Home > Products > State Listing > Massachusetts Data
Latest:
 AFDBOX |  AFDALY |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 020535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
135 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NEW ENGLAND NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. DWPTS ARE SLOWLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
DECOUPLING. PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT FLOW MAY STILL
LEND TO LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS
THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL HOLD THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC COAST. THESE
FEATURES SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT SHORTER
SCALES...UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ERODES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW COME MORE INTO ACCORD.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MAINE INTO THE MARITIMES...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURN OUR UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST.  WIND FIELDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND TOTALS AROUND 50. MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE MODEST AND
CONCENTRATED BELOW 750 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MIXING PROFILES
REACH 825 MB THURSDAY...900 MB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 850 MB
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HERE ARE THE EQUIVALENT 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMP
FORECASTS... THURS 17C U80-L90/FRI 8-10C M70S-AROUND 80/SAT 11C
AROUND 80-L80S/SUN 16-17C M80-U80/MON 17-18C U80-L90.

TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL
TIMING FOR COLD FROPA IS EITHER NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WE WILL HAVE FAIR WARM WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18C EXPECT MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
LOWERED OVERALL RISK FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS
ARE LIKELY THE ONLY TERMINALS TO SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LATE NIGHT FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE
WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.  PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIMB TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS...BEST CHANCE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS LIGHT WIND AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
135 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NEW ENGLAND NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. DWPTS ARE SLOWLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
DECOUPLING. PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT FLOW MAY STILL
LEND TO LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS
THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL HOLD THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC COAST. THESE
FEATURES SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT SHORTER
SCALES...UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ERODES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW COME MORE INTO ACCORD.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MAINE INTO THE MARITIMES...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURN OUR UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST.  WIND FIELDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND TOTALS AROUND 50. MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE MODEST AND
CONCENTRATED BELOW 750 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MIXING PROFILES
REACH 825 MB THURSDAY...900 MB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 850 MB
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HERE ARE THE EQUIVALENT 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMP
FORECASTS... THURS 17C U80-L90/FRI 8-10C M70S-AROUND 80/SAT 11C
AROUND 80-L80S/SUN 16-17C M80-U80/MON 17-18C U80-L90.

TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL
TIMING FOR COLD FROPA IS EITHER NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WE WILL HAVE FAIR WARM WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18C EXPECT MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
LOWERED OVERALL RISK FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS
ARE LIKELY THE ONLY TERMINALS TO SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LATE NIGHT FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE
WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.  PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIMB TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS...BEST CHANCE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS LIGHT WIND AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
135 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NEW ENGLAND NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. DWPTS ARE SLOWLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
DECOUPLING. PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT FLOW MAY STILL
LEND TO LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS
THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL HOLD THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC COAST. THESE
FEATURES SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT SHORTER
SCALES...UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ERODES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW COME MORE INTO ACCORD.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MAINE INTO THE MARITIMES...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURN OUR UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST.  WIND FIELDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND TOTALS AROUND 50. MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE MODEST AND
CONCENTRATED BELOW 750 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MIXING PROFILES
REACH 825 MB THURSDAY...900 MB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 850 MB
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HERE ARE THE EQUIVALENT 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMP
FORECASTS... THURS 17C U80-L90/FRI 8-10C M70S-AROUND 80/SAT 11C
AROUND 80-L80S/SUN 16-17C M80-U80/MON 17-18C U80-L90.

TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL
TIMING FOR COLD FROPA IS EITHER NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WE WILL HAVE FAIR WARM WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18C EXPECT MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
LOWERED OVERALL RISK FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS
ARE LIKELY THE ONLY TERMINALS TO SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LATE NIGHT FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE
WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.  PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIMB TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS...BEST CHANCE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS LIGHT WIND AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NEW ENGLAND NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. DWPTS ARE SLOWLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
DECOUPLING. PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT FLOW MAY STILL
LEND TO LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS
THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL HOLD THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC COAST. THESE
FEATURES SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT SHORTER
SCALES...UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ERODES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW COME MORE INTO ACCORD.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MAINE INTO THE MARITIMES...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURN OUR UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST.  WIND FIELDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND TOTALS AROUND 50. MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE MODEST AND
CONCENTRATED BELOW 750 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MIXING PROFILES
REACH 825 MB THURSDAY...900 MB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 850 MB
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HERE ARE THE EQUIVALENT 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMP
FORECASTS... THURS 17C U80-L90/FRI 8-10C M70S-AROUND 80/SAT 11C
AROUND 80-L80S/SUN 16-17C M80-U80/MON 17-18C U80-L90.

TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL
TIMING FOR COLD FROPA IS EITHER NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WE WILL HAVE FAIR WARM WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18C EXPECT MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED/LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.  PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIMB TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS...BEST CHANCE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS LIGHT WIND AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NEW ENGLAND NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. DWPTS ARE SLOWLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
DECOUPLING. PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT FLOW MAY STILL
LEND TO LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS
THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL HOLD THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC COAST. THESE
FEATURES SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT SHORTER
SCALES...UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ERODES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW COME MORE INTO ACCORD.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MAINE INTO THE MARITIMES...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURN OUR UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST.  WIND FIELDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND TOTALS AROUND 50. MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE MODEST AND
CONCENTRATED BELOW 750 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MIXING PROFILES
REACH 825 MB THURSDAY...900 MB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 850 MB
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HERE ARE THE EQUIVALENT 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMP
FORECASTS... THURS 17C U80-L90/FRI 8-10C M70S-AROUND 80/SAT 11C
AROUND 80-L80S/SUN 16-17C M80-U80/MON 17-18C U80-L90.

TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL
TIMING FOR COLD FROPA IS EITHER NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WE WILL HAVE FAIR WARM WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18C EXPECT MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED/LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.  PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIMB TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS...BEST CHANCE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS LIGHT WIND AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING SIMILAR LOWS
TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 020201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING SIMILAR LOWS
TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 012314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING
SIMILAR LOWS TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 012304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NEW ENGLAND NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR BOTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND FOR MANY MILES
UPSTREAM...SO THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR US FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE
NIGHT. DEW POINTS THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER 50S DURING THE DAY
HAVE BOUNCED BACK TO THE UPPER 50S AS SUNSET ALLOWED THE AIRMASS
TO DECOUPLE. CONTINUE TO SEE A FOG POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN THE CT
VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC COAST. THESE
FEATURES SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT SHORTER
SCALES...UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ERODES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW COME MORE INTO ACCORD.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MAINE INTO THE MARITIMES...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURN OUR UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST.  WIND FIELDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND TOTALS AROUND 50. MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE MODEST AND
CONCENTRATED BELOW 750 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MIXING PROFILES
REACH 825 MB THURSDAY...900 MB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 850 MB
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HERE ARE THE EQUIVALENT 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMP
FORECASTS... THURS 17C U80-L90/FRI 8-10C M70S-AROUND 80/SAT 11C
AROUND 80-L80S/SUN 16-17C M80-U80/MON 17-18C U80-L90.

TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL
TIMING FOR COLD FROPA IS EITHER NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WE WILL HAVE FAIR WARM WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18C EXPECT MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED/LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.  PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIMB TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS...BEST CHANCE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS LIGHT WIND AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NEW ENGLAND NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR BOTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND FOR MANY MILES
UPSTREAM...SO THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR US FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE
NIGHT. DEW POINTS THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER 50S DURING THE DAY
HAVE BOUNCED BACK TO THE UPPER 50S AS SUNSET ALLOWED THE AIRMASS
TO DECOUPLE. CONTINUE TO SEE A FOG POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN THE CT
VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC COAST. THESE
FEATURES SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT SHORTER
SCALES...UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ERODES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW COME MORE INTO ACCORD.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MAINE INTO THE MARITIMES...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURN OUR UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST.  WIND FIELDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND TOTALS AROUND 50. MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE MODEST AND
CONCENTRATED BELOW 750 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MIXING PROFILES
REACH 825 MB THURSDAY...900 MB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 850 MB
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HERE ARE THE EQUIVALENT 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMP
FORECASTS... THURS 17C U80-L90/FRI 8-10C M70S-AROUND 80/SAT 11C
AROUND 80-L80S/SUN 16-17C M80-U80/MON 17-18C U80-L90.

TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL
TIMING FOR COLD FROPA IS EITHER NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WE WILL HAVE FAIR WARM WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18C EXPECT MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED/LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.  PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIMB TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS...BEST CHANCE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS LIGHT WIND AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 012046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. THE CUMULUS CLOUD HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING SIMILAR LOWS TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 012046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. THE CUMULUS CLOUD HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING SIMILAR LOWS TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011921
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND NEXT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC COAST. THESE
FEATURES SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT SHORTER
SCALES...UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ERODES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW COME MORE INTO ACCORD.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MAINE INTO THE MARITIMES...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURN OUR UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST.  WIND FIELDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND TOTALS AROUND 50. MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE MODEST AND
CONCENTRATED BELOW 750 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MIXING PROFILES
REACH 825 MB THURSDAY...900 MB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 850 MB
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HERE ARE THE EQUIVALENT 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMP
FORECASTS... THURS 17C U80-L90/FRI 8-10C M70S-AROUND 80/SAT 11C
AROUND 80-L80S/SUN 16-17C M80-U80/MON 17-18C U80-L90.

TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL
TIMING FOR COLD FROPA IS EITHER NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WE WILL HAVE FAIR WARM WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18C EXPECT MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKC ALLOW
FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED / LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.  PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIMB TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS...BEST CHANCE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS LIGHT WIND AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011921
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND NEXT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC COAST. THESE
FEATURES SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT SHORTER
SCALES...UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ERODES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW COME MORE INTO ACCORD.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MAINE INTO THE MARITIMES...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURN OUR UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST.  WIND FIELDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND TOTALS AROUND 50. MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE MODEST AND
CONCENTRATED BELOW 750 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MIXING PROFILES
REACH 825 MB THURSDAY...900 MB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 850 MB
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HERE ARE THE EQUIVALENT 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMP
FORECASTS... THURS 17C U80-L90/FRI 8-10C M70S-AROUND 80/SAT 11C
AROUND 80-L80S/SUN 16-17C M80-U80/MON 17-18C U80-L90.

TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL
TIMING FOR COLD FROPA IS EITHER NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WE WILL HAVE FAIR WARM WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18C EXPECT MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...COOLER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKC ALLOW
FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED / LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.  PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIMB TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS...BEST CHANCE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS LIGHT WIND AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011858
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS
THURSDAY BY WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THEN NOT AS
WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A
WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKC ALLOW
FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED / LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011858
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS
THURSDAY BY WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THEN NOT AS
WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A
WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKC ALLOW
FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED / LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011858
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS
THURSDAY BY WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THEN NOT AS
WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A
WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKC ALLOW
FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED / LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011858
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS
THURSDAY BY WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THEN NOT AS
WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A
WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVALENT BENEATH WHICH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER-
NIGHT. STOUT DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE YIELDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE MOISTURE-POOLING. LOOKING AT A LOW-CLOUD / FOG POTENTIAL
AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NET AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S AND A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

CERTAINLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SEVERAL LOCALES SEEING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-90S BENEATH INFLUENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY-AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND A H85 AIRMASS ALOFT OF +18-20C. A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OUT TO THE W PARENT WITH INCREASING LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL THETAE. ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR INTERESTING BENEATH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES MORE TO
THE N. BUT ABSENT ARE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG WARM-DRY CAP AROUND H85 WITH PARENT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. SO
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE SHORES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NOTEWORTHY MID-ATLANTIC LOW PUSHING E AND OFFSHORE TO OUR S AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. LOOK TO BE IN THE SQUEEZE-PLAY OF
THE TWO WITH MORE DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OF LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS / PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN BENEATH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORKING IN TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKC ALLOW
FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SHELTERED / LOW-LYING TERMINALS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BURNING OFF DURING THE MORNING...LIGHT W/SW-
FLOW RETURNS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCT
5 KFT CIGS TO THE W. A RETURN OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALBEIT
LATER FOR WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AT OR BELOW 4-FEET. ONLY ISSUES ARE W/SW-WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE E-OUTER WATERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 011728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN
FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY CONITNUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOW DUE TO A DECENT INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA SEEN ON THE
12Z/ALY SOUNDING. OTHERWISE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN
FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY CONITNUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOW DUE TO A DECENT INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA SEEN ON THE
12Z/ALY SOUNDING. OTHERWISE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN
FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY CONITNUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOW DUE TO A DECENT INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA SEEN ON THE
12Z/ALY SOUNDING. OTHERWISE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE
RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING HAS A DECENT
INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA. THE SUNSHINE...AND SOME MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WERE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TOO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE
RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING HAS A DECENT
INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA. THE SUNSHINE...AND SOME MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WERE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TOO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE
RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING HAS A DECENT
INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA. THE SUNSHINE...AND SOME MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WERE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TOO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE
RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING HAS A DECENT
INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA. THE SUNSHINE...AND SOME MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WERE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TOO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN REGAINS CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THEN NOT AS WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS
NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COLDER WATERS OFFSHORE WILL
SEE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE E. A COMBINATION OF THIS
ALONG WITH A SLIGHLY COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT /H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND
+14-16C/ WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS /PER THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR
AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/. COOLER ALONG THE SHORES WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO BUILD AS HIGH PRES REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LVL TEMPS
/PARTICULARLY AROUND H85/ TO APPROACH +20C. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED AND WITH INCREASING DWPTS...LIGHT FLOW
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN MA/CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY...

NEAR +20C H85 TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS YET THIS WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW 90S...WITH
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SEA BREEZE KEEP S NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS A BIT
COOLER. NOTING A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF MASS FIELDS AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS N...BUT BUFKIT IS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE THE SUPPORTS STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A VERY SLIM CORRIDOR OF CAPE
ALOFT...THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP ANY DAYTIME/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...

VFR. SEA-BREEZES ONSHORE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. E/NE-FLOW.
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...IFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. BURNING OFF INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A LIGHT W/SW-FLOW
PREVAILS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE HAS COME
ASHORE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SUCH THAT THEY
DROP MAINLY BELOW 3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTLINES DURING
THE DAY. THEREFORE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH
WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN REGAINS CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THEN NOT AS WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS
NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COLDER WATERS OFFSHORE WILL
SEE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE E. A COMBINATION OF THIS
ALONG WITH A SLIGHLY COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT /H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND
+14-16C/ WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS /PER THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR
AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/. COOLER ALONG THE SHORES WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO BUILD AS HIGH PRES REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LVL TEMPS
/PARTICULARLY AROUND H85/ TO APPROACH +20C. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED AND WITH INCREASING DWPTS...LIGHT FLOW
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN MA/CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY...

NEAR +20C H85 TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS YET THIS WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW 90S...WITH
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SEA BREEZE KEEP S NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS A BIT
COOLER. NOTING A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF MASS FIELDS AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS N...BUT BUFKIT IS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE THE SUPPORTS STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A VERY SLIM CORRIDOR OF CAPE
ALOFT...THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP ANY DAYTIME/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...

VFR. SEA-BREEZES ONSHORE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. E/NE-FLOW.
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...IFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. BURNING OFF INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A LIGHT W/SW-FLOW
PREVAILS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE HAS COME
ASHORE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SUCH THAT THEY
DROP MAINLY BELOW 3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTLINES DURING
THE DAY. THEREFORE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH
WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011101
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN REGAINS CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THEN NOT AS WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS
NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

BACKDOOR FRONT RESULTING IN N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE E-NE LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THUS NOT AS WARM ALONG THE COAST. LOWER DEW PTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITH VALUES IN THE M50S TO L60S. OVERALL
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURING THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

VERY SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING IN FROM THE
NE EARLY THIS MORNING. SO SUBTLE IN FACT IT/S BARELY VISIBLE IN
THERMAL FIELDS AND REQUIRES THE MASS FIELDS TO FULL APPRECIATE. AS
SUCH...THE LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY/MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL BE THE EXPECTATION WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS
WELL...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CI. THE COOLER
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS MAINLY ERN MA/RI WILL YIELD COOLER HIGHS TODAY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE CT
VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE E COAST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
SHOULD KEEP THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO BUILD AS HIGH PRES REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LVL TEMPS
/PARTICULARLY AROUND H85/ TO APPROACH +20C. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED AND WITH INCREASING DWPTS...LIGHT FLOW
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN MA/CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WED...
NEAR +20C H85 TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS YET THIS WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW 90S...WITH
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SEA BREEZE KEEP S NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS A BIT
COOLER. NOTING A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF MASS FIELDS AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS N...BUT BUFKIT IS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE THE SUPPORTS STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A VERY SLIM CORRIDOR OF CAPE
ALOFT...THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP ANY DAYTIME/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAF ISSUANCE. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

======================================================================

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES ASSISTED BY WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS E
MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME FOG
MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT TERMINALS WITHIN AND W OF THE CT VALLEY.
THIS IS WHERE THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE COMES IN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE TIMING 13-15Z
THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SUCH THAT THEY
DROP MAINLY BELOW 3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011101
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN REGAINS CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THEN NOT AS WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS
NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

BACKDOOR FRONT RESULTING IN N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE E-NE LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THUS NOT AS WARM ALONG THE COAST. LOWER DEW PTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITH VALUES IN THE M50S TO L60S. OVERALL
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURING THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

VERY SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING IN FROM THE
NE EARLY THIS MORNING. SO SUBTLE IN FACT IT/S BARELY VISIBLE IN
THERMAL FIELDS AND REQUIRES THE MASS FIELDS TO FULL APPRECIATE. AS
SUCH...THE LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY/MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL BE THE EXPECTATION WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS
WELL...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CI. THE COOLER
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS MAINLY ERN MA/RI WILL YIELD COOLER HIGHS TODAY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE CT
VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE E COAST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
SHOULD KEEP THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO BUILD AS HIGH PRES REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LVL TEMPS
/PARTICULARLY AROUND H85/ TO APPROACH +20C. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED AND WITH INCREASING DWPTS...LIGHT FLOW
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN MA/CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WED...
NEAR +20C H85 TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS YET THIS WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW 90S...WITH
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SEA BREEZE KEEP S NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS A BIT
COOLER. NOTING A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF MASS FIELDS AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS N...BUT BUFKIT IS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE THE SUPPORTS STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A VERY SLIM CORRIDOR OF CAPE
ALOFT...THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP ANY DAYTIME/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAF ISSUANCE. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

======================================================================

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES ASSISTED BY WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS E
MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME FOG
MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT TERMINALS WITHIN AND W OF THE CT VALLEY.
THIS IS WHERE THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE COMES IN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE TIMING 13-15Z
THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SUCH THAT THEY
DROP MAINLY BELOW 3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 011016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SW VT AND
WESTERN MA. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM...LAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THEN...EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 011016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SW VT AND
WESTERN MA. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM...LAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THEN...EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SW VT AND
WESTERN MA. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM...LAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THEN...EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 011016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SW VT AND
WESTERN MA. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM...LAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THEN...EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
602 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
602 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN REGAINS CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THEN NOT AS WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS
NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING IN FROM THE
NE EARLY THIS MORNING. SO SUBTLE IN FACT IT/S BARELY VISIBLE IN
THERMAL FIELDS AND REQUIRES THE MASS FIELDS TO FULL APPRECIATE. AS
SUCH...THE LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY/MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL BE THE EXPECTATION WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS
WELL...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CI. THE COOLER
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS MAINLY ERN MA/RI WILL YIELD COOLER HIGHS TODAY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE CT
VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE E COAST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
SHOULD KEEP THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO BUILD AS HIGH PRES REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LVL TEMPS
/PARTICULARLY AROUND H85/ TO APPROACH +20C. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED AND WITH INCREASING DWPTS...LIGHT FLOW
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN MA/CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WED...
NEAR +20C H85 TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS YET THIS WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW 90S...WITH
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SEA BREEZE KEEP S NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS A BIT
COOLER. NOTING A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF MASS FIELDS AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS N...BUT BUFKIT IS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE THE SUPPORTS STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A VERY SLIM CORRIDOR OF CAPE
ALOFT...THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP ANY DAYTIME/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES ASSISTED BY WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS E
MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME FOG
MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT TERMINALS WITHIN AND W OF THE CT VALLEY.
THIS IS WHERE THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE COMES IN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE TIMING 13-15Z
THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SUCH THAT THEY
DROP MAINLY BELOW 3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN REGAINS CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THEN NOT AS WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS
NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING IN FROM THE
NE EARLY THIS MORNING. SO SUBTLE IN FACT IT/S BARELY VISIBLE IN
THERMAL FIELDS AND REQUIRES THE MASS FIELDS TO FULL APPRECIATE. AS
SUCH...THE LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY/MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL BE THE EXPECTATION WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS
WELL...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CI. THE COOLER
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS MAINLY ERN MA/RI WILL YIELD COOLER HIGHS TODAY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE CT
VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE E COAST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
SHOULD KEEP THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO BUILD AS HIGH PRES REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LVL TEMPS
/PARTICULARLY AROUND H85/ TO APPROACH +20C. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED AND WITH INCREASING DWPTS...LIGHT FLOW
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN MA/CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WED...
NEAR +20C H85 TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS YET THIS WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW 90S...WITH
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SEA BREEZE KEEP S NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS A BIT
COOLER. NOTING A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF MASS FIELDS AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS N...BUT BUFKIT IS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE THE SUPPORTS STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A VERY SLIM CORRIDOR OF CAPE
ALOFT...THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP ANY DAYTIME/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES ASSISTED BY WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS E
MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME FOG
MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT TERMINALS WITHIN AND W OF THE CT VALLEY.
THIS IS WHERE THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE COMES IN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE TIMING 13-15Z
THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SUCH THAT THEY
DROP MAINLY BELOW 3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN REGAINS CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THEN NOT AS WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS
NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING IN FROM THE
NE EARLY THIS MORNING. SO SUBTLE IN FACT IT/S BARELY VISIBLE IN
THERMAL FIELDS AND REQUIRES THE MASS FIELDS TO FULL APPRECIATE. AS
SUCH...THE LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY/MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL BE THE EXPECTATION WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS
WELL...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CI. THE COOLER
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS MAINLY ERN MA/RI WILL YIELD COOLER HIGHS TODAY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE CT
VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE E COAST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
SHOULD KEEP THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO BUILD AS HIGH PRES REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LVL TEMPS
/PARTICULARLY AROUND H85/ TO APPROACH +20C. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED AND WITH INCREASING DWPTS...LIGHT FLOW
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN MA/CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WED...
NEAR +20C H85 TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS YET THIS WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW 90S...WITH
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SEA BREEZE KEEP S NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS A BIT
COOLER. NOTING A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF MASS FIELDS AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS N...BUT BUFKIT IS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE THE SUPPORTS STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A VERY SLIM CORRIDOR OF CAPE
ALOFT...THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP ANY DAYTIME/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES ASSISTED BY WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS E
MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME FOG
MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT TERMINALS WITHIN AND W OF THE CT VALLEY.
THIS IS WHERE THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE COMES IN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE TIMING 13-15Z
THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SUCH THAT THEY
DROP MAINLY BELOW 3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN REGAINS CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THEN NOT AS WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS
NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING IN FROM THE
NE EARLY THIS MORNING. SO SUBTLE IN FACT IT/S BARELY VISIBLE IN
THERMAL FIELDS AND REQUIRES THE MASS FIELDS TO FULL APPRECIATE. AS
SUCH...THE LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY/MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL BE THE EXPECTATION WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS
WELL...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CI. THE COOLER
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS MAINLY ERN MA/RI WILL YIELD COOLER HIGHS TODAY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE CT
VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE E COAST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
SHOULD KEEP THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO BUILD AS HIGH PRES REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LVL TEMPS
/PARTICULARLY AROUND H85/ TO APPROACH +20C. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED AND WITH INCREASING DWPTS...LIGHT FLOW
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN MA/CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WED...
NEAR +20C H85 TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS YET THIS WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW 90S...WITH
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SEA BREEZE KEEP S NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS A BIT
COOLER. NOTING A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF MASS FIELDS AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS N...BUT BUFKIT IS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE THE SUPPORTS STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A VERY SLIM CORRIDOR OF CAPE
ALOFT...THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP ANY DAYTIME/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED T-STORMS THU...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU NIGHT/FRI INTO SAT MORNING
* DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

WED NIGHT...QUIET/DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT AFTER
DAYTIME TEMPS WED PEAK IN THE U80S AND L90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MINS ONLY FALLING TO 65 TO
70...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF END TO OUR DRY WEATHER AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SNE. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHALLOW LIFT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTED
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER
IF CAPES CAN GROW TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
ONLY A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT +1 STD
DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD
THREAT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
85 TO 90. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT OUT...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND A THREAT OF SCT AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AS
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU QUEBEC. IN FACT COULD
SEE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER SE MA FRI MORNING! ALTHOUGH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WON/T HAVE THE SAME PUNCH/COOL DOWN AS AN
EARLY SUMMER/LATE SPRING EVENT AS SSTS IN GULF OF ME AND EASTERN MA
WATERS ARE RUNNING 65-70! NEVERTHELESS REFRESHING CHANGE FRI INTO
SAT AM AS 1027 HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THUS BREEZY NE WINDS FRI AM WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTN. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL FRI NIGHT WITH MINS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE
50S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AFTER A COOL/COMFORTABLE SAT MORNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK WITH DEW
PTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND ONLY CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD 60
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF SFC WND. THUS EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES ASSISTED BY WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS E
MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME FOG
MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT TERMINALS WITHIN AND W OF THE CT VALLEY.
THIS IS WHERE THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE COMES IN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE TIMING 13-15Z
THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SUCH THAT THEY
DROP MAINLY BELOW 3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHEN 1027 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC YIELDS
A STIFF NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE FRI HOWEVER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP WELL SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACTING
THE EASTERN MA WATERS. DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010532
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
132 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WERE
TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO TRENDS AND ACTUALLY LOWER OVERALL CLOUD
COVER TO NEAR CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES ASSISTED BY WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS E
MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME FOG
MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT TERMINALS WITHIN AND W OF THE CT VALLEY.
THIS IS WHERE THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE COMES IN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE TIMING 13-15Z
THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WERE
TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO TRENDS AND ACTUALLY LOWER OVERALL CLOUD
COVER TO NEAR CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

00Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WERE
TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO TRENDS AND ACTUALLY LOWER OVERALL CLOUD
COVER TO NEAR CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

00Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 312338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OF SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 312338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OF SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 312301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

00Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 312301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

00Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

00Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

00Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 312035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL  FOG ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 312035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL  FOG ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
PREVAIL. PERHAPS SOME RELIEF WITH BREEZY W-WINDS PER FASTER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY THE DEEPENING
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER.

AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...A MID-LEVEL VORTEX WILL
PUSH S INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW
TOWARDS EVENING. DRIER AIR AHEAD SHOULD ERODE ANY REMNANT CLOUDS
WHEREAS REARWARD A COOLER AIRMASS PREVAILS. FEEL H85 TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD AROUND +17-18C TODAY...WILL DELAY THE RELIEF INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING S ALONG
WITH WINDS TURNING W/NW. NO ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
AS THE A WARM-DRY LAYER PREVAILS ALOFT. OF NOTE IS THE PRECURSOR
AIRMASS PER PORTLAND /GYX/ 12Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
PREVAIL. PERHAPS SOME RELIEF WITH BREEZY W-WINDS PER FASTER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY THE DEEPENING
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER.

AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...A MID-LEVEL VORTEX WILL
PUSH S INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW
TOWARDS EVENING. DRIER AIR AHEAD SHOULD ERODE ANY REMNANT CLOUDS
WHEREAS REARWARD A COOLER AIRMASS PREVAILS. FEEL H85 TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD AROUND +17-18C TODAY...WILL DELAY THE RELIEF INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING S ALONG
WITH WINDS TURNING W/NW. NO ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
AS THE A WARM-DRY LAYER PREVAILS ALOFT. OF NOTE IS THE PRECURSOR
AIRMASS PER PORTLAND /GYX/ 12Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHY GROUND FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS.
OTHERWISE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...A VERY WARM DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHY GROUND FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS.
OTHERWISE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...A VERY WARM DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHY GROUND FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS.
OTHERWISE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...A VERY WARM DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 311015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities