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000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A MILDER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A MILDER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A MILDER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 030558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS FOR A 3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 030558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS FOR A 3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY



000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY



000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY



000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY



000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030156
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF MONDAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW BEGINNING
TO ADVECT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND NOW UP TO 72 AT BLOCK ISLAND! THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MAY YIELD PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING
THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN
FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030156
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF MONDAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW BEGINNING
TO ADVECT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND NOW UP TO 72 AT BLOCK ISLAND! THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MAY YIELD PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING
THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN
FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030156
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF MONDAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW BEGINNING
TO ADVECT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND NOW UP TO 72 AT BLOCK ISLAND! THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MAY YIELD PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING
THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN
FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030156
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF MONDAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW BEGINNING
TO ADVECT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND NOW UP TO 72 AT BLOCK ISLAND! THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MAY YIELD PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING
THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN
FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 022353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...QUITE ANICE SUMMER EVENING ACROSS THE LAND
WITH ONLY SOME DISSIPATING CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS
WERE STILL IN THE 50S...BUT WARM WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...70S HIGHLANDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...REALLY NOT MUCH TO TINKER WITH...EXCEPT HAD TO
ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS WHICH WERE GENERALLY NOT WARM ENOUGH.
HOWEVER...LOWS LOOK RIGHT ON TARGET.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER LINEO OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER STORMS HAD DEVELOPED TO THE LEE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS ALL LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 022353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...QUITE ANICE SUMMER EVENING ACROSS THE LAND
WITH ONLY SOME DISSIPATING CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS
WERE STILL IN THE 50S...BUT WARM WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...70S HIGHLANDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...REALLY NOT MUCH TO TINKER WITH...EXCEPT HAD TO
ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS WHICH WERE GENERALLY NOT WARM ENOUGH.
HOWEVER...LOWS LOOK RIGHT ON TARGET.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER LINEO OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER STORMS HAD DEVELOPED TO THE LEE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS ALL LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 022305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO
TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
MAINLY CLEAR EVENING. A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE
WATER RESULTING IN FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON
THE SOUTH COAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO
TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
MAINLY CLEAR EVENING. A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE
WATER RESULTING IN FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON
THE SOUTH COAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 022000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO
TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS.

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN FOG...LOW
CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 022000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO
TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS.

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN FOG...LOW
CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 021943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE BETWEEN 20-30F SO ANY
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
GROUND /VIRGA/. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
THE CU FIELD WITH A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 021943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE BETWEEN 20-30F SO ANY
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
GROUND /VIRGA/. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
THE CU FIELD WITH A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE BETWEEN 20-30F SO ANY
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
GROUND /VIRGA/. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
THE CU FIELD WITH A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE BETWEEN 20-30F SO ANY
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
GROUND /VIRGA/. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
THE CU FIELD WITH A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 021733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...NWS ALY STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 021733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...NWS ALY STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 021733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...NWS ALY STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 021733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...NWS ALY STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
120 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
120 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
120 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
120 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...
AND SKY COVER. BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...
AND SKY COVER. BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 021359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 021359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 021359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 021046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR...WARM...AND PLEASANT SUMMERS DAY IS ON TAP TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE
HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A FAIR AND WARM SUMMERS DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH THE
RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS
AND BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 021046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR...WARM...AND PLEASANT SUMMERS DAY IS ON TAP TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE
HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A FAIR AND WARM SUMMERS DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH THE
RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS
AND BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND WEAK FRONT THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. THIS DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS ERODED ANY
SHALLOW FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED. CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL MAKE SUNDAY
THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO LOW
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF THE
OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE
40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR 40-50 KTS WITH DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES
ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCH.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSISTENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND WEAK FRONT THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. THIS DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS ERODED ANY
SHALLOW FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED. CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL MAKE SUNDAY
THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO LOW
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF THE
OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE
40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR 40-50 KTS WITH DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES
ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCH.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSISTENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 020908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTEN AND
BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING
INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND PLACING THE LOCAL
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 020908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTEN AND
BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING
INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND PLACING THE LOCAL
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 020908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTEN AND
BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING
INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND PLACING THE LOCAL
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 020908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTEN AND
BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING
INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND PLACING THE LOCAL
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020807
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

345 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AT 3 AM
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW PTS FALLING INTO
THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND WILL ADVECT ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER SUNRISE.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY NICE
SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO LOW
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF THE
OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE
40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR 40-50 KTS WITH DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES
ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCH.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSISTENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020807
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

345 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AT 3 AM
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW PTS FALLING INTO
THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND WILL ADVECT ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER SUNRISE.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY NICE
SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO LOW
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF THE
OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE
40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR 40-50 KTS WITH DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES
ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCH.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSISTENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020608
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED
TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID
WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW DOWN TO THE SOUTH COAST
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW PTS FALLING
INTO THE 50S. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020608
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED
TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID
WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW DOWN TO THE SOUTH COAST
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW PTS FALLING
INTO THE 50S. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020608
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED
TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID
WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW DOWN TO THE SOUTH COAST
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW PTS FALLING
INTO THE 50S. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020608
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED
TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID
WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW DOWN TO THE SOUTH COAST
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW PTS FALLING
INTO THE 50S. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 020539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS AREA AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. SEASONABLE LOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 50S. WINDS WILL CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE WEEKEND
AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH
INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR
VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR
PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE
HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH
RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 020539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS AREA AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. SEASONABLE LOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 50S. WINDS WILL CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE WEEKEND
AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH
INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR
VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR
PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE
HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH
RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 020539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS AREA AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. SEASONABLE LOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 50S. WINDS WILL CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE WEEKEND
AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH
INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR
VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR
PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE
HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH
RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 020227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 1015 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS AS IF
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

SO...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH A
LIGHT OR NO WIND...AND DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES
IN MANY CASES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES.
SOME OF THE COOLEST SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.


OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 020227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 1015 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS AS IF
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

SO...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH A
LIGHT OR NO WIND...AND DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES
IN MANY CASES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES.
SOME OF THE COOLEST SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.


OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 020227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 1015 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS AS IF
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

SO...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH A
LIGHT OR NO WIND...AND DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES
IN MANY CASES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES.
SOME OF THE COOLEST SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.


OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 020227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 1015 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS AS IF
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

SO...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH A
LIGHT OR NO WIND...AND DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES
IN MANY CASES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES.
SOME OF THE COOLEST SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.


OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020141
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
941 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS TO ZERO AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NY STATE AS SEEN ON LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND USHER
IN DRIER/LESS HUMID WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S THRU THE
NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN IDEAL WEATHER TOMORROW/SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S. ENJOY! EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO THE N...WHILE GUSTY SW WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE
DISSIPATING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF
THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT WEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY
FAR W NEW ENG.

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020141
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
941 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS TO ZERO AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NY STATE AS SEEN ON LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND USHER
IN DRIER/LESS HUMID WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S THRU THE
NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN IDEAL WEATHER TOMORROW/SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S. ENJOY! EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO THE N...WHILE GUSTY SW WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE
DISSIPATING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF
THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT WEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY
FAR W NEW ENG.

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020141
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
941 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS TO ZERO AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NY STATE AS SEEN ON LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND USHER
IN DRIER/LESS HUMID WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S THRU THE
NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN IDEAL WEATHER TOMORROW/SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S. ENJOY! EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO THE N...WHILE GUSTY SW WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE
DISSIPATING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF
THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT WEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY
FAR W NEW ENG.

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020141
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
941 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS TO ZERO AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NY STATE AS SEEN ON LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND USHER
IN DRIER/LESS HUMID WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S THRU THE
NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN IDEAL WEATHER TOMORROW/SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S. ENJOY! EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO THE N...WHILE GUSTY SW WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE
DISSIPATING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF
THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT WEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY
FAR W NEW ENG.

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 020000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...REALLY NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW SHOWERS JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWEST OF ULSTER COUNTY SO WE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THOSE AREAS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT IS A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
SURPRESSED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. A GUSTY WEST BREEZE WILL
ABATE AFTER SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES...STILL AROUND 80 IN THE
VALLEYS....70S HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN DUE TO A LIGHTER WIND...MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
THE LOW DEWPOINTS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE YET ANOTHER
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN EXITING THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.


OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...REALLY NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW SHOWERS JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWEST OF ULSTER COUNTY SO WE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THOSE AREAS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT IS A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
SURPRESSED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. A GUSTY WEST BREEZE WILL
ABATE AFTER SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES...STILL AROUND 80 IN THE
VALLEYS....70S HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN DUE TO A LIGHTER WIND...MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
THE LOW DEWPOINTS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE YET ANOTHER
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN EXITING THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.


OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO THE N...WHILE GUSTY SW WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND
ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE DISSIPATING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S
OF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT WEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY
FAR W NEW ENG.

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 012300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO THE N...WHILE GUSTY SW WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND
ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE DISSIPATING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S
OF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT WEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY
FAR W NEW ENG.

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 012011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE ARE MOVING TOWARD
AN AREA OF LESS INSTABILITY SO THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AS DIURNAL
HEATING DIMINISHES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE PLEASANT WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST MASS TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST
WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW ALOFT AND
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED A
BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW.  TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING
T-STORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY
FAR W NEW ENG.

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.  HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT
FOR THESE SEAS.  THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 011946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330PM EDT...SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING THROUGH LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES.
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS QUITE LIMITED AS ECHO
TOPS WERE RATHER LOW AND SBCAPES WERE AROUND 1K J/KG OR LESS.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS FEATURE WHILE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7
C/KM/...THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. WE WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE
LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MINIMAL
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AND BRIEF
HEIGHT RISES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS DEWPOINTS
WERE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
50S...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE
WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE
THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK.  SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 011946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330PM EDT...SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING THROUGH LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES.
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS QUITE LIMITED AS ECHO
TOPS WERE RATHER LOW AND SBCAPES WERE AROUND 1K J/KG OR LESS.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS FEATURE WHILE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7
C/KM/...THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. WE WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE
LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MINIMAL
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AND BRIEF
HEIGHT RISES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS DEWPOINTS
WERE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
50S...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE
WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE
THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK.  SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 011946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330PM EDT...SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING THROUGH LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES.
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS QUITE LIMITED AS ECHO
TOPS WERE RATHER LOW AND SBCAPES WERE AROUND 1K J/KG OR LESS.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS FEATURE WHILE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7
C/KM/...THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. WE WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE
LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MINIMAL
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AND BRIEF
HEIGHT RISES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS DEWPOINTS
WERE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
50S...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE
WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE
THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK.  SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 011946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330PM EDT...SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING THROUGH LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES.
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS QUITE LIMITED AS ECHO
TOPS WERE RATHER LOW AND SBCAPES WERE AROUND 1K J/KG OR LESS.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS FEATURE WHILE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7
C/KM/...THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. WE WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE
LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MINIMAL
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AND BRIEF
HEIGHT RISES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS DEWPOINTS
WERE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
50S...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE
WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE
THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK.  SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 011736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120PM EDT...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS POOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S. PER LAPS
DATA...SBCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1K J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE DACKS >6 C/KM AND
NEIGHBORING RADAR CROSS SECTIONS REVEALS ECHO TOPS WERE AROUND 30K
FEET. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WE WILL PLACE
SCATTERED POPS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. H2O VAPOR LOOP
REVEALED A FAST APPROACHING SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE EAST OF DETROIT
AND PER EXTRAPOLATION...WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS EASTERN NY BY 7-8PM.
SO IT WOULD APPEAR LOTS OF METEOROLOGICAL DISCONNECTS AS THIS
FEATURE WOULD ARRIVE AFTER PEAK HEATING AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
THE EAST. SO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WHICH TOO
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE
SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON  NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW  OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 011736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120PM EDT...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS POOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S. PER LAPS
DATA...SBCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1K J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE DACKS >6 C/KM AND
NEIGHBORING RADAR CROSS SECTIONS REVEALS ECHO TOPS WERE AROUND 30K
FEET. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WE WILL PLACE
SCATTERED POPS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. H2O VAPOR LOOP
REVEALED A FAST APPROACHING SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE EAST OF DETROIT
AND PER EXTRAPOLATION...WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS EASTERN NY BY 7-8PM.
SO IT WOULD APPEAR LOTS OF METEOROLOGICAL DISCONNECTS AS THIS
FEATURE WOULD ARRIVE AFTER PEAK HEATING AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
THE EAST. SO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WHICH TOO
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE
SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON  NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW  OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011702
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE PER SPC/S MESOANALYSIS PAGE.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL. GIVEN THAT...EXPECT
THESE TO REMAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREATS FROM THESE
SHOWERS.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS THE POTENT NORTHWEST LOW
AND HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST
GEFS APPEAR TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF
THE DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID-WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS
FOR SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
MODEL RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A DUAL JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN
FAVORABLE LIFT. SO WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY.
BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES
ARE STRONGEST IN THAT REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3
DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C...TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY...POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A
LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE EC OVER THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING
AT THE ENSEMBLES KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6
TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING
T-STORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011702
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE PER SPC/S MESOANALYSIS PAGE.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL. GIVEN THAT...EXPECT
THESE TO REMAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREATS FROM THESE
SHOWERS.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS THE POTENT NORTHWEST LOW
AND HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST
GEFS APPEAR TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF
THE DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID-WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS
FOR SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
MODEL RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A DUAL JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN
FAVORABLE LIFT. SO WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY.
BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES
ARE STRONGEST IN THAT REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3
DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C...TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY...POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A
LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE EC OVER THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING
AT THE ENSEMBLES KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6
TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING
T-STORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011702
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE PER SPC/S MESOANALYSIS PAGE.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL. GIVEN THAT...EXPECT
THESE TO REMAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREATS FROM THESE
SHOWERS.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS THE POTENT NORTHWEST LOW
AND HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST
GEFS APPEAR TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF
THE DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID-WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS
FOR SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
MODEL RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A DUAL JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN
FAVORABLE LIFT. SO WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY.
BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES
ARE STRONGEST IN THAT REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3
DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C...TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY...POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A
LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE EC OVER THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING
AT THE ENSEMBLES KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6
TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING
T-STORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011702
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE PER SPC/S MESOANALYSIS PAGE.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL. GIVEN THAT...EXPECT
THESE TO REMAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREATS FROM THESE
SHOWERS.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS THE POTENT NORTHWEST LOW
AND HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST
GEFS APPEAR TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF
THE DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID-WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS
FOR SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
MODEL RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A DUAL JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN
FAVORABLE LIFT. SO WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY.
BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES
ARE STRONGEST IN THAT REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3
DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C...TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY...POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A
LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE EC OVER THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING
AT THE ENSEMBLES KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6
TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING
T-STORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT IN A FEW SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...THE REGION REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MADE A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS THE POTENT NORTHWEST LOW
AND HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST
GEFS APPEAR TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF
THE DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID-WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS
FOR SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
MODEL RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A DUAL JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN
FAVORABLE LIFT. SO WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY.
BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES
ARE STRONGEST IN THAT REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3
DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C...TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY...POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A
LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE EC OVER THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING
AT THE ENSEMBLES KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6
TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...
EXCEPT ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING T-STORMS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT IN A FEW SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...THE REGION REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MADE A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS THE POTENT NORTHWEST LOW
AND HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST
GEFS APPEAR TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF
THE DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID-WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS
FOR SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
MODEL RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A DUAL JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN
FAVORABLE LIFT. SO WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY.
BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES
ARE STRONGEST IN THAT REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3
DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C...TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY...POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A
LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE EC OVER THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING
AT THE ENSEMBLES KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6
TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...
EXCEPT ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING T-STORMS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 011343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
943 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 943 AM EDT...UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
3KM HRRR...SHOWS THAT SOME MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING LATER TODAY.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8 C/KM RANGE. H500
TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH. THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY
FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS
IS IN THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER
SHEAR IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER
SHEAR IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS...MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS
GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE
POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
943 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 943 AM EDT...UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
3KM HRRR...SHOWS THAT SOME MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING LATER TODAY.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8 C/KM RANGE. H500
TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH. THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY
FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS
IS IN THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER
SHEAR IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER
SHEAR IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS...MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS
GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE
POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
943 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 943 AM EDT...UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
3KM HRRR...SHOWS THAT SOME MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING LATER TODAY.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8 C/KM RANGE. H500
TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH. THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY
FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS
IS IN THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER
SHEAR IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER
SHEAR IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS...MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS
GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE
POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


700 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS ACROSS BERKSHIRES CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE
FROM A FEW TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THIS MORNING...

LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ST
LWRNC RVR VALLEY IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER NORTHERN
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO VT AND NH.   THIS
WILL BE THE THEME EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY.

LARGE TEMP SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U50S. MEANWHILE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE CT RVR VLY HAVE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT UNTIL THE MID WEEK WHERE MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS POTENT NORTHWEST LOW AND
HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST GEFS APPEAR
TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF THE
DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-
WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS FOR
SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFOR HAVE A MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DESCENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPEN MID-LAPSE RATES. A DUEL
JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE LIFT. SO
WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY. BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONGEST IN THAT
REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP
COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOW
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DROPPING TEMPS
AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP
A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A LARGE SPREAD
AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE EC OVER
THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES
KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...
EXCEPT ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING T-STORMS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


700 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS ACROSS BERKSHIRES CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE
FROM A FEW TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THIS MORNING...

LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ST
LWRNC RVR VALLEY IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER NORTHERN
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO VT AND NH.   THIS
WILL BE THE THEME EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY.

LARGE TEMP SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U50S. MEANWHILE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE CT RVR VLY HAVE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT UNTIL THE MID WEEK WHERE MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS POTENT NORTHWEST LOW AND
HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST GEFS APPEAR
TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF THE
DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-
WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS FOR
SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFOR HAVE A MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DESCENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPEN MID-LAPSE RATES. A DUEL
JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE LIFT. SO
WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY. BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONGEST IN THAT
REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP
COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOW
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DROPPING TEMPS
AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP
A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A LARGE SPREAD
AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE EC OVER
THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES
KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...
EXCEPT ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING T-STORMS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


700 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS ACROSS BERKSHIRES CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE
FROM A FEW TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THIS MORNING...

LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ST
LWRNC RVR VALLEY IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER NORTHERN
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO VT AND NH.   THIS
WILL BE THE THEME EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY.

LARGE TEMP SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U50S. MEANWHILE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE CT RVR VLY HAVE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT UNTIL THE MID WEEK WHERE MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS POTENT NORTHWEST LOW AND
HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST GEFS APPEAR
TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF THE
DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-
WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS FOR
SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFOR HAVE A MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DESCENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPEN MID-LAPSE RATES. A DUEL
JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE LIFT. SO
WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY. BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONGEST IN THAT
REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP
COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOW
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DROPPING TEMPS
AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP
A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A LARGE SPREAD
AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE EC OVER
THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES
KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...
EXCEPT ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING T-STORMS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


700 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS ACROSS BERKSHIRES CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE
FROM A FEW TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THIS MORNING...

LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ST
LWRNC RVR VALLEY IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER NORTHERN
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO VT AND NH.   THIS
WILL BE THE THEME EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY.

LARGE TEMP SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U50S. MEANWHILE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE CT RVR VLY HAVE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

THIS AFTERNOON...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY
DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN
IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW
WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE
SHORT IN DURATION.

OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

BEACH FORECAST...

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...

NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT UNTIL THE MID WEEK WHERE MODELS
DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS POTENT NORTHWEST LOW AND
HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST GEFS APPEAR
TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF THE
DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-
WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS FOR
SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT
AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THEREFOR HAVE A MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT RUN OR TWO.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DESCENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPEN MID-LAPSE RATES. A DUEL
JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE LIFT. SO
WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY. BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONGEST IN THAT
REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP
COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER
32C TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE
TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOW
HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DROPPING TEMPS
AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.

ADDITIONALLY POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP
A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A LARGE SPREAD
AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE EC OVER
THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES
KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...
EXCEPT ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING T-STORMS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI
SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



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