Home > Products > State Listing > Massachusetts Data
Latest:
 AFDBOX |  AFDALY |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 010422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 010246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWING IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY THAT
WAY ALL NIGHT. DECENT CONVECTION ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO
NY STATE. THAT SHOULD BE OUR AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ABOUT 6C/KM..,INDICATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT WE WILL
SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT DO
EXPECT SOME TWEAKS WILL BE MADE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST
OVER 1000 J/KG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF
SHEAR...0- 6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE
OVER 100 M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM
POSSIBLE EARLY WED EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE
COLD WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF
OF THE S COAST ON THU AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU
WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO
EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT
THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT
ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWING IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY THAT
WAY ALL NIGHT. DECENT CONVECTION ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO
NY STATE. THAT SHOULD BE OUR AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ABOUT 6C/KM..,INDICATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT WE WILL
SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT DO
EXPECT SOME TWEAKS WILL BE MADE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST
OVER 1000 J/KG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF
SHEAR...0- 6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE
OVER 100 M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM
POSSIBLE EARLY WED EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE
COLD WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF
OF THE S COAST ON THU AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU
WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO
EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT
THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT
ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWING IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY THAT
WAY ALL NIGHT. DECENT CONVECTION ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO
NY STATE. THAT SHOULD BE OUR AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ABOUT 6C/KM..,INDICATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT WE WILL
SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT DO
EXPECT SOME TWEAKS WILL BE MADE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST
OVER 1000 J/KG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF
SHEAR...0- 6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE
OVER 100 M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM
POSSIBLE EARLY WED EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE
COLD WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF
OF THE S COAST ON THU AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU
WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO
EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT
THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT
ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWING IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY THAT
WAY ALL NIGHT. DECENT CONVECTION ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO
NY STATE. THAT SHOULD BE OUR AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ABOUT 6C/KM..,INDICATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT WE WILL
SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT DO
EXPECT SOME TWEAKS WILL BE MADE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST
OVER 1000 J/KG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF
SHEAR...0- 6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE
OVER 100 M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM
POSSIBLE EARLY WED EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE
COLD WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF
OF THE S COAST ON THU AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU
WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO
EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT
THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT
ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 301717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 301717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 301355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRENDS IN SAELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ALL THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW MORE DETAILS ARE BELOW IN THE PREVIOUS AFD....

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGH.
THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE- 00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRENDS IN SAELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ALL THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW MORE DETAILS ARE BELOW IN THE PREVIOUS AFD....

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGH.
THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE- 00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 300810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LAKE ERIE IS LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LAKE ERIE IS LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LAKE ERIE IS LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU... A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU... A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
334 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
GT LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI BUT 12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.
HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A COOL RAIN.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A
SURGE OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FOCUS MORE IN CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO
IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT
MID LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
334 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
GT LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI BUT 12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.
HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A COOL RAIN.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A
SURGE OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FOCUS MORE IN CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO
IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT
MID LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. STILL
HAVE SCATTERED AREAS OF HIGH STRATOCUMULUS/LOW ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...WITH SOME CIRRUS FOR GOOD MEASURE. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
BUT DID TWEAK TEMEPRATURES FROM NOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO
REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISUCSSION...

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
GT LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT 12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY
HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM
THE SW. ALL MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SNE DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE. IF INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT
NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT
SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS LIMITED
WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL BECOME
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A
SURGE OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FOCUS MORE IN CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO
IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT
MID LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

02Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LEFTOVER SWELL OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTA WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES CONTINUE
ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. STILL
HAVE SCATTERED AREAS OF HIGH STRATOCUMULUS/LOW ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...WITH SOME CIRRUS FOR GOOD MEASURE. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
BUT DID TWEAK TEMEPRATURES FROM NOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO
REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISUCSSION...

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
GT LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT 12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY
HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM
THE SW. ALL MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SNE DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE. IF INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT
NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT
SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS LIMITED
WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL BECOME
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A
SURGE OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FOCUS MORE IN CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO
IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT
MID LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

02Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LEFTOVER SWELL OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTA WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES CONTINUE
ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH W AND CENTRAL MA WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8-9 PM. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CU ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN THE
3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH W AND CENTRAL MA WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8-9 PM. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CU ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN THE
3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH W AND CENTRAL MA WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8-9 PM. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CU ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN THE
3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292014
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL EXIT THE REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN
THE 3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  WHILE IT MAY NOT
BECOME COMPLETELY CLEAR...SHOULD SEE SKIES AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR
EARLY THIS EVENING.  VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/KJC
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...FRANK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292014
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL EXIT THE REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN
THE 3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  WHILE IT MAY NOT
BECOME COMPLETELY CLEAR...SHOULD SEE SKIES AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR
EARLY THIS EVENING.  VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/KJC
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...FRANK/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 291740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 291712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH KPSF AND JUST
PAST KGFL. AREAS OF IFR CIGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 13Z-15Z/MON AT KGFL AND
KPSF...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KALB AND KPOU.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER 06Z/TUE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH KPSF AND JUST
PAST KGFL. AREAS OF IFR CIGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 13Z-15Z/MON AT KGFL AND
KPSF...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KALB AND KPOU.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER 06Z/TUE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH KPSF AND JUST
PAST KGFL. AREAS OF IFR CIGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 13Z-15Z/MON AT KGFL AND
KPSF...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KALB AND KPOU.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER 06Z/TUE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH KPSF AND JUST
PAST KGFL. AREAS OF IFR CIGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 13Z-15Z/MON AT KGFL AND
KPSF...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KALB AND KPOU.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER 06Z/TUE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT LATE MORNING.
THIS A RESULT OF A LOT OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH AN
INVERSION.  STRONG LATE JUNE SUN ANGLE WAS BEGINNING TO
POKE SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT TO SEE MORE PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...SO BY NO
MEANS A SUNNY DAY.  ENOUGH PEEKS OF SUN SHOULD OCCUR TO PUSH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...SO MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ACROSS SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
RI AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN FACE BEACHES OF MASS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE
WAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDER DOING THE PERIOD AND SWELL ALONG EASTERN
MASS...SO SWIMMERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD B