[top]
000
FXUS61 KALY 190015
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
815 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES
ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PRESSES SOUTHWARD...WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
AT NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND WET GROUND.
AS OF 415 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUES TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE NYS AND WESTERN CT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND DUTCHESS CO. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN CAST CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS...OR ANY
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
FURTHER NORTH...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN...AND
WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS TO AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE
CO...WEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH HIGH CHC FURTHER S AND
E. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS FAR SE AREAS FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS TO
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE LATER TONIGHT. FOR MIN TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...ESP GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND ALSO WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.
FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PRESSES SOUTHWARD...WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER WITH THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND WET GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT KPSF AND KPOU OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT AT KPSF. AT KALB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE A
PERIOD OVERNIGHT. AT KGFL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED T DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
KGFL.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE BL LATE NIGHT
FOG AT KGFL/KPSF. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM/IAA
[top]
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182331
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WHICH IS IN A LINE ROUGHLY FROM NASHUA NEW HAMPSHIRE TO
WESTFIELD MASS. THE BEST PWATS ARE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA MORE
IN LINE WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OUT OF THESE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FLOODING WITH THEM. AS MENTIONED...THERE IS QUITE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
BLOCK ISLAND AND NANTUCKET. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NANTUCKET THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL THOUGH THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS N
MA/S NH...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH
PATCHY FOG. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER
SHOWER MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182210
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
615 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...DROPPING
HARTFORD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT AND ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT
PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THESE AREAS...OR DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY. FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.
NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182134
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
534 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.
NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182037
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.
NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT
000
FXUS61 KALY 182016
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. OUR WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUES TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE NYS AND WESTERN CT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND DUTCHESS CO. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN CAST CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS...OR ANY
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
FURTHER NORTH...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN...AND
WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS TO AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE
CO...WEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH HIGH CHC FURTHER S AND
E. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS FAR SE AREAS FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS TO
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE LATER TONIGHT. FOR MIN TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...ESP GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND ALSO WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.
FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE EXITED THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS...AND SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
KPOU AFTER 20Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CORE OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL AFFECT KPOU SO INDICATING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 20Z-22Z AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER
SHOWERS IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS AND PUTTING VCSH FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE LIGHTER SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT AS WELL WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG FORMATION. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THAT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KPOU.
WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND NORTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...MAINLY SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. THIS COULD LEAD
TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET WEATHER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181941
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RECEIVED A
REPORT OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN WESTMINSTER MA
/NORTHERN WORCESTER CTY/ FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
AS THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHIFT S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND HIGHER PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES/...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS STILL RATHER SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COULD SEE
LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. BIG
CONCERN WITH IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
FLOODING***
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS ACROSS N MA/S NH AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO CENTRAL/S MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181818
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
218 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RECEIVED A
REPORT OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN WESTMINSTER MA
/NORTHERN WORCESTER CTY/ FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
AS THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHIFT S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND HIGHER PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES/...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS STILL RATHER SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COULD SEE
LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. BIG
CONCERN WITH IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
FLOODING***
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS ACROSS N MA/S NH AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO CENTRAL/S MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KALY 181729
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD...NOW APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. TEMPS
TO THE NORTH HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S
WITHIN POCKETS OF RAIN COOLED AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 80 IN VALLEYS AND 70S
ELSEWHERE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SB CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS NW CT/SW MA AND THE SE
CATSKILLS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 40-45 KT IN THIS
REGION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER...ALONG WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO
INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WITHIN TSTMS. WILL STILL
HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT FOR ANY POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD CO
CT...AS THE SFC FRONT POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH AN INCOMING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...THIS MAY ACT TO SLOW
DOWN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY. PONDING OF WATER
IN LOW LYING/POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS COULD EASILY OCCUR WHERE
TRAINING ECHOES DEVELOP.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS
NORTH...BUT REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX
TEMPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL GIVEN THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPS MAY STILL RISE 3-5
DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY AROUND 21Z IF SOME THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS CAN OCCUR FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL GENERALLY ONLY RECOVER
INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN SOME VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...EXPECT CURRENT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO AND THROUGH THE 70S...AND PERHAPS INTO THE 60S
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE EXITED THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS...AND SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
KPOU AFTER 20Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CORE OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL AFFECT KPOU SO INDICATING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 20Z-22Z AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER
SHOWERS IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS AND PUTTING VCSH FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE LIGHTER SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT AS WELL WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG FORMATION. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THAT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KPOU.
WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND NORTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 181450
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS IN THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME HEATING IN SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...BUT NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY
SO NO SEVERE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AND WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SO SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIX
COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG STILL OCCURRING AT KPSF WITH VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS.
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND TEMPOS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 17Z-18Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED
THERE. BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND
ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO PART OF THE
EVENING FOR KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD. PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181329
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
928 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
925 AM UPDATE...
***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
FLOODING***
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WERE IN PLACE AT MID MORNING
TO THE NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME PEEKS OF
SUN. TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...THERE WAS A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS MAY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.
SO AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT WILL REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR
VALLEY TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE.
THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY
INTO EVENING. ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
WITH +RA/TSRA.
VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KALY 181125
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING TO MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS TO SOUTHERN AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
ELSE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG STILL OCCURRING AT KPSF WITH VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS.
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND TEMPOS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 17Z-18Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED
THERE. BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND
ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO PART OF THE
EVENING FOR KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD. PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181107
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
MILD MORNING IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE SUN AT 7 AM AND THIS
WILL LIKELY HOLD OUR TEMPS IN THE M70S TODAY...ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS INSTABILITY AND
THUS A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH
00Z ECMWF AND 03Z SREF ONLY OFFER 500-1000J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...MUCH LESS THAN THE 1500-2000J/KG FROM MON AFTN. DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT/RI AND
INTERIOR MA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO FIRE ON...HOWEVER NEW
GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST TO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 21Z-03Z ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE PWATS INCREASE TO +1 TO +2 STD
FROM CLIMO. THUS ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN
THE TIMEFRAME HERE 21Z-03Z COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY COMMUTE.
SO DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR THE LACK OF SB INSTABILITY
SUGGEST A LOWER RISK TODAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS THINKING LINES UP NICELY WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
WITH JUST GENERAL THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ERODE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO REMOVE TSTMS THIS MORNING AND CONFINE TO
AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
TODAY...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPER COLD POOL WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RENEW.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT...BULK SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED WITH VALUES
OF AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT INDICATING FAVORABILITY TO LINE RATHER THAN DISCREET
THUNDERSTORMS /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY/. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT INDICATION OF TURNING WITHIN 0-3 KM...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...THE 0Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING IS INDICATIVE OF A PRIME ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND H9 UP TO H6.
BUT THE OUTCOMES LOOK RATHER MESSY. THE POTENTIAL EARLY INITIATION
CLOSER TO MIDDAY AS INDICATED BY THE 18.0Z WRF AND 18.04Z HRRR/RUC
SUGGEST LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO LESS DESTABILIZATION. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECTING MULTI-CELLULAR AND LINE-ECHO
WAVE PATTERN THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN. THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINERS UTILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH PERCEPTIBLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.
FEEL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SURELY TO BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...HAZARDOUS FOR MOTORISTS. EVENING
COMMUTE WILL BE UNDER GREATEST THREAT. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL APPEND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 2
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR
VALLEY TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE.
THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY
INTO EVENING. ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
WITH +RA/TSRA.
VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...SIPPRELL
000
FXUS61 KALY 181001
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING TO MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS TO SOUTHERN AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
ELSE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...T
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB.
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL
000
FXUS61 KALY 180846
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB.
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180805
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME PROBLEMATIC. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF WITH
SUNRISE.
TODAY...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPER COLD POOL WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RENEW.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT...BULK SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED WITH VALUES
OF AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT INDICATING FAVORABILITY TO LINE RATHER THAN DISCREET
THUNDERSTORMS /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY/. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT INDICATION OF TURNING WITHIN 0-3 KM...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...THE 0Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING IS INDICATIVE OF A PRIME ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND H9 UP TO H6.
BUT THE OUTCOMES LOOK RATHER MESSY. THE POTENTIAL EARLY INITIATION
CLOSER TO MIDDAY AS INDICATED BY THE 18.0Z WRF AND 18.04Z HRRR/RUC
SUGGEST LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO LESS DESTABILIZATION. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECTING MULTI-CELLULAR AND LINE-ECHO
WAVE PATTERN THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN. THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINERS UTILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH PERCEPTIBLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.
FEEL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SURELY TO BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...HAZARDOUS FOR MOTORISTS. EVENING
COMMUTE WILL BE UNDER GREATEST THREAT. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL APPEND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 2
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR VALLEY
TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE. THEN ATTENTION
FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY INTO EVENING.
ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH +RA/TSRA.
VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF
000
FXUS61 KALY 180558
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS SO HAVE UPDATED
TO INCLUDE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB.
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 180447
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS SO HAVE UPDATED
TO INCLUDE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK E-W CDFNT CURRENTLY ACROSS N TIER WILL STALL OVERNIGHT. TUES
IT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
MAINLY S PORTIONS OF FCA.
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
WITH MVFR CONDS PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT HAD -SHRA/TSTMS MON AFTN
AND WHERE TD ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER (50S) LIKE ACROSS S TIER OF
FCA. CANT RULE OUT PATCHY IFR ARND DAYBREAK.
TUES WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABV 050 WITH MVFR
CONDS IN SCT-BKN SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY FROM ALB SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT E NORTH
AND REMAINING VARIABLE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SNYDER/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180220
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE. SOME RENEWED
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WHILE
THE 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING EXHIBITS THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BROADER SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE CYCLONIC
CONTAINS LITTLE LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL ENERGY...NOR SUPPORT FROM UPPER-LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS. QUIET AND DRY FORECAST INTO MORNING...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO COVER THE BASES.
SO ATTENTION TURNS TO OTHER POTENTIAL THREATS...NAMELY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.
11-3.9 SATELLITE SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WITH OBSCURING MID-HIGH CLOUD. HRRR/RUC HAS
DONE VERY WELL THIS EVENING WITH HANDLING EARLIER THUNDERSTORM
REMNANTS. MODEL FORECAST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS DRIFTING
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE TOWARDS MORNING...AND WILL
FOLLOW SUIT ACCORDINGLY. LOW STRATUS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE.
ALSO...AM CONCERNED OVER THE ANTECEDENT RAINS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES DROP...BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE SHORES. WHILE THE HRRR/RUC DOES NOT FEEL THIS TO
BE THE CASE...WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO THE DEWPOINT ALLOWING FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE
MA TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY ENDS SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF
000
FXUS61 KALY 180106
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
906 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CDFNT STRADDLES N TIER...AND IT CONTS TO TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA
AND PATCHY CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED ACROSS FCA
AS WK BUBBLE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN. FCA WILL SEE A LULL OVERNIGHT
WITH FAIR CONDS. FRONT WILL RESUME ITS DRIFT S TWRD MORNING.
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK E-W CDFNT CURRENTLY ACROSS N TIER WILL STALL OVERNIGHT. TUES
IT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
MAINLY S PORTIONS OF FCA.
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
WITH MVFR CONDS PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT HAD -SHRA/TSTMS MON AFTN
AND WHERE TD ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER (50S) LIKE ACROSS S TIER OF
FCA. CANT RULE OUT PATCHY IFR ARND DAYBREAK.
TUES WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABV 050 WITH MVFR
CONDS IN SCT-BKN SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY FROM ALB SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT E NORTH
AND REMAINING VARIABLE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SNYDER/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172345
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
THE REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED. A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST
MA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS MOVING OFF THE COAST.
A FEW OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE MAY WORK THERE
WAY INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY...AREAL
COVERAGE OF THEM WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD END UP DRY
ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS WITH THE WET GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS SOMETIME TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KALY 172322
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
REDEVELOPED ACROSS OTSEGO CO NY...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS FOR INTENSITY...AND
ALSO RAINFALL RATES...AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE MAIN SFC FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO OUR N AND W TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
A LULL IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL INCREASES POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK E-W CDFNT CURRENTLY ACROSS N TIER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TO MHWK VLY. TUES IT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY S PORTIONS OF FCA.
CURRENT ISOLD -SHRA/SHOULD END NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE A FEW
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR CONDS
PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT HAD -SHRA/TSTMS MON AFTN AND WHERE TD ARE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER (50S) LIKE ACROSS S TIER OF FCA. CANT RULE OUT
PATCHY IFR ARND DAYBREAK.
TUES WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABV 050 WITH MVFR
CONDS IN SCT-BKN SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY FROM ALB SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT E NORTH
AND REMAINING VARIABLE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SNYDER/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172236
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN
CONNECTICUT NORTHWARD NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF PEA TO 3/4 INCH HAIL...BUT HAS BEEN
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND. HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO RESULTING IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
THE LINE OF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT MOST OF
THE REGION AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SO WE
EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. THEY MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
DIMNISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATE TONIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE DRY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KALY 172220
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
REDEVELOPED ACROSS OTSEGO CO NY...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS FOR INTENSITY...AND
ALSO RAINFALL RATES...AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE MAIN SFC FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO OUR N AND W TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
A LULL IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL INCREASES POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACKBUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL MENTION VCTS STARTING BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...BUT
SCATTERED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY TEMPO FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE STORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TRACKED CLOSELY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 172107
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM ALBANY AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...WESTERN
MA AND FAR NW CT. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING S/E OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SB CAPES ARE A BIT LOWER IN THIS AREA...GENERALLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS A BIT
WEAKER...ALTHOUGH STILL RESPECTABLE AT 40-45 KT. STILL EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THIS AREA...PERHAPS WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS...ESP DUE TO STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S. THIS MAY ENHANCE DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL...DESPITE SLIGHTLY WEAKER/MORE SHALLOW CORES COMPARED TO EARLIER.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE MAIN SFC FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO OUR N AND W TO
SEE IF WE NEED TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
A LULL IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL INCREASES POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACKBUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL MENTION VCTS STARTING BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...BUT
SCATTERED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY TEMPO FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE STORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TRACKED CLOSELY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172039
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING***
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE
MLCAPE VALUES WERE ONLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG SINCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SO FAR...THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MANY THUNDERSTORMS STRUGGLING TO ATTAIN SEVERE
LIMITS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS DO SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOME SEVERE. STILL
THINK THAT THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ACROSS THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE A FEW DEGREES LIKE
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW. STRONG SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SO IF WE CAN INCREASE THE CAPES A BIT
MORE IT MAY NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET A FEW GOOD STORMS GOING.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATE TONIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE DRY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171801
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
9 PM THIS EVENING***
2 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...KJC/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171745
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING***
1225 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MARCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 1 PM. THE ACTIVITY WILL FIRST AFFECT
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO
THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES... UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING
HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSRUE OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND
BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KALY 171735
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED...WITH SBCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. FURTHERMORE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. THIS BOUNDARY...OR JUST AHEAD OF
IT...SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SFC BASED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT...GIVEN STRONG 0-6 KM
SHEAR...WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KT...UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/FORM BOWING SEGMENTS AND MAY RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT
AND BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION...BEFORE CONGEALING...SOME MORE
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ATTAIN MID LEVEL ROTATION AND ALLOW FOR LARGE
HAIL FORMATION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SINK FURTHER S AND E LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD OR AROUND
SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL MENTION VCTS STARTING BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...BUT
SCATTERED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY TEMPO FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE STORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TRACKED CLOSELY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 171733
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED...WITH SBCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. FURTHERMORE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. THIS BOUNDARY...OR JUST AHEAD OF
IT...SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SFC BASED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT...GIVEN STRONG 0-6 KM
SHEAR...WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KT...UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/FORM BOWING SEGMENTS AND MAY RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT
AND BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION...BEFORE CONGEALING...SOME MORE
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ATTAIN MID LEVEL ROTATION AND ALLOW FOR LARGE
HAIL FORMATION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SINK FURTHER S AND E LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD OR AROUND
SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 17Z-18Z...THEN PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING FROM 21Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 171655
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT...MUCH OF THE REGION IS NOW WITHIN SPC/S SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED...WITH SBCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. FURTHERMORE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. THIS BOUNDARY...OR JUST AHEAD OF
IT...SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SFC BASED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT...GIVEN STRONG 0-6 KM
SHEAR...WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KT...UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/FORM BOWING SEGMENTS AND MAY RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT
AND BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION...BEFORE CONGEALING...SOME MORE
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ATTAIN MID LEVEL ROTATION AND ALLOW FOR LARGE
HAIL FORMATION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SINK FURTHER S AND E LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET. AREAS OF
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 17Z-18Z...THEN PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING FROM 21Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171629
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING***
1225 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MARCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 1 PM. THE ACTIVITY WILL FIRST AFFECT
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KALY 171407
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WEAK BROAD COLD FRONT...THAT WILLONLY GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS AFTERNOON...AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT INSTABILITY...AND SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT NOT MUCH OF A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR LOW LEVEL FORCING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS...AND THEN IN AREAS OF TERRAIN SUCH AS THE ADIRONDACKS...
CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE
STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...BUT SHOULD ALSO TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BORDER ON SEVERE. SO...ADDED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE STILL
WET...BUT SLOWLY DRYING GROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND
CURRENT FORECASTED LEVELS SO FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IF ANY.
PREV AFD BELOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 17Z-18Z...THEN PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING FROM 21Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171343
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM UPDATE...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING***
A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP FOR OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THE UPPER JET IS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 90 TO 100 KNOTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAS HIGH AS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD YIELD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVE THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT CAPE COMBINED WITH VERY
GOOD WIND FIELDS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL. THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING.
WE DID NOTICE THAT MANY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF A LACK OF FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THAT MAY ALLOW ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE
RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN LESS COMPETITION BETWEEN STORMS. IN FACT...A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.
THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND IF SOME
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171338
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM UPDATE...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING***
A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP FOR OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THE UPPER JET IS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 90 TO 100 KNOTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAS HIGH AS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD YIELD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVE THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT CAPE COMBINED WITH VERY
GOOD WIND FIELDS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL.
WE DID NOTICE THAT MANY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF A LACK OF FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THAT MAY ALLOW ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE
RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN LESS COMPETITION BETWEEN STORMS. IN FACT...A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.
THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND IF SOME
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KALY 171129
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM...NO SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE ALY FORECAST AREA
OR MOVING TOWARD. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD SHOWERS ARE NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH AREA RADARS ONLY
SHOWING ONE TSTM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS OF 415 AM. EXPECT
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AT SCATTERED LEVELS...SO HAVE FORECAST NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. GFS CAPE VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN NY...WHILE THE NAM IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH WERE WIND FIELDS WILL BE
WEAKER. HIGHER NAM VALUES RESULT FROM HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES IN HE
MODEL. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NY. OVERALL...SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT HIGH IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA AND HAVE NOT
HIGHLIGHTED ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE NAM AND THE MET MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE GFS AND
MAV GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELITE PICS...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS NOTED UNTIL LAKE HURON...SO EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MAV GUIDANCE LEVELS IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 17Z-18Z...THEN PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING FROM 21Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171125
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
CI SHIELD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT
LOTS OF MORNING SUNSHINE...WITH SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE KEY AND LATEST FORECASTS SUGGEST MLCAPES
OF 1000+ J/KG WHICH WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WX.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDES S WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KIND OF
BACK AND FORTH ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT RECENT RUNS ARE ALL
BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG
SBCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WITH SUNSHINE /WHICH IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY/. NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST HERE BUT IS KEYING
ON HIGHER DWPTS THAN MUCH OF THE MESOSCALE AND GFS/ECMWF
MODELS...SO LEANED AWAY FROM IT/S SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS BECAUSE DWPTS CLOSER TO THE MID 60S ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1500+ J/KG INSTEAD. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT ABOUT
6-6.5C/KM ALTHOUGH GFS HAS STEEPENED THESE SOMEWHAT.
WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AM NOTING UP TO 20-30 KT AND
40-50 KT OF SHEAR AT 0-3 AND 0-6 KM RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ONE MIGHT NORMALLY LOOK
FOR...THE SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO AT
LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS STRUCTURES. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT
D-CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HELD OFF ON HAIL THREAT /ALTHOUGH ITS
NON-ZERO/ DUE TO SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THEIR MAY BE A BIT OF A MID
LVL WARM LAYER LIMITING HAIL CAPE. PWAT VALUES OF 1.0 INCHES PLUS
COULD ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.
TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. MASS FIELDS SAYS THIS FIELD RIGHT AROUND PEAK
HEATING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING THIS WORDING AS NEW MESO-
SCALE GUIDANCE COMES IN AS THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG- SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KALY 170951
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM...NO SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE ALY FORECAST AREA
OR MOVING TOWARD. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD SHOWERS ARE NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH AREA RADARS ONLY
SHOWING ONE TSTM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS OF 415 AM. EXPECT
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AT SCATTERED LEVELS...SO HAVE FORECAST NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. GFS CAPE VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN NY...WHILE THE NAM IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH WERE WIND FIELDS WILL BE
WEAKER. HIGHER NAM VALUES RESULT FROM HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES IN HE
MODEL. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NY. OVERALL...SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT HIGH IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA AND HAVE NOT
HIGHLIGHTED ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE NAM AND THE MET MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE GFS AND
MAV GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELITE PICS...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS NOTED UNTIL LAKE HURON...SO EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MAV GUIDANCE LEVELS IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...SO WILL MENTION IFR IN A TEMPO. TRICKY CALL AT
KALB...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE MOVING THROUGH
JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TO STAY AWAY FROM KALB...BUT A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z.
SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO. SHOULD A HEAVIER SHOWER DEVELOP
THERE...THE CHANCES FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER WOULD INCREASE DUE
TO ADDED GROUND MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KPOU...OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH EXPECTED THERE. MORE CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR KPSF WITH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND WINDS MAINLY CALM...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME IFR CONDITIONS THERE AFTER 07Z. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR IFR.
ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11Z-12Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL
MENTION PROB30 FOR TSRA STARTING FROM EITHER 18Z-19Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 7-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE BRIEFLY GUSTS IN AND
NEAR ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 170838
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH AREA RADARS ONLY
SHOWING ONE TSTM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS OF 415 AM. EXPECT
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AT SCATTERED LEVELS...SO HAVE FORECAST NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. GFS CAPE VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN NY...WHILE THE NAM IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH WERE WIND FIELDS WILL BE
WEAKER. HIGHER NAM VALUES RESULT FROM HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES IN HE
MODEL. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NY. OVERALL...SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT HIGH IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA AND HAVE NOT
HIGHLIGHTED ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE NAM AND THE MET MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE GFS AND
MAV GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELITE PICS...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS NOTED UNTIL LAKE HURON...SO EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MAV GUIDANCE LEVELS IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...SO WILL MENTION IFR IN A TEMPO. TRICKY CALL AT
KALB...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE MOVING THROUGH
JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TO STAY AWAY FROM KALB...BUT A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z.
SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO. SHOULD A HEAVIER SHOWER DEVELOP
THERE...THE CHANCES FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER WOULD INCREASE DUE
TO ADDED GROUND MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KPOU...OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH EXPECTED THERE. MORE CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR KPSF WITH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND WINDS MAINLY CALM...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME IFR CONDITIONS THERE AFTER 07Z. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR IFR.
ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11Z-12Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL
MENTION PROB30 FOR TSRA STARTING FROM EITHER 18Z-19Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 7-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE BRIEFLY GUSTS IN AND
NEAR ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170749
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. ONLY REMNANTS ARE A FEW MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECT THAT THESE TOO WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WITH TIME THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH SUNRISE. WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND +13C
TODAY...THIS FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX THESE VALUES DOWN EASILY.
EXPECTING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S.
DWPTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...SO EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDES S WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KIND OF
BACK AND FORTH ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT RECENT RUNS ARE ALL BEGINNINGTO
CONVERGE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG SBCAPE BY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WITH SUNSHINE /WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY/. NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST HERE BUT IS KEYING ON HIGHER DWPTS
THAN MUCH OF THE MESOSCALE AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS...SO LEANED AWAY
FROM IT/S SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS BECAUSE
DWPTS CLOSER TO THE MID 60S ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1500+ J/KG
INSTEAD. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT ABOUT 6-6.5C/KM ALTHOUGH GFS
HAS STEEPENED THESE SOMEWHAT.
WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AM NOTING UP TO 20-30 KT AND
40-50 KT OF SHEAR AT 0-3 AND 0-6 KM RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ONE MIGHT NORMALLY LOOK
FOR...THE SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO AT
LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS STRUCTURES. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT
D-CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HELD OFF ON HAIL THREAT /ALTHOUGH ITS
NON-ZERO/ DUE TO SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THEIR MAY BE A BIT OF A MID
LVL WARM LAYER LIMITING HAIL CAPE. PWAT VALUES OF 1.0 INCHES PLUS
COULD ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.
TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. MASS FIELDS SAYS THIS FIELD RIGHT AROUND PEAK
HEATING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING THIS WORDING AS NEW MESO-
SCALE GUIDANCE COMES IN AS THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG- SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
FLOODSTAGE BY MID MORNING.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KALY 170551
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TO START THE WEEK...AND
THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...KENX AND KTYX RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW TSTMS FROM THE ALBANY AREA WEST/NORTHWEST
TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAIN THRUST OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THEN
TOWARDS BERKSHIRE COUNTY. WILL INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THESE AREAS...
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OR DRY POPS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMP GRIDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.
THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.
WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.
BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...SO WILL MENTION IFR IN A TEMPO. TRICKY CALL AT
KALB...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE MOVING THROUGH
JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TO STAY AWAY FROM KALB...BUT A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z.
SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO. SHOULD A HEAVIER SHOWER DEVELOP
THERE...THE CHANCES FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER WOULD INCREASE DUE
TO ADDED GROUND MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KPOU...OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH EXPECTED THERE. MORE CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR KPSF WITH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND WINDS MAINLY CALM...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME IFR CONDITIONS THERE AFTER 07Z. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR IFR.
ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11Z-12Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL
MENTION PROB30 FOR TSRA STARTING FROM EITHER 18Z-19Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 7-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE BRIEFLY GUSTS IN AND
NEAR ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170536
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
HIGHER DWPTS...POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IS A BIT HIGHER EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER AM NOTING WINDS ARE REMAINING ABOVE 5KT AT MANY
OBS SITES SO FOG WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE TYPICALLY PRONE
AREAS. OTHERWISE... A BIT MORE MILD AND MUGGY MORNING BUT WITH
SUNSHINE EXPECTED AT DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.
STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DURING TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS REGION.
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIGNALING BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS
QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NY STATE INTO PA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW. GENERAL W-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO ONLY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E BY ABOUT MID WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY W-NW FLOW ALONG WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. NOTING
INCREASING VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THEIR HANDLING OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT. WENT ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE
FRONT TO THE NW OF THE REGION...WHICH MEANS MODERATING TEMPS WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT.
DETAILS...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...
SECOND FRONT TENDING TO RUN PARALLEL TO THE W-SW UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING. WILL ALSO SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT E LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...SO FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW-SE
TUE NIGHT...THOUGH MAY LINGER INTO WED ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF NY STATE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL START OFF
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR WED...THEN WILL
REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY...SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO S-SW WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION.
MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
FRI AS WEAK TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT WEAKENS. MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LL MOISTURE TO KICK OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. ONLY MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH RETURN SW FLOW
IN PLACE AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES...COULD SEE WIDELY SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MAY SEE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH. AGAIN...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. N-NE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD ALONG WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT
SEAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 800 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
IN CT...
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KALY 170524
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TO START THE WEEK...AND
THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...KENX AND KTYX RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW TSTMS FROM THE ALBANY AREA WEST/NORTHWEST
TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAIN THRUST OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THEN
TOWARDS BERKSHIRE COUNTY. WILL INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THESE AREAS...
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OR DRY POPS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMP GRIDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.
THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.
WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.
BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAFS THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE SOME IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KGFL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KGFL LITTLE OR NO RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. THE LACK OF RAIN (TODAY) AND A LITTLE BREEZE BEHIND
THE TROUGH MIGHT PREVENT IFR FOG AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WE DID PLACE MVFR FOG IN WITH NO RESTRICTING CIGS OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE MORNING PEAK. CONFIDENCE OF THIS WAS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH
(ABOUT 70 PERCENT).
ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME RAIN DID FALL AT KGFL. ASSUMING NOT MUCH OF
BREEZE THIS EVENING...AND EVEN LESS OVERNIGHT...WE DECIDED TO TO
PLACE IFR FOG IN THAT TAF...BEGINNING AS TEMPO GROUP AT 04Z...THEN
PREVAILING FROM 06Z ON. AGAIN CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS MODERATE (NOT
HIGH)...ABOUT 60-70 PERCENT.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z MONDAY AS BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST PICKS UP TO 5-10KTS. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON (AFTER 21Z). FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) THAT ANY TAF SITES WOULD
SEE IFR OR EVEN MVFR WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDER.
OUTLOOK...
MON NITE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
000
FXUS61 KALY 170239
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FEW IF
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...WE ARE TRACKING A FEW CELLS WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST THAT HAVE WORKED OFF LAKE ONTARIO (AND BUFFALO ISSUED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR)...HAVE WEAKENED BUT NOT ENTIRELY AS THEY
APPROACH HERKIMER COUNTY. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE CELLS COULD HOLD
TOGETHER DOWN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT AS WEAK ONES.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE CLOUDS DID IN FACT DIMINISH AROUND THE REGION AND AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE USUAL
FOG PRONE PLACES.
FOR NOW...CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH 100 AM.
OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. LOOK FOR LOWS
AROUND 60 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.
THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.
WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.
BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAFS THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE SOME IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KGFL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KGFL LITTLE OR NO RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. THE LACK OF RAIN (TODAY) AND A LITTLE BREEZE BEHIND
THE TROUGH MIGHT PREVENT IFR FOG AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WE DID PLACE MVFR FOG IN WITH NO RESTRICTING CIGS OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE MORNING PEAK. CONFIDENCE OF THIS WAS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH
(ABOUT 70 PERCENT).
ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME RAIN DID FALL AT KGFL. ASSUMING NOT MUCH OF
BREEZE THIS EVENING...AND EVEN LESS OVERNIGHT...WE DECIDED TO TO
PLACE IFR FOG IN THAT TAF...BEGINNING AS TEMPO GROUP AT 04Z...THEN
PREVAILING FROM 06Z ON. AGAIN CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS MODERATE (NOT
HIGH)...ABOUT 60-70 PERCENT.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z MONDAY AS BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST PICKS UP TO 5-10KTS. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON (AFTER 21Z). FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) THAT ANY TAF SITES WOULD
SEE IFR OR EVEN MVFR WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDER.
OUTLOOK...
MON NITE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
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