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000
FXUS61 KALY 292019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING EAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...THE THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SOME POINT
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE
START OF SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE
50S...WITH AROUND 50 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
WITH DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION
EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 292019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING EAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...THE THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SOME POINT
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE
START OF SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE
50S...WITH AROUND 50 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
WITH DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION
EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING EAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...THE THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SOME POINT
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE
START OF SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE
50S...WITH AROUND 50 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
WITH DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION
EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 291944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE. BY SUNDAY VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

DIURNAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AS BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. HIGH PRES REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR CALM THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH SKIES
CLEARING AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN RADIATIONAL PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER NOT AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

REAL NICE DAY ONCE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA YIELDING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY TO
SEE TODAY/S MOISTURE REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU EXPECTED. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SSW AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE
MU 70S EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN POSSIBLY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THUS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGHER DEW PTS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALLED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY ENSEMBLES
NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A SUBDUED WEATHER-
PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME WITH THE
BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING / HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH
TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER
/THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF THUNDER-
STORMS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. BULK-FORCING
PER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN A MID-LEVEL CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE PROFILE /H85-7/ ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE AXIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE ASCENT...STRONGEST OF WHICH DURING THE
DAY WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES / POSITIVE BUOYANCY.

DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP.
THINKING INITIAL ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR
CLOSER TO BULK-FORCING AND ALONG THE S/W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WHEREVER ASCENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTIVE-
TEMPERATURE IS MET TO BREAK THE CAP OF A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/ AND FREEZING-LEVEL
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 14-15 KFT...EXPECT ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF JET DYNAMICS. WILL ONLY ENTERTAIN THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2-INCHES...THOUGH ISOLATED AS DEEP-
LAYER FORCING IS LACKING. ORDINARY TO MULTICELLUR STORMS CONSIDERED
BASED ON CONVECTIVE INDICES. WARM AND MUGGY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKING DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. CIGS AND VSBYS WEIGHTED
MORE HEAVILY ON NAM AND ITS METMOS THAN GFS AND MAVMOS.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN045-055. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER/RUNWAYS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AND LIGHT SE
ALONG WITH COAST. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF EASTERN MA.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.  S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SE SWELL.
VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG TOWARD MORNING NEAR SHORE.

SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG NEAR SHORE EXPECT GOOD
VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE SO WINDS
BECOME SSW.

SAT NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. A MODEST SSW WIND EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND FEATURING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SCT-BKN SCU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
ONSHORE/SEABREEZE PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. IN
ADDITION FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. HOWEVER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
VERY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNSET.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN CORE OF COOLER AIRMASS IS NOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO LEFTOVER SURF FROM POST TROPICAL CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. CIGS AND VSBYS WEIGHTED MORE
HEAVILY ON NAM AND ITS METMOS THAN GFS AND MAVMOS.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN045-055. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER/RUNWAYS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AND LIGHT SE
ALONG WITH COAST. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF EASTERN MA.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.  S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY. MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND FEATURING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SCT-BKN SCU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
ONSHORE/SEABREEZE PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. IN
ADDITION FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. HOWEVER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
VERY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNSET.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN CORE OF COOLER AIRMASS IS NOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO LEFTOVER SURF FROM POST TROPICAL CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. CIGS AND VSBYS WEIGHTED MORE
HEAVILY ON NAM AND ITS METMOS THAN GFS AND MAVMOS.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN045-055. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER/RUNWAYS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AND LIGHT SE
ALONG WITH COAST. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF EASTERN MA.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.  S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY. MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND FEATURING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SCT-BKN SCU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
ONSHORE/SEABREEZE PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. IN
ADDITION FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. HOWEVER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
VERY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNSET.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN CORE OF COOLER AIRMASS IS NOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO LEFTOVER SURF FROM POST TROPICAL CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. CIGS AND VSBYS WEIGHTED MORE
HEAVILY ON NAM AND ITS METMOS THAN GFS AND MAVMOS.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN045-055. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER/RUNWAYS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AND LIGHT SE
ALONG WITH COAST. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF EASTERN MA.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.  S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY. MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND FEATURING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SCT-BKN SCU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
ONSHORE/SEABREEZE PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. IN
ADDITION FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. HOWEVER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
VERY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNSET.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN CORE OF COOLER AIRMASS IS NOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO LEFTOVER SURF FROM POST TROPICAL CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. CIGS AND VSBYS WEIGHTED MORE
HEAVILY ON NAM AND ITS METMOS THAN GFS AND MAVMOS.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN045-055. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER/RUNWAYS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AND LIGHT SE
ALONG WITH COAST. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF EASTERN MA.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.  S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY. MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 291728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH
SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKYCOVER. A FEW UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
     UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
WITH DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION
EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 291728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH
SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKYCOVER. A FEW UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
     UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
WITH DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION
EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291700
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH
SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKYCOVER. A FEW UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
     UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR
LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z AND PERHAPS AFT 06Z AT KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291436
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1036 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH
SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1036 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
     UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR
LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z AND PERHAPS AFT 06Z AT KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 291436
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1036 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH
SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1036 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
     UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR
LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z AND PERHAPS AFT 06Z AT KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 291347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT
CHATHAM AND UPSTREAM AT ALBANY NY REVEAL STRONG MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...COURTSEY OF 1023 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN THE CANADIAN ORIGINS OF THIS AIRMASS IT WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER
PLENTY OF LATE AUG SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT
CHATHAM AND UPSTREAM AT ALBANY NY REVEAL STRONG MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...COURTSEY OF 1023 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN THE CANADIAN ORIGINS OF THIS AIRMASS IT WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER
PLENTY OF LATE AUG SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT
CHATHAM AND UPSTREAM AT ALBANY NY REVEAL STRONG MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...COURTSEY OF 1023 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN THE CANADIAN ORIGINS OF THIS AIRMASS IT WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER
PLENTY OF LATE AUG SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT
CHATHAM AND UPSTREAM AT ALBANY NY REVEAL STRONG MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...COURTSEY OF 1023 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN THE CANADIAN ORIGINS OF THIS AIRMASS IT WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER
PLENTY OF LATE AUG SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES DAWNED CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW NORMALLY PRONE
SPOTS HAD SOME BRIEF PRE DAWN FOG AS WELL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...BUT DID UPDATE GRIDS TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES DAWNED CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW NORMALLY PRONE
SPOTS HAD SOME BRIEF PRE DAWN FOG AS WELL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...BUT DID UPDATE GRIDS TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES DAWNED CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW NORMALLY PRONE
SPOTS HAD SOME BRIEF PRE DAWN FOG AS WELL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...BUT DID UPDATE GRIDS TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES DAWNED CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW NORMALLY PRONE
SPOTS HAD SOME BRIEF PRE DAWN FOG AS WELL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...BUT DID UPDATE GRIDS TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 291034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AFTER THE MORNING MIST/FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS DISSIPATES. A FEW- SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
     UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR
LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z AND PERHAPS AFT 06Z AT KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KBOX 290904
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
504 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 290803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
...UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
...UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
...UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
...UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 290659
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290659
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290659
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290659
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290658
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290658
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290658
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290658
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290624
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
224 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290624
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
224 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER WRN NY
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/RUC40.
THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND THE TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET WITH
THE CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH
SOME 40-45F READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...VTK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 290519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER WRN NY
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/RUC40.
THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND THE TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET WITH
THE CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH
SOME 40-45F READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...VTK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER WRN NY
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/RUC40.
THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND THE TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET WITH
THE CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH
SOME 40-45F READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...VTK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER WRN NY
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/RUC40.
THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND THE TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET WITH
THE CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH
SOME 40-45F READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...VTK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 290211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...LATEST SAT PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS A TAD TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST SFC OBS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ONCE WE CLEAR OUT AND
COLDER AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...LATEST SAT PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS A TAD TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST SFC OBS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ONCE WE CLEAR OUT AND
COLDER AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...LATEST SAT PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS A TAD TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST SFC OBS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ONCE WE CLEAR OUT AND
COLDER AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...LATEST SAT PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS A TAD TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST SFC OBS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ONCE WE CLEAR OUT AND
COLDER AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 290147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

A FEW CLOUD PATCHES OVER THE ISLANDS/GREATER HARTFORD-
SPRINGFIELD/NORTHERN VT-NH ALL DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ALL AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WEST AND 10G15
KNOTS EAST...ALSO TRENDING LIGHTER. WITH DEW POINTS 45-50F THERE
IS ROOM FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 2F LOWER THAN HOURLY FORECASTS...SO
WE BUMPED THESE VALUES AND THE MIN TEMPS DOWN 2F.

SEAS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERAL ROUGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNTIL MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

A FEW CLOUD PATCHES OVER THE ISLANDS/GREATER HARTFORD-
SPRINGFIELD/NORTHERN VT-NH ALL DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ALL AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WEST AND 10G15
KNOTS EAST...ALSO TRENDING LIGHTER. WITH DEW POINTS 45-50F THERE
IS ROOM FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 2F LOWER THAN HOURLY FORECASTS...SO
WE BUMPED THESE VALUES AND THE MIN TEMPS DOWN 2F.

SEAS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERAL ROUGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNTIL MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

A FEW CLOUD PATCHES OVER THE ISLANDS/GREATER HARTFORD-
SPRINGFIELD/NORTHERN VT-NH ALL DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ALL AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WEST AND 10G15
KNOTS EAST...ALSO TRENDING LIGHTER. WITH DEW POINTS 45-50F THERE
IS ROOM FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 2F LOWER THAN HOURLY FORECASTS...SO
WE BUMPED THESE VALUES AND THE MIN TEMPS DOWN 2F.

SEAS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERAL ROUGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNTIL MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

A FEW CLOUD PATCHES OVER THE ISLANDS/GREATER HARTFORD-
SPRINGFIELD/NORTHERN VT-NH ALL DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ALL AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WEST AND 10G15
KNOTS EAST...ALSO TRENDING LIGHTER. WITH DEW POINTS 45-50F THERE
IS ROOM FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 2F LOWER THAN HOURLY FORECASTS...SO
WE BUMPED THESE VALUES AND THE MIN TEMPS DOWN 2F.

SEAS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERAL ROUGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNTIL MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 282348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
748 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA. BIG CONTRAST IN TEMPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS VS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STARTING TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 282320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES AS N/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES
UP TO 20 MPH. SHOULD SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME MIXING SUBSIDES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
STILL A DESCENT GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS IN NH AND NW MASS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES AS N/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES
UP TO 20 MPH. SHOULD SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME MIXING SUBSIDES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
STILL A DESCENT GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS IN NH AND NW MASS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 281957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW HAS USHERED IN A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION MAKING IT FEEL LIKE AN EARLY FALL DAY.
A DECENT COVERAGE OF STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PARTLY SUNNY OR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST
TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE
DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 6-8 KFT
FROM THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE.  FOG LOOKS LESS POSSIBLE
AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH FEW DIURNAL CU
AND SCT PASSING CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW HAS USHERED IN A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION MAKING IT FEEL LIKE AN EARLY FALL DAY.
A DECENT COVERAGE OF STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PARTLY SUNNY OR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST
TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE
DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 6-8 KFT
FROM THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE.  FOG LOOKS LESS POSSIBLE
AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH FEW DIURNAL CU
AND SCT PASSING CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 281951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

INTERESTING CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED FROM MARSHFIELD DOWN TO
MVY...WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FROM BOSTON DOWN TO NEW BEDFORD.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO BEING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. MIXING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...LEAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LINGERING WINDS GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
STILL A DESCENT GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS IN NH AND NW MASS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY REGION.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING. SEA BREEZE WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

INTERESTING CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED FROM MARSHFIELD DOWN TO
MVY...WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FROM BOSTON DOWN TO NEW BEDFORD.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO BEING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. MIXING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...LEAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LINGERING WINDS GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
STILL A DESCENT GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS IN NH AND NW MASS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY REGION.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING. SEA BREEZE WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
HEATING UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WE JUST TOPPED OUT AT 84F
BY 200 PM. TEMPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES MORE SO THEN FORECASTED
THANKS TO EXCELLENT MIXING UP TO 850 MB. THIS HAS ALLOWED GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING 20-25 MPH. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
AT AROUND 850MB HAS ALLOWED FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. FINALLY...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP MAKING IT A VERY
COMFORTABLE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY NEAR 20 KNOTS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SEA BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS IN PATCHY
FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND...THE BUOY HAS REMAINED ABOUT 5 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SEC. APPEARS BOTH THE PERIOD AND SWELL WILL
MAX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 281713
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
113 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
SFC ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 6-8 KFT
FROM THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE.  FOG LOOKS LESS POSSIBLE
AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH FEW DIURNAL CU
AND SCT PASSING CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281713
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
113 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
SFC ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 6-8 KFT
FROM THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE.  FOG LOOKS LESS POSSIBLE
AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH FEW DIURNAL CU
AND SCT PASSING CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
SFC ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 281421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKER THEN PREV FORECASTED.
REGARDLESS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE AIR. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND HAVE INCREASED THEM ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW MIXING UP TO 850 MB. ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
THE 850 MB LEVEL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND...THE BUOY HAS REMAINED ABOUT 5 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SEC. APPEARS BOTH THE PERIOD AND SWELL WILL
MAX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKER THEN PREV FORECASTED.
REGARDLESS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE AIR. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND HAVE INCREASED THEM ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW MIXING UP TO 850 MB. ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
THE 850 MB LEVEL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND...THE BUOY HAS REMAINED ABOUT 5 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SEC. APPEARS BOTH THE PERIOD AND SWELL WILL
MAX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKER THEN PREV FORECASTED.
REGARDLESS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE AIR. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND HAVE INCREASED THEM ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW MIXING UP TO 850 MB. ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
THE 850 MB LEVEL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND...THE BUOY HAS REMAINED ABOUT 5 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SEC. APPEARS BOTH THE PERIOD AND SWELL WILL
MAX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKER THEN PREV FORECASTED.
REGARDLESS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE AIR. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND HAVE INCREASED THEM ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW MIXING UP TO 850 MB. ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
THE 850 MB LEVEL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND...THE BUOY HAS REMAINED ABOUT 5 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SEC. APPEARS BOTH THE PERIOD AND SWELL WILL
MAX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 281344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
944 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 50S...THANKS TO
LESS HUMID AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
944 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 50S...THANKS TO
LESS HUMID AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 281131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AROUND THE BERKSHIRES AND INTO SW NH. SHOULD SEE THESE
CLOUDS PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. N-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
BY MIDDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT.

ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AROUND THE BERKSHIRES AND INTO SW NH. SHOULD SEE THESE
CLOUDS PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. N-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
BY MIDDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT.

ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AROUND THE BERKSHIRES AND INTO SW NH. SHOULD SEE THESE
CLOUDS PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. N-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
BY MIDDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT.

ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AROUND THE BERKSHIRES AND INTO SW NH. SHOULD SEE THESE
CLOUDS PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. N-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
BY MIDDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT.

ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE CLOUD
OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...SRN
GREENS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILL SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE CLOUD
OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...SRN
GREENS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILL SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE CLOUD
OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...SRN
GREENS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILL SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE CLOUD
OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...SRN
GREENS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILL SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 280912
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 2 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AND WERE MOVING OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 280757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL WILL KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY
WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 280701
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
301 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 2 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AND WERE MOVING OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280701
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
301 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 2 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AND WERE MOVING OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280655
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
255 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 2 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AND WERE MOVING OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020-
     022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280630
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
230 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 1 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT. THESE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA. THE WIND
SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD SUNRISE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020-
     022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 280523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.  IT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT...LATEST RAP/RUC40 SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS STILL MOVING ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
5-10 MPH RANGE...EXCEPT SOME DECOUPLING IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
AND THE RIVER VALLEY NEAR ERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT LOOKS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...WASULA/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 280523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.  IT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT...LATEST RAP/RUC40 SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS STILL MOVING ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
5-10 MPH RANGE...EXCEPT SOME DECOUPLING IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
AND THE RIVER VALLEY NEAR ERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT LOOKS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...WASULA/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 280509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 280203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT
WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET. ANY
REMAINING STORMS WILL STILL THREATEN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.5
INCHES.

COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED IN OUR WESTERN AREAS EARLY NIGHT. EXPECT
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNRISE.

AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IFR/LIFR IN FOG AROUND
NANTUCKET WHICH COULD SPREAD NORTH/WEST TOWARD CAPE COD OVERNIGHT.
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH
THIS BACK OFFSHORE.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WINDS REVERTING NW AS
CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL.
CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD SUNRISE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT
WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET. ANY
REMAINING STORMS WILL STILL THREATEN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.5
INCHES.

COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED IN OUR WESTERN AREAS EARLY NIGHT. EXPECT
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNRISE.

AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IFR/LIFR IN FOG AROUND
NANTUCKET WHICH COULD SPREAD NORTH/WEST TOWARD CAPE COD OVERNIGHT.
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH
THIS BACK OFFSHORE.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WINDS REVERTING NW AS
CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL.
CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD SUNRISE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 7PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING THIS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE AND AT MOST BE A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
NYS. AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN...THE SHOWERS
SHOULD START TO FALL APART.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 7PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING THIS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE AND AT MOST BE A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
NYS. AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN...THE SHOWERS
SHOULD START TO FALL APART.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV







000
FXUS61 KBOX 272322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY YIELDING MILD DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS IT PROGRESSES SE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR...MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN /PWATS AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES/ AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSEQUENT AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. FEEL
SUCH THREATS WILL ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER A
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED BY THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PARENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FEEL THE LATEST HRRR / RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION. HAVE MODELED FORECAST TRENDS
ACCORDINGLY. LIKELY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
IMPACT SE MA THAT INCLUDE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH THE WARM SPOTS SE
AND COOLEST AREAS NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TSRA CONCLUDING TOWARDS 2Z EVOLVING INTO A SHRA-LINE PROGRESSING
SE TOWARDS ACK BY MORNING. VFR REARWARD OF THE LINE UNDER NW
WINDS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS ALONG AND AHEAD UNDER
S/SW FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR S-COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL HOLD VFR WITH SHRA
UNTIL 1Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS REVERTING NW AS CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT. NW
WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL. CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD
SUNRISE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY YIELDING MILD DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS IT PROGRESSES SE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR...MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN /PWATS AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES/ AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSEQUENT AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. FEEL
SUCH THREATS WILL ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER A
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED BY THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PARENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FEEL THE LATEST HRRR / RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION. HAVE MODELED FORECAST TRENDS
ACCORDINGLY. LIKELY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
IMPACT SE MA THAT INCLUDE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH THE WARM SPOTS SE
AND COOLEST AREAS NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TSRA CONCLUDING TOWARDS 2Z EVOLVING INTO A SHRA-LINE PROGRESSING
SE TOWARDS ACK BY MORNING. VFR REARWARD OF THE LINE UNDER NW
WINDS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS ALONG AND AHEAD UNDER
S/SW FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR S-COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL HOLD VFR WITH SHRA
UNTIL 1Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS REVERTING NW AS CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT. NW
WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL. CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD
SUNRISE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY YIELDING MILD DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS IT PROGRESSES SE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR...MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN /PWATS AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES/ AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSEQUENT AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. FEEL
SUCH THREATS WILL ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER A
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED BY THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PARENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FEEL THE LATEST HRRR / RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION. HAVE MODELED FORECAST TRENDS
ACCORDINGLY. LIKELY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
IMPACT SE MA THAT INCLUDE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH THE WARM SPOTS SE
AND COOLEST AREAS NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TSRA CONCLUDING TOWARDS 2Z EVOLVING INTO A SHRA-LINE PROGRESSING
SE TOWARDS ACK BY MORNING. VFR REARWARD OF THE LINE UNDER NW
WINDS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS ALONG AND AHEAD UNDER
S/SW FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR S-COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL HOLD VFR WITH SHRA
UNTIL 1Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS REVERTING NW AS CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT. NW
WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL. CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD
SUNRISE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY YIELDING MILD DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS IT PROGRESSES SE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR...MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN /PWATS AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES/ AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSEQUENT AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. FEEL
SUCH THREATS WILL ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER A
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED BY THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PARENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FEEL THE LATEST HRRR / RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION. HAVE MODELED FORECAST TRENDS
ACCORDINGLY. LIKELY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
IMPACT SE MA THAT INCLUDE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH THE WARM SPOTS SE
AND COOLEST AREAS NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TSRA CONCLUDING TOWARDS 2Z EVOLVING INTO A SHRA-LINE PROGRESSING
SE TOWARDS ACK BY MORNING. VFR REARWARD OF THE LINE UNDER NW
WINDS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS ALONG AND AHEAD UNDER
S/SW FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR S-COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL HOLD VFR WITH SHRA
UNTIL 1Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS REVERTING NW AS CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT. NW
WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL. CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD
SUNRISE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



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