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000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 222313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE
TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE
TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE
TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE
VERY DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENOUGH
SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS WED
NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS IF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE
VERY DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENOUGH
SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS WED
NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS IF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE
VERY DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENOUGH
SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS WED
NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS IF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KALY 222008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.  AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 408 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST. OUR REGION HAS BEEN IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OFF THE REGION OVER
THE MIDWEST...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

IN ADDITION...STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND
AND CLEARING SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY FROST IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. IF CLOUDS
WIND UP HANGING AROUND LONGER OR THE WIND KEEPS UP A LITTLE LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.  AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 408 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST. OUR REGION HAS BEEN IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OFF THE REGION OVER
THE MIDWEST...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

IN ADDITION...STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND
AND CLEARING SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY FROST IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. IF CLOUDS
WIND UP HANGING AROUND LONGER OR THE WIND KEEPS UP A LITTLE LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 221747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

QUITE A CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AT SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HAVE NOW
MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY WEST WINDS ADVECTING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE BLYR WARMS AND DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT
THROUGH ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL
THE UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TO THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY
MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO
WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

QUITE A CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AT SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HAVE NOW
MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY WEST WINDS ADVECTING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE BLYR WARMS AND DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT
THROUGH ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL
THE UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TO THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY
MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO
WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS SW MA AND NW CT.
THIS CLEARING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AND ALSO
A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPING W/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS. CLOUDS REMAIN
PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS SW MA AND NW CT.
THIS CLEARING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AND ALSO
A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPING W/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS. CLOUDS REMAIN
PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 220752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA
YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT THROUGH
ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE
UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S PROGRESSION TO
THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

...DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

...9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA
YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT THROUGH
ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE
UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S PROGRESSION TO
THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

...DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

...9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W AS
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET SUPPORTS RAPID PRES RISES TO THE W AND FALLING
TO THE E AS LOW PRES SLIDES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SHIFT HAS
LEAD TO A DRYING TREND AND REDUCTION IN THE OVERALL FOG COVERAGE.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SPS/S AND ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING
THOUGH AS THE ACTUAL FRONT IS NOW ONLY JUST E OF THE CT VALLEY
AND WILL TAKE 3-6 MORE HOURS TO CLEAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST MAINLY
ON TRACK AS REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY AS THEY REACH THE
DOWNSLOPING IN THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KALY 220533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND 4 AM...ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT WINDS BECOME...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 AM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH...ESP TOWARD AND AFTER 5 AM.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER 5
AM...AS THE FRONT AND UPPER IMPULSE PASS THROUGH...AND WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALIGN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
AND SOME GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND 4 AM...ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT WINDS BECOME...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 AM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH...ESP TOWARD AND AFTER 5 AM.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER 5
AM...AS THE FRONT AND UPPER IMPULSE PASS THROUGH...AND WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALIGN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
AND SOME GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN LOST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THOUGH ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN LOST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THOUGH ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 212307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
 ENGLAND COAST***

7 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED DIURNAL-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SUNDOWN. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WERE
STILL IN BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE HEADING NORTH. AREA OF STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAD
FORMED...AT MARSHFIELD AND FALMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST MA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. IF
SO...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE VERY MUGGY
AIRMASS CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OR POPS AT THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FIELD/FRANK
MARINE...FIELD/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 212307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
 ENGLAND COAST***

7 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED DIURNAL-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SUNDOWN. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WERE
STILL IN BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE HEADING NORTH. AREA OF STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAD
FORMED...AT MARSHFIELD AND FALMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST MA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. IF
SO...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE VERY MUGGY
AIRMASS CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OR POPS AT THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FIELD/FRANK
MARINE...FIELD/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 212107
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...A BROKEN TO SOLID LIVE OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WAS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AND
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY BE DECREASING AS IT MOVES THROUGH MOST OF TH
ALBANY FORECAST...SO THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. WHILE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE THE LOWEST WITH ONLY 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR EARLY TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ALL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM













000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 211806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WAS DRY AT A GIVEN LOCATION...BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS SYNOPTIC
RAIN WAS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THE EVENING
HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT BACK ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI...BUT IF IT DOES SHOULD BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EVEN NEAR 80 IN A FEW
LOCALES.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT.  PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  JUST A
LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY AS
A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WAS DRY AT A GIVEN LOCATION...BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS SYNOPTIC
RAIN WAS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THE EVENING
HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT BACK ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI...BUT IF IT DOES SHOULD BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EVEN NEAR 80 IN A FEW
LOCALES.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT.  PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  JUST A
LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY AS
A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 211455
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1055 AM UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH/NORTH CENTRAL MA AT LATE MORNING.  THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...BUT THERE STILL WERE PEEKS OF SUN
AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN
LOCATION.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER THOUGH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA
TOUCH 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211455
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1055 AM UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH/NORTH CENTRAL MA AT LATE MORNING.  THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...BUT THERE STILL WERE PEEKS OF SUN
AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN
LOCATION.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER THOUGH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA
TOUCH 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN A LINE FROM SW CT
INTO SE NH. THIS AS THE OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF WEAKENS.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT SHOWERS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MORNING ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THESE MAY SLIDE ACROSS SE MA LATE
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE W THROUGH EVENING. MAY SEE BREAKS
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN A LINE FROM SW CT
INTO SE NH. THIS AS THE OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF WEAKENS.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT SHOWERS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MORNING ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THESE MAY SLIDE ACROSS SE MA LATE
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE W THROUGH EVENING. MAY SEE BREAKS
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KALY 211020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KBOX 210814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT
AND WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT
EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN
MA TOWARD 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 210701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 210701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 210701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 210701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KALY 210522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK WAS EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION AROUND H925. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NYC/LI REGION AND APPROACHING NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO ATLANTIC
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 210522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK WAS EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION AROUND H925. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NYC/LI REGION AND APPROACHING NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO ATLANTIC
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK WAS EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION AROUND H925. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NYC/LI REGION AND APPROACHING NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO ATLANTIC
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY IFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE GRAZING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCSH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 210506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK WAS EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION AROUND H925. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NYC/LI REGION AND APPROACHING NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO ATLANTIC
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY IFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE GRAZING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCSH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 210243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1043 PM EDT...STRATUS CLOUDS JUST NOW STARTING TO INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A THICKER CANOPY MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MENTION
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL INDICATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY IFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE GRAZING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCSH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1043 PM EDT...STRATUS CLOUDS JUST NOW STARTING TO INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A THICKER CANOPY MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MENTION
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL INDICATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY IFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE GRAZING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCSH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1043 PM EDT...STRATUS CLOUDS JUST NOW STARTING TO INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A THICKER CANOPY MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MENTION
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL INDICATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY IFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE GRAZING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCSH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1043 PM EDT...STRATUS CLOUDS JUST NOW STARTING TO INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A THICKER CANOPY MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MENTION
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL INDICATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY IFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE GRAZING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCSH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 210149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
949 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
949 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99




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