAWK
HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS TAKES PLACE WHEN THE
WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS EVENING.

EITHER WAY...THIS IS A NUISANCE SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OUR REGION (1-3
INCHES). HOWEVER...IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WE ARE LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN THAT COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL.

VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE 1-2 MILES (AGAIN LIGHT SNOW)
BEFORE IMPROVING TO OVER 6 MILES OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE SNOW LEAVES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS (LOW MVFR
WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
...BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 082154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS QUITE DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ALL OF THE FA WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKPARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


AS OF 2200Z...WE WENT AHEAD AND UPDATE ALL THE TAFS AS IT IS NOW
LOOKS CERTAIN LIGHT SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS DROP CONDITIONS
TO AT LEAST IFR FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AT
KPOU AND KPSF AND UNTIL 04Z AT KALB AND KGFL.

WE MIGHT HAVE TO EXTEND THE IFR SNOW LONGER BUT FOR NOW
THIS IS OUR BEST CONFIDENCE.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST AT KGFL AND KPSF 5-10KTS...MORE
NORTHERLY AT KPOU AND KALB.

STILL THINKING ONCE THE SNOW MOVES AWAY OVERNIGHT...WE RETURN
TO VFR WITH CLOUDS BASES WELL OVER 3000 FEET AGL.

AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH
A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 082154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS QUITE DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ALL OF THE FA WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKPARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


AS OF 2200Z...WE WENT AHEAD AND UPDATE ALL THE TAFS AS IT IS NOW
LOOKS CERTAIN LIGHT SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS DROP CONDITIONS
TO AT LEAST IFR FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AT
KPOU AND KPSF AND UNTIL 04Z AT KALB AND KGFL.

WE MIGHT HAVE TO EXTEND THE IFR SNOW LONGER BUT FOR NOW
THIS IS OUR BEST CONFIDENCE.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST AT KGFL AND KPSF 5-10KTS...MORE
NORTHERLY AT KPOU AND KALB.

STILL THINKING ONCE THE SNOW MOVES AWAY OVERNIGHT...WE RETURN
TO VFR WITH CLOUDS BASES WELL OVER 3000 FEET AGL.

AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH
A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 082140
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD AT LATE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEAWARD. HOWEVER PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE AND WED MAINTAINING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...

HEADLINES ...

DESPITE SNOW INTENSITY ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE AND THEN REEVALUATE AROUND 7 PM. DITTO FOR THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AS THIS HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW YIELDING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ACROSS PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE
COD OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEAWARD.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SYSTEMS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/
FIREHOSE LIFTING INTO ME AND THE MARITIMES PER LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE. HOWEVER WV AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS NICE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT/
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO DUAL
UPPER JET COUPLETS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS
MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THUS EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM
A COATING UPWARDS TO 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA INTO THE 4-8" FOR STORM TOTALS BY LATE
THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS STORM TOTAL OF 2-5 INCHES SHOULD DO IT.

HOWEVER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE ANN/PLYMOUTH
COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE...OES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z-06Z
AS BLYR WINDS REMAIN NNE THRU THAT TIME. THIS MOIST TRAJECTORY
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES
UP TO 250 J/KG WILL LIKELY YIELD AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" ACROSS THIS
REGION. THUS STORM TOTALS OF 8-12" ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE
COD ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 16" POSSIBLE. AFTER
06Z BLYR WINDS BACK TO THE NNW AND THIS WILL END THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL FETCH INTO PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD.

SNOWFALL MAP HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CURRENT THINKING.

STRONG WINDS ...

LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AS PGRADIENT SLACKENS WITH
DEPARTING OCEAN STORM. THUS STRONG WINDS OVER EASTERN COASTAL MA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

MISC ...

ONE POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO VARYING QPF SOLUTIONS FROM THE
MODELS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WAS THE LACK OF SPECIAL 06Z/18Z
SOUNDINGS/BALLOON LAUNCHES LEADING UP TO THE DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY DROPSONDES FROM AIRCRAFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY OVER THE OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
TOMORROW AND SPAWNS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AGAIN SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM. SO MUCH OF ITS AFFECTS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO YIELD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. COULD BE SOME OES
ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD GIVEN MOIST NE FLOW
BUT LAPSE RATES ARE MORE MARGINAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TUE NIGHT THRU THU
* COLD FRONT THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC.  THIS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COUPLED
WITH THIS IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXACT TRACK UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME... BRINGING AN ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE HAD...08/12Z
EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT POINTS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THRU 00Z ...

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR WERE COMING TO AN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE ANN/COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH VSBY 1/2SM WILL EXIST AT
TIMES. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS 40-50 KT THRU 00Z.

AFTER 00Z ...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY ...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND UP TO MVFR SOMETIME 21Z-24Z. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES THRU
ABOUT 21Z THEN EASING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MARGINAL IFR/MVFR IN SNOW CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
20Z/21Z THEN TRENDING UPWARD TO MVFR. STEADIEST SNOW THRU 20/21Z
THEN DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHSN. EXPECTED
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  GUSTY NW
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT ...

NNE GALES BECOME SUBGALE AROUND 02Z/9PM AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.
HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF
MA AND RI WITH SEAS 15 TO 20 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES BUT IMPROVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY ...

NE WINDS 15-20 KT AS WEAK LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. VSBY 1-3 MILES AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN MA WATERS SOUTH OF BOSTON.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS.  EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS.  SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG SOME EAST AND
 NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON TONIGHT***

PRELIMINARY REPORTS SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE SOUTH OF BOSTON
INCLUDING HULL...SCITUATE...MARSHFIELD AND NANTUCKET.

LOOKING AHEAD...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST
ANDNORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON...INCLUDING HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...SANDWICH TO DENNIS...ORLEANS TO CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND WAVE ACTION FOR AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AT OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. WE ANTICIPATE A SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FEET
PROPAGATING INTO MASS BAY AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND
14 TO 18 FEET JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LONGER PERIODS OF PERHAPS 11 TO 13 SECONDS
IMPLIES GREATER ENERGY WAVES MOVING ONTO THE SHORELINE...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL WAVE RUNUP OUTPUT DEPICTING SPLASH
OVER AT OUR SCITUATE EXPERIMENTAL LOCATION.

WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW THE ETSS SURGE GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE THE
ESTOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT LOW
BIAS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH AND
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED IN SPEED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT RUNS ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT
LOWER THAN THE MON LATE MORNING TIDE...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.
TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN EAST FACING PROTECTIVE BAYS/HARBORS AND SPLASHOVER
FROM THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG THE OPEN SHORELINE. SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

A FEW ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE PARTICULARLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE DUE TO A RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
SWELL AND POSSIBLE SURGE NEAR ONE FOOT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>017-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-026.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 082130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD AT LATE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEAWARD. HOWEVER PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE AND WED MAINTAINING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

430 PM UPDATE...

HEADLINES ...

DESPITE SNOW INTENSITY ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE AND THEN REEVALUATE AROUND 7 PM. DITTO FOR THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AS THIS HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW YIELDING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ACROSS PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE
COD OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEAWARD.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SYSTEMS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/
FIREHOSE LIFTING INTO ME AND THE MARITIMES PER LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE. HOWEVER WV AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS NICE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT/
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO DUAL
UPPER JET COUPLETS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS
MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THUS EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM
A COATING UPWARDS TO 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA INTO THE 4-8" FOR STORM TOTALS BY LATE
THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS STORM TOTAL OF 2-5 INCHES SHOULD DO IT.

HOWEVER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE ANN/PLYMOUTH
COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE...OES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z-06Z
AS BLYR WINDS REMAIN NNE THRU THAT TIME. THIS MOIST TRAJECTORY
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES
UP TO 250 J/KG WILL LIKELY YIELD AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" ACROSS THIS
REGION. THUS STORM TOTALS OF 8-12" ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE
COD ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 16" POSSIBLE. AFTER
06Z BLYR WINDS BACK TO THE NNW AND THIS WILL END THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL FETCH INTO PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD.

SNOWFALL MAP HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CURRENT THINKING.

STRONG WINDS ...

LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AS PGRADIENT SLACKENS WITH
DEPARTING OCEAN STORM. THUS STRONG WINDS OVER EASTERN COASTAL MA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

MISC ...

ONE POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO VARYING QPF SOLUTIONS FROM THE
MODELS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WAS THE LACK OF SPECIAL 06Z/18Z
SOUNDINGS/BALLOON LAUNCHES LEADING UP TO THE DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY DROPSONDES FROM AIRCRAFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY OVER THE OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
TOMORROW AND SPAWNS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AGAIN SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM. SO MUCH OF ITS AFFECTS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO YIELD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. COULD BE SOME OES
ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD GIVEN MOIST NE FLOW
BUT LAPSE RATES ARE MORE MARGINAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TUE NIGHT THRU THU
* COLD FRONT THU
* SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC.  THIS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COUPLED
WITH THIS IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXACT TRACK UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME... BRINGING AN ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL
TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THIS IS STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE HAD...08/12Z
EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT POINTS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THRU 00Z ...

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR WERE COMING TO AN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE ANN/COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH VSBY 1/2SM WILL EXIST AT
TIMES. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS 40-50 KT THRU 00Z.

AFTER 00Z ...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY ...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND UP TO MVFR SOMETIME 21Z-24Z. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES THRU
ABOUT 21Z THEN EASING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MARGINAL IFR/MVFR IN SNOW CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
20Z/21Z THEN TRENDING UPWARD TO MVFR. STEADIEST SNOW THRU 20/21Z
THEN DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHSN. EXPECTED
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  GUSTY NW
WINDS CONTINUE.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT ...

NNE GALES BECOME SUBGALE AROUND 02Z/9PM AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.
HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF
MA AND RI WITH SEAS 15 TO 20 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES BUT IMPROVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY ...

NE WINDS 15-20 KT AS WEAK LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. VSBY 1-3 MILES AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN MA WATERS SOUTH OF BOSTON.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS.  EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS.  SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

***AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG SOME EAST AND
 NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON TONIGHT***

PRELIMINARY REPORTS SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED AS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO BE NECESSARY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS.  SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.M THE MONDAY LATE MORNING
STORM TIDE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING HULL...SCITUATE...MARSHFIELD
AND NANTUCKET.

LOOKING AHEAD...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST
AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON...INCLUDING HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...SANDWICH TO DENNIS...ORLEANS TO CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND WAVE ACTION FOR AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AT OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. WE ANTICIPATE A SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FEET
PROPAGATING INTO MASS BAY AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND
14 TO 18 FEET JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW THE ETSS SURGE GUIDANCE
BUT ABOVE THE ESTOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT LOW BIAS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTH AND CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED IN SPEED FROM EARLY MON
AFTERNOON READINGS. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT RUNS ABOUT A
HALF FOOT TO A FOOT LOWER THAN THE MON LATE MORNING TIDE...DEPENDING
UPON LOCATION. TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN EAST FACING PROTECTIVE BAYS/HARBORS AND
SPLASHOVER FROM SWELLS ALONG THE OPEN SHORELINE. SOME EROSION IS
LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE OUTER
CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

A FEW ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE PARTICULARLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE DUE TO A RESIDUAL SWELL AND
POSSIBLE SURGE NEAR ONE FOOT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW...HOWEVER...TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>017-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-026.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 082034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
334 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS QUITE DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ALL OF THE FA WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACK
PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEMS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AS SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH PERSISTENT DROPS SEEN THIS MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TOO REVEALS CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW WARMING OVER
THE REGION AND 1KM 1-MIN SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER CENTRAL NY.  WHILE SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...IT NOW APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION IS DIMINISHING WHICH FAVORS A MORE IMPROVE AVIATION
FORECAST.  WE WILL PLACE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SNOW THAT IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR.  A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT 10KTS
OR LESS.

AS UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 082003
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEAS WITH SNOW INTENSITY OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND EASING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER LIGHTER ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
225 PM UPDATE...

HEADLINE CHANGES ...

HAVE DOWNGRADED ALL OF NORTHERN CT INTO CENTRAL MA FROM WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1" PER HOUR COMING TO AN END AND
GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO ESSENTIALLY WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL OF RI AND EASTERN MA FROM CITY OF
WORCESTER EASTWARD. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE.

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/FIREHOSE IS BEGINNING TO EXIT EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND AS IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER GEORGES BANK
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SO WHILE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR GIVEN THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SNOWFALL RATES/INTENSITY ARE TRENDING
DOWNWARD AT 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAN
REALLY SEE THIS IN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS
DIMINISHING.

SNOWFALL MAP HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CURRENT THINKING.

SO THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FORWARD INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE OCEAN EFFECT ENHANCEMENT AND LAND/SEA CONVERGENCE ACROSS
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD/THIS ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY COASTAL
SECTIONS OF CAPE ANN. THUS 8-12" REMAIN LIKELY FOR THIS AREA WITH
LOCALIZED 12-18" POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RI AND NORTHEAST
MA INCLUDING GREATER BOSTON AREA 4-8" IS EXPECTED. OVER NORTHERN
CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA WE LOWERED TOTALS MAINLY INTO THE 2-5"
CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1930Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ...

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR WERE COMING TO AN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE ANN/COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH VSBY 1/2SM WILL EXIST AT
TIMES. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS 40-50 KT THRU 00Z.

AFTER 00Z ...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY ...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND UP TO MVFR SOMETIME 21Z-24Z. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES THRU
ABOUT 21Z THEN EASING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MARGINAL IFR/MVFR IN SNOW CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
20Z/21Z THEN TRENDING UPWARD TO MVFR. STEADIEST SNOW THRU 20/21Z
THEN DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG SOME EAST AND
 NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON TONIGHT***

PRELIMINARY REPORTS SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY LATE MORNING STORM TIDE SOUTH OF BOSTON
INCLUDING HULL...SCITUATE...MARSHFIELD AND NANTUCKET.

LOOKING AHEAD...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST
AND NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON...INCLUDING HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...SANDWICH TO DENNIS...ORLEANS TO CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND WAVE ACTION FOR AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AT OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. WE ANTICIPATE A SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FEET
PROPAGATING INTO MASS BAY AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND
14 TO 18 FEET JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW THE ETSS SURGE GUIDANCE
BUT ABOVE THE ESTOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT LOW BIAS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTH AND CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED IN SPEED FROM EARLY MON
AFTERNOON READINGS. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT RUNS ABOUT A
HALF FOOT TO A FOOT LOWER THAN THE MON LATE MORNING TIDE...DEPENDING
UPON LOCATION. TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN EAST FACING PROTECTIVE BAYS/HARBORS AND
SPLASHOVER FROM SWELLS ALONG THE OPEN SHORELINE. SOME EROSION IS
LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE OUTER
CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

A FEW ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE PARTICULARLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE DUE TO A RESIDUAL SWELL AND
POSSIBLE SURGE NEAR ONE FOOT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW...HOWEVER...TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>017-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-026.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 081924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
224 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEAS WITH SNOW INTENSITY OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND EASING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER LIGHTER ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

225 PM UPDATE...

HEADLINE CHANGES ...

HAVE DOWNGRADED ALL OF NORTHERN CT INTO CENTRAL MA FROM WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1" PER HOUR COMING TO AN END AND
GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO ESSENTIALLY WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL OF RI AND EASTERN MA FROM CITY OF
WORCESTER EASTWARD. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE.

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/FIREHOSE IS BEGINNING TO EXIT EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND AS IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER GEORGES BANK
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SO WHILE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR GIVEN THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SNOWFALL RATES/INTENSITY ARE TRENDING
DOWNWARD AT 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAN
REALLY SEE THIS IN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS
DIMINISHING.

SNOWFALL MAP HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CURRENT THINKING.

SO THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FORWARD INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE OCEAN EFFECT ENHANCEMENT AND LAND/SEA CONVERGENCE ACROSS
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD/THIS ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY COASTAL
SECTIONS OF CAPE ANN. THUS 8-12" REMAIN LIKELY FOR THIS AREA WITH
LOCALIZED 12-18" POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RI AND NORTHEAST
MA INCLUDING GREATER BOSTON AREA 4-8" IS EXPECTED. OVER NORTHERN
CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA WE LOWERED TOTALS MAINLY INTO THE 2-5"
CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SECTIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1930Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ...

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR WERE COMING TO AN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE ANN/COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH VSBY 1/2SM WILL EXIST AT
TIMES. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS 40-50 KT THRU 00Z.

AFTER 00Z ...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY ...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND UP TO MVFR SOMETIME 21Z-24Z. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES THRU
ABOUT 21Z THEN EASING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MARGINAL IFR/MVFR IN SNOW CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
20Z/21Z THEN TRENDING UPWARD TO MVFR. STEADIEST SNOW THRU 20/21Z
THEN DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
  ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***

915 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD...AND
NANTUCKET NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES. AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...PROJECTING SEAS APPROACHING 20 FEET MASS BAY AND 20 TO 25
FEET EAST OF THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. PRIOR SURGE
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. ANTICIPATE SURGE TO BE 1.7 TO 2.2 FEET
FROM BOSTON NORTH AND GENERALLY 2.1 TO 2.6 FEET ALONG EAST AND
NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING
SCITUATE...SANDWICH/DENNIS...PROVINCETOWN...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.

AT LEAST SOME EROSION IS EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE MA COASTLINE FROM
SALISBURY TO NANTUCKET...MOST SEVERE ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET INCLUDING SIASCONSET.

AS OF 915 PM...REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING HAVE STARTED TO COME
IN WITH PORTIONS OF OCEANSIDE ROAD AND CENTRAL AVENUE IN SCITUATE
AND THE BRANT ROCK AREA OF MARSHFIELD ALREADY IMPACTED. FLOODING
SHOULD ALREADY BE STARTING TO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF NANTUCKET
HARBOR INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY STREET.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE MA
COASTLINE FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO RESIDUAL SURGE AND
WAVE ACTION. THE WIND WILL HAVE BACKED TO A MORE N DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY LESS BY THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS
A HALF TO A LITTLE LESS THAN A FOOT LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. SEAS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
RUNNING 14 TO 18 FEET A LITTLE OFFSHORE...PERHAPS AROUND 20 FEET
STILL EAST OF NANTUCKET. THUS...AT LEAST SOME EROSION WILL LIKELY
BE WITNESSED AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COASTLINE
FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION IS STILL RELEVANT AND FOLLOWS...

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH.  IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>017-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-026.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 081924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
224 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEAS WITH SNOW INTENSITY OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND EASING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER LIGHTER ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

225 PM UPDATE...

HEADLINE CHANGES ...

HAVE DOWNGRADED ALL OF NORTHERN CT INTO CENTRAL MA FROM WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1" PER HOUR COMING TO AN END AND
GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO ESSENTIALLY WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL OF RI AND EASTERN MA FROM CITY OF
WORCESTER EASTWARD. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE.

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/FIREHOSE IS BEGINNING TO EXIT EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND AS IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER GEORGES BANK
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SO WHILE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR GIVEN THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SNOWFALL RATES/INTENSITY ARE TRENDING
DOWNWARD AT 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAN
REALLY SEE THIS IN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS
DIMINISHING.

SNOWFALL MAP HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CURRENT THINKING.

SO THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FORWARD INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE OCEAN EFFECT ENHANCEMENT AND LAND/SEA CONVERGENCE ACROSS
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD/THIS ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY COASTAL
SECTIONS OF CAPE ANN. THUS 8-12" REMAIN LIKELY FOR THIS AREA WITH
LOCALIZED 12-18" POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RI AND NORTHEAST
MA INCLUDING GREATER BOSTON AREA 4-8" IS EXPECTED. OVER NORTHERN
CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA WE LOWERED TOTALS MAINLY INTO THE 2-5"
CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SECTIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1930Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ...

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR WERE COMING TO AN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE ANN/COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH VSBY 1/2SM WILL EXIST AT
TIMES. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS 40-50 KT THRU 00Z.

AFTER 00Z ...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY ...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND UP TO MVFR SOMETIME 21Z-24Z. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES THRU
ABOUT 21Z THEN EASING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MARGINAL IFR/MVFR IN SNOW CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
20Z/21Z THEN TRENDING UPWARD TO MVFR. STEADIEST SNOW THRU 20/21Z
THEN DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
  ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***

915 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD...AND
NANTUCKET NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES. AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...PROJECTING SEAS APPROACHING 20 FEET MASS BAY AND 20 TO 25
FEET EAST OF THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. PRIOR SURGE
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. ANTICIPATE SURGE TO BE 1.7 TO 2.2 FEET
FROM BOSTON NORTH AND GENERALLY 2.1 TO 2.6 FEET ALONG EAST AND
NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING
SCITUATE...SANDWICH/DENNIS...PROVINCETOWN...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.

AT LEAST SOME EROSION IS EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE MA COASTLINE FROM
SALISBURY TO NANTUCKET...MOST SEVERE ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET INCLUDING SIASCONSET.

AS OF 915 PM...REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING HAVE STARTED TO COME
IN WITH PORTIONS OF OCEANSIDE ROAD AND CENTRAL AVENUE IN SCITUATE
AND THE BRANT ROCK AREA OF MARSHFIELD ALREADY IMPACTED. FLOODING
SHOULD ALREADY BE STARTING TO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF NANTUCKET
HARBOR INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY STREET.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE MA
COASTLINE FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO RESIDUAL SURGE AND
WAVE ACTION. THE WIND WILL HAVE BACKED TO A MORE N DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY LESS BY THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS
A HALF TO A LITTLE LESS THAN A FOOT LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. SEAS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
RUNNING 14 TO 18 FEET A LITTLE OFFSHORE...PERHAPS AROUND 20 FEET
STILL EAST OF NANTUCKET. THUS...AT LEAST SOME EROSION WILL LIKELY
BE WITNESSED AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COASTLINE
FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION IS STILL RELEVANT AND FOLLOWS...

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH.  IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>017-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-026.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 081924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
224 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEAS WITH SNOW INTENSITY OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND EASING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER LIGHTER ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

225 PM UPDATE...

HEADLINE CHANGES ...

HAVE DOWNGRADED ALL OF NORTHERN CT INTO CENTRAL MA FROM WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1" PER HOUR COMING TO AN END AND
GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO ESSENTIALLY WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL OF RI AND EASTERN MA FROM CITY OF
WORCESTER EASTWARD. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE.

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/FIREHOSE IS BEGINNING TO EXIT EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND AS IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER GEORGES BANK
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SO WHILE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR GIVEN THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SNOWFALL RATES/INTENSITY ARE TRENDING
DOWNWARD AT 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAN
REALLY SEE THIS IN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS
DIMINISHING.

SNOWFALL MAP HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CURRENT THINKING.

SO THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FORWARD INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE OCEAN EFFECT ENHANCEMENT AND LAND/SEA CONVERGENCE ACROSS
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD/THIS ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY COASTAL
SECTIONS OF CAPE ANN. THUS 8-12" REMAIN LIKELY FOR THIS AREA WITH
LOCALIZED 12-18" POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RI AND NORTHEAST
MA INCLUDING GREATER BOSTON AREA 4-8" IS EXPECTED. OVER NORTHERN
CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA WE LOWERED TOTALS MAINLY INTO THE 2-5"
CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SECTIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1930Z UPDATE ...

THRU 00Z ...

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR WERE COMING TO AN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE ANN/COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH VSBY 1/2SM WILL EXIST AT
TIMES. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS 40-50 KT THRU 00Z.

AFTER 00Z ...

MAINLY MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES CONFINED TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TUESDAY ...

MAINLY MVFR AND DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND UP TO MVFR SOMETIME 21Z-24Z. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES THRU
ABOUT 21Z THEN EASING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MARGINAL IFR/MVFR IN SNOW CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
20Z/21Z THEN TRENDING UPWARD TO MVFR. STEADIEST SNOW THRU 20/21Z
THEN DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
  ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***

915 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD...AND
NANTUCKET NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES. AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...PROJECTING SEAS APPROACHING 20 FEET MASS BAY AND 20 TO 25
FEET EAST OF THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. PRIOR SURGE
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. ANTICIPATE SURGE TO BE 1.7 TO 2.2 FEET
FROM BOSTON NORTH AND GENERALLY 2.1 TO 2.6 FEET ALONG EAST AND
NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING
SCITUATE...SANDWICH/DENNIS...PROVINCETOWN...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.

AT LEAST SOME EROSION IS EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE MA COASTLINE FROM
SALISBURY TO NANTUCKET...MOST SEVERE ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET INCLUDING SIASCONSET.

AS OF 915 PM...REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING HAVE STARTED TO COME
IN WITH PORTIONS OF OCEANSIDE ROAD AND CENTRAL AVENUE IN SCITUATE
AND THE BRANT ROCK AREA OF MARSHFIELD ALREADY IMPACTED. FLOODING
SHOULD ALREADY BE STARTING TO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF NANTUCKET
HARBOR INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY STREET.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE MA
COASTLINE FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO RESIDUAL SURGE AND
WAVE ACTION. THE WIND WILL HAVE BACKED TO A MORE N DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY LESS BY THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS
A HALF TO A LITTLE LESS THAN A FOOT LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. SEAS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
RUNNING 14 TO 18 FEET A LITTLE OFFSHORE...PERHAPS AROUND 20 FEET
STILL EAST OF NANTUCKET. THUS...AT LEAST SOME EROSION WILL LIKELY
BE WITNESSED AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COASTLINE
FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION IS STILL RELEVANT AND FOLLOWS...

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH.  IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>017-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-026.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 081741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF CAPE MAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND 976 MB...IS
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL
THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE FA AND
AS A RESULT VERY DRY AIR IS WORKING SOUTHWARD. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE CAUSING THE PRECIP
TO INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE ONE AREA WHERE
WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO BE SATURATED ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO REACH
THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A
FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SEEMS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AS SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH PERSISTENT DROPS SEEN THIS MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TOO REVEALS CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW WARMING OVER
THE REGION AND 1KM 1-MIN SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER CENTRAL NY.  WHILE SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...IT NOW APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION IS DIMINISHING WHICH FAVORS A MORE IMPROVE AVIATION
FORECAST.  WE WILL PLACE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SNOW THAT IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR.  A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT 10KTS
OR LESS.

AS UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 081739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF CAPE MAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND 976 MB...IS
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL
THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE FA AND
AS A RESULT VERY DRY AIR IS WORKING SOUTHWARD. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE CAUSINGTHE
PRECIP TO INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE ONE
AREA WHERE WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO BE SATURATED ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A
FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 081547
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1045 AM UPDATE...

HEADLINE CHANGES ...

ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS TO DOWNGRADE HARTFORD COUNTY FROM A
WARNING TO AN ADVISORY. SHALLOW COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVECTING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY IS ERODING MUCH OF THE SNOW BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HARTFORD COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN MA. THIS IS COURTSEY OF BELOW ZERO DEW PTS.
UNFORTUNATELY NONE OF THE HI RES GUID HAS DEW PTS THIS LOW. THUS
THEIR QPF FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. SO DOING A 12Z MODEL
BLEND OF 12KM NAM/4KM NAM-WRF AND RGEM WILL FORECAST 2-5" FOR
HARTFORD COUNTY...HIGHEST TOTALS SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE NO
HEADLINE CHANGES ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO TRIM SNOW TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX FOR THE SAME
REASON.

KEY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES/DETAILS ...

OTHERWISE FORECAST MORE OR LESS ON TRACK WITH HEAVY SNOW AND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. MESOSCALE ASPECTS IN PLAY TODAY WITH SHARP
SUBSIDENCE LINE IN BETWEEN SNOW BANDS...MAIN BAND OVER SOUTHEAST
MA AND THE OTHER BAND OVER EASTERN CT/WESTERN RI INTO THE
WORCESTER HILLS. IN BETWEEN MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS EASTERN RI
INTO PVD AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS NW SNOW BAND
SHOULD PIVOT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLIDES
EASTWARD. THUS WHERE SNOW INTENSITY AS DIMINISHED LATE THIS
MORNING SNOW WILL PICKUP MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" NOW THRU 18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD WHERE OES AND COASTAL FRONT WILL
ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS THRU 00Z. STILL CONFIDENT IN 12-18" HERE. ALSO
SOME OES ENHANCEMENT LIKELY FOR THE CAPE ANN AREA.

SNOW GROWTH NOT IDEAL THUS NOT SEEING LARGE DENDRITE SNOW FLAKES.
THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST MA.

HAVE UPDATED SNOW MAP FOR CT RVR VLY. WILL SEND SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
  SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***

***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
  CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
  CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
  65 MPH GUSTS***

1) OVERVIEW...

IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER.  THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.  THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.

2) TIMING AND PTYPE...

THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.  SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.

3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS.  IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.

THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER.  THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.

OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP.  FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.

WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION.  MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

16Z UPDATE ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 12Z TAFS. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES THRU 18Z OR
SO EXCEPT HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TIL ABOUT 00Z FOR PYM CTY...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. MUCH LESS SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM KBDL-KORH-KLWM. STRONGEST WINDS THRU ABOUT 18Z ACROSS
PYM CNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR 13-14Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 15Z OR 16Z.
THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS.
AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14 OR
15Z THIS MORNING. SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 14 OR 15Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
  ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***

915 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD...AND
NANTUCKET NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES. AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...PROJECTING SEAS APPROACHING 20 FEET MASS BAY AND 20 TO 25
FEET EAST OF THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. PRIOR SURGE
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. ANTICIPATE SURGE TO BE 1.7 TO 2.2 FEET
FROM BOSTON NORTH AND GENERALLY 2.1 TO 2.6 FEET ALONG EAST AND
NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING
SCITUATE...SANDWICH/DENNIS...PROVINCETOWN...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.

AT LEAST SOME EROSION IS EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE MA COASTLINE FROM
SALISBURY TO NANTUCKET...MOST SEVERE ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET INCLUDING SIASCONSET.

AS OF 915 PM...REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING HAVE STARTED TO COME
IN WITH PORTIONS OF OCEANSIDE ROAD AND CENTRAL AVENUE IN SCITUATE
AND THE BRANT ROCK AREA OF MARSHFIELD ALREADY IMPACTED. FLOODING
SHOULD ALREADY BE STARTING TO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF NANTUCKET
HARBOR INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY STREET.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE MA
COASTLINE FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO RESIDUAL SURGE AND
WAVE ACTION. THE WIND WILL HAVE BACKED TO A MORE N DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY LESS BY THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS
A HALF TO A LITTLE LESS THAN A FOOT LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. SEAS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
RUNNING 14 TO 18 FEET A LITTLE OFFSHORE...PERHAPS AROUND 20 FEET
STILL EAST OF NANTUCKET. THUS...AT LEAST SOME EROSION WILL LIKELY
BE WITNESSED AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COASTLINE
FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION IS STILL RELEVANT AND FOLLOWS...

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH.  IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ003-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>017-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 081427
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
927 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...

AT 12Z THE HRRR AND RAP13 VERIFYING BEST REGARDING LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW SHIELD AND EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT MARSHFIELD/PYM/TAN/PVD SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STORM TOTAL QPF
FROM THESE TWO MODELS BRING BACK EDGE OF 0.50 QPF INTO CENTRAL CT
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS SUPPORTING CURRENT
HEADLINES. HOWEVER WE ARE CONCERED REGARDING VERY DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS BLEEDING SOUTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF COASTAL FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MA. DEW PT DOWN TO -6F AT ORE! THIS MAY FURTHER CUT DOWN
THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE CT RVR VALLY INTO HARTFORD. HOWEVER
BEFORE CHANGING ANY HEADLINES WANT TO FULLY REVIEW THE 12Z NAM.

COASTAL FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF COMING THRU GREATER BOSTON AREA
WITH WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO N ALONG WITH TEMP DROP.

WHILE THE SNOW IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS OVER COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. ALREADY
G46 KT AT NANTUCKET WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
  SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***

***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
  CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
  CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
  65 MPH GUSTS***

1) OVERVIEW...

IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER.  THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.  THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.

2) TIMING AND PTYPE...

THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.  SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.

3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS.  IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.

THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER.  THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.

OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP.  FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.

WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION.  MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR 13-14Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 15Z OR 16Z.
THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS.
AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14 OR
15Z THIS MORNING. SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 14 OR 15Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
  ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***

915 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD...AND
NANTUCKET NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES. AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...PROJECTING SEAS APPROACHING 20 FEET MASS BAY AND 20 TO 25
FEET EAST OF THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. PRIOR SURGE
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. ANTICIPATE SURGE TO BE 1.7 TO 2.2 FEET
FROM BOSTON NORTH AND GENERALLY 2.1 TO 2.6 FEET ALONG EAST AND
NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING
SCITUATE...SANDWICH/DENNIS...PROVINCETOWN...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.

AT LEAST SOME EROSION IS EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE MA COASTLINE FROM
SALISBURY TO NANTUCKET...MOST SEVERE ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET INCLUDING SIASCONSET.

AS OF 915 PM...REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING HAVE STARTED TO COME
IN WITH PORTIONS OF OCEANSIDE ROAD AND CENTRAL AVENUE IN SCITUATE
AND THE BRANT ROCK AREA OF MARSHFIELD ALREADY IMPACTED. FLOODING
SHOULD ALREADY BE STARTING TO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF NANTUCKET
HARBOR INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY STREET.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE MA
COASTLINE FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO RESIDUAL SURGE AND
WAVE ACTION. THE WIND WILL HAVE BACKED TO A MORE N DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY LESS BY THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS
A HALF TO A LITTLE LESS THAN A FOOT LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. SEAS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
RUNNING 14 TO 18 FEET A LITTLE OFFSHORE...PERHAPS AROUND 20 FEET
STILL EAST OF NANTUCKET. THUS...AT LEAST SOME EROSION WILL LIKELY
BE WITNESSED AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COASTLINE
FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION IS STILL RELEVANT AND FOLLOWS...

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH.  IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>017-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 081406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
906 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9 AM UPDATE...

AT 12Z THE HRRR AND RAP13 VERIFYING BEST REGARDING LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW SHIELD AND EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT MARSHFIELD/PYM/TAN/PVD SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STORM TOTAL QPF
FROM THESE TWO MODELS BRING BACK EDGE OF 0.50 QPF INTO CENTRAL CT
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS SUPPORTING CURRENT
HEADLINES. HOWEVER WE ARE CONCERED REGARDING VERY DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS BLEEDING SOUTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF COASTAL FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MA. DEW PT DOWN TO -6F AT ORE! THIS MAY FURTHER CUT DOWN
THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE CT RVR VALLY INTO HARTFORD. HOWEVER
BEFORE CHANGING ANY HEADLINES WANT TO FULLY REVIEW THE 12Z NAM.

COASTAL FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF COMING THRU GREATER BOSTON AREA
WITH WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO N ALONG WITH TEMP DROP.

WHILE THE SNOW IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS OVER COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. ALREADY
G46 KT AT NANTUCKET WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
  SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***

***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
  CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
  CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
  65 MPH GUSTS***

1) OVERVIEW...

IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER.  THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.  THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.

2) TIMING AND PTYPE...

THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.  SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.

3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS.  IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.

THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER.  THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.

OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP.  FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.

WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION.  MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR 13-14Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 15Z OR 16Z.
THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS.
AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14 OR
15Z THIS MORNING. SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 14 OR 15Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
  ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH.  IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>017-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 081128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS
AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE UPDATE WAS TIMING THE ONSET OF PCPN. SNOW
HAD MADE IT TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE LEAD BAND MOVES UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING 1-2 HOURS LATER
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASED FASTER
OVERNIGHT AND ALSO WERE BUMPED UPWARD IN THIS UPDATE. NO CHANGES
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
  SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***

***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
  CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
  CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
  65 MPH GUSTS***

1) OVERVIEW...

IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER.  THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.  THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.

2) TIMING AND PTYPE...

THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.  SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.

3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS.  IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.

THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER.  THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.

OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP.  FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.

WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION.  MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR 13-14Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 15Z OR 16Z.
THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS.
AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14 OR
15Z THIS MORNING. SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 14 OR 15Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
  ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH.  IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>017-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 080936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 436 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA...AROUND 980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO
EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES
ARE COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG
ISLAND. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z HRRR GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST
THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS NW CT BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHEAST.
EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...3KM HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT 2-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW CT BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND DUE TO STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...05Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200
MILES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING TO
ITS NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE
COD MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS ALL MEANS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKENING AND LOWER AFTER SUNRISE.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWER TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KPOU DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 080931
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS
AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
  SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***

***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
  CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
  CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
  65 MPH GUSTS***

1) OVERVIEW...

IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER.  THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.  THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.

2) TIMING AND PTYPE...

THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.  SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.

3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS.  IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.

THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER.  THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.

OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP.  FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.

WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION.  MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGH 12Z OR 13Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 14Z
OR 15Z.  THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON.  OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS. AS
FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET. FURTHER
NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12
OR 13Z THIS MORNING.  SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 12 OR 13Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
  ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH.  IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>017-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 080931
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS
AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
  SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***

***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
  CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
  CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
  65 MPH GUSTS***

1) OVERVIEW...

IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER.  THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.  THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.

2) TIMING AND PTYPE...

THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.  SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.

3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS.  IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.

THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER.  THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.

OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP.  FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.

WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION.  MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.  WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGH 12Z OR 13Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 14Z
OR 15Z.  THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON.  OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS. AS
FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET. FURTHER
NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12
OR 13Z THIS MORNING.  SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 12 OR 13Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
  EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
  THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***

POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.  THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
  ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH.  IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>017-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 080833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
333 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO
THIS EVENING. A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE THOROUGHLY
REVIEW THE ENTIRE 00Z SUITE OF MODEL DATA ALONG WITH THE LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.  IMPRESSIVE STORM WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP
EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.  SNOW REACHES THE SOUTH COAST BETWEEN 2 AND
4AM...PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON LINE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...THEN INTO THE
BOSTON/WORCESTER METRO AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM.  PORTIONS OF THE
CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST MAY BEGIN BRIEFLY AS
RAIN...BUT WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO SNOW BY 6 AM OR SO.

THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST DOES THE HEAVY SNOW
SHIELD REACH GIVEN THE POWERFUL STORM TRACKING SO FAR SOUTHEAST OF
THE BENCHMARK. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET WELL NORTH OF THE STORM WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO REACH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT
FROM THIS TRACK.  THERE ALSO WILL LIKELY BE OCEAN ENHANCEMENT FROM
COLD LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING...AS WELL AS THE LAND/SEA
AND COASTAL FRONT WHICH WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH. FINALLY...MAY ALSO BE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE
COIN...CONVECTION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SOMETIMES CAUSES ISSUES
WITH THE MODEL QPF FIELDS AND LIMIT NORTHWEST EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOW.
MID LEVEL CENTERS SO FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MAY ALSO BE A
LIMITATION...SINCE WE MAY HAVE TO RELY ON LOW LEVEL/MESOSCALE FORCES
FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. OVERALL...HEAVIEST SNOW FALL WILL BE ALONG
THE COAST PARTICULARLY FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THERE
MAY BE OTHER BANDED AREAS FOR MESOSCALE REASONS.  A MUCH BROADER
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE INTERIOR.

OVERALL...IF ANYTHING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A TAD HIGH BASED ON
SOME OF THE LATEST DATA BUT WILL HOLD THE FORECAST UNTIL REVIEWING
THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE.

REGARDLESS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** BLIZZARD WARNING PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***
*** STRONG WINDS/HEAVY WET SNOW/POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES SOUTHEAST
 MASSACHUSETTS ***
*** HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ALL OF EASTERN MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT ***
*** SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SOUTH OF BOSTON ***

12Z MODELS...

12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED UPWARD IN
QPF/SNOWFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SAME TREND IN THE 12Z RGEM
GIVES US HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY ROBUST 12Z NAM WHICH IS
PICKING UP ON THE OCEAN EFFECT AND LAND/SEA ENHANCEMENT OVER
PLYMOUTH COUNTY INTO THE UPPER CAPE. THUS THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY BASED ON THE 12Z NAM. FURTHERMORE THE NAM
HIGHEST SKILL IS WITHIN THE FIRST 36 HRS. THUS WE ARE IN THE NAM
WHEELHOUSE.

OVERVIEW ...

IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING PRES FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 7MB IN THE PAST 3 HRS OFF
THE VA COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM THE BAHAMAS AND
ADVANCING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
TRACKS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 18Z MON WHICH
TYPICALLY MEANS TOO FAR OUT TO SEA FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE IS VERY INTENSE WITH SURFACE PRES LOWERING TO
ABOUT 975 MB 18Z MON AND WITH A VERY LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT OVERSPREADS RI AND EASTERN MA. THUS HEAVY SNOW WILL TRACK
MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN WHAT THIS TYPICAL TRACK OFFERS. IN FACT A
MODEL BLEND GIVES STORM TOTAL QPF OF UP TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
EASTERN CT INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS TO NORTHEAST MA/NH BORDER.

ONSET ...

SNOW OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z/3AM AND 11Z/6AM
WITH MAIN SHIELD APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST FROM THE OCEAN.
HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHTER UPSLOPE SNOWS DURING THIS TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WORCESTER HILLS NORTHWARD TO THE
MA/NH BORDER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT
QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 12Z/7AM.

SNOW INTENSITY ...

HEAVIEST SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-2" WILL OCCUR 12Z-20Z.
TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING THIS TIME. IT WILL CONTINUE
SNOWING AFTER 20Z/3PM BUT AT A MUCH LESSER INTENSITY. HEAVY SNOW
MAY LINGER UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY. SNOW
GROWTH LOOKS GOOD ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 09Z-17ZISH. THIS
ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND LOWER VSBY. IN ADDITION A SHARP
COASTAL FRONT WILL SETUP VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR ON THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG AND TO THE EAST WHILE
DIMINISHING SNOWFALL WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE CT RVR
VLY. FURTHERMORE THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN OCEAN
EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES FIRST
ACROSS CAPE ANN AND SLIPPING SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD. OVERALL THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED AND ALSO THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE ESPECIALLY TRAVEL ACROSS RT-3 IN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
ACROSS CAPE COD.

STRONG WINDS/WET SNOW/POWER OUTAGES ...

INITIALLY BLYR LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY WET
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH TREES ALREADY STRESSED ACROSS
THIS REGION FROM FRIDAY/S SNOWSTORM THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
RISK FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. ADDING TO
THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 TO 60 MPH FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. EVEN A LOW RISK OF A FEW LOCATIONS HERE POSSIBLY GUSTING
UP TO 70 MPH!

HAZARDS/HEADLINES ...

GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING WE WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR ALL OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOW RISK OF UP
TO 18" ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND UPPER CAPE COD. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL REDUCE VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES MONDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN MA TO NH BORDER...ALL OF RI AND NORTHEAST EASTERN CT FOR
5-8 INCHES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
CT ...WESTERN-CENTRAL MA FOR 2-5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
DRAW UPON THE LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
HILLS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE COD WHERE
THE EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS STRONGEST. SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS FARTHER AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.  TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...


THRU MIDNIGHT ...

VFR/DRY WITH LGT/VRB WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT ...

CIGS LOWERING QUICKLY INTO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE REGION 08Z-12Z. VSBYS MAINLY VFR/MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW BUT QUICKLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR TOWARD 12Z SOUTH
COAST OF MA.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY ...

HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS RI AND ALL OF EASTERN MA WITH IFR/LIFR
12Z-18Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING TO 21Z-24Z SOUTHEAST MA. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2" WILL BE COMMON 12Z-18Z OVER RI AND EASTERN MA...LESS
INTO CT-WESTERN/CENTRAL MA. VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST WITH STRONGEST OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 KT LIKELY WITH LOW PROB UP 65
KT! SNOWFALL TOTALS THRU 00Z TUE ...

KFMH ... 10-16 INCHES
KBOS ... 6 TO 10 INCHES
KPVD ... 8 TO 12 INCHES
KBDL ... 2 TO 5 INCHES
KORH ... 4 TO 7 INCHES

KBOS TERMINAL ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVY SNOW
THREAT 12Z-18Z WITH VSBY 1/4 OR LESS AT TIMES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOULD REMAIN EAST ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE RI AND
SOUTHERN MA WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN MA WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN SNOW LATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SEAS
WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW PRES WELL OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST COMBINING WITH A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC.

MONDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS OVER ALL COASTAL
WATERS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SNOW.
LOCALLY NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR WIND GUSTS OF LESS THAN 30 KTS.
VERY ROUGH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14-18 FEET OFF THE MA COAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTEHRN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
4 PM UPDATE ...

HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING
AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS
DROP OFF FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS THE LATE MONDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1
PM IS THE TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 2 FT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
WITH 1-1.5 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS WAS
HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WITH LOW RISK OF 70 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. THUS FOLLOWED THE MORE BULLISH ETSS SURGE. IN ADDITION
LARGE WAVES OF 10-20 FT JUST OFFSHORE ON TOP OF THESE HIGH WATER
LEVELS WILL PROMOTE WAVES TO RUNUP THE SHORELINE AND UP AND OVER
SEAWALLS AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL
MODERATE BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS MONDAY 9 AM TO 1 PM
ALONG PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS
IMPACTS BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

COULD HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MON EVENING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

RHODE ISLAND COASTLINE ...

GIVEN THIS OCEAN STORM IS DEVELOPING SO FAR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SE SWELLS AND PUSH OF WATER THAT MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE MON EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>017-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 080609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK...THERE WILL BE
THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EST...IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
AND WELL WRAPPED UP STORM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A
SHIELD OF CLOUDS HEADED NORTHWARD TOWARDS UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOUDY WITH THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. MOST AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY...ALTHOUGH THE 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD START SPREADING INTO NW CT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO MISS OUR AREA...HOWEVER...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GRAZE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL...AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE 3KM HRRR. MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MODEL QPF IS FAIRLY
LIGHT...AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT SOME OF THIS PRECIP
INITIALLY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. STILL...CAN EXPECT A COATING
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NY...AND TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENLAND...THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS
POINT...THIS SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
TRENDS...IF AN ADVISORY COULD POSSIBLY BE NEEED FOR PARTS OF NW CT
OR WESTERN MASS.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. N-NE
WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...05Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200
MILES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING TO
ITS NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE
COD MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS ALL MEANS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKENING AND LOWER AFTER SUNRISE.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWER TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KPOU DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TOMORROW...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF
HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 080326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1025 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO
THIS EVENING. A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

1025 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE THOROUGHLY
REVIEW THE ENTIRE 00Z SUITE OF MODEL DATA ALONG WITH THE LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.  IMPRESSIVE STORM WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP
EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.  SNOW REACHES THE SOUTH COAST BETWEEN 2 AND
4AM...PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON LINE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...THEN INTO THE
BOSTON/WORCESTER METRO AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM.  PORTIONS OF THE
CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST MAY BEGIN BRIEFLY AS
RAIN...BUT WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO SNOW BY 6 AM OR SO.

THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST DOES THE HEAVY SNOW
SHIELD REACH GIVEN THE POWERFUL STORM TRACKING SO FAR SOUTHEAST OF
THE BENCHMARK. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET WELL NORTH OF THE STORM WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO REACH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT
FROM THIS TRACK.  THERE ALSO WILL LIKELY BE OCEAN ENHANCEMENT FROM
COLD LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING...AS WELL AS THE LAND/SEA
AND COASTAL FRONT WHICH WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH. FINALLY...MAY ALSO BE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE
COIN...CONVECTION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SOMETIMES CAUSES ISSUES
WITH THE MODEL QPF FIELDS AND LIMIT NORTHWEST EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOW.
MID LEVEL CENTERS SO FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MAY ALSO BE A
LIMITATION...SINCE WE MAY HAVE TO RELY ON LOW LEVEL/MESOSCALE FORCES
FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. OVERALL...HEAVIEST SNOW FALL WILL BE ALONG
THE COAST PARTICULARLY FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THERE
MAY BE OTHER BANDED AREAS FOR MESOSCALE REASONS.  A MUCH BROADER
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE INTERIOR.

OVERALL...IF ANYTHING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A TAD HIGH BASED ON
SOME OF THE LATEST DATA BUT WILL HOLD THE FORECAST UNTIL REVIEWING
THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE.

REGARDLESS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** BLIZZARD WARNING PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***
*** STRONG WINDS/HEAVY WET SNOW/POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES SOUTHEAST
 MASSACHUSETTS ***
*** HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ALL OF EASTERN MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT ***
*** SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SOUTH OF BOSTON ***

12Z MODELS...

12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED UPWARD IN
QPF/SNOWFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SAME TREND IN THE 12Z RGEM
GIVES US HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY ROBUST 12Z NAM WHICH IS
PICKING UP ON THE OCEAN EFFECT AND LAND/SEA ENHANCEMENT OVER
PLYMOUTH COUNTY INTO THE UPPER CAPE. THUS THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY BASED ON THE 12Z NAM. FURTHERMORE THE NAM
HIGHEST SKILL IS WITHIN THE FIRST 36 HRS. THUS WE ARE IN THE NAM
WHEELHOUSE.

OVERVIEW ...

IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING PRES FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 7MB IN THE PAST 3 HRS OFF
THE VA COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM THE BAHAMAS AND
ADVANCING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
TRACKS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 18Z MON WHICH
TYPICALLY MEANS TOO FAR OUT TO SEA FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE IS VERY INTENSE WITH SURFACE PRES LOWERING TO
ABOUT 975 MB 18Z MON AND WITH A VERY LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT OVERSPREADS RI AND EASTERN MA. THUS HEAVY SNOW WILL TRACK
MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN WHAT THIS TYPICAL TRACK OFFERS. IN FACT A
MODEL BLEND GIVES STORM TOTAL QPF OF UP TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
EASTERN CT INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS TO NORTHEAST MA/NH BORDER.

ONSET ...

SNOW OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z/3AM AND 11Z/6AM
WITH MAIN SHIELD APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST FROM THE OCEAN.
HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHTER UPSLOPE SNOWS DURING THIS TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WORCESTER HILLS NORTHWARD TO THE
MA/NH BORDER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT
QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 12Z/7AM.

SNOW INTENSITY ...

HEAVIEST SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-2" WILL OCCUR 12Z-20Z.
TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING THIS TIME. IT WILL CONTINUE
SNOWING AFTER 20Z/3PM BUT AT A MUCH LESSER INTENSITY. HEAVY SNOW
MAY LINGER UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY. SNOW
GROWTH LOOKS GOOD ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 09Z-17ZISH. THIS
ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND LOWER VSBY. IN ADDITION A SHARP
COASTAL FRONT WILL SETUP VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR ON THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG AND TO THE EAST WHILE
DIMINISHING SNOWFALL WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE CT RVR
VLY. FURTHERMORE THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN OCEAN
EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES FIRST
ACROSS CAPE ANN AND SLIPPING SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD. OVERALL THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED AND ALSO THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE ESPECIALLY TRAVEL ACROSS RT-3 IN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
ACROSS CAPE COD.

STRONG WINDS/WET SNOW/POWER OUTAGES ...

INITIALLY BLYR LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY WET
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH TREES ALREADY STRESSED ACROSS
THIS REGION FROM FRIDAY/S SNOWSTORM THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
RISK FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. ADDING TO
THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 TO 60 MPH FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. EVEN A LOW RISK OF A FEW LOCATIONS HERE POSSIBLY GUSTING
UP TO 70 MPH!

HAZARDS/HEADLINES ...

GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING WE WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR ALL OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOW RISK OF UP
TO 18" ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND UPPER CAPE COD. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL REDUCE VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES MONDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN MA TO NH BORDER...ALL OF RI AND NORTHEAST EASTERN CT FOR
5-8 INCHES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
CT ...WESTERN-CENTRAL MA FOR 2-5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT...

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
DRAW UPON THE LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
HILLS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE COD WHERE
THE EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS STRONGEST. SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS FARTHER AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...WHICH HANGS IN ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTER THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WRAPPED IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY...WILL SEE TWO MORE SHORT WAVES ROTATING NEAR OR S
OF THE REGION AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF NY STATE INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
SURFACE REFLECTIONS CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SO SHOULD SEE ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE FINAL
SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS DURING THU. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING VERY COLD BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE THE GENERAL UPPER PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...DETAILS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC MAINLY FROM LATE TUESDAY
ONWARD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SIGNALING THE ARCTIC
INTRUSION FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS ALONG WITH LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRENDED TO AN ENSEMBLE BLEND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WIND IN PLACE...SNOW DOES NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. NOTING SECOND SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW STARTING TO
APPROACH S COAST LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. STILL SEE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT A VERY STRONG LOW SO WILL SEE GENERALLY
STEADY -SN WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CARRIED LOW LIKELY
POPS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT ALONG S COAST AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPS ON
TUE WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LAST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WORKS INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAK AND DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE. THIS WILL JUST KEEP THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN PLACE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL FINALLY START TAPERING OFF FROM
W-E DURING THU. NOTING HIGH TEMPS LOWER EACH DAY. BY THU...THEY
WILL ONLY BE IN MID 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE
SHORE. NW WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS NW UPPER FLOW TAKES OVER DURING
FRIDAY...EXPECT NEXT ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS. VERY DRY FLOW
ALOFT...SO ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS TO MOVE THROUGH. MAY ALSO
SEE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
NW WINDS WILL KICK IN BY FRI NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT
MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ISOLD TO SCT SHOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER CAPE.

TEMPS NOSEDIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS SE
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. BY SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
TEENS...UP TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WE MAY SEE
OUR FIRST BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPS WELL INLAND NEXT SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...


THRU MIDNIGHT ...

VFR/DRY WITH LGT/VRB WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT ...

CIGS LOWERING QUICKLY INTO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE REGION 08Z-12Z. VSBYS MAINLY VFR/MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW BUT QUICKLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR TOWARD 12Z SOUTH
COAST OF MA.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY ...

HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS RI AND ALL OF EASTERN MA WITH IFR/LIFR
12Z-18Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING TO 21Z-24Z SOUTHEAST MA. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2" WILL BE COMMON 12Z-18Z OVER RI AND EASTERN MA...LESS
INTO CT-WESTERN/CENTRAL MA. VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST WITH STRONGEST OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 KT LIKELY WITH LOW PROB UP 65
KT! SNOWFALL TOTALS THRU 00Z TUE ...

KFMH ... 10-16 INCHES
KBOS ... 6 TO 10 INCHES
KPVD ... 8 TO 12 INCHES
KBDL ... 2 TO 5 INCHES
KORH ... 4 TO 7 INCHES

KBOS TERMINAL ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVY SNOW
THREAT 12Z-18Z WITH VSBY 1/4 OR LESS AT TIMES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOULD REMAIN EAST ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL LIFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT DURING TUESDAY AS SNOW TAPERS BUT DOES NOT COMPLETELY
END. SHOULD SEE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TUE-TUE NIGHT.
N-NE WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST EARLY MON
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING 20-25 KT LATE MON NIGHT-TUESDAY. WINDS
BACK TO LIGHT N-NW TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY
DUE TO TIMING OF LAST WEAK LOW PASSAGE. WILL SEE SCT -SHSN MOST
OF THE TIME...THOUGH MAY BRIEFLY MIX OR CHANGE TO -SHRA ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AROUND MIDDAY WED. MAY ALSO SEE A
BRIEF MIX WED NIGHT AS PRECIP LIGHTENS UP ON THE OUTER CAPE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF -SHSN OVER OUTER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS THU INTO THU NIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE FROM W-NW THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE RI AND
SOUTHERN MA WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN MA WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN SNOW LATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SEAS
WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW PRES WELL OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST COMBINING WITH A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC.

MONDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS OVER ALL COASTAL
WATERS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SNOW.
LOCALLY NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR WIND GUSTS OF LESS THAN 30 KTS.
VERY ROUGH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14-18 FEET OFF THE MA COAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT WILL GUST
UP TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 9-14 FT EARLY
TUE...SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS WINDS BACK TO N WED THEN W-NW WED NIGHT.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...W-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU/THU NIGHT AFTER ARCTIC FRONT
PASSES. SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THU WITH LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS. CHANCE OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
4 PM UPDATE ...

HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING
AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS
DROP OFF FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS THE LATE MONDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1
PM IS THE TIMELINE.

EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 2 FT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
WITH 1-1.5 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS WAS
HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WITH LOW RISK OF 70 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. THUS FOLLOWED THE MORE BULLISH ETSS SURGE. IN ADDITION
LARGE WAVES OF 10-20 FT JUST OFFSHORE ON TOP OF THESE HIGH WATER
LEVELS WILL PROMOTE WAVES TO RUNUP THE SHORELINE AND UP AND OVER
SEAWALLS AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL
MODERATE BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS MONDAY 9 AM TO 1 PM
ALONG PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS
IMPACTS BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

COULD HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MON EVENING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

RHODE ISLAND COASTLINE ...

GIVEN THIS OCEAN STORM IS DEVELOPING SO FAR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SE SWELLS AND PUSH OF WATER THAT MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE MON EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>017-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ018-019-
     021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 080241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR
REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL
FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR COASTAL
NC. SKYCOVER WAS ADJUSTED FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING AND LOWERING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 TRENDS ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE
LIGHT SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COASTAL WAVE...THAT WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. THE POPS WERE REDUCED ACROSS NW CT AND THE SRN BERKS UNTIL
12Z-15Z/MON. EXPECT A COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY
MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT THE CT RIVER VALLEY EAST
OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER
SRN LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A COASTAL SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 12Z/MON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SOME LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPSF BY 12Z IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KPSF-KPOU BTWN 17Z-19Z...WHEN MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KALB-KGFL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME...AND
VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB WITH LIGHT SNOW AT 22Z/MON.

THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 080241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR
REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL
FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR COASTAL
NC. SKYCOVER WAS ADJUSTED FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING AND LOWERING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 TRENDS ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE
LIGHT SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COASTAL WAVE...THAT WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. THE POPS WERE REDUCED ACROSS NW CT AND THE SRN BERKS UNTIL
12Z-15Z/MON. EXPECT A COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY
MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT THE CT RIVER VALLEY EAST
OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER
SRN LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A COASTAL SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 12Z/MON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SOME LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPSF BY 12Z IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KPSF-KPOU BTWN 17Z-19Z...WHEN MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KALB-KGFL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME...AND
VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB WITH LIGHT SNOW AT 22Z/MON.

THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 080241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR
REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL
FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR COASTAL
NC. SKYCOVER WAS ADJUSTED FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING AND LOWERING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 TRENDS ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE
LIGHT SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COASTAL WAVE...THAT WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. THE POPS WERE REDUCED ACROSS NW CT AND THE SRN BERKS UNTIL
12Z-15Z/MON. EXPECT A COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY
MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT THE CT RIVER VALLEY EAST
OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER
SRN LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A COASTAL SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 12Z/MON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SOME LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPSF BY 12Z IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KPSF-KPOU BTWN 17Z-19Z...WHEN MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KALB-KGFL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME...AND
VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB WITH LIGHT SNOW AT 22Z/MON.

THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS




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