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000
FXUS61 KALY 302350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS JUST AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR KBUF. WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING IS OVER...ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS THEY APPROACH EASTERN NY. THIS
TOO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE REFLECTIVITY MODELS. SO
WE WILL INCREASE POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHC OR CHC CATEGORIES.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL NY MAY LIMIT OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N
AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL OF
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VIS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCH FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

WHILE CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF KPOU. AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




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000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 302047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS...AND ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREDOMINATED...WITH MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.

THUS FAR...ALMOST NO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SETTING SUN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AFTER SUNSET. ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 302047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS...AND ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREDOMINATED...WITH MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.

THUS FAR...ALMOST NO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SETTING SUN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AFTER SUNSET. ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 302047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS...AND ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREDOMINATED...WITH MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.

THUS FAR...ALMOST NO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SETTING SUN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AFTER SUNSET. ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 302047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS...AND ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREDOMINATED...WITH MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.

THUS FAR...ALMOST NO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SETTING SUN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AFTER SUNSET. ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 302017
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
200 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS.
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPERATURES
TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ONCE MORE. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302017
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
200 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS.
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPERATURES
TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ONCE MORE. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301859
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS.
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPERATURES
TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ONCE MORE. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND ABNORMALLY COLD AIR
AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301859
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS.
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPERATURES
TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ONCE MORE. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND ABNORMALLY COLD AIR
AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...CU/STRATO-CU ARE FORMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OR
SLIGHTLY SURPASSED. NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DYNAMICS INCREASE
A BIT FURTHER AROUND SUNSET...SO AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE
UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.

FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...CU/STRATO-CU ARE FORMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OR
SLIGHTLY SURPASSED. NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DYNAMICS INCREASE
A BIT FURTHER AROUND SUNSET...SO AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE
UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.

FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...CU/STRATO-CU ARE FORMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OR
SLIGHTLY SURPASSED. NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DYNAMICS INCREASE
A BIT FURTHER AROUND SUNSET...SO AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE
UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.

FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...CU/STRATO-CU ARE FORMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OR
SLIGHTLY SURPASSED. NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DYNAMICS INCREASE
A BIT FURTHER AROUND SUNSET...SO AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE
UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.

FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 301448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS MORNING.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN
YESTERDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS MORNING.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN
YESTERDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS MORNING.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN
YESTERDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS MORNING.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN
YESTERDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER.
A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED MOISTURE...TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
CAP.

THE CAP LOOKS TO WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE NOTED
OVER MI WILL COOL THE MID LEVEL COLUMN. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK
SOME WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN...THE BEST FORCING
GOES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SOME (ALREADY WERE HERE AT OUR
OFFICE). THEREFORE...BASED ON THE LATEST RAOB WE WILL LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONE.


SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOK FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75-80
IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER.
A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED MOISTURE...TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
CAP.

THE CAP LOOKS TO WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE NOTED
OVER MI WILL COOL THE MID LEVEL COLUMN. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK
SOME WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN...THE BEST FORCING
GOES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SOME (ALREADY WERE HERE AT OUR
OFFICE). THEREFORE...BASED ON THE LATEST RAOB WE WILL LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONE.


SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOK FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75-80
IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER.
A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED MOISTURE...TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
CAP.

THE CAP LOOKS TO WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE NOTED
OVER MI WILL COOL THE MID LEVEL COLUMN. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK
SOME WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN...THE BEST FORCING
GOES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SOME (ALREADY WERE HERE AT OUR
OFFICE). THEREFORE...BASED ON THE LATEST RAOB WE WILL LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONE.


SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOK FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75-80
IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER.
A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED MOISTURE...TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
CAP.

THE CAP LOOKS TO WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE NOTED
OVER MI WILL COOL THE MID LEVEL COLUMN. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK
SOME WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN...THE BEST FORCING
GOES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SOME (ALREADY WERE HERE AT OUR
OFFICE). THEREFORE...BASED ON THE LATEST RAOB WE WILL LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONE.


SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOK FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75-80
IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KBOX 301057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES DROPPED WELL INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING
BUT ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO WARM WITH THE SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN COMES
UP. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES DROPPED WELL INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING
BUT ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO WARM WITH THE SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN COMES
UP. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 301045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 301045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KALY 300603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 300603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV






000
FXUS61 KALY 300552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 300552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 300248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS NOW OCCURRING PER THE REGIONAL
METARS AND THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO WITH THIS
UPDATE DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
/PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. SOME
BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND
MOIST GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 300248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS NOW OCCURRING PER THE REGIONAL
METARS AND THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO WITH THIS
UPDATE DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
/PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. SOME
BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND
MOIST GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
909 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

905 PM UPDATE...

STILL A DECK OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
PORTIONS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  REGARDLESS...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE
MILD SPOTS WILL BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN
BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
909 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

905 PM UPDATE...

STILL A DECK OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
PORTIONS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  REGARDLESS...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE
MILD SPOTS WILL BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN
BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KALY 292338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION PER THE REGIONAL METARS AND THE LAST VISIBLE GOES IMAGERY OF
DAYLIGHT.  SO WITH THIS UPDATE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION /PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW.  SOME BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND MOIST
GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 292338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION PER THE REGIONAL METARS AND THE LAST VISIBLE GOES IMAGERY OF
DAYLIGHT.  SO WITH THIS UPDATE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION /PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW.  SOME BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND MOIST
GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KBOX 292335
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
735 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...AND BY MID EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

OVERNIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL COMBINE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN EXCELLENT
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S IN SOME LOCALES NEAR
THE COASTLINE. A FEW SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE FAR INTERIOR MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292335
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
735 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...AND BY MID EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

OVERNIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL COMBINE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN EXCELLENT
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S IN SOME LOCALES NEAR
THE COASTLINE. A FEW SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE FAR INTERIOR MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 291937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE
FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL
BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE
FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL
BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 291714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOONAT 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOONAT 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 291648
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 291648
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KBOX 291516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

11 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE
THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE A
LITTLE OFF. THINKING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NO LATER THAN 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

11 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE
THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE A
LITTLE OFF. THINKING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NO LATER THAN 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 291422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 291422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 291406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 291406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 291059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

7 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

7 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 290822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED NIGHT THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS
POSSIBLY INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE
MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY
LOWERING SAT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KALY 290520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER MAINE AND IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES . ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. UPDATED WINDS USING
A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WHERE CANCELLED EARLIER.

EVEN THOUGH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING
OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW TRIGGERING CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 290520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER MAINE AND IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES . ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. UPDATED WINDS USING
A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WHERE CANCELLED EARLIER.

EVEN THOUGH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING
OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW TRIGGERING CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 290359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST
NH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK.  APPEARS
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST
NH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK.  APPEARS
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM







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