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000
FXUS61 KBOX 281448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT PROCESSES
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281445
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT MACHINATIONS
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281445
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT MACHINATIONS
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281445
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT MACHINATIONS
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281445
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT MACHINATIONS
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 281334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EDT...WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT AROUND 1-2 INCHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS INTO
THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...AS BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA
AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BANDING WITH BRIEF
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH TO THE WEST. DUE TO THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE SNOW ON PAVED SURFACES EXCEPT FOR
WHERE PERSISTENT STEADY BANDS OF SNOW OCCUR AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING /IF AT ALL/ IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
20S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 281334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EDT...WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT AROUND 1-2 INCHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS INTO
THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...AS BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA
AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BANDING WITH BRIEF
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH TO THE WEST. DUE TO THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE SNOW ON PAVED SURFACES EXCEPT FOR
WHERE PERSISTENT STEADY BANDS OF SNOW OCCUR AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING /IF AT ALL/ IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
20S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 281334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EDT...WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT AROUND 1-2 INCHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS INTO
THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...AS BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA
AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BANDING WITH BRIEF
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH TO THE WEST. DUE TO THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE SNOW ON PAVED SURFACES EXCEPT FOR
WHERE PERSISTENT STEADY BANDS OF SNOW OCCUR AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING /IF AT ALL/ IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
20S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 281334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EDT...WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT AROUND 1-2 INCHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS INTO
THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...AS BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA
AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BANDING WITH BRIEF
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH TO THE WEST. DUE TO THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE SNOW ON PAVED SURFACES EXCEPT FOR
WHERE PERSISTENT STEADY BANDS OF SNOW OCCUR AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING /IF AT ALL/ IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
20S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. PRECIP THAT WAS
ACROSS THE CAPE HAS SPREAD NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALSO
THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS VT HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST MASS. THUS FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLURRIES
WITH THE NORTHWEST ECHOES AND RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN
ECHOES. BELIEVE ACCUMS WILL BE TOUGH THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S HOWEVER IF ANY HEAVY BAND DOES DEVELOP THEN VSBYS WILL
DROP AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.


TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PROB OF SNOW
ACCUM ON RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. PRECIP THAT WAS
ACROSS THE CAPE HAS SPREAD NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALSO
THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS VT HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST MASS. THUS FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLURRIES
WITH THE NORTHWEST ECHOES AND RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN
ECHOES. BELIEVE ACCUMS WILL BE TOUGH THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S HOWEVER IF ANY HEAVY BAND DOES DEVELOP THEN VSBYS WILL
DROP AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.


TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PROB OF SNOW
ACCUM ON RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
     KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
     KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
     KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
     KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
     KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
     KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
     KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
     KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
...KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
...KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
...KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT
THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN
STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME
SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD
FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS
LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE.

WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN
THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY
SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORIES  AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.

THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80
POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC)
...KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE
MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS
ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST
BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 280938
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
538 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A
LITTLE SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...WE ARE STILL WITH A PESKY AREA OF SNOW...THE
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SARATOGA
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CAPITAL REGION JUST NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. OVER THE PAST HOUR...THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONTRACTING
AND WEAKENING. WE BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW...AND OF MORE CONCERN...POSSIBLE BLACK ICE AS AT LEAST
OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE...MAIN ROADS WERE "WET" WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO BELOW FREEZING.

AFTER DAYBREAK THIS FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE SPEWING SOME FLURRIES BUT
ALL AREAS WILL LEFT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. UPSTREAM...A LARGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH. AT THE SAME TIME...AN OCEAN STORM WILL
DEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS. WHILE THE MAIN STORM WILL SLIP WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTERACTION BETWEEN ITS CIRCULATION...THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH...WILL LIKELY INDUCE A TROWAL WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR
EAST THIS STEADY SNOW GETS. PAST EXPERIENCES HAVE INDICATED THAT
OFTEN TIMES...THIS SETUP PRODUCES STEADY SNOW FURTHER WESTWARD THAN
MOST MODELS INDICATE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN ALL OF THIS.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN...WHERE ITS WESTERN ENDS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHO GETS MEASURABLE SNOW AND WHO DOESN`T. WE EXPECT THE
SHIELD TO END UP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAYBE AT TAD FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN
INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 280938
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
538 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A
LITTLE SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...WE ARE STILL WITH A PESKY AREA OF SNOW...THE
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SARATOGA
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CAPITAL REGION JUST NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. OVER THE PAST HOUR...THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONTRACTING
AND WEAKENING. WE BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW...AND OF MORE CONCERN...POSSIBLE BLACK ICE AS AT LEAST
OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE...MAIN ROADS WERE "WET" WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO BELOW FREEZING.

AFTER DAYBREAK THIS FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE SPEWING SOME FLURRIES BUT
ALL AREAS WILL LEFT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. UPSTREAM...A LARGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH. AT THE SAME TIME...AN OCEAN STORM WILL
DEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS. WHILE THE MAIN STORM WILL SLIP WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTERACTION BETWEEN ITS CIRCULATION...THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH...WILL LIKELY INDUCE A TROWAL WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR
EAST THIS STEADY SNOW GETS. PAST EXPERIENCES HAVE INDICATED THAT
OFTEN TIMES...THIS SETUP PRODUCES STEADY SNOW FURTHER WESTWARD THAN
MOST MODELS INDICATE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN ALL OF THIS.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN...WHERE ITS WESTERN ENDS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHO GETS MEASURABLE SNOW AND WHO DOESN`T. WE EXPECT THE
SHIELD TO END UP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAYBE AT TAD FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN
INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A
LITTLE SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...WE ARE STILL WITH A PESKY AREA OF SNOW...THE
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SARATOGA
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CAPITAL REGION JUST NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. OVER THE PAST HOUR...THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONTRACTING
AND WEAKENING. WE BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW...AND OF MORE CONCERN...POSSIBLE BLACK ICE AS AT LEAST
OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE...MAIN ROADS WERE "WET" WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO BELOW FREEZING.

AFTER DAYBREAK THIS FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE SPEWING SOME FLURRIES BUT
ALL AREAS WILL LEFT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. UPSTREAM...A LARGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH. AT THE SAME TIME...AN OCEAN STORM WILL
DEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS. WHILE THE MAIN STORM WILL SLIP WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTERACTION BETWEEN ITS CIRCULATION...THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH...WILL LIKELY INDUCE A TROWAL WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR
EAST THIS STEADY SNOW GETS. PAST EXPERIENCES HAVE INDICATED THAT
OFTEN TIMES...THIS SETUP PRODUCES STEADY SNOW FURTHER WESTWARD THAN
MOST MODELS INDICATE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN ALL OF THIS.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN...WHERE ITS WESTERN ENDS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHO GETS MEASURABLE SNOW AND WHO DOESN`T. WE EXPECT THE
SHIELD TO END UP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAYBE AT TAD FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN
INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 280900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A
LITTLE SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...WE ARE STILL WITH A PESKY AREA OF SNOW...THE
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SARATOGA
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CAPITAL REGION JUST NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. OVER THE PAST HOUR...THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONTRACTING
AND WEAKENING. WE BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW...AND OF MORE CONCERN...POSSIBLE BLACK ICE AS AT LEAST
OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE...MAIN ROADS WERE "WET" WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO BELOW FREEZING.

AFTER DAYBREAK THIS FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE SPEWING SOME FLURRIES BUT
ALL AREAS WILL LEFT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. UPSTREAM...A LARGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH. AT THE SAME TIME...AN OCEAN STORM WILL
DEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS. WHILE THE MAIN STORM WILL SLIP WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTERACTION BETWEEN ITS CIRCULATION...THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH...WILL LIKELY INDUCE A TROWAL WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR
EAST THIS STEADY SNOW GETS. PAST EXPERIENCES HAVE INDICATED THAT
OFTEN TIMES...THIS SETUP PRODUCES STEADY SNOW FURTHER WESTWARD THAN
MOST MODELS INDICATE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN ALL OF THIS.

WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.

A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN...WHERE ITS WESTERN ENDS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHO GETS MEASURABLE SNOW AND WHO DOESN`T. WE EXPECT THE
SHIELD TO END UP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAYBE AT TAD FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN
INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.

IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT PUSHES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN
NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND
SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY BUT DROPPING TO
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT PUSHES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN
NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND
SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY BUT DROPPING TO
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT PUSHES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN
NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND
SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY BUT DROPPING TO
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT PUSHES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN
NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND
SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY BUT DROPPING TO
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 280606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARRWO BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. TUESDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 280606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARRWO BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. TUESDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARRWO BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. TUESDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARRWO BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. TUESDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARRWO BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. TUESDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARRWO BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.

AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. TUESDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 280508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.

SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.


AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 280239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...THE COMBINATION OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SETTLING SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...HAS ALLOWED AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO BLOSSOM FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SO...HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA EXTENDING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT-2 AM...THEN TRENDED THE
POPS DOWNWARD THEREAFTER AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN VALLEY AREAS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
WARM...WITH TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE MID 30S OR WARMER...ACCUMS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE AMTS CLOSER TO AN INCH WOULD BE FAVORED ON COLDER
SURFACES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH MAINLY A DUSTING TO HALF INCH EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS.

ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BE WET INITIALLY...BUT AS TEMPS FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING...SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THIS AREA OF SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO EXTEND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL TACONICS...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES...WHERE ACCUMS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH
SETTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 280239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...THE COMBINATION OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SETTLING SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...HAS ALLOWED AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO BLOSSOM FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SO...HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA EXTENDING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT-2 AM...THEN TRENDED THE
POPS DOWNWARD THEREAFTER AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN VALLEY AREAS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
WARM...WITH TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE MID 30S OR WARMER...ACCUMS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE AMTS CLOSER TO AN INCH WOULD BE FAVORED ON COLDER
SURFACES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH MAINLY A DUSTING TO HALF INCH EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS.

ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BE WET INITIALLY...BUT AS TEMPS FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING...SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THIS AREA OF SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO EXTEND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL TACONICS...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES...WHERE ACCUMS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH
SETTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SCREEN IS MOSTLY CLEAR. JUST SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER SOUTHERN
RI AND ANOTHER AREA STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET. ALSO SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE CATSKILLS AND
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT ECHOES AT 10 PM...AND BASED ON 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT. THE 00Z HRRR SUGGESTS ROUGHLY 08Z TO 12Z WITH FOCUS
ON RI AND EASTERN CT WITH EXPANSION INTO MASS FROM WORCESTER EAST
TO BOSTON AND TAUNTON BY 12Z. THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE THE CENTRAL
HILLS FROM WORCESTER TO NORTHEAST CT.

BASED ON THIS WE HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF POPS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVERALL AND MOST PLACES AFTER 3 AM.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE INITIALLY TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION.
OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT AN INCH OR LESS FROM SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N 06-08Z. POCKETS OF
IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER 08Z...LOWEST
ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI/NORTHEAST CT. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
3 AM.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 272352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SW
VT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 272352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SW
VT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 272352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SW
VT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 272352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SW
VT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
AND IS HEADING EASTWARD. WITH A S-SW FLOW IN PLACE...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS STREAMING UP THE COAST...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN
PLACE.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THIS EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...A
COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
AND IS HEADING EASTWARD. WITH A S-SW FLOW IN PLACE...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS STREAMING UP THE COAST...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN
PLACE.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THIS EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...A
COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
AND IS HEADING EASTWARD. WITH A S-SW FLOW IN PLACE...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS STREAMING UP THE COAST...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN
PLACE.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THIS EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...A
COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
AND IS HEADING EASTWARD. WITH A S-SW FLOW IN PLACE...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS STREAMING UP THE COAST...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN
PLACE.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THIS EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...A
COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
AND IS HEADING EASTWARD. WITH A S-SW FLOW IN PLACE...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS STREAMING UP THE COAST...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN
PLACE.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THIS EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...A
COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THIS
EXPECTED -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 271732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH A SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER
THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS
EAST OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 271342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
942 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 942 AM EDT...STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE DRY MUCH OF THE TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
942 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 942 AM EDT...STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE DRY MUCH OF THE TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 271342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
942 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 942 AM EDT...STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE DRY MUCH OF THE TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 271100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 520 AM EDT...PCPN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE NUMBER 2 MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WITH RAINFALL MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED INTO NEW YORK
STATE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A TALE OF TWO COLD FRONTS. COLD FRONT NUMBER
ONE HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO WHICH IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WITHASSOCIATED VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 271100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 520 AM EDT...PCPN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE NUMBER 2 MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WITH RAINFALL MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED INTO NEW YORK
STATE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A TALE OF TWO COLD FRONTS. COLD FRONT NUMBER
ONE HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO WHICH IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WITHASSOCIATED VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 271100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 520 AM EDT...PCPN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE NUMBER 2 MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WITH RAINFALL MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED INTO NEW YORK
STATE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A TALE OF TWO COLD FRONTS. COLD FRONT NUMBER
ONE HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO WHICH IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WITHASSOCIATED VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 271100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 520 AM EDT...PCPN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE NUMBER 2 MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WITH RAINFALL MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED INTO NEW YORK
STATE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A TALE OF TWO COLD FRONTS. COLD FRONT NUMBER
ONE HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO WHICH IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WITHASSOCIATED VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 270924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
524 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 520 AM EDT...PCPN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE NUMBER 2 MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WITH RAINFALL MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED INTO NEW YORK
STATE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A TALE OF TWO COLD FRONTS. COLD FRONT NUMBER
ONE HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO WHICH IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WITHASSOCIATED VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING WITH A
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF KPOU. KGFL AND KPSF
CONTINUE TO HAVE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IFR VSBYS AT
KGFL...AND IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. KPOU HAS RISEN TO VFR
LEVELS...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK IN BETWEEN 06Z-10Z WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURNING. KPSF WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 12Z. THE TREND FOR KALB/KGFL WILL BE
FOR HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS BY 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME
LINGERING HIGH MVFR CIGS ARE KPSF. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM
AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL BE COMMON. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER
BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 20Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 270924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
524 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 520 AM EDT...PCPN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE NUMBER 2 MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WITH RAINFALL MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED INTO NEW YORK
STATE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A TALE OF TWO COLD FRONTS. COLD FRONT NUMBER
ONE HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO WHICH IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WITHASSOCIATED VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING WITH A
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF KPOU. KGFL AND KPSF
CONTINUE TO HAVE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IFR VSBYS AT
KGFL...AND IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. KPOU HAS RISEN TO VFR
LEVELS...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK IN BETWEEN 06Z-10Z WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURNING. KPSF WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 12Z. THE TREND FOR KALB/KGFL WILL BE
FOR HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS BY 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME
LINGERING HIGH MVFR CIGS ARE KPSF. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM
AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL BE COMMON. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER
BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 20Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 270924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
524 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 520 AM EDT...PCPN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE NUMBER 2 MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WITH RAINFALL MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED INTO NEW YORK
STATE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A TALE OF TWO COLD FRONTS. COLD FRONT NUMBER
ONE HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO WHICH IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WITHASSOCIATED VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM E