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000
FXUS61 KALY 251805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR UPSTREAM DOES REVEAL A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING LAKE ONTARIO.  IN FACT...RECENT
NLDN DETECTED ONE CG WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.  PER HRRR AND CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...WE WILL HOLD BACK POPS/WX FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOURS AND LEAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY
GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.

WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 251754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS CLEAR SKIES. THE
EXCEPTIONS BEING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS FROM WESTERN SCHOHARIE
COUNTY...NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTGOMERY...FULTON...HAMILTON AND
ALL OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS WESTERN AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER EXCEPTION A
PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER BENNINGTON COUNTY VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS ANCHORED TO THE
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE HILLS TO 50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

LATEST UPDATE HAS CLOUDS REMAINING THICKEST OVER NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 50S FOR THE HILLS AND LOW TO
MID 60S FOR THE VALLEYS. DELAYED CHANCES FOR RAIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS MORE TOWARD 6-7 PM BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF HIGH RES MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.

WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 251417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS CLEAR SKIES. THE
EXCEPTIONS BEING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS FROM WESTERN SCHOHARIE
COUNTY...NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTGOMERY...FULTON...HAMILTON AND
ALL OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS WESTERN AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER EXCEPTION A
PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER BENNINGTON COUNTY VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS ANCHORED TO THE
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE HILLS TO 50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

LATEST UPDATE HAS CLOUDS REMAINING THICKEST OVER NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 50S FOR THE HILLS AND LOW TO
MID 60S FOR THE VALLEYS. DELAYED CHANCES FOR RAIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS MORE TOWARD 6-7 PM BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF HIGH RES MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF IFR DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 251355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
DRY...COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.  A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY ***

1000 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A FEW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FROM DIURNAL HEATING
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH INTO THE 60S
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST BLYR MIXING EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS
LEVEL ARE AROUND +10C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL EVEN
MILDER GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WILL
SUPPORT WARM READINGS ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TEMPS MAY FALL BACK A FEW DEGS HERE LATER IN THE DAY AS
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY
ONLY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS FROM 00Z/8PM TO 06Z/2AM ACROSS NORTHERN MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE /06Z/ WNW WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SUNDAY...

ABOUT 10 DEGS OR SO COLDER THAN SAT ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMES THRU THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION 925MB-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7C/KM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
SHOULD YIELD A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH CLOUD COVER TO YIELD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COOL MON
* REMAINING DRY BUT MILDER ON TUE
* UNSEASONABLY MILD WED WITH SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
* PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
* TURNING MUCH COOLER BY NEXT THU AND FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.  WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE AND
IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL BETWEEN 40 AND 45 IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...BUT ENOUGH WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING
OUT.

MONDAY...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN
DECOUPLING WINDS AND A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

TUESDAY...

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE ALLOWING A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.  WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY MILD
DAY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL BASED ON PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND SUPPORT FROM ECMWF/GGEM 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  850
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY TRIGGER A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE
OF A SHORT DURATION IN A GIVEN LOCATION WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU INTO MUCH OF FRI BUT WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S ON BOTH
DAYS.  A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON TO START
THE NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN QUICKLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
00Z-06Z. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN035-045 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THRU SUNDAY.

TODAY...

MODEST NW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN
SW TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TODAY. NE SWELLS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 03Z-06Z WITH WNW WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN
MA WATERS.

SUNDAY...

WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE COOL
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
NEAR 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS.
REGARDLESS...SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS.  MARGINAL SOUTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP BY WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF IFR DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 251146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF IFR DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 251106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
DRY...COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.  A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY ***

705 AM UPDATE...

LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL
BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.  OTHEWISE...JUST A BIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST BLYR MIXING EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL
ARE AROUND +10C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL EVEN
MILDER GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WILL SUPPORT
WARM READINGS ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TEMPS MAY FALL BACK A FEW DEGS HERE LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...

IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY
ONLY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS FROM 00Z/8PM TO 06Z/2AM ACROSS NORTHERN MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE /06Z/ WNW WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SUNDAY...

ABOUT 10 DEGS OR SO COLDER THAN SAT ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMES THRU THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION 925MB-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7C/KM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
SHOULD YIELD A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH CLOUD COVER TO YIELD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COOL MON
* REMAINING DRY BUT MILDER ON TUE
* UNSEASONABLY MILD WED WITH SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
* PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
* TURNING MUCH COOLER BY NEXT THU AND FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.  WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE AND
IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL BETWEEN 40 AND 45 IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...BUT ENOUGH WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING
OUT.

MONDAY...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN
DECOUPLING WINDS AND A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

TUESDAY...

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE ALLOWING A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.  WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY MILD
DAY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL BASED ON PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND SUPPORT FROM ECMWF/GGEM 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  850
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY TRIGGER A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE
OF A SHORT DURATION IN A GIVEN LOCATION WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU INTO MUCH OF FRI BUT WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S ON BOTH
DAYS.  A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON TO START
THE NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN QUICKLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
00Z-06Z. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN035-045 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THRU SUNDAY.

TODAY...

MODEST NW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN
SW TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TODAY. NE SWELLS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 03Z-06Z WITH WNW WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN
MA WATERS.

SUNDAY...

WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE COOL
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
NEAR 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS.
REGARDLESS...SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS.  MARGINAL SOUTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP BY WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...NOCERA/FRANK
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
DRY...COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.  A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY ***

705 AM UPDATE...

LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL
BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.  OTHEWISE...JUST A BIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST BLYR MIXING EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL
ARE AROUND +10C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL EVEN
MILDER GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WILL SUPPORT
WARM READINGS ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TEMPS MAY FALL BACK A FEW DEGS HERE LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...

IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY
ONLY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS FROM 00Z/8PM TO 06Z/2AM ACROSS NORTHERN MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE /06Z/ WNW WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SUNDAY...

ABOUT 10 DEGS OR SO COLDER THAN SAT ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMES THRU THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION 925MB-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7C/KM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
SHOULD YIELD A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH CLOUD COVER TO YIELD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COOL MON
* REMAINING DRY BUT MILDER ON TUE
* UNSEASONABLY MILD WED WITH SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
* PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
* TURNING MUCH COOLER BY NEXT THU AND FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.  WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE AND
IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL BETWEEN 40 AND 45 IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...BUT ENOUGH WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING
OUT.

MONDAY...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN
DECOUPLING WINDS AND A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

TUESDAY...

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE ALLOWING A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.  WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY MILD
DAY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL BASED ON PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND SUPPORT FROM ECMWF/GGEM 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  850
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY TRIGGER A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE
OF A SHORT DURATION IN A GIVEN LOCATION WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU INTO MUCH OF FRI BUT WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S ON BOTH
DAYS.  A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON TO START
THE NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN QUICKLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
00Z-06Z. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN035-045 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THRU SUNDAY.

TODAY...

MODEST NW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN
SW TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TODAY. NE SWELLS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 03Z-06Z WITH WNW WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN
MA WATERS.

SUNDAY...

WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE COOL
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
NEAR 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS.
REGARDLESS...SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS.  MARGINAL SOUTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP BY WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...NOCERA/FRANK
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 251057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 251057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 250901
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH OR SFC WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD VARIABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
RADIATIONAL FOG AND SOME STRATUS. WINDS ARE ALSO VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. ALSO 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME
STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE ADDRESSED CONCERNS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN
TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF
SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE
IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 250854
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
DRY...COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.  A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY ***

TODAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST BLYR MIXING EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL
ARE AROUND +10C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL EVEN
MILDER GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WILL SUPPORT
WARM READINGS ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TEMPS MAY FALL BACK A FEW DEGS HERE LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...

IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY
ONLY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS FROM 00Z/8PM TO 06Z/2AM ACROSS NORTHERN MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE /06Z/ WNW WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SUNDAY...

ABOUT 10 DEGS OR SO COLDER THAN SAT ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMES THRU THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION 925MB-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7C/KM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
SHOULD YIELD A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH CLOUD COVER TO YIELD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COOL MON
* REMAINING DRY BUT MILDER ON TUE
* UNSEASONABLY MILD WED WITH SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
* PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
* TURNING MUCH COOLER BY NEXT THU AND FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.  WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE AND
IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL BETWEEN 40 AND 45 IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...BUT ENOUGH WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING
OUT.

MONDAY...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN
DECOUPLING WINDS AND A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS
TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

TUESDAY...

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE ALLOWING A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.  WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY MILD
DAY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL BASED ON PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND SUPPORT FROM ECMWF/GGEM 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  850
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY TRIGGER A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE
OF A SHORT DURATION IN A GIVEN LOCATION WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU INTO FRI BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.  A SECONDARY FRONT WILL
PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST
WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON TO START THE NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI OR
FRI NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN MA AND RI
AT 06Z/2AM...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
EXIT THE CAPE AROUND 14Z-15Z. THEREAFTER VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST W WIND BECOMING SW TOWARD 21Z-00Z.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN QUICKLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
00Z-06Z. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN035-045 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THRU SUNDAY.

TODAY...

MODEST NW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN
SW TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TODAY. NE SWELLS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 03Z-06Z WITH WNW WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN
MA WATERS.

SUNDAY...

WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE COOL
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
NEAR 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS.
REGARDLESS...SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS.  MARGINAL SOUTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP BY WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...NOCERA/FRANK
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 250837
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH OR SFC WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD VARIABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
RADIATIONAL FOG AND SOME STRATUS. WINDS ARE ALSO VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. ALSO 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME
STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE ADDRESSED CONCERNS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN
TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF
SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE
IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 250825
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY.  DRY AND
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT MAY BRING BRIEF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY ***

TODAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST BLYR MIXING EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL
ARE AROUND +10C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL EVEN
MILDER GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WILL SUPPORT
WARM READINGS ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TEMPS MAY FALL BACK A FEW DEGS HERE LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...

IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY
ONLY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS FROM 00Z/8PM TO 06Z/2AM ACROSS NORTHERN MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE /06Z/ WNW WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SUNDAY...

ABOUT 10 DEGS OR SO COLDER THAN SAT ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMES THRU THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION 925MB-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7C/KM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
SHOULD YIELD A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH CLOUD COVER TO YIELD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COOL MON
* REMAINING DRY BUT MILDER ON TUE
* UNSEASONABLY MILD WED WITH SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
* PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
* TURNING MUCH COOLER THU AND FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.  WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE WED NIGHT AND
IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL BETWEEN 40 AND 45 IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...BUT ENOUGH WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING
OUT.

MONDAY...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS ON MONDAY.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY.  BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECOUPLE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN
THE URBAN CENTERS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE ALLOWING A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.  WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S.

WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR AN
UNSEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOON.  850 MB TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 10C
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER
A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE OF A SHORT
DURATION IN A GIVEN LOCATION WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY THU
INTO FRI BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S.  A SECONDARY FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON TO START THE WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN MA AND RI
AT 06Z/2AM...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
EXIT THE CAPE AROUND 14Z-15Z. THEREAFTER VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST W WIND BECOMING SW TOWARD 21Z-00Z.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN QUICKLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
00Z-06Z. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN035-045 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THRU SUNDAY.

TODAY...

MODEST NW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN
SW TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TODAY. NE SWELLS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 03Z-06Z WITH WNW WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN
MA WATERS.

SUNDAY...

WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF NEAR 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS.
REGARDLESS...SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS.  MARGINAL SOUTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP BY WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...NOCERA/FRANK
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250609
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
209 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY WITH
WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT
THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NOW INTO CENTRAL-EASTERN MA INTO
RI...AND CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HANDLING THIS TIMING WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

------------------------------------------------------------------

BACK EDGE OF CLOUD LINE MOVING ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY AND ADVANCING
STEADILY EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS MID LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM NY AND PA.

SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
40S...UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. A MODEST NW WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY
SO ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO MODIFY HOURLY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN MA AND RI
AT 06Z/2AM...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
EXIT THE CAPE AROUND 14Z-15Z. THEREAFTER VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST W WIND BECOMING SW TOWARD 21Z-00Z.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN QUICKLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
00Z-06Z. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN035-045 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH SEAS A
BIT HIGHER. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...NOCERA/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/NMB




000
FXUS61 KALY 250559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TODAY.  THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDDED/TEXT FORECASTS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RETRENDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SOME SITES HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTED MINS /SRN VT/. LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MID 30 TO L40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
FOG. CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR HAVE GONE CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ADDRESS
CONCERNS OF VISIBILITY BEING VARIABLE DUE TO THE FOG. ALREADY HAVE
IFR AND LOWER AT KGFL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...OTHERWISE MVFR
EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG BURNS OFF/LIFTS
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. SPEED OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THEN THE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 250526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TODAY.  THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM EDT TODAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDDED/TEXT FORECASTS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RETRENDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SOME SITES HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTED MINS /SRN VT/. LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MID 30 TO L40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH).


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 250205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF CLOUD LINE MOVING ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY AND ADVANCING
STEADILY EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS MID LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM NY AND PA.

SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
40S...UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. A MODEST NW WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY
SO ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO MODIFY HOURLY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

----------------------------------------------------------------

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR 00Z-03Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z. GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. AFTER 07Z
VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. CIGS SHOULD RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR
BY 02-03Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH SEAS A
BIT HIGHER. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/NMB




000
FXUS61 KALY 250144
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...ONLY VERY MINOR EDITS TO AN OTHERWISE FINE
FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE AWAY. A NORTHWEST
BREEZE WAS AVERAGING ABOUT ABOUT 5 MPH.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND A CLEARING
SKY. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH).


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV










000
FXUS61 KALY 242351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION
OF CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW LINGERED ACROSS THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH).


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 242340
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION
OF CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW LINGERED ACROSS THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 242311
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
711 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
CLOUDY SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

LATE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE CAPE/ISLANDS THE
LAST TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR 00Z-03Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z. GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. AFTER 07Z
VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. CIGS SHOULD RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR
BY 02-03Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC/NMB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE CAPE/ISLANDS THE
LAST TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE CAPE/ISLANDS THE
LAST TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NMB




000
FXUS61 KALY 241950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS WAS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT POSITIVE TRENDS WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE COASTAL LOW. SO THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST
AND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW SHOULD SLOWLY YIELD SKY IMPROVEMENTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR
COMPLETELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP AT OR
BELOW 40F. PER THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES THIS FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM A FAST MOVING JET ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM REGIONAL U.S./CANADIAN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SUGGEST MINIMAL MOISTURE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 241950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS WAS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT POSITIVE TRENDS WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE COASTAL LOW. SO THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST
AND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW SHOULD SLOWLY YIELD SKY IMPROVEMENTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR
COMPLETELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP AT OR
BELOW 40F. PER THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES THIS FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM A FAST MOVING JET ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM REGIONAL U.S./CANADIAN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SUGGEST MINIMAL MOISTURE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENG...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM CONVEYOR
BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH
CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 241736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KBOX 241423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
WITH CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
WITH CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 241129
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF RAFL MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
EXITING OCCLUSION. THIS LAST WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE
KICKER...FINALLY ALLOWING THIS FEATURE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND
LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A FEW MORE SHOWERS LEFT
IN THE HOPPER AS IT DOES SO THOUGH...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME MUCH FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR
OUT...BUT DO FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY
EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 241045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV











000
FXUS61 KBOX 240808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 240611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND
A DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDE
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM  THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER GEORGES BANK.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. PREVIOUS
FORECAST VERIFYING NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-250-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99




000
FXUS61 KALY 240552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
AND NOT AS HEAVY. FRIDAY...THE STORM CONTINUES ITS SEAWARD TRACK
WITH MORNING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A DRYING TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

10 PM UPDATE...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND MAINE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEFORE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY ABOVE 800 MB. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IS YIELDING SCATTERED LOW
TOP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY
MODIFICATION WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WEAK OVERNIGHT AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY NOT
BE REALIZED GIVEN DRYING ALOFT. OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN
TACT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR ACK TERMINAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==========================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
AND NOT AS HEAVY. FRIDAY...THE STORM CONTINUES ITS SEAWARD TRACK
WITH MORNING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A DRYING TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

10 PM UPDATE...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND MAINE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEFORE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY ABOVE 800 MB. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IS YIELDING SCATTERED LOW
TOP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY
MODIFICATION WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WEAK OVERNIGHT AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY NOT
BE REALIZED GIVEN DRYING ALOFT. OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN
TACT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR ACK TERMINAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==========================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 240010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ON
RADAR...AS WELL AS LIKELY PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATE A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS WORKING INTO THE REGION WHICH WAS
SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL). INDEED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE...OF THE LOW...TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD...LOOKS TO HAVE
RISEN FROM 997 TO 998 MB IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINED QUITE SATURATED SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND EASTWARD SO THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A LITTLE...SO ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERESTING...THE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AGAIN DOWN TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE...AS THERE IS BETTER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN...SINCE IT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER.
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT THEY ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER AND MORE OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION DIFFERENCE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN AND CERTAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RESIDUAL SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY AT THAT TIME).

DECIDED TO RAISE A FEW MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT DUE THE FACT THE IF
ANYTHING...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN PLACED BY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AND IN SOME CASES...THE 8PM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS WERE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 700 PM ONES.  WITH THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS AS IF CIGS WILL OCCASIONAL DIP TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AT KPSF DUE TO AN UPSLOPE WIND AND KALB DUE TO MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS GFL AND KPOU BUT AT THIS POINT...WE
FELT THE THREAT WAS TOO LOW (AND BRIEF) NOT NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...KPOU WAS ACTUALLY MVFR DUE TO THE GUSTY
WINDS.

CONDITIONS MIGHT NOT BOUNCE BACK TO VFR AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES...UNTIL WELL PAST THE MORNING PEAK FRIDAY.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND KPSF.


SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 232316
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
716 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN MA AND RI...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN THE SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUED IN THESE BANDS
OF SHOWERS. IT WAS STILL QUITE GUSTY IN THE EAST WITH WINDS
GUSTING PAST 35 MPH RIGHT AT THE COAST. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THIS
EVENING A BIT OVER CT AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD/GAF
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/GAF
AVIATION...JWD/GAF/HR
MARINE...JWD/GAF/HR
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 232013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT...THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING OUR REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SITUATED JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH THE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE REGION...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING
FOR A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE DOWNSLOPING SIDE OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE...IT IS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME STEADY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS IS SEEN IN BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...AS WELL AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40
MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE STEADY RAINFALL LOOKS TO END THIS EVENING...A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THANKS TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WITH THE ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL WILL
TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

315 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT OUTRUNS
BETTER SUPPORT.

IN ITS WAKE MORE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD ONTO COAST AROUND
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED S OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE. SEEING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SE OF NANTUCKET WITH BUILDING CLOUDS/
CONVECTION FARTHER SE...WHICH SHOULD CLIP SE NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING.

NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AT
A GIVEN LOCATION...SO THREAT OF RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND.

DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/FIELD
AVIATION...JWD/HR/FIELD
MARINE...JWD/HR/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

315 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT OUTRUNS
BETTER SUPPORT.

IN ITS WAKE MORE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD ONTO COAST AROUND
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED S OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE. SEEING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SE OF NANTUCKET WITH BUILDING CLOUDS/
CONVECTION FARTHER SE...WHICH SHOULD CLIP SE NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING.

NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AT
A GIVEN LOCATION...SO THREAT OF RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND.

DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/FIELD
AVIATION...JWD/HR/FIELD
MARINE...JWD/HR/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD




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